Context Stats: Bryce Petty vs the Dolphins

Edward Gorelik breaks down Bryce Petty’s performance against Miami with his weekly context stats

Statistics let us remove emotional stimuli and focus on the hard truth of what happens. But we need to place statistics into their environment to gain context and understand what’s really happening. Bryce Petty having 60% accuracy doesn’t tell you any information, but 60% accuracy throwing against man coverage gives you something to work with. That’s the purpose of this season-long project. Continue reading “Context Stats: Bryce Petty vs the Dolphins”

Context Stats: Bryce Petty vs the 49ers

Statistics let us remove emotional stimuli and focus on the hard truth of what happens. But we need to place statistics into their environment to gain context and understand what’s really happening. Bryce Petty having 60% accuracy doesn’t tell you any information, but 60% accuracy throwing against man coverage gives you something to work with. That’s the purpose of this season-long project. Continue reading “Context Stats: Bryce Petty vs the 49ers”

Turn On The Jets 12 Pack – Week 14 Roster Evaluation Edition

Joe Caporoso evaluates the New York Jets roster and previews their week 14 game vs. the Minnesota Vikings

For this week’s Turn On The Jets 12 Pack, we will take a quick look at Jets vs. Vikings and move through an evaluation of the team’s current roster, ranked in order of positional strength. Our comment section has been upgraded to Disqus, as you will notice below. Stay tuned for more site updates in the coming months. Finally, how about a free chance to win $100,000 playing weekly fantasy football? Sign up here.

Let’s crack open the unnumbered 12 pack (Winter Ale?)

Continue reading “Turn On The Jets 12 Pack – Week 14 Roster Evaluation Edition”

TOJ Week 14 NFL Gambling Advice and Picks

Week 13 was a pretty crappy schedule from top to bottom and I didn’t have a very good read on it, so I consider myself lucky to have finished 7-8-1 on the week. This week I feel much better about my chances to have a big week and there are actually a few games I absolutely love. Like, love a lot. Love almost as much as Jeff Cumberland loves  dropping passes… ok, well maybe not that much. Let’s got on with the show. Continue reading “TOJ Week 14 NFL Gambling Advice and Picks”

TOJ Week 14 NFL Picks – Extended Edition

TOJ with his week 14 NFL Picks…an extended edition, with a rant for Giants fans

Last Week: 5-10 (yikes)

Season Record: 94-90-5

  • A very important update. Last week a bitter Giants fan who couldn’t stomach some good-natured trash talk about his team’s 4 game losing streak pointed out that between week 10 and 11, the numbers on my season picks were incorrect. After he took the time to organize photographic evidence, it does appear to be true. I accidentally typed a “5” instead of a “6” in front of my losses one week. The number is corrected now. Contrary to some thinking out there from the previously mentioned bitter Giants fan, there was no conspiracy to enhance my record, which is ultimately meaningless, just a simple typo. Why this individual decided to wait until his team lost their fourth straight game to mention this random typo, when he could have mentioned it in our comments section or Facebook Page or Twitter account in the prior 4 weeks is beyond me. So I apologize to anybody out there who was feverishly tracking my record for any reason. There is no grassy knoll assassin, just a typo.

While on the topic of Giants fans, as the trash talking heats up in the holiday season with both teams fighting for their playoff lives and a Christmas Eve showdown on the horizon —

Why do they love referring back to Denver loss? Isn’t it less embarrassing to lose to Tebow on the road on a 3 day week, who is blessed by God and is 6-1 as a starter, than to lose at home to Vince Young and Charlie Whitehurst in the same year?

You want to criticize Rex for making guarantees he hasn’t kept. Fair enough, but know your team does the same thing. Antrel Rolle guaranteed the playoffs last year and they didn’t make it. He did it again this year and the Giants are 6-6.

The Giants haven’t won a game in 32 days.

We can only hope as the trash talks picks up in the coming weeks. People keep it to the teams, and don’t make it personal, although we are anticipating plenty of holidays being ruined at MetLife Stadium on Christmas Eve.

On the to picks…

Pittsburgh (-14.5) vs. Cleveland – Too important for Pittsburgh to slip up…

Indianapolis (16.5) vs. Baltimore – The Colts will lose, but I give them the cover.

Houston (+3) vs. Cincinnati – Considering the direction these two teams have been trending.

Green Bay (12.5) vs. Oakland – 13-0.

Kansas City (+10) vs. Jets – Not comfortable giving the Jets double digits.

Tennessee (+4.5) vs. New Orleans – Jets fans sweat out a scary tight win for the Saints.

Miami (-3) vs. Philadelphia – Two teams going in different directions.

New England (-9.5) vs. Washington – Line should be higher.

Carolina (+3) vs. Atlanta – Upset written all over it.

Arizona (+4.5) vs. San Francisco – They are due for a let-down, right?

Denver (-4) vs. Chicago – One step closer to AFC West title.

San Diego (-7) vs. Buffalo – #BillsMafia

Dallas (-3) vs. Giants – 5 in a row…

Seattle (-5.5) vs. St. Louis – This is really a Monday night game?

Tampa Bay (PK) vs. Jacksonville – zzzz

Minnesota (+8) vs. Detroit – The Lions woes continue.

Jets vs. Dolphins Round 2: 12 Pack Of Predictions

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Time for a bounce back from both the Jets and TOJ, who had just an awful week with the 12 pack last Monday...

1. Shonn Greene is getting 20 carries this week, going over 100 yards, and scoring his second rushing touchdown of the season. It is December. It is time to let #23 lead the charge on offense, like he did during the Jets playoff run last year.

2. Mark Sanchez may have had a bad week against the Patriots, but Chad Henne is having a bad season. Sanchez has demonstrated so far in 2010, what the majority of football analysts didn’t expect to see, that he has a better future as a franchise quarterback than Henne does. Sanchez will decidedly outplay Henne, who will be holding a clipboard somewhere next year.

3. Brandon Marshall won’t have more than 40 yards receiving on Sunday. He got a pass from Revis Island in week 3, but he won’t as lucky this meti.

4. The players who will hurt the Jets defense will be Davone Bess, Brian Hartline, and Anthony Fasano, just like in week 3. All three are going to rack up yards, the key will be for the Jets defense to bend but not break.

5. Braylon Edwards will have a bounce back performance after a shaky outing on Monday night. He has killed the Dolphins in all three of the Jets match-ups with them, since he has been traded over. He will be getting his fourth touchdown in four games against Miami this Sunday.

6. Mark Sanchez won’t throw more than 25 passes. The Jets will have a more run heavy approach than normal this season.

7. The Jets coaching staff will finally relent and give Joe McKnight a few carries that aren’t in garbage time and he will also get a shot on punt or kick returns.

8. Santonio Holmes is ripping off a big punt return of 25 yards or more.

9. Dan Carpenter is going to make all his field goal attempts, while Nick Folk will miss yet another kick he should make. Fortunately, the Dolphins offense will frequently settle for field goals instead of converting in the red-zone.

10. The Jets defense is coming up with at least two turnovers and two sacks this week.

11. The Jets aren’t a clinching a playoff spot this week. Either San Diego or Jacksonville will find a way to win.

12. The Jets are going to win 20-16. The key differences in the game will be Miami constantly settling for field goals and Sanchez outplaying Henne.

Week 14 Picks, Lines from BetUS

  • Raiders (+4) vs. Jaguars
  • Bengals (+8.5) vs. Steelers
  • Patriots (-4.5) vs Bears
  • Browns (PK) vs Bills
  • Giants (-3) vs. Vikings
  • Packers (-7.5) vs. Lions
  • Falcons (-8) vs. Panthers
  • Bucs (-3) vs. Redskins
  • Rams (+8.5) vs. Saints
  • Seahawks (+5) vs. 49ers
  • Broncos (-4) vs. Cardinals
  • Eagles (-4.5) vs. Cowboys
  • Ravens (-3.5) vs. Texans

TOJ NFL Power Rankings: Week 14

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As the Jets tumble down…down…down

1. New England Patriots (10-2) – Flexed their muscle as the NFL’s best team by thrashing the Jets in front of the whole country. If they can take care of business in Chicago, no reason they can’t finish with at least 13 wins.

2. Atlanta Falcons (10-2) – Not as dominant as New England but they find a way to keep winning each week.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) – Gutsy win in Baltimore, puts them in great position for a AFC North title and a bye week.

4. Chicago Bears (9-3) – The Bears have a chance to show they belong in the discussion as the NFL’s best team this week when they host New England.

5. Baltimore Ravens (8-4) – No shame in losing a hard fought game with Pittsburgh and settling for a season split. However, they will likely be stuck in the wild-card again.

6. New Orleans Saints (9-3) – They have kept themselves within striking distance of Atlanta.

7. Green Bay Packers (8-4) – The Packers took care of business this week but after next week’s match-up with Detroit, they have a brutal finish against New England, the Giants, and Chicago.

8. Philadelphia Eagles (8-4) – Need to avoid slipping up against resurgent Cowboys to set stage for showdown with Giants.

9. New York Giants (8-4) – Need to avoid slipping up against resurgent Vikings to set stage for showdown with Eagles.

10. Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) – The Chiefs can bury the Chargers by beating them for the second time this year.

11. New York Jets (9-3) – A little harsh? 45-3. They are lucky to be this high.

12. Tampa Bay Bucs (7-5) – Their inability to beat any team with a winning record will keep them out of the playoffs.

13. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-5) – It is starting to look like they have an actual chance to steal the AFC South.

14. Oakland Raiders (6-6) – Impressive win over San Diego kept their slim playoff chances alive.

15. San Diego Chargers (6-6) – Brutal loss to the Raiders, took a big shot into their playoff hopes. However, they can make up for it by beating the Chiefs this week.

16. Indianapolis Colts (6-6) – If they can’t handle the imploding Titans on Thursday night, than it may be time to throw in the towel on them as a playoff contender.

17. St. Louis Rams (6-6) – Very interested to see how they play the Saints this weekend.

18. Cleveland Browns (5-7) – The Browns should be able to pull to .500 in the next two weeks with games against Buffalo and Cincinnati.

19. Miami Dolphins (6-6) – Can play the role of spoiler by beating the Jets on the road this weekend.

20. Houston Texans (5-7) – Any playoff hope they have left should be buried by Baltimore this week.

21. Minnesota Vikings (5-7) – T-Jack didn’t look so bad out there.

22. Seattle Seahawks (6-6) – It would truly pain me to watch this team in the playoffs this year.

23. Dallas Cowboys (4-8) – Not sure anybody wants to play them the rest of the year.

24. Washington Redskins (5-7) – Their season has quickly turned into an absolute disaster.

25. Tennessee Titans (5-7) – See above.

26. San Francisco 49ers (4-8) – Sadly, could very realistically only be 1 game out of first place after next week.

27. Denver Broncos (3-9) – That Josh McDaniels sideline celebration after moving to 6-0 last year feels like 100 years ago.

28. Buffalo Bills (2-10) – They were due to get blown out…they are a 2-10 team after all.

29. Cincinnati Bengals (2-10) – Time to draft a new quarterback.

30. Detroit Lions (2-10) – Have no idea how to win a football game.

31. Arizona Cardinals (3-9) – One of the hardest teams to watch in recent years.

32. Carolina Panthers (1-11) – No stops on the 1-15 train.