2018 NFL Best Bets Against the Spread – Week Eight

Jake Benaquisto with his weekly NFL Best Bets

I benefitted from another backdoor cover, this time by the Giants, to put my record at 3-2 again last week. I’m now on a two week winning streak and am looking to make it three after this weekend. Before I give my picks, here’s some NFL thoughts and observations. 

  1. I fully expect another loss for the Jets this week in Chicago. Not only are the Jets riddled with injuries, but they’re playing a Bears team looking to get back on track after two losses in a row. 
  2. One lesson I learned the hard way last week: Never wager on Blake Bortles. I know the Jags have very little help at wide receiver and Leonard Fournette is hurt, but that offense has scored a combined 28 points in the last three weeks. 
  3. I so badly wanted to take Aaron Rodgers getting 9.5 points this week, but I just can’t bring myself to bet against the Rams again. 

Cincinnati -3.5 vs. Tampa Bay

I’m not ready to give up on the Bengals yet, who are coming off two tough losses to the Steelers and Chiefs. Cincinnati is a good team at home and their division is still very much up in the air. I have a lot less faith in the Bucs and Jameis Winston, who got lucky to beat the incompetent Browns last week. Bengals win this one easily, 27-19.

Washington +1 at NY Giants

There’s a very real chance that this ends up being a home game atmosphere for Washington. The Giants are 1-6, Eli is washed, and the New York media is already running Pat Shurmur out of town. The Redskins will be motivated, as they are looking to keep their spot at first place in the division. Take Washington to win this game, 20-10.

Carolina +3 vs. Baltimore

It’s hard to believe that the Panthers are getting points in this game, but I’ll happily take advantage of it. Simply put, I think Carolina is a better team and I trust them at home. Baltimore’s run defense might be one of the best in the league, but I’m not sure their offense can do enough to keep them in this game. I’ll take the Panthers to upset and win this game, 23-20.

New Orleans +1 at Minnesota

I watched the Vikings / Jets game last week and despite them winning, I wasn’t overly impressed with Minnesota. Other than Adam Thielen, their weapons on offense can be fairly limited, especially with Dalvin Cook out. The Vikings’ defense has been lights out against the pass lately, but I think the Saints run the ball heavy in this game with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Give me New Orleans to go on the road and beat Minnesota, 26-24.

New England -13.5 at Buffalo

I don’t care what the line is – I’m not wasting any opportunity to bet against this Bills team with Derek Anderson starting at quarterback. The Patriots have scored at least 38 points in each of their last four weeks and have historically owned the Bills. According to Pro Football Reference, Tom Brady in his career is 28-3 against Buffalo. Despite the big number, this pick is easy to me. Patriots win 36-13.

Week Seven Record: 3-2

Season Record: 16-19