NFL Best Bets Against the Spread – Week 17 Edition

Jake Benquisto with his NFL Best Bets for week 17 of the season…

Week 16 Recap: Thanks to a last second back door cover by the Eagles, I finished the week 4-1. Through 16 weeks, my record is 46-33-1 against the spread. I can only hope that the Gambling Gods stay on my side as the regular season comes to a close. 

Minnesota -11.5 vs. Chicago

The Vikings still have a lot to play for, as they’ll secure a first round bye in the playoffs with a win this week. Minnesota has been dominant at home this season, as 5 of their wins in front of their own crowd have been decided by double digits. This is another big spread for the Vikings, but I like their chances against a clearly inferior Bears team. Minnesota wins 33-18.

Miami +2.5 vs. Buffalo

Does any one really trust Buffalo to win this game with the playoffs on the line? Not only are they going against a division rival, but the Bills will be playing in unfamiliar weather, as the game is in Miami. Since Buffalo is used to the cold weather, I think the Dolphins have a significant advantage being at home. I’m picking Miami to upset the Bills and knock them out of the postseason hunt, 23-21.

San Francisco -3.5 at LA Rams

It’s a shame that Jimmy G wasn’t traded earlier in the season, because the 49ers have become one of the most exciting teams in football since he has taken over at QB. The 4 game winning streak is obviously impressive, but I’ve been surprised to see how much respect Garoppolo has from his teammates. Since the Rams are locked in as the 3 or 4 seed in the NFC, they won’t be playing their starters in this game. I expect San Francisco to take advantage of this and continue their win streak. 49ers win 27-17.

Kansas City +4.5 at Denver

The Chiefs may be resting their starters, but I’m just as confident in their offense with Pat Mahomes starting at QB. Though he’s only seen action in the preseason, Mahomes looked the part. He completed 63% of his passes with 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Denver, on the other hand, will be trotting out Paxton Lynch, who has struggled to stay healthy all season. I think Kansas City goes into Denver and wins this game, 23-16.

Tampa Bay +5.5 vs. New Orleans 

The Buccaneers are on a 5 game losing streak, but they’ve actually covered in their last 3 games. This week, they’re getting 5.5 points at home against the Saints. Because New Orleans plays in a dorm and is on the road here, I think this game will actually be close. I still think the Saints win this game, but I think the Bucs can keep the game within the spread. New Orleans wins 28-23.

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