2018 NFL Best Bets Against the Spread – Week Four

Jake Benaquisto with his NFL Best Bets for week 4…

Week Three was about as unpredictable as it could have been, but I was still able to go 3-2 on my best bets. I’m not sure why I thought it’d be a good idea to pick against the Rams, but I know it looks pretty stupid in hindsight. Here are some random NFL thoughts as we head into week four:

  1. Could this finally be the year that the Patriots stink and their dynasty ends?! I wouldn’t bet on it, but a loss against the Dolphins this week would be catastrophic. 
  2. I think I’m ready to have the way-too-early Jared Goff MVP conversation. You can point to how much talent he has around him and the fact that Sean McVay is calling plays, but the guy was dropping dimes against the Vikings on Thursday night. 
  3. Speaking of potential MVPs, I can’t wait to see how Pat Mahomes looks against the Broncos on Monday night. The Chiefs offense looked unstoppable again last week, but playing in Denver is a tough environment for a young QB.
  4. One pick that I like but didn’t put in my best bets is Atlanta -4.5 vs. Cincinnati. This Bengals team is better than I thought they’d be, but I don’t see the Falcons losing two games in a row at home. I could see Cincinnati getting a backdoor cover, but Atlanta should score enough to win by a touchdown.

Tennessee +3.5 vs. Philadelphia

In week two, I loved the Eagles laying 3.5 on the road in Tampa Bay. I learned my lesson, and although Carson Wentz is now playing, I don’t think this team should be favored this much outside of Philadelphia right now. Marcus Mariota is returning as the starter, which is a significant upgrade over Blain Gabbert. This feels like an ugly, low scoring game that is decided late in the fourth quarter. I’ll take the Titans to upset and win this one, 21-20.

NY Jets +7.5 at Jacksonville

It’s pretty remarkable how quickly the perception of this Jets team changed. At halftime against the Browns, it looked like the Jets were about to be 2-1 with both wins on the road. Instead, Baker Mayfield resurrected the city of Cleveland and led an amazing comeback against a defense that had prepared for Tyrod Taylor on a short week.  Now, Sam Darnold is a bust, the Jets should tank for Nick Bosa, and Todd Bowles has to be fired. After spending ten days reading about how awful they are, I expect this Jets team to be well prepared for Jacksonville. I’m not sure they win outright, but I think this is a much closer game than people think. Jaguars win 24-21.

Oakland -2.5 vs. Cleveland

If theres’s one thing I’ve learned from gambling on the NFL, you should always bet against a team the week after they celebrate a regular season win like it’s the Super Bowl. Yes, Cleveland’s win was impressive and Baker Mayfield played like the #1 overall pick. However, Hue Jackson is still the head coach, and now they’re traveling across the country to play a Raiders team who is looking for their first win of the season. Give me Oakland to win this game easily, 28-17.

NY Giants +3.5 vs. New Orleans

I think this Saints offense can score with anyone in the league, but their defense has too many holes to lay 3.5 points on the road. With Patrick Robinson on IR and Manti Te’o questionable to play, New Orleans could have a lot of trouble slowing down New York’s weapons. This game has shootout written all over it and I love the Giants as home underdogs here. I’ll take the Giants to upset and win outright, 30-28.

LA Chargers -10.5 vs. San Francisco

Losing Jimmy G for the year is a huge blow for the 49ers and any fan of the NFL. I don’t think this team would have made the playoffs in the loaded NFC if he’s healthy, but without him, they could be one of the worst teams in the league. In the 11 games they played without Garoppolo last year, the team went 1-10. I don’t have a ton of faith in C.J. Beathard, especially against a Chargers team desperate for a win. Chargers win and cover the big spread, 27-10.

Week Three Record: 3-2

Season Record: 8-7