TOJ: Week 7 NFL Gambling Advice

Week 7 of the NFL season has arrived and that can only mean one thing around these parts – more losing picks provided by yours truly! But fear not, loyal readers, I’ve made some changes to my strategy this week and I can feel a big week coming. I’ve picked a few games that I feel strongly about myself and for the rest that I have no feel on, I’ve resorted to finding the opinions of some of the NFL pundits whose thoughts I value the least (like Mike Florio, for example) and went against them. That means it’s winning time! Let’s get to it… 

Cardinals +6 vs. Seahawks – (I tweeted out this terrible pick, for the record.) Carson Palmer sucks. Let’s just pretend this pick never happened.

Bucs +7 @ Falcons – The Falcons are missing Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Steven Jackson this week, and they were pretty terrible so far this season with those guys. I’m sorry, but I just can’t lay that many points, even if they’re playing Mike Glennon and Greg Schiano. Speaking of Schiano, I love how he went out and got the best cover cornerback in the NFL and makes him play zone pretty much the entire game. There’s nothing funnier than that.

Redskins PICK vs. Bears – Sure, the Redskins are terrible, there’s no question about that. RG3 looks like a shell of the player who took the NFL by storm as a rookie last year and you’d be hard-pressed to find a worse group of people to be in charge of your team. Mike Shanahan looks lost these days, and his son Fredo does a horrendous job running the offense. Those things are unarguable, but I still like them here in this spot. The Bears barely held on to beat the Giants last week, and now they have to travel to Washington for this game with the Redskins season on the line. I think they do just enough to pull out this win. I like it a lot, maybe even as my top pick of the week (which I’ve actually hit 3 weeks in a row! It’s true!). It’s probably either the Skins or….

Eagles -2.5 vs. Cowboys – The Eagles are a much better team than they were two weeks ago simply because they no longer have dog murderer Michael Vick running the show and all the bad karma that goes along with it. Now people can actually hope for the Eagles to do well with their exciting offense and not feel terrible about rooting for one of the worst people in the world in Mr. Vick. The Cowboys tend to struggle on the road and they’re battling some major injuries all over the place. Eagles win this one convincingly. I’m gonna go ahead and throw a “Best Bet” on this one.

Jets +4  vs. Patriots – You didn’t expect anything else here, did you? I’m a bigger homer when it comes to making these picks than even Bill Simmons.. and that’s saying something. You can read my thoughts on the Jets in this game in my weekly Stock Watch, by the way.

Dolphins -8 vs. Bills – Dolphins off a bye. Bills quarterback is Thad Lewis or maybe even… Matt Flynn?!? On the road? I’m laying the points.

Rams +6.5 @ Panthers – I have nothing to say about this game.

Bengals +2 @ Lions – You know when I said I was going to gather up the thoughts on some games by the “experts” whose opinions I value the least and then go against them? Yeah, they were all picking the LIons this week, so Cincinnati it is! Sure, I don’t trust Andy Dalton on the road… or at home… or on a neutral field… or even to successfully complete one forward pass, but the Bengals defense is really good and Calvin Johnson is hurt. Bengals win this one outright.

Jaguars +7.5 vs. Chargers – The spread on this game dropped immediately as soon as it was released, and here’s why: The Chargers are coming off a huge win on Monday Night Football and now have to travel across country from west to east for a 1:00 game in Jacksonville against the second worst team in the NFL (next to the Giants). The Jaguars meanwhile showed some signs of life against Denver last week and are looking to bring those positive vibes into this week. This has “letdown” written all over it for the Chargers, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jags pick up their first win here.

Titans +4 vs. 49ers – Here we have another west coast team traveling cross-country for a game that looks like they should dominate on paper. Well, the NFL is a weird league sometimes, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Tennessee pulls off the outright win here. The Titans have an underrated defense and Colin Kaepernick has struggled for the most part this season since he has no wide receivers to throw to. EVERYONE is going to be on the 49ers here, and it’s a great spot to go against the grain. Titans to the bank!

Browns +10 @ Packers – If I had to pick one game this week that I thought would land exactly on the number, I would pick this one. The Packers could be without two of their top receivers and could be looking to just grind out a win against the terrible Brandon Weeden. Feel free to throw the Packers into any teasers this week and you should be all set.

Steelers -1 vs. Ravens – This pick doesn’t have much to do with the Steelers beating up on the Jets last week, because I didn’t think they were overly impressive at all, actually. But after watching the Ravens play this year, I can’t in good conscience take them on the road against anybody, let alone a fired up Steelers team in a rivalry game. It’s like in one offseason the Ravens completely forgot how to play offense. Joe Flacco is playing like Joe Flacco (not a compliment), they can’t run the ball AT ALL, and other than Torrey Smith, nobody can catch the ball. Steelers win this one, followed by an annoying week of “Are the Steelers back?” chatter. (The answer is no. No, they aren’t.)

Texans +6.5 @ Chiefs – Here’s a game where there is just no logical reasons whatsoever to pick the Texans. They’re starting someone named Case Keenum at quarterback and are on the road to face the undefeated Chiefs and their terrific defense. This line is begging for people to load up on the Chiefs, but I’m not gonna take the bait. Texans cover.

Colts +6 vs. Broncos – The Colts laid an egg on Monday night because they were looking ahead to this game. They’re going to give everything they have, and Andrew Luck is going to…. wait…. wait…. Jim Irsay said WHAT about Peyton Manning this week? Seriously? Hold on…

Broncos -6 @ Colts – Yeah, forget everything I just wrote. This is more like it. Peyton Manning is going to TORCH the Colts this week. T-O-R-C-H, TORCH them. It could get ugly, and anybody with a Bronco on their fantasy football team should have a big smile on their face. I look forward to the Colts getting their behinds handed to them and Pep Hamilton still calling a ton of run plays down by 30 points. Someone should really let that guy know that he has an excellent quarterback on his team and letting him throw is better than running repeatedly for 3 yards with Trent Richardson. Broncos big.

Giants -3.5 vs. Vikings – I actually think the Vikings will cover this number and probably win the game, but as I said last week, I’ve picked the Giants every week so far this season and every week they went out and lost the game. There is no reason to ruin a good thing, and I’m going to pick the Giants 9 more times after this week, you can count on it. As for the game, The Vikings made a great decision letting Josh Freeman get his feet wet with his new teammates agains the worst team in the league. Freeman is going to play well this week and make Greg Schiano look even worse than he already does down in Tampa Bay

Best Bets: Redskins PK, Eagles -2.5, Jaguars +7.5, Titans +4, Steelers -1

Teaser of the Week: 3 team / 10 Point – Redskins +10, Packers PK, Bengals +12

Last Week: 5-10 Total, 3-2 Best Bets, 2-0 Teasers

Overall: 37-53-2, 13-16-1 on Best Bets