TOJ: Week 10 NFL Gambling Advice and Picks

Week 10 has arrived and I finally put together a great week last week, going 8-4-1 total. The week would have been even better had I put the article out on Sunday morning like I’m doing this week because then I would have been able to include two picks I changed my mind on with the Vikings and the Eagles. Oh well, I’ll still take the solid week and hopefully we can build on that going forward and end the season with a bang. I’m feeling pretty good about a few games this week, and others not so much. Let’s see how it goes…

Vikings +2.5 vs. Redskins – Ca-ching! And here’s the weekly reminder that I do release my Thursday picks on Twitter for those of you interested in such things. If this game had been on Sunday it would have been one of my best bets. I just don’t understand why anybody thinks the Redskins are good at this point. They aren’t. They’re terrible. RG3 isn’t playing like he did last year, the Shanahans are terrible, Jim Haslett is terrible, the defense is terrible, they’re just… terrible all around. This one was a gift.

Ravens +1.5 vs. Bengals – Sure, the Ravens are bad, I won’t argue with you on that. But, if they were ever to pull out every possible play they have up their sleeves, this would be the week, and that’s pretty much what I’m expecting here. The Bengals are reeling from some serious injuries on defense and maybe Ray Rice will actually be able to rush for over 3 yards per carry this week. And if you want to get really crazy, maybe Joe Flacco will even complete a few passes! Ravens win this one in what will be the high point of their season.

Falcons +6 vs. Seattle – Similar to the Ravens, it’s desperation time for the Falcons. And while they have no running game, no offensive line, a horrible defense, and a wildly overrated quarterback who is completely lost without Julio Jones, I still think they’re going to put up a fight against Seattle this week. Remember, Seattle is much worse on the road, and they haven’t been too hot at home lately either, damn near losing to Greg Schiano and his team of MRSA victims. Take the points here.

Rams +10 @ Colts – The Colts did manage to pull out a come-from-behind win against the Texans last week, but it was hardly impressive. The Trent Richardson trade has been a complete and utter disaster, and other than T.Y. Hilton, Andrew Luck has nobody to throw the ball to. I do think the Colts will win, but it’s hard to lay this many points with them at this point in the season until they prove otherwise.

Giants -7.5 vs. Raiders – For the record, I don’t think the Giants will cover this game, but I can’t go against my “Pick the Giants every week” rule when it has produced such great results so far. No, not in terms of picking the correct team against the spread, but it’s resulted in the Giants being 2-6 to start the season, and I’m not going to mess up a good thing!

Jaguars +13 @ Titans – I seem to say the same thing every week, that the Jaguars can’t go forever without winning a game… or hell, even keeping one close. But I do think this Titans team is the exact kind of opponent the Jaguars can do some things against. The Jags are coming off a bye, and it’s pretty much now or never. I just don’t think the Titans should be laying this many points to anybody, so I’m gonna take the shot here with the winless Jaguars.

Packers +1 vs. Eagles – Having a week to prepare knowing Seneca Wallace will be taking the snaps will make the Packers look wayyyyy better than they did last week against the Bears when he came on in relief. Get ready for a heavy dose of the awesome Eddie Lacy this week against this horrendous Eagles defense. As for the other side of the ball, I don’t care how many touchdowns Nick Foles threw against the Raiders last week. It’s not going to happen again this week in Lambeau Field. Packers win this one going away in what will be my Bet of the Week.

Steelers -3 vs. Bills – Too much pride on the Steelers team to not bounce back and win this game at home after Tom Brady put them over his knee and gave them a spanking on national television last week. I don’t trust EJ Manuel coming back in his first game from injury to go into Pittsburgh and win this game. I’m laying the points with the crappy Steelers here.

Lions PICK @ Bears – I was originally going to take the Bears here based on the whole dome team outdoors and rivalry game stuff, but something just tells me not to do it. I don’t necessarily trust Jay Cutler in his return from injury and I think the Lions defensive line is going to be all over him. I’m taking the Lions in a close one.

49ers -6 vs. Panthers – The 49ers are coming off a bye and had plenty of time to prepare for Cam Newton and this terrific Panthers defense. Yes, I know the Panthers are hot and are playing very well lately, but the 49ers are in a different class. This spread should be at least 3 points higher and the 49ers are going to show why on Sunday. Also, feel free to throw the 49ers into a teaser this week. But more on that later…

Cardinals -2.5 vs. Texans – One of these days people will realize that the Texans just aren’t that good. Last week was pretty much their Super Bowl at home against the Colts, and they totally blew it. Speaking of that game, I was on a crazy hot streak betting on football last week right up until Gary Kubiak went down with his stroke at the start of halftime. Wade Phillips coming in to coach that game was like when a casino tries to cool off your hot run at a blackjack table by bringing in the asshole dealer. That’s what Wade Phillips is. He’s the guy who is brought in to ruin any and all bets you may have on his team. Think about that before having your money touch the Texans this week.

Chargers +7 vs. Broncos – The Chargers completely blew last week’s game in Washington and I think looking ahead to this week against Denver may have had something to do with it. This is the biggest game of their season, and while I would still expect Peyton Manning to pull out a win, I don’t think Denver is going to cover this number in San Diego.

Saints -6.5 vs. Cowboys – The Saints are coming off a pretty horrible loss against the Jets last week, and they can’t be happy about that. Now they’re back in their dome, in prime time, and facing a banged up Cowboys team. Yeah, I’m thinking the Saints are going to be throwing a big party this week on Sunday night and win this one going away. Remember I talked about the 49ers being a great teaser option? Well here’s the second part of that teaser.

Dolphins -1.5 @ Bucs – Hmm.. tough one here. Do I take the league’s biggest circus, or the league’s biggest joke team and coach? Do I take the team facing a huge hazing scandal that had to get rid of two of it’s starting offensive linemen, or do I take the team whose players all hate the coach and had a horrible flesh eating virus infect the roster? Ehhhhhhh… let’s just take the Dolphins and check the score on Tuesday to see if we won this pick because this is basically unwatchable.

Best Bets: Packers +1, Cardinals -2.5, Steelers -3, Lions PK, Ravens +1.5

Teaser of the Week: 2 Team / 6 Point – Saints -0.5, 49ers PICK

Last Week: 8-4-1 Overall, 3-2 Best Bets, 1-0 Teaser of the Week

Season: 59-71-3 Overall, 20-24-1 Best Bets, 10-3 Teasers