Turn On The Jets Week 1 NFL Staff Picks

The Turn On The Jets staff gives their picks for week 1in the NFL

The Turn On The Jets staff gives their picks for week 1 in the NFL. At the end of the year first place will receive a free steak at Peter Luger’s. Second place? A set of steak knives. Third Prize? You’re fired.

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Turn On The Jets Week 1 Roundtable: Jets/Bills Prediction

The Turn On The Jets staff gives their predictions for Jets/Bills

The TOJ Staff gives their predictions for the New York Jets regular season opener against the Buffalo Bills. Make sure to give everybody a follow on Twitter

Joe Caporoso – 12 Pack

Chris Gross – Jets 19 Bills 10 – Don’t expect this game to be very pretty in terms of offensive fire power. Each of these teams are built on defense and running the ball. The Jets play their first real game in the brand new offensive system of Tony Sparano, while Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills take on a New York defense that seems poised to rank in the top three in the league. The Jets offense will struggle to score touchdowns until it fully gels within the new system, but stellar defensive and special teams play will allow them to win the field position battle and accumulate points through field goals, with a touchdown sprinkled in. Expect either a “TebowCat” TD run from inside the ten, or a play action pass from Sanchez to Keller.

Mike Donnelly – Ahh, the Buffalo Bills. There’s not a team I’d rather see the Jets opening against. After months and months of hearing about how wonderful Buffalo is going to be this year on both sides of the ball, while the Jets are expected to show up in their clown car and just throw in the towel, we get to see both teams actually prove it on the field. WIth or without Sione Po’uha, the Jets defense is going to smother the Bills. You know damn well Rex Ryan has a few special wrinkles saved up for Chan Gailey this week, and I don’t expect Ryan Fitzpatrick to be able to handle them. The Jets offense is NOT as bad as they’ve shown this preseason, and now that the games count you better believe they’re going to open up the playbook and actually, you know, score a touchdown. They’ll do just enough on offense and unleash the hounds on poor Fitzpatrick on defense as the game slowly turns into a rout, something like 27-10. Oh, and expect this guy who wears #24 for the Jets to put all the “Stevie Johnson owns Revis” garbage to rest, once and for all. My official prediction? I’ll let Clubber Lang handle this one –

TJ Rosenthal – Jets win 23-17 if: The Front four remains as physical and quick off the bell as they were against Carolina weeks back. This will allow the  Jets to make the Bills duo of Jackson and Spiller unable to dictate terms. Sanchez will be efficient in this scenario while finding a way to make the big strike at some point. Tebow will move the chains and bring energy to Met Life with a few scintillating runs. Jets lose 27-13 if: The offense looks the way it did all preseason, tiring out a Jets D that had good intentions, but couldn’t rest properly. Eventually caving in after halftime.

Chris Celletti – This game is going to be absolutely excruciating for Jets fans. Not because I think they’ll lose, as you’ll see, but it’s not going to be pretty at all. I still don’t have a ton of confidence in this Jets’ offense. I expect Mark Sanchez to make some really nice throws, hit a few intermediate plays and try some deep throws, but I don’t expect a huge statistical output and I’d be shocked if he doesn’t throw a pick (and at what point that pick comes and the context of it is going to determine the circus factor in MetLife). Tim Tebow and the Wildcat will prove to be efficient, but since the Jets’ offensive line struggled in the preseason on standard running plays, I don’t see them opening up huge holes for Tebow to make a big play. I think both offenses will struggle, especially the Bills as I think the Jets’ D has a big day. The Jets do find a way to score a few touchdowns in a defense/field position battle, and the panic button goes away for at least a week. Jets 20, Bills 16

Rob Celletti– It’s not surprising that of the 16 games on the NFL Week 1 slate, Jets/Bills has the lowest over/under number (39, half a point lower than what promises to be an unwatchable clash between Minnesota and Jacksonville), and still, I’d take the under. It’s not going to be pretty, folks.  The Jets will run the ball, and they’ll punt.  Sanchez will take some sacks, and they’ll punt.  But the defense will not only hold, but dominate, and the Jets offense will find a rhythm at some point.  Look for the offense to score points when they start with a short field, via turnovers or an explosive special teams play.  Mark Sanchez will get this team into the endzone twice, and the Jets will win the game 20-13.  The statistics won’t be pretty, but 1-0 will be

Turn On The Jets Week 1 NFL Picks

The TOJ Staff submits their picks for week 1 of the NFL…the race for steak begins

The Turn On The Jets staff will be submitting their picks against the spread on a weekly basis. We will be tracking our weekly records so you know where to turn for your gambling advice. At the end of the season our staff will be gathering for a meal at Peter Lugers in Brooklyn, with the overall winner receiving a free meal. Let the race for steak begin! #RaceForSteak –

Joe Caporoso

Season Record: 0-1

  • Bears (-10) over Colts
  • Eagles (-9.5) over Browns
  • Jets (-3) over Bills
  • Saints (-8.5) over Redskins
  • Patriots (-5) over Titans
  • Jaguars (+3.5) over Vikings
  • Texans (-11.5) over Dolphins
  • Lions (-8.5) over Rams
  • Falcons (-3) over Chiefs
  • Packers (-5) over 49ers
  • Panthers (-3) over Bucs
  • Seahawks (-3) over Cardinals
  • Steelers (+1.5) over Broncos
  • Bengals (+6.5) over Ravens
  • Raiders (-1.5) over Chargers

Rob Celletti

Season Record: 1-0

  • Colts (+10) over Bears
  • Eagles (-9.5) over Browns
  • Jets (-3) over Bills
  • Saints (-8.5) over Redskins
  • Patriots (-5) over Titans
  • Vikings (-3.5) over Jaguars
  • Texans (-11.5) over Dolphins
  • Lions (-8.5) over Rams
  • Chiefs (+3) over Falcons
  • Packers (-5) over 49ers
  • Panthers (-3) over Buccaneers
  • Cardinals (+3) over Seahawks
  • Steelers (+1.5) over Broncos
  • Bengals (+6.5) over Ravens
  • Chargers (+1.5) over Raiders
Season Record: 0-1
  • Colts (+9.5)
  • Eagles (-9.5)
  • Jets (-3)
  • Saints (-8)
  • Patriots (-5.5)
  • Jaguars (+3.5)
  • Houston (-11.5)
  • Lions (-8)
  • Chiefs (+3)
  • 49ers (+5)
  • Panthers (-3)
  • Seahawks (-3)
  • Steelers (+1.5)
  • Ravens (-6.5)
  • Chargers (+1.5)

Season Record: 0-1

  • Chicago (-10) vs. Indianapolis
  • Philadelphia (-9.5) at Cleveland
  • Jets (-3) vs.Buffalo
  • New Orleans (-8.5) vs. Washington
  • New England (-5) at Tennessee
  • Jacksonville (+3.5) at Minnesota
  • Miami (+11.5) at Houston
  • Detroit (-8.5) vs. St. Louis
  • Kansas City (+3) vs. Atlanta
  • 49ers (+5) at Green Bay
  • Tampa Bay (+3) vs. Carolina
  • Seattle (-3) vs. Arizona
  • Pittsburgh (+1.5) at Denver
  • Cincinnati (+6.5) at Baltimore
  • San Diego (+1.5) at Oakland

Mike Donnelly 

Season Record: 0-1

  • Colts +10
  • Browns +9.5
  • Jets -3
  • Saints -8.5
  • Titans +4
  • Minnesota -3.5
  • Houston -11.5
  • St. Louis +8.5
  • KC +3
  • Packers -5
  • Bucs +3
  • Cards +3
  • Broncos -1.5
  • Ravens -6.5
  • Raiders -1.5

NFL Week 1 Bets: The Opening Week Crapshoot

Chris Celletti submits his best bets for week 1 of the NFL season

Oh brother, here we go.

It’s Week 1 of the NFL season, and nobody knows what the hell will happen, which makes gambling on the league this week all sorts of frustrating and fun at the same time. You’re just as likely to hit something that seemed like a reach than you are to miss on a perceived no-brainer. Betting on NFL games is a total toss up to begin with, but it’s even crazier in the opening weeks before teams settle into their own. In that way, Week 1 is a bit like the opening round of the NCAA tournament.

Even if you’re talking about games without a point spread*, Week 1 is tough to forecast. Yeah, it might sound crazy unlikely, but would anyone be completely and utterly shocked if the Browns beat the Eagles on Sunday? I mean, sure, the Eagles are a better team and will probably win, but they’re still coached by Andy Reid…which makes any scenario possible. Every Week 1 sees one team who was supposed to be a Super Bowl contender start off with an epic crapfest, so why can’t that be the Eagles this week? Or the Patriots? Or the Saints? It will happen to someone.

*Sorry for the Grantlandish footnote-y thing here, but I have a quick aside: I hear a lot of people complain about the various NFL pregame shows picking games without the spread. And it’s not just idiot fans too, it’s radio hosts like Joe Beningo who are like “Bro, BRO… come on, how easy is it to pick games without a spread?!” when talking about the NFL Today or Fox’s pregame show or whatever. This is one of the most mindless complaints ever. You know why Bill Cowher doesn’t make his picks against the spread? Because actual, real life NFL football is NOT played with a point spread! Football analysts are there to break down actual, in between the lines football.  When the Jets take the field on Sunday against the Bills, the game will NOT kick off with the Bills already up 3-0 (and thank the lord for that). So go on Dan Marino, Keyshawn Johnson and Terry Bradshaw and make your non-spread picks. I have no problem with it. Plus, join a survivor pool and see how easy it is to pick games without a spread.

On that note, here are my three picks for the week, of course, against the spread.

Lions -8.5 vs. Rams – I’ve seen this line at -7.5 or even -7 in some other places, but either way I’ll take the Lions. Now, I don’t have a ton of confidence in the Lions overall this year, because if there’s any franchise that can screw up the momentum of last year and a good young quarterback with a can’t-miss wide receiver, its the Detroit Lions. But for this week, I like them at home against the Rams for one main reason; Brian Schottenheimer. Yes, our great old buddy from the Jets’ sidelines is running the Rams’ offense this season. And he actually has less offensive talent on this squad than he ever had with the Jets, and we saw how dynamic Gang Green’s offense was under his guidance this past half decade. Add in the fact that this offense employs the likes of Wayne Hunter and Matthew Mulligan, I mean, how in the hell are the Rams going to stay within 10 points of a team that threw for 5,000 yards last year in their building? Not happening.

Patriots -5 at Tennessee

Five points? That’s it? You’re telling me the  Patriots won’t beat the Titans by a touchdown? Believe me, just like every other writer on this site I’m rooting for Tennessee, but I’m not holding my breath. Too much Tom Brady, who will have a killer day throwing to his new toy Brandon Lloyd on the outside and to Vinny and Ronnie Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski down the seams. The Patriots D isn’t great but I think they’ll be ahead enough early to render Chris Johnson useless.

Chiefs +3 vs. Falcons

The Falcons are one of those teams I talked about above, one that has big expectations coming into the season and could fall flat on its face in Week 1. I don’t like the Falcons outdoors, on the road in a hostile situation against a solid defense. Here are Matt Ryan’s QB ratings the past four season while playing outdoors: 94.2 (the outlier), 76.2, 80.3, and 79.1. His numbers are even worse on grass. I like the Chiefs in an upset outright, so I’ll gladly take the three points.

Bonus Non-Football Bets of The Weekend: Did you know two of the top pound-for-pound boxers in the world, in their primes, are fighting each other on Saturday for free on HBO? No! No you didn’t know, because you have no idea who Andre Ward or Chad Dawson are, even though you’re clearly a sports fan if you’re on this site. That’s how horridly boring these two are outside of the ring (and sometimes inside the ring too). Ward is the world’s best Super Middleweight (168 pounds) while Dawson is the best at 175, and the fight will be for Ward’s WBC and ring belts. Dawson isn’t a huge puncher, so going down in weight shouldn’t hinder him too much. With a six and half inch reach advantage and a two inch height advantage, I like Dawson  in a pretty big upset at +265.

TOJ Week 1 NFL Picks

Lines taken from BET US

Pittsburgh (PK) vs. Baltimore – The Ravens can never seem to get over the hump versus the Steelers and I don’t think that will change this week.

Detroit (PK) vs. Tampa Bay – Plenty of hype surrounding these two young teams, the Lions can overcome that vicious Tampa Bay home-field advantage.

Atlanta (-3.5) vs. Chicago – There is some buzz about the Bears upsetting the Falcons this week, who are a popular Super Bowl pick. I just don’t see it.

Buffalo (+6) vs. Kansas City – The Chiefs aren’t returning to the playoffs this year and the Bills will be better than people expect.

Houston (-8.5) vs. Indianapolis – The Colts are a one man team and that man is hurt.

St. Louis (+4.5) vs. Philadelphia – Tons of pressure on Philadelphia out of the gate, against an improving young St. Louis team on the road sounds like an upset to me.

Cleveland (-7.5) vs. Cincinnati – The Browns should get off to a strong start this year considering their schedule.

Tennessee (+1) vs. Jacksonville – Watch out for the Titans in the suddenly depleted AFC South.

Washington (+3) vs. New York Giants – Jersey’s JV team gets off to an ugly start.

Carolina (+7.5) vs. Arizona – The Panthers will keep this tight and maybe steal a late win to kick off the Cam Newton era.

San Francisco (-5) vs. Seattle – Man, I hate the NFC West.

Minnesota (+8.5) vs. San Diego – Upset alert.

New York Jets (-5) vs. Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys are too banged up to pull the upset in this one.

New England (-7.5) vs. Miami – The game would be blacked out if the 15,000 Patriots fans didn’t show up.

Oakland (+3) vs. Denver – Crazy to have faith in the Raiders? Against Denver, I don’t think so.