First a few updates:
1. Follow Turn On The Jets on Facebook and Twitter (@TurnOnTheJets). Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at (http://www.youtube.com/user/turn0nthejets).
2. The Jets are back to two a days tomorrow all the way through Saturday. Pre-Season kicks off next Monday against the Giants. Hard Knocks premieres this Wednesday at 10 PM.
What Will LaDainian Tomlinson’s Production In 2010 Be?
Today on twitter I sent Peter King of Sports Illustrated a question about LaDainian Tomlinson. Would he finish with over or under 900 total offensive yards in 2010? King responded the under. I wasn’t shocked by this, considering King has been on record stating his belief that Shonn Greene will be a 1,400 yard back. I am assuming he doesn’t think Tomlinson will get the workload to attain those type of numbers. Beyond King, I quickly had seven other responses agreeing that Tomlinson would either be under or way under 900 total offensive yards. Immediately after the Tomlinson acquisition I would have felt the same way. However, my opinion on his level of production in 2010 has began to shift slightly, to the point where I think he will exceed 900 offensive yards.
Tomlinson’s production as a receiver will be the primary reason he hits that number. Brian Schottenheimer likes involving the running backs in the passing game but was hamstrung last year by the Leon Washington’s injury. I am looking for Tomlinson to closely mirror Washington’s 47 receptions for 355 yards in 2008, if not have slightly more yards. Shonn Greene is relatively inept as a pass catcher out of the backfield and Joe McKnight appears to be a long way from being a contributing member of the Jets offense. Tomlinson is going to be catching a ton of screens, check downs, and swing passes and will also frequently be split out. The first play of the Jets Green and White scrimmage was a 70 yard touchdown pass from Mark Sanchez to Tomlinson, with him lined up at split end. Hopefully, Tomlinson can continue to take advantage of mismatches when linebackers are trying to cover him.
On the rushing end of things, Tomlinson should be able to reach 500 yards. Shonn Greene is going to be the workhorse but you will still see Tomlinson on third downs, a few series each half, and in some short yardage/goal-line situations. I don’t know if he will have a much improved yards per carry from last year in San Diego. Yet, let’s assume Tomlinson is averaging 10 carries per game and finishes with 160 total carries on the season. If he averages 3.5 yards per carry, he will finish up with 560 rushing yards.
Look for Tomlinson to be in the 350-400 yard range on receiving yards and 550-600 yard range on rushing yards. I will take the over on Tomlinson at 900 total offensive yards, but not by much.
Stock Report One Week Into Training Camp
Up – Mark Brunell – The veteran looks like he is running away with the backup spot to Mark Sanchez.
Down – David Clowney – He had a case of the drops on day one and missed the last two practices for personal reasons. I hope all is well with Clowney and his family but he could end up on the outside looking in at the Jets crowded receiver position.
Up – Matt Slauson – The second year player has impressed in the battle for the starting left guard spot with his physicality and knowledge of the offense. He is on his way to pulling off an upset and keeping second round pick Vladmir Ducasse on the bench.
Down – Dwight Lowery – He is struggling opposite Antonio Cromartie in the starting lineup at cornerback. The longer Darrelle Revis holds out, the more time Kyle Wilson will get on the outside instead of in the slot.
Up – Antonio Cromartie – He has impressed with athleticism and ball skills.
Down – Kellen Clemens – I don’t think he will be around much longer.
Up – Braylon Edwards – Edwards and Santa Clause like beard continue to have a strong off-season.
Down – Mike Tannenbaum/Darrelle Revis – August 10th is the day to watch. If Revis doesn’t report he loses a year towards free agency.