TOJ Pick Six – Thoughts On Jets Post 2016 NFL Draft

Dalbin Osorio with a TOJ Pick Six, breaking down how the New York Jets draft class impacts their 2016 depth chart

We are back with another edition of the TOJ #PickSix. This week, we will share some thoughts on the New York Jets heading into the next phase of the offseason after the 2016 NFL Draft…

1. In 2014,  the New York Jets depth chart looked like this

Offense
QB: Geno Smith, Mike Vick, Matt Simms
RB: Chris Ivory, Chris Johnson, Bilal Powell
FB: Tommy Bohanon
WR: Eric Decker, Percy Harvin, Jeremy Kerley, Stephen Hill, David Nelson, Quincy Enunwa
TE: Jace Amaro, Jeff Cumberland, Zach Sudfeld
OT: D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Breno Giacomini, Ben Ijalana, Patrick Ford
OG: Willie Colon, Brian Winters, Oday Aboushi, William Campbell
C: Nick Mangold, Caleb Schlauderaff

Defense
DE: Muhammed Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson, Leger Douzable
DT: Damon Harrison, Kenrick Ellis
OLB: Calvin Pace, Quinton Coples, Garrett McIntyre, Antwan Barnes, IK Enemkapali, Trevor Reilly
FS: Calvin Pryor, Jaiquawn Jarrett
SS: Dawan Landry, Antonio Allen
CB: Dee Milliner, Kyle Wilson, Darrin Walls, Ras-I Dowling, Ellis Lankster, Dexter McDougle

Special Teams
K: Nick Folk
P: Ryan Quiggley
LS: Tanner Purdum

As of today, on May 2nd 2016 the Jets depth chart reads like this

Offense
QB: Geno Smith, Christian Hackenburg, Bryce Petty
RB: Matt Forte, Bilal Powell, Khiry Robinson
FB: Tommy Bohanon
WR: Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Devin Smith, Kenbrell Thompkins, Quincy Enunwa, Jeremy Ross
TE: Kellen Davis, Jace Amaro, Zach Sudfeld
OT: Ryan Clady, Breno Giacomini, Ben Ijalana, Brent Qvale
OG: James Carpenter, Brian Winters, Jarvis Harrison, Dakota Dozier
C: Nick Mangold, Wesley Johnson

Defense
DE: Muhammed Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson, Leonard Williams, Jarvis Jenkins
NT: Steve McClendon, Deon Simon
OLB: Lorenzo Mauldin, Jordan Jenkins, Trevor Reilly, Mike Catapano
ILB: David Harris, Erin Henderson, Darron Lee, Bruce Carter
CB: Darrelle Revis, Buster Skrine, Marcus Williams, Dee Milliner, Dexter McDougle, Justin Burris
FS: Marcus Gilchrist, Rontez Myles
SS: Calvin Pryor, Dion Bailey

Special Teams
K: Nick Folk
P: Tom Hackett
LS: Tanner Purdum

Why did I show you this? Because Evan Silva tweeted this regarding Mike Maccagnan’s job so far as Jets General Manager. Now, by my account, Maccagnan has improved 21 of the 53 positions on the roster. Starting QB is a push (Geno), Hackenberg and Petty are better than Vick and Simms. Forte and Powell are upgrades over Ivory and Johnson, and Marshall and Decker are better than Decker and Harvin. Clady and Harrison improve the OL, while Leonard Williams and Jarvis Jenkins improve the DL.

The secondary is also better, while the edge goes to the LBs from 2014. Maccagnan took over a team with an abundance of cap space and no talent. He has begun to replenish the lower and middle class of this roster, and he has now hitched his proverbial wagon on to the arm of Penn State Nittany Lion Christian Hackenberg. The team today is better than the team Maccagnan inherited. People who say that you need more time to gauge the job he’s done should probably not grade him after the short time he’s been running the team then.

2. The aforementioned Christian Hackenberg pick says all you need to know about former second round pick Geno Smith and less about last year’s 4th round pick Bryce Petty. A lot of people remarked that the drafting of Hackenberg means the Jets wasted a pick on Petty, but that’s not entirely accurate. Maccagnan’s goal for Petty, and you could kind of hear it in their comments after he was drafted and during this contract stand off with Ryan Fitzpatrick, was to develop into a potential spot starter and long term back up. The odds of a 4th round pick developing into a franchise QB are very, very slim. The odds of a second round QB are much better, since a second round pick (think Derek Carr) is usually a first round talent that fell to round 2 due to need or just general questions about their transition.

Geno Smith, a former second round pick, was the number one pick in the draft up until about 2-3 weeks before the draft. You draft guys in round 2 to compete to be starters with your incumbent and either take the job themselves or push your presumptive starter enough that they then reach their potential. You can then trade your second rounder to a QB needy team because, let’s face it, there’s always a QB needy team. This selection let you know that the Jets do not believe in Geno Smith and that, after 29 starts, they don’t need to see anymore. If Fitzpatrick is resigned, Smith will be released and the Jets will keep Petty because in their ideal scenario Fitzpatrick will be their bridge QB for a year or two until Hackenberg is ready. If the Jets believed in Geno Smith, Hackenberg is not the pick at 51.

3. Christian Hackenberg is the pick that will swing this draft class from good to either great or average. Last year’s draft class netted a DROY candidate in Leo Williams and a starter at OLB in Lorenzo Mauldin. Should Hackenberg and Devin Smith turn into plus starters, that would be 7 starters in two drafts (More below). Everyone focuses on the free agents the Jets have brought in, but the draft picks will be the ones that ensure that the Jets become consistent contenders going forward.

4. Brandon Shell will most likely be the starting at RT Week One. Him, Darron Lee, Jordan Jenkins, and Tom Hackett are the rookies more likely to start week one. For a team that’s as old as the Jets, this is a revelation in and of itself because they haven’t had multiple contributing young players in a very long time. This was John Idzik’s vision, and it’s kind of funny to see some of his guys contributing under a better coaching staff.

5. My money is on Jalin Marshall becoming the Jets full time kick and punt returner. You can’t teach sub 4.4 speed, and Marshall’s fall from day 2 pick to UDFA is another example of why the draft is such a crap shoot. He’s electric with the ball in his hands, and provides the Jets with roster flexibility due to his ability as a WR. Marshall, Hackett, and Claude Pelon are the UDFAs with the best chance to make the 53 man roster.

6. Here’s who I would’ve picked if the board broke exactly the same way it did before all of the Jets picks:

20. QB Paxton Lynch
51. CB Mackenzie Alexander
83. WR Braxton Miller
118. DT Andrew Billings
158. OG Christian Westerman
235. P Tom Hackett
250. OLB Scooby Wright III

Photo Credit: Scout.Com

 

Author: Dalbin Osorio

Dalbin Osorio is a Case Planner for Graham-Windham, New York's oldest child welfare agency. He is, also, a student at the Silberman School of Social Work at Hunter College. Dalbin graduated from Monroe College with a degree in Business Administration. A 3 sport utility man in high school (think a mix of Jerome WIlliams, Brad Smith, and Jayson Nix), he joined TOJ in 2013.