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The two most likely selections for the New York Jets with the third overall pick appear to be UCLA’s Josh Rosen or Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield. Let’s take a closer, comparative look at the new prospective faces of this franchise.
1 – THE SITUATION: The good news is that you can make argument that either of these players are the best quarterback in this year’s class. There is not a bad choice here. Personally, I have Rosen rated as the top quarterback by a slight margin over Mayfield and Sam Darnold but the difference is negligible. There are only two ways the Jets decision at number three is a disaster: Josh Allen or a non quarterback. It does appear there is a reasonable chance both Rosen and Mayfield will be there for the picking, which is a luxury the Jets would not have had with the sixth overall pick. Considering the rumored trade up interest of Buffalo, Miami, Arizona and even New England, there is no guarantee even one of them would have been available with the sixth overall pick. This selection is the Jets regime pushing all their chips into the middle of the table at the most important position in sports.2 – MEASURABLES: Rosen is 6’4, 226 pounds with 9 7/8″ hand size. He ran a 4.92 forty yard dash with a 4.28 20 yard shuttle. Mayfield is 6’1, 215 pounds with 9 1/4″ hand size. He ran a 4.84 forty yard dash with a 4.28 20 yard shuttle. Mayfield is 2 years and 2 months older than Rosen (23 years old vs. 21 years old).
3 – INJURY HISTORY: Rosen had shoulder surgery in 2016 to repair soft-tissue damage, causing him to miss six games. He suffered two concussions last season and missed a pair of games due to it. Mayfield suffered a knee injury in 2013 while at Texas Tech, causing him to miss a handful of games. Last season, he banged up his shoulder but did not miss any time.
4 – OFF THE FIELD: Rosen wore a F* Trump hat when golfing a few years ago and was photographed sitting in a hot tub in his dorm room with a girl. He was also outspoken about NCAA players not being paid and has received criticism for being “too smart” (rolls eyes out of back of head). Mayfield was arrested in 2017 on public intoxication and fleeing charges. He did 35 hours of community service as punishment. He was also suspended for 2 plays this past season for taunting Kansas.
5 – TOP LINE PRODUCTION: Rosen threw for 3,756 yards, 26 touchdowns, 10 interceptions with a 8.3 YPA and 62.6 completion percentage last season. For his career, he threw 59 touchdowns to 26 interceptions with a 8.0 YPA and 60.9 completion percentage. Mayfield threw for 4,627 yards, 43 touchdowns, 6 interceptions with a 11.5 YPA and 70.5 completion percentage last season. For his career, he threw 131 touchdowns to 30 interceptions with a 9.8 YPA and 68.5 completion percentage. He also rushed for 1,083 yards and 21 touchdowns. Mayfield won the Heisman Trophy last season.6 – COMPARISONS: (This is a rough list of both good and bad this writer has seen in the previous few months, feel free to submit any others over on Twitter.
- Rosen: Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Trent Green, Jay Cutler, Less mobile Aaron Rodgers
- Mayfield: 20% Better Jeff Garcia, Suped Up Case Keenum, Less Athletic Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Doug Flutie
7 – UNDER PRESSURE:
Mayfield has performed better statistically when under pressure than Rosen, however a notable qualifier from PFF (who has Mayfield ranked as their top quarterback in the class).
PFF’s analysts logged 11 sacks that were all or mostly Mayfield’s fault, rather than the fault of his offensive line. That number led FBS quarterbacks last year, according to PFF. “There are some plays where he’s almost inviting pressure,” Palazzolo says. “There are a few plays where he holds the ball a little bit long and instead of making a throw within the structure of the offense he looks to make a play outside of structure a little bit too much. He will look to make a big play instead of the easy throw. That will be an adjustment for him.”
Fun to mess with CQ data and check out different stuff. Sack rate (sack/dropbacks) for top QBs:
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) April 8, 2018
8 – VERTICAL ABILITY: Both Rosen and Mayfield have encouraging metrics in the intermediate and deep passing game, which should help quell any unfounded concerns about their arm strength.
Of draft-eligible quarterbacks, Rosen had the lowest percentage of uncatchable passes beyond 15 yards. Just 17 percent of his throws that traveled that far in the air were uncatchable, according to @CFBFilmRoom
Mayfield’s accuracy being a product of his offensive system falls apart with a closer look at his downfield numbers.
Josh Allen’s target share (by depth of target)
Behind LoS: 14.1
When adjusting class comp % to each depth by this target share, total comp % is:
Allen: 59.1% https://t.co/6noUz1l5sK
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) April 19, 2018
Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield was the most accurate draft-eligible QB on deep passes this season. pic.twitter.com/5tTLfhUiHV
— PFF Draft (@PFF_College) December 25, 2017
At a high level, I’d think of Mayfield as being more accurate when attacking deep down the field, while Rosen is more precise in the intermediate game (dig routes, curls, deep comebacks).
9 – THIRD DOWN/FOURTH QUARTER: In 2017, Rosen was 53/102 (52%) with 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on all third downs. On 3rd and 7 or longer, he was 36/65 with 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions. Baker Mayfield was 49/79 (62%) with 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on all third downs. On 3rd and 7 or longer, he was 25/39 with 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions.
In the fourth quarter (2017), Rosen was 77/119 (64.7%) with 10 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Mayfield was 38/59 (64.4%) with 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.
10 – BIGGEST POSITIVES: Rosen is a high IQ, traditional pocket passer with an elite combination of accuracy and arm strength. Mayfield is a unique playmaker with exceptional accuracy, particularly when attacking down the field.
11 – BIGGEST RED FLAGS: Durability is a legitimate concern with Rosen, more specifically the concussions he suffered last season. He has bulked up his frame and he was stuck behind a poor offensive line at UCLA but he needs to demonstrate an ability to protect himself at the next level. Mayfield’s propensity to hold the football too long and look to improvise instead of take what the defense is giving him could be problematic as he adjusts to the NFL game. The off field concerns for both are overstated.
12 – FAN PREFERENCE:
— Joe Caporoso (@JCaporoso) April 19, 2018
This week’s TOJ Recap!
- Connor Rogers NFL Draft Notebook
- TOJ Pod f/ Chris Nimbley
- Cody Emerson on day two TE targets
- Initial schedule reaction
- The Jet Take Podcast f/ Joe Caporoso
- 1260 TheScore – Joe Caporoso
- 1260 TheScore – Connor Rogers
- Purple Reign Podcast – Joe Caporoso
- No Fly Zone with Dalbin Osorio
- No Fly Zone with Scott Mason
Photo Credit: NewYorkJets.com