2018 NFL Best Bets Against the Spread – Week Seven

Jake Benaquisto with his weekly Best Bets for the NFL column…

I finally picked some winners and went 3-2 against the spread last week. Shoutout to the Broncos for getting the last minute backdoor cover or else I would have gone 2-3. Here are a few takes as we head into week seven:

  1. I could not be more excited for the Jets / Vikings game this weekend. Minnesota is the much better team, but if the Jets win, you have to wonder if this team could make a run for the playoffs down the stretch.
  2. If there’s one team I cannot seem to figure out this season, it’s the Dallas Cowboys. Their offense has looked terrible in some games, but they absolutely destroyed the Jaguars last week. I’m interested to see how they do on the road against Washington on Sunday. 

Indianapolis -7.5 vs. Buffalo

This game has blow-out written all over it. The Colts may be 1-5, but they’ve competed and come close to winning in most of their losses. With T.Y. Hilton expected to return this week, Andrew Luck will have at least one dependable wide receiver to target. Meanwhile, the Bills just signed Derek Anderson to start at QB while Josh Allen is hurt. Good luck with that, Buffalo! Colts win 28-13.

Cleveland +3.5 at Tampa Bay

Even though they’re at home, I do not understand why this Buccaneers team is laying more than a field goal. Gerald McCoy and Vinny Curry are both out for this game, and Jameis is too inconsistent to put money on. I also like the Browns recent move to trade away Carlos Hyde, which means they’ll be featuring the rookie Nick Chubb and Duke Johnson more out of their backfield. Give me Cleveland to go on the road and upset the Bucs, 21-20.

Jacksonville -4.5 vs. Houston

In the last two weeks, the Jaguars’ defense has looked far from the unit we saw last year. Coming off of two embarrassing losses, this is an important game for a Jacksonville team that was expected to be a top seed coming out of the AFC. I like them to bounce back at home against the Texans, who barely escaped with a win against Buffalo last week. Jaguars win 23-17.

San Francisco +10.5 vs. LA Rams

Once again, I think the Rams are laying too many points on the road. I got lucky last week winning on Denver’s backdoor cover, but this feels like a close game too. San Francisco played very well against the Packers on Monday Night Football, and I think Kyle Shanahan will have the team ready for this divisional matchup. I’ll take the Rams to win, but 49ers cover 27-21.

NY Giants +4.5 at Atlanta

There may not be a team in the NFL that has been decimated by injuries quite like the Falcons. Losing key starters like Deion Jones, Keanu Neal, Ricardo Allen, and Devonta Freeman has been too significant for a Falcons team that was being picked to win the Super Bowl this year. As much as I’m enjoying the Giants being a circus this season, I think they go on the road and upset Atlanta here. Giants win this one 26-23.

Week Six Record: 3-2

Season Record: 13-17