TOJ Roundtable – Ryan Fitzpatrick Prediction Edition

The TOJ Roundtable gives their predictions for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 2016 stat line…

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What is your prediction for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 2016 stat line…

Joe Caporoso – As a refresher Fitzpatrick’s stat line in 2015 was 59.6 completion percentage, 3,905 yards, 31 TDs, 15 INTs, 270 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs.

For this season, I think the completion percentage ticks up to slightly over 60, thanks to Matt Forte replacing Chris Ivory, hopefully a more healthy Bilal Powell, improvements from Quincy Enunwa and Jace Amaro out there instead of Jeff Cumberland. The touchdowns should hover around the same number due to above reasons but a potential slight regression to the mean in red zone efficiency. Yardage should also be relatively consistent as well. Interceptions feel likely to increase due to Fitzpatrick’s career track record and how many near picks he got away with last season. I don’t foresee a major change in either direction on his rushing totals, so let’s go with…

60.1 completion percentage, 3,955 yards, 32 TDs, 22 INTs, 250 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD

Dalbin Osorio – 54% completion percentage, 4,300 yards, 25 TDs, 17 INTs, 4 Rushing TDs, 20 total turnovers 

I think you’ll see an uptick in Fitzpatrick’s passing yards but a decrease in his completion percentage because the Jets face a daunting schedule on paper with some pretty talented secondaries and I don’t believe the running game will be able to ease the burden like last year. I think you’ll also see an increase in turnovers and a decrease in passing touchdowns.

The Jets are stepping up in class this year and I think their 1-5 record when the defense allowed 24 or more points hints at a team that struggled when the defense was on the field for too long and who did not ask their offense to win many games for them. This year, the offense will need to be better in all facets because sleepwalking performances like against Houston and Oakland (two losses much more damning than the Buffalo losses due to my belief that the Jets are just flat out better than Houston and Oakland whereas divisional games are so tough to predict) will cost them playoff positioning. Fitzpatrick will need to be better and safer with the ball, and I’m not sure he can learn to do that this late in his career. 

Edward Gorelik – 61% Completion, 3700 Yards, 7.1 YPA, 26 TDs, 23 INTs; 300 Rushing Yards; 5 total fumbles lost.

Let’s start with this, there is no way the offense is experiencing the same luck with health they experienced last year from it’s primary performers. There’s also almost no way Fitzpatrick can spend a second season seeing only 30% of his potential interceptions get caught when the league average is closer to 50%. The high amount he had last year against easier defenses should be increasing with better defenses. With that in mind, a lot of drives that lived through sheer luck will be dying in 2016. A lot of drives that were created in 2015 by Marshall fixing a bad throw or Decker coming wide open thanks to great route will likely be lost. Add in the massive boost in scheduling, I find it hard to believe Fitzpatrick can significantly improve his efficiency in any way. In my eyes, Fitzpatrick is a volume based player to begin with and the volume is unlikely to appear as easily this year.

Joe Malfa – 61% 4,205 yards, 36 TDs, 27 INTs, 81.2 passer rating

I am going to keep this short and sweet — as I don’t really want to beat a dead horse.

Fitz’s numbers in 2016 will be very similar to those of 2015. Jace Amaro and Matt Forte have been added into the mix, which will bode well for his play and TD total. I believe there will be a bit of an uptick in INTs, however, because he did get lucky a lot last year with passes dropped by the opposition. 

Matthew Stalker – Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to get a full training camp with the starters and now has a full year under his belt working with Todd Bowles and Chan Gailey. The Jets have also, in my eyes, upgraded their backfield by adding Matt Forte and Khiry Robinson (who runs similar to Chris Ivory) and by re-signing Bilal Powell. The one/two of Forte and Powell should expand the short passing game and improve check down situations for the Jets in 2016, while Robinson can be the physical runner we lost in Ivory.

That being said, the Jets’ schedule is a bit more daunting than 2015. They will face some better defenses, especially early on. Fitz just needs to play smart. He cannot take a beating or just throw the ball up for grabs like he did at times last season. If he can manage that better, he and the Jets will find success this season. I think given a full, healthy season Fitz will improve his completion percentage, but throw a couple less touchdowns and a couple more interceptions, overall having another solid year.

As for a stat line for Ryan Fitzpatrick: 61.5% completion percentage, completing 338 of 550 passes with 3,885 yards, 28 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 22 sacks and let’s throw 40 rushes for 195 yards and one touchdown in there.

David Aitken – 356/570 (62.5%), 31 TD Passes, 19 INTs, 4,104 yards, 7.2 Y/A, 88.4 Passer Rating.

Fitzpatrick over the course of his career has been an above-average quarterback in one statistical category and below average basically everywhere else. He’s likely going to be amongst the fringe top 10 in touchdown passes, somewhere in the top ten in most interceptions, a completion percentage that falls somewhere below league average, and a yards-per-attempt that puts him toward the league’s lower third. 

I predict an uptick in efficiency in terms of Y/A and completion rate from last year based on the offense offering more to work with this year from the get-go past Decker and Marshall, and overall the best skill position core he’s ever worked with. The dominance of the WR duo should help maintain a strong red zone efficiency as well, thus Fitzpatrick’s TD total is unchanged from last year (though this is a 16 game prediction and he missed most of last year’s Oakland game). Interceptions are likely to go up given how fortunate Fitzpatrick was in this area last year, and he could even lead the league in this category. 

After breaking the Jets single-season passing TD record last year, I think he’ll come close again this year and also set the passing yardage mark if he’s healthy for 16 games. Relative to the rest of the league’s quarterbacks though, he’ll still be finishing below average in several categories. 

John Hargaden  62% 4100 yards 34 TD 18 INT

Coming into his 2nd year with the Jets, I do believe that his numbers will not be too far off from what he did last year. With the return of Jace Amaro, it will give Ryan Fitzpatrick another weapon to go too. If he can stay healthy, it will be interesting to see how Chan Gailey plans to use Amaro. 

Now I do believe going into this season, you may see opposing defenses changing some things up in how they plan to defend the Jets which could change these numbers. I do believe that the wide outs will help once again with questionable throws from Fitz. 

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Author: Joe Caporoso

Joe Caporoso is the Owner and EIC of Turn On The Jets. His writing has been featured in the New York Times, Huffington Post, MMQB and AdWeek. Caporoso played football his entire life, including four years at Muhlenberg as a wide receiver, where he was arguably the slowest receiver to ever start in school history. He is the EVP of Content at Whistle Sports