TOJ Week 9 Stock Watch & Gambling Advice

I can’t be the only person out there who thinks this NFL season needs to slow down, can I? I mean, it’s November and week 9 has arrived. It seems like just yesterday everyone was having their fantasy football drafts and anxiously awaiting week 9 to arrive, right? It can’t really be that long ago that I had visions in my head of dominating the NFL season and making a mockery of the point spreads the geniuses in Vegas came up with. Well, 9 weeks later and here we are. The season is half over and while my picks have been better of late, the season has been pretty terrible overall. The tide is turning though. I can feel it. This is the week!

And for those just interested in my Jets thoughts, I have a mini Stock Watch in the Jets pick section. My apologies for not being able to produce a full article this week. I’ll be back on track next week, or your money back!

Dolphins +3 vs. Bengals – I’ve been on a bit of a roll in these Thursday games, and I released this pick on Twitter prior to the game. The Bengals just seemed like too easy of a pick, and that’s never a good thing. Also, I hit the under 44 on this game so I’m going to go ahead and count that as a 2-0 start to the week. I need to get back to even somehow, right?

Panthers -7.5 vs. Falcons – There are no two ways about this one: The Falcons are a bad team right now. The passing game is in shambles without Julio Jones and Steven Jackson is doing his best Brandon Jacobs impression this year, which is not a compliment. Meanwhile, Cam Newton has caught fire the past few weeks, and there is no reason to think he won’t humiliate this Falcons defense and make them feel like less of men.

Cowboys -10 vs. Vikings – This could be a big of a trap line here, but I just can’t bring myself to back Christian Ponder on the road. I want to, but… I just can’t. I’m sorry, Christian. Also, after his sideline outburst last week, Dez Bryant is going to go absolutely bonkers in this game. On the field this time, though. Huge game for him.

Jets +6 vs. Saints – Ok, here we go, it’s mini Stock Watch time!

BUY: Rex Ryan having the team ready – After the huge win against the Patriots, it was fairly easy to see the Jets having a letdown performance last week in Cincinnati. After that straight up ass-kicking the Bengals gave the Jets, you know damn well Rex is going to have the team ready to go this week. They’re home, they’re playing Rex’s brother’s team, and nobody is giving them a chance at all. Add those up, and a Jets win could very well be in the cards this week

BUY: Chris Ivory – More Ivory. Less Powell. Please, and thank you. No matter what Ivory says, you know this game against his former team means something to him and he will give just a little bit extra to finish off all of his runs. The Jets need to pound the ball and keep Brees off the field. That means it’s Ivory Time.

SELL: Stephen Hill – I’m not ready to completely give up on Stephen Hill, but it really is starting to get more and more difficult to keep making excuses and sticking up for him, isn’t it? David Nelson showed up midway through the season and basically took his job right away. Geno Smith clearly has more confidence in Nelson at this point, and so does Marty Mornhinweg. That’s a bad thing for the guy who was a 2nd round pick just last year, right? Hill needs to step it up, and soon.

BUY: Dee Milliner – Sure, Milliner is quite possibly the worst player in the NFL at this point, but his stock can’t be any lower, so selling doesn’t make any sense, right? Listen, Milliner is too talented to play this poorly for much longer, and Rex Ryan clearly believes in him. He is going to be a good player in this league, and while I much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much prefer to see Darrin Walls in the game over him at this point, writing off the number 9 overall pick in the draft this early is silly. Give him some time.

BUY: Jets +6 and Win Outright – Not only will the Jets cover this game, they’re going to win it outright. There is extra motivation with Rex’s brother Rob coming into town, and whenever everyone writes off the Jets, they bounce back and put on a great performance. The Saints are a very good team, but they have a tendency to struggle on the road in outdoor stadiums, and this is going to be one of those weeks.

Bills +3.5 vs. Chiefs – This is the week the Chiefs could get knocked off. They’re clearly not as good as their undefeated record would suggest, and this game has “letdown” written all over it. They may very well pull out the win, but it won’t be easy, and I think the Bills cover.

Redskins +1 vs. Chargers – San Diego is coming off a bye which worries me here, but west coast teams traveling cross country for 1:00 games is never a good thing. The Chargers are starting to get some buzz as a playoff team and that means Phil Rivers is due for a classic Phil Rivers choke job game, even though he’s facing a horrendous defense.

Titans -3 @ Rams – The Monday game against the Seahawks may very well have been the Rams “Super Bowl”, and now they’re primed for a major letdown game after that heartbreaking last-second loss to Seattle. Jake Locker is back from injury now and I expect the Titans to protect him and allow their defense to do enough to win this game. After all, Brian Schottenheimer and Kellen Clemens are still running the show over in St. Louis, and as Jets fans everywhere know, that is NOT a good thing.

Seahawks -16.5 vs. Bucs – Greg Schiano. LOL.

Ravens -2.5 @ Browns – If the Ravens weren’t coming off a bye, I would probably take the Browns in this game, but alas, they are. This could be a really long, terrible game for Jason Campbell (who sucks) while the Ravens ride Ray Rice on their way to a victory. Don’t be surprised if Rice gets the ball upwards of 30 times in this game and they grind out a 10-point win, 23-13.

Patriots -6.5 vs. Steelers – The Patriots used to own the Steelers back when the Steelers were good. Now the Steelers are terrible and I’m supposed to think they’re going into New England and keeping this game within a touchdown? Nah. There’s going to be an awful lot of fat, obnoxious, mouth-breathing, yellow towel wavers very unhappy walking out of that stadium some time around 7:00 on Sunday.

Raiders -2 vs. Eagles – I would feel a lot better about this one if the God-awful Michael Vick were starting for the Eagles, but does it really matter? The Eagles stink and while the Raiders are not exactly a Super Bowl team, they’re better and are going to win this game rather easily.

Texans +3 vs. Colts – Do you have any idea how much money is going to be on the Colts in this game? People everywhere are going to be going large on Indy to recoup their losses from throughout the day, and that is NEVER a good thing. Just trust me on this one. I know it doesn’t make much sense, but the Texans are going to win this game. I don’t know how, or why.. but it’s going to happen. Watch.

Bears +11 @ Packers – Just seems like too many points for a division rivalry game, even with Jay Cutler injured. The Packers are without a ton of players themselves, and while I do fully expect Eddie Lacy to have a monster game, a backdoor cover is a definite possibility here. I’m taking the points here.

Best Bets: Jets +6, Bills +3.5, Ravens -2.5, Patriots -6.5, Texans +3

Teaser of the Week: 3 Team / 10 Point – Cowboys PK, Ravens +7.5, Patriots +3.5

Last Week: 6-7 Overall, 2-3 Best Bets, 1-0 Teaser of the Week

Year to Date: 51-67-2 overall, 17-22-1 Best Bets, 9-3 Teasers