2021 NY Jets Season Wins Preview

Man, oh man, is it tough being a Jets fan. It’s been a bumpy ride over the last few years, filled with hope and hype and then ultimately hearts getting crushed like a can on a drunk frat boy’s forehead. 

Things were looking up during preseason last year, then the actual season happened. Sure, there were a couple of incredible highlights, like the Jets burning into Los Angeles on December 20th and providing football fans with what may have been the biggest upset of the season, winning 23-20 on the road as massive, 17-point underdogs. Then, they followed up with a 23-16 point win over a solid Cleveland Browns team. Unfortunately, the Jets lost each of their previous 13 games that season, plus their final meeting against the Pats. 

Now the Jets have a hyped-up new offensive coordinator and a hot new rookie QB, and some veteran talent coming in at various positions. So, do we get pumped up at the thought of the Jets making a run at the AFC East now that the Pats are no longer top dogs? 

2021 Season Wins Totals in the AFC East

The NFL odds for how many games the Jets win during the 2021-2022 NFL regular season stands at O/U 6. This bodes well for NY Jets fans, as a betting line with 6 wins shows that the boys and girls in Las Vegas who create sports betting lines the world over have faith that the NY Jets will be about 200% better than last year. Well, that is something to be happy about. 

But how does the Jets’ projected six-win season compare to the rest of the division?

  • Buffalo Bills | O/U 10.5 wins
  • New England Patriots | O/U 9 wins
  • Miami Dolphins | O/U 9 wins
  • New York Jets | O/U 6 wins

As you can see, although it’s a step in the right direction, we shouldn’t be shouting 2021 division winners from the rooftops. The rest of the AFC East is still tough, and experts believe that each of the other three teams will have winning seasons. 

 

For the Buffalo Bills, the betting odds favor that Josh Allen and his squad crack the OVER, getting 11 wins or more (-130). In Patriot land, the odds also favor that the Pats get at least ten wins (-125). Down in Miami, the odds have the Fins -135 to win more than nine games. So, unfortunately, the Jets are still the redheaded stepchild of the Division. That said, they also have odds of -130 to go OVER 6 wins. This means bookies like the Jets to have a 7-win season! The odds that the Jets go UNDER 6 wins (meaning they only win five or less) are +110. 

Jets’ AFC East Division Odds

The Jets opened at +1300 to win the AFC East but have already fallen as more and more money comes in on the Buffalo Bills. Currently, the AFC East divisional futures are:

  1. Buffalo Bills                 -154
  2. Miami Dolphins           +325
  3. New England Patriots +350 
  4. New York Jets             +2000

So, at +2000, the Jets are a true longshot, but a tiny $10.00 bet would net you $200.00 if Green Machine ended up winning the division. That said, it isn’t likely. And I love to compare season wins against divisional odds because sometimes you find a glaring hole in the betting lines. This was the case a few years ago with the Packers. Unfortunately, it didn’t pan out because that was the year Rodgers went out for the season after that dirty hit.

Now let’s compare further with a look at the early spreads for each Jets game this upcoming season:

  • New York Jets at Carolina Panthers (-4.5, 43)
  • Patriots (-3, 42.5) at NY Jets
  • NY Jets at Broncos (-5.5, 42.5)
  • Titans (-2.5, 46.5) at NY Jets
  • NY Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons (-3, 47.5) in London, England
  • NY Jets at Patriots (-6, 44.5)
  • Bengals at NY Jets (-1, 47)
  • NY Jets at Colts (-8.5, 48)
  • Bills (-7, 48) at NY Jets
  • Dolphins (-3, 44) at NY Jets
  • NY Jets (-1, 47) at Texans
  • Eagles at NY Jets (-1.5, 45)
  • Saints (-3, 46.5) at NY Jets
  • NY Jets at Dolphins (-6.5, 45.5)
  • Jaguars at Jets (-1.5, 44.5)
  • Bucs (-8.5, 47) at NY Jets

As you can see, the Jets are only the favorites in four games. And not a single one of those games is by more than 1.5 points. This number doesn’t reflect well on the Jets’ chances to actually win seven games. They are likely to upset a good team or two, and if they manage to win these four, we have a six-win season. Still, we need seven wins to cash in on that season’s win total.

So with that in mind, my pick for the Jets wins in 2021 is UNDER the listed total of six.