NFL Gambling Guide to the Conference Championship Games

The NFL Conference Championship Games have arrived and while we couldn’t have asked for two better games and both should be awesome, it’s also a pretty sad day. It’s pretty much the last day of football for a while and that means the end of betting on football, which is extremely sad. What isn’t sad, though, is this awesome run I’ve been on picking games, over/unders, and props lately. Since the playoffs began I’m on a 26-11 run and I’m hoping to get one more good week out of this run to end the season on a really strong note. I told you I was going to pull a Joe Flacco and I’m almost there. Let’s get to it! Continue reading “NFL Gambling Guide to the Conference Championship Games”

NFL Gambling Guide to the Divisional Playoffs

I hope everyone didn’t give up on me after a so-so regular season, because just like Joe Flacco and Eli Manning I turned from a crappy regular season player into a superstar once the playoffs began! I hit games, over/unders, and player props to the tune of 12-4 total and a surprising 5-0 on my “best bets”. I’m not patting myself on the back just yet, though (ok maybe just a little), because there is still plenty of work to be done. I’m looking to carry last week’s success into this week, and just like the aforementioned quarterbacks, soon everyone will be calling me elite for no reason whatsoever. Ok, probably not, but still…. Continue reading “NFL Gambling Guide to the Divisional Playoffs”

NFL Wild Card Weekend: Point Spreads, Picks, and Props

The regular season has ended, and after a rough start to the season picking games, I rallied a bit to finish at a not-too-pathetic 122-126-7 overall for the season. More disappointing was my Best Bets record, which finished at a paltry 40-42-3. Oh well. Hopefully I can follow up a mediocre season full of horrible screw-ups with an awesome playoff run, make everyone forget that I stunk all year, and then inexplicably get paid $120 million like I’m Joe Flacco or something. That would be cool, huh? Let’s get started! Continue reading “NFL Wild Card Weekend: Point Spreads, Picks, and Props”

TOJ- The New York Jets & The AFC Playoff Picture Entering Week 11

The New York Jets are coming off of their bye week now entering the stretch run in full control of their playoff destiny. Thanks to the Jacksonville Jaguars upset win over the Tennessee Titans in Week 10, the road appears quite easier for Gang Green. With 7 games remaining in the regular season, the Jets schedule becomes much more manageable than it was during the first half of the season as they face only one team with a .500 or better record (the week 15 match up against the Carolina Panthers). Let’s look at the updated playoff picture heading into Week 11.

Continue reading “TOJ- The New York Jets & The AFC Playoff Picture Entering Week 11”

TOJ- New York Jets & The AFC Playoff Picture Entering Week 10

To quote Heath Ledger’s iconic turn as The Joker, “and….here….we…go.” That dreaded “P” word has started to crop up around Florham Park. Yes, the New York Jets stand in control of their playoff destiny entering the bye week. They sport a 5-4 record featuring signature wins against the New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, and Atlanta Falcons. If the regular season ended today, the New York Jets would travel to Indianapolis to take on the AFC North leading Colts. The Jets also have a realistic chance at the AFC East title as they only trail New England by 2 games and face the easier schedule. We at TOJ felt that, with seven weeks left in the season, Jets fans would appreciate updated playoff scenarios on a weekly basis. Let’s get right to it.

NOTE: “WInnable Games” – I don’t think any game is winnable in this league full of parity but I am going with the assumption that, more often than not, the better team will win. 

Continue reading “TOJ- New York Jets & The AFC Playoff Picture Entering Week 10”

New York Jets Playoff Pipe Dream – Week 11 Hail Mary Edition

You still think the New York Jets have a chance at the playoffs, don’t you…you crazy SOB?

You are a sick person aren’t you? Sure, you have appropriately ripped your New York Jets all week to anybody who would listen. Sure, you swear you won’t waste time watching another game. But we all know that you will. You will be glued to your TV at 1 PM this Sunday, wondering in an anxious horror if your football team can truly get any worse…or if maybe, just maybe they could have some professional pride and show signs of life.

You are even thinking way in the back of your head…hey, the Colts and Patriots are playing this week, one of them has to lose right? The Steelers are playing with Byron Leftwich at quarterback the next 4-5 games, what if they start losing because Leftwich…well is, Leftwich. Look at how easy our schedule is!

Let me be the first to tell you that you need help buddy. But let me also be the first to guide your crazy aspirations in a well-structured article.

There are three main teams you should focus on in your crazy hopes: Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and New England. The Jets are currently three games behind all of them and only hold a tie-breaker as of right now with the Colts. Yes, there are other teams between them in the standings but for the time being let’s hold on to the thought that San Diego, Cincinnati, Oakland, Miami, Tennessee and Buffalo will all finish 8-8 or worse.

In terms of catching the Colts, the Jets would have to finish 6-1 (!) and have the Colts finish 3-4. Indy finishes with the following schedule –

  • At New England
  • Vs Buffalo
  • At Detroit
  • Vs Tennessee
  • At Houston
  • At Kansas City
  • Vs Houston

Not that easy. Yet, keep in mind Houston could be resting starters in those two games, particularly in the week 17 game. The hope here is that Indy is a young team who hasn’t played particularly well on the road.

The Jets currently don’t have the tie-breaker with Pittsburgh but it isn’t inconceivable that they could get it. They are currently 3-4 in the AFC and Pittsburgh is 3-3. If the Jets win 6 of their last 7 (!) and Pittsburgh finishes 3-4, they’d likely have the tie-breaker. Here are the Steelers final 7 games –

  • Vs Baltimore
  • At Cleveland
  • At Baltimore
  • Vs San Diego
  • At Dallas
  • Vs Cincinnati
  • Vs Cleveland

This schedule really isn’t that bad on paper but with Leftwich under center who knows?

Finally, the mighty Patriots who are ready to roll to another AFC East crown. Obviously the Jets need to beat them head to head and beat Buffalo at the end of the season, along with hope New England loses another division game and then a few more conference games…basically this ain’t happening unless something screwy goes on in Foxboro. Here are their final 7 –

  • Vs Indy
  • At Jets
  • At Miami
  • Vs Houston
  • Vs San Francisco
  • At Jacksonville
  • Vs Miami

In the real world, you are probably looking at a 5-2 type finish for the Patriots that gets them to 11-5. It actually isn’t that crazy to think either the Steelers or Colts will finish 9-7, what is crazy is to think the Jets could win 6 of their last 7 with the way they are playing right now.

New York Jets Playoff Pipe Dream – Week 10 Viewing Guide

The New York Jets playoff pipe dream viewing guide for week 10

The Turn On The Jets playoff pipe dream guide is back for another week. We saw a little positive progress last week as the Jets actually moved from 12th to 10th in the AFC. The beauty of inactivity! Before we get into it, we have a few more tid-bits from a former NFL personnel executive who still works in the league – 

On Mike Tannenbaum’s job security – “The GM has the owner convinced that he isn’t at fault. He will play the Revis and Holmes injury card and plus he can play the Blame Rex game. He is brilliant at that.” (Translation – as we have been saying all along, Tannenbaum isn’t going anywhere next year).

On Tim Tebow – “He commands zero value on the market. It will not be easy at all to find a team to take him off the Jets hands this off-season…including Jacksonville.”

The Current Standings

  1. Houston (7-1)
  2. Baltimore (6-2)
  3. New England (5-3)
  4. Denver (5-3)
  5. Indianapolis (5-3)
  6. Pittsburgh (5-3)
  7. San Diego (4-4)
  8. Miami (4-4)
  9. Oakland (3-5)
  10. Jets (3-5)
  11. Buffalo (3-5)
  12. Cincy (3-5)
  13. Tennessee (3-6)
  14. Cleveland (2-7)
  15. Jacksonville (1-7)
  16. Kansas City (1-7)

Week 10 Viewing Guide

Indianapolis (5-3) at Jacksonville (1-7) – Who is ready to root for Blaine Gabbert tonight? A few reasons for optimism on the upset: Jacksonville’s only win this season was against the Colts, these Thursday night games are always a little screwy and the Colts are much better at home than on the road. Have I convinced you yet?

NY Giants (6-3) at Cincinnati (3-5) – Thanks for the help last week against Pittsburgh Eli. You picked a great time to tank in the fourth quarter. The Giants can’t lose this game, can they?

Tennessee (3-6) at Miami (4-4) – Jake Locker is back in the starting line-up and we are ready to root for him. This would be a pretty crippling loss for the Dolphins with New England still on the schedule twice and a trip to San Francisco on the way.

Buffalo (3-5) at New England (5-3) – The AFC East race would be tightened with a Bills win. The Bills season would be over with a loss. Sort of a win-win. I can’t see Buffalo winning this game or even keeping it close for that matter.

San Diego (3-5) at Tampa Bay (4-4) – Go Muscle Hamster! It is hard not to like the Bucs here. Let the Chargers implosion start as soon as possible.

Oakland (3-5) at Baltimore (6-2) – Somewhat similar situation to the Buffalo/New England game. A Baltimore loss tightens the AFC and could lead to a late season slide for them. A loss for Oakland could basically eliminate them.

Houston (7-1) at Chicago (7-1) – Why would a Bears win be important? You don’t want Houston pulling away and resting starters in their late season games against the Colts, which the Jets will need them to lose.

Thursday Night TOJ Picks

  • Joe – Jax (+3)
  • Mike – Jax (+3)
  • Chris C – Ind (-3)
  • Rob – Ind (-3)
  • Chris G – Ind (-3)

Recapping A Successful Jets Sunday: We’re Going Streaking!

TOJ on the Jets prospects for continuing their steak to an improbable playoff spot

Sometimes you just have one of those Sundays where everything breaks the right way. Today was one of those days for the New York Jets. Left for dead at 5-5, the Jets have put together three straight wins and received the necessary help along the way to make the following reality: win their last three games and make the playoffs. It took an unbelievable comeback from Houston and a last second stop from New Orleans, but the help was given.

The next three games won’t be nearly as easy as the last three, but the opportunity is there and the road starts next Sunday in Philadelphia. Here are the current AFC standings, with the tie-breakers:

Yes, the Jets might be able to get in as a 10-6 team but considering how their tie-breakers are looking, it isn’t likely. It is probably coming down to the Jets continuing to streak…all the way to six straight wins to put themselves in the postion of being the AFC’s final wild card team, which as of right now would put them in New England in the first round. How about that match-up?

Do they have three more wins in them?

Halfway There: Jets Destroy Chiefs, Move Closer To Playoffs

The New York Jets destroyed the Kansas City Chiefs and thanks to some help moved much closer to a playoff spot

The real drama so far today didn’t take place inside MetLife Stadium where the New York Jets steamrolled the Kansas City Chiefs, 37-10. It took place in Cincinnati, where T.J. Yates produced a game winning touchdown drive in the final seconds to give Houston a victory and in Tennessee where the Saints defense held at the end of the game, to escape with a 22-17 win. The Jets took care of their business and received the help they need. It will only take either a Green Bay win over Oakland (they are up 14-0 as I type this) or a Chicago win over Denver to control their playoff destiny.

Let’s talk about that business that the Jets handled today. Offense? They went right down the field on the first drive for a touchdown and tacked on three more in the first half to make this one a laugher by the time the teams hit the locker room after the second quarter. It is December, when the games matter more, so you know Mark Sanchez and Shonn Greene were bringing their “A” game. Sanchez went 13/21 for 181 yards with 2 touchdowns and also tacked on 2 rushing touchdowns for good measure. Greene continued his recent tear, rushing for 129 yards on 24 carries with another touchdown. He also added 58 yards receiving.

You have to give Brian Schottenheimer credit for the game plan today, which made good use of the screen game and his running backs as receivers. LaDainian Tomlinson added 50 receiving yards and a touchdown. Dustin Keller was involved early with 4 first half receptions and Santonio Holmes caught his 7th touchdown of the season. The only complaint could be on a pair of first half sacks allowed. The offensive line must be more consistent, with the Eagles and Giants pass rush on the horizon.

On defense. There isn’t much to it. The Jets completed dominated an inept Kansas City offense. They finished with five sacks, a safety and an interception. Unfortunately, the interception came at the price of liking losing safety Jim Leonhard to an ankle injury for the rest of the season. This will be a difficult injury to overcome, considering how reliable he is on punt return and his knowledge of the defense at safety. It will be on Jeremy Kerley to step up as a punt returner and not muff any kicks and on Brodney Pool and Eric Smith to handle an extended roll on defense.

Thanks to a timely 3 game winning streak. The Jets are a 6-1 team at home and will now very likely sit in complete control of their destiny when it comes to making the playoffs. What else can you ask for at this point of the year, considering some of the losses they have suffered this season?

Thoughts On The NFL Playoff Picture

TOJ breaks down the NFL playoff picture heading into week 13

A look at the NFL playoff picture with only five games remaining in the season…

AFC

  1. Houston (8-3)
  2. New England (8-3)
  3. Baltimore (8-3)
  4. Oakland (7-4)
  5. Pittsburgh (8-3)
  6. Cincinnati (7-4)
  7. Denver (6-5)
  8. Jets (6-5)
  9. Tennessee (6-5)

I don’t think anybody in their right mind expects Houston to stick around as the top seed or even get a first round bye with the carousel of T.J. Yates, Kellen Clemens, and Jake Delhomme at quarterback. However, they should hold on for their division title and probably even the number three seed. What a dream match-up that would be for the number six seed (certainly if it happens to be our Jets). Considering their tie-breaker advantage and how the remaining schedules look, Baltimore should win the AFC North with Pittsburgh taking the top wild-card seed. The battle for last wild-card spot should go down to the wire. The Jets have the advantage in terms of schedule, but Cincinnati is a better team right now and Denver has God on their side.

NFC

  1. Green Bay (11-0)
  2. San Francisco (9-2)
  3. New Orleans (8-3)
  4. Dallas (7-4)
  5. Chicago (7-4)
  6. Atlanta (7-4)
  7. Detroit (7-4)
  8. Giants (6-5)

I would expect the top four seeds to remain the same, just based on schedule and how those teams are trending. Atlanta is the favorite to get at least one wild-card spot as they should finish at a minimum of 10-6 with a remaining schedule of: Houston, Carolina, Jacksonville, New Orleans and Atlanta. The Giants look to be free-falling as usual. Even without Jay Cutler, Chicago should be able to reach 10 wins with Minnesota, Seattle, and Kansas City still on the schedule. Detroit still has to play New Orleans and Green Bay and looks to be falling off.