2018 NFL Best Bets Against the Spread – Week Five

Jake Benaquisto with his week 5 NFL Best Bets…

My picks are off to a very mediocre start in 2018, as I went 2-3 against the spread again last week. Here are some takes before I look to bounce back in week five:

  1. Does Todd Bowles even have a pulse at this point? I took the Jets last week and they looked uninterested in playing football against the Jaguars. If they have another embarrassing loss against Denver on Sunday, I don’t see a scenario where he returns as the head coach. 
  2. Baltimore at Cleveland might be the game I’m most excited to watch this week. I think the Ravens are legitimate contenders, and I can’t wait to see how Baker plays against their defense.
  3. It’s pretty safe to say that the Falcons’ season could be over if they don’t win in Pittsburgh. I don’t feel great about their chances, especially with the Steelers coming off a tough loss on Sunday Night Football. 

Green Bay +1 at Detroit

I was shocked to see the Packers getting a point in this game, but nonetheless, I’ll jump on it. Even though they’re in Detroit, Aaron Rodgers has historically owned these divisional games. According to Adam Schefter’s Twitter, Rodgers is 7-1-1 in his last nine NFC North games with 23 touchdowns and zero interceptions. I’ll take Green Bay to win this game in a shootout, 28-27.

Carolina -6.5 vs. NY Giants

Carolina is coming off a bye and looking to catch up to the Saints in the NFC South. They’re laying a touchdown in this game, but I just think they’re the much better team. On paper, this Giants offense looks like it should be good, but their play calling has been awful. I think they struggle to score against a defense that just added Eric Reid to their secondary. Panthers win 21-10.

LA Rams -7.5 at Seattle

I’ve seen enough from the Rams – they’re becoming too good not to bet on. Jared Goff is playing at an MVP level right now and Todd Gurley is having another dominant season. On defense, Aaron Donald and the Rams’ front should be disruptive against a weak Seattle offensive line. Last year, the Rams beat the Seahawks in Seattle 42-7. I expect another blowout this week. Rams win 36-17.

Houston -3.5 vs. Dallas

The Texans seem to be trending in the right direction. Deshaun Watson looks more comfortable coming off his ACL injury, and the return of J.J. Watt has added a boost to Houston’s pass rush. I think this Cowboys team is way overrated, and their offensive line has not been the same without Travis Frederick. I’ll take the Texans to win 24-19.

Washington +6 at New Orleans

I like Washington, another team coming off a bye, getting points in this one. The Saints are my pick to win the Super Bowl, but I think this is a tough matchup for their defense. Alex Smith has looked comfortable in Jay Gruden’s offense and I like the weapons they have around him. Saints probably still win this game, but I think the Redskins cover the six point spread. New Orleans wins 26-23.

Week 4 Record: 2-3

Season Record: 10-10