Initial Reaction – 48 Points And A Barrel Of Laughs, Jets 1-0

The New York Jets rolled to a 48-28 win…thoughts on how they handled Buffalo

While we are happy to say we told you so about the Buffalo Bills being overhyped and the New York Jets remaining the second best team in the AFC East, we certainly can’t say we saw that coming. 48 points? Special teams touchdowns? The Jets looking like a high functioning NFL offense for an entire game? Today was a fun one at MetLife Stadium. Fun, because today demonstrated just how good this team could be and just how ridiculous all the negative pre-season hype around the team was.

Let’s start at the top, with the most important positon on the field and the most important player on the Jets roster not named Darrelle Revis…Mark Sanchez. Outside of a bonehead interception in the first quarter that had Twitter ablaze with cheap shots, Sanchez was as accurate as we’ve ever seen him, consistently fitting passes into tight windows and pushing the football down the field. Credit Tony Sparano for an aggressive game plan but credit Sanchez for dropping in some gems. He effectively spread the ball around, completing passes to 7 different receivers and showing tremendous comfort with rookie Stephen Hill. When you protect Sanchez, he can make all the throws necessary to win in the NFL.

The Jets wide receivers took a beating all summer, particularly Hill who many people claimed wasn’t ready for a big time role. He silenced those critics by turning in a monster 5 catch, 89 yard, 2 touchdown performance. Hill is a faster, bigger version of Braylon Edwards who Sanchez was extremely comfortable with in 2009 and 2010. Jeremy Kerley also got himself out of Rex Ryan’s doghouse with a 4 catches for 45 yards, a receiving touchdown an electric punt return touchdown. If they can stay consistent, the Jets offense has a ceiling much higher than anybody expected.

Austin Howard deserves to be singled out for praise. Mario Williams laid a goose egg today and Buffalo’s pass rush in general did absolutely nothing. The whole line deserves credit but Howard just recently stepped into a starting role and has the most prove. He was more than up to the challenge against Buffalo’s much hyped personnel.

Defensively, it was playmaking. The Jets made Ryan Fitzpatrick look every bit the overpaid, mediocre quarterback he is by intercepting him three times and taking one back to the house (we have been waiting for that defensive TD Cro!). Yes, the running defense and the lack of sacks was a mild disappointment but ultimately when the game was still in question, the defense routinely made game changing plays. LaRon Landry seemed to be in on every tackle and there is no question the tandem of him and Yeremiah Bell are a major upgrade from last year’s safeties.

The Jets and their fans have every right to enjoy this one. It was a statement victory in the division. However, there will be an even better chance to turn some heads this week in Pittsburgh. The talent is there to win, but will the consistency be there?

Check back tomorrow for No Huddle, a full Report Card and a closer look at Sanchez’s performance

Turn On The Jets 12 Pack, Week 1 – Jets vs. Bills

A 12 pack of predictions for the Jets/Bills week 1 match-up

The 2012 NFL season is off to a beautiful start. Yes, the Giants beat the Jets last year and won the Super Bowl. Did that prevent you from enjoying David Wilson and Mathias Kiwanuka’s tears or the disappointed faces of the bandwagon Giants fans who just bought their jersey the day before in the bar on Wednesday? Of course not. Week 1 is here and with that comes 12 likely inaccurate predictions about the Jets first game, against the Fredo of the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills.

1. Stevie Johnson will have under 50 yards receiving and not score a touchdown. You think Darrelle Revis isn’t keyed up for this game after hearing all week how Johnson is the only receiver who has figured out how to beat him? Look for Revis to get after Johnson at the line of scrimmage and to be in his ear all game. I wouldn’t be surprised if he baited him into a personal foul at some point.

2. Shonn Greene will be the game’s leading rusher. The Jets have had Fred Jackson’s number over the past few years and it doesn’t look like many players will be running successfully on them throughout 2012. Greene should be good for 20+ carries and somewhere between 80 and 95 yards.

3. Let’s get this out of the way – Tebow: 6 carries, 34 yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 0/1 passing. After the rushing touchdown I expect to see a ray of light shining down on the swamps of North Jersey and the local sewage to smell of sweet roses.

4. Mark Sanchez – An efficient, productive game that won’t light up the stat sheet. Get used to them. 16/22, 195 yards, 1 touchdown, no turnovers.

5. CJ Spiller is the player on the Buffalo offense who is going to do the most damage, particularly catching passes out of the backfield. Look for him to rip off at least one big play that leads directly to points.

6. The Jets defense will sack Ryan Fitzpatrick three times and force a pair of turnovers, including one that results in a Jets score.

7. Mario Williams will have a sack in his debut for the Bills. However, Austin Howard will do a decent enough job to prevent him or Mark Anderson from taking the game over.

8. Stephen Hill will have 3 catches for 55 yards in his rookie debut.

9. Santonio Holmes will lead the Jets in catches and yards.

10. Dustin Keller will have a quiet game as he battles a hamstring injury. Jeff Cumberland will struggle with extended reps.

11.Bilal Powell will have less than 25 total offensive yards.

12. The Jets are going to win an ugly, defensive dominated 20-10 game. They won’t put it away until the 4th quarter behind their rushing attack and defense, which force a key late turnover.

NFL Week 1 Bets: The Opening Week Crapshoot

Chris Celletti submits his best bets for week 1 of the NFL season

Oh brother, here we go.

It’s Week 1 of the NFL season, and nobody knows what the hell will happen, which makes gambling on the league this week all sorts of frustrating and fun at the same time. You’re just as likely to hit something that seemed like a reach than you are to miss on a perceived no-brainer. Betting on NFL games is a total toss up to begin with, but it’s even crazier in the opening weeks before teams settle into their own. In that way, Week 1 is a bit like the opening round of the NCAA tournament.

Even if you’re talking about games without a point spread*, Week 1 is tough to forecast. Yeah, it might sound crazy unlikely, but would anyone be completely and utterly shocked if the Browns beat the Eagles on Sunday? I mean, sure, the Eagles are a better team and will probably win, but they’re still coached by Andy Reid…which makes any scenario possible. Every Week 1 sees one team who was supposed to be a Super Bowl contender start off with an epic crapfest, so why can’t that be the Eagles this week? Or the Patriots? Or the Saints? It will happen to someone.

*Sorry for the Grantlandish footnote-y thing here, but I have a quick aside: I hear a lot of people complain about the various NFL pregame shows picking games without the spread. And it’s not just idiot fans too, it’s radio hosts like Joe Beningo who are like “Bro, BRO… come on, how easy is it to pick games without a spread?!” when talking about the NFL Today or Fox’s pregame show or whatever. This is one of the most mindless complaints ever. You know why Bill Cowher doesn’t make his picks against the spread? Because actual, real life NFL football is NOT played with a point spread! Football analysts are there to break down actual, in between the lines football.  When the Jets take the field on Sunday against the Bills, the game will NOT kick off with the Bills already up 3-0 (and thank the lord for that). So go on Dan Marino, Keyshawn Johnson and Terry Bradshaw and make your non-spread picks. I have no problem with it. Plus, join a survivor pool and see how easy it is to pick games without a spread.

On that note, here are my three picks for the week, of course, against the spread.

Lions -8.5 vs. Rams – I’ve seen this line at -7.5 or even -7 in some other places, but either way I’ll take the Lions. Now, I don’t have a ton of confidence in the Lions overall this year, because if there’s any franchise that can screw up the momentum of last year and a good young quarterback with a can’t-miss wide receiver, its the Detroit Lions. But for this week, I like them at home against the Rams for one main reason; Brian Schottenheimer. Yes, our great old buddy from the Jets’ sidelines is running the Rams’ offense this season. And he actually has less offensive talent on this squad than he ever had with the Jets, and we saw how dynamic Gang Green’s offense was under his guidance this past half decade. Add in the fact that this offense employs the likes of Wayne Hunter and Matthew Mulligan, I mean, how in the hell are the Rams going to stay within 10 points of a team that threw for 5,000 yards last year in their building? Not happening.

Patriots -5 at Tennessee

Five points? That’s it? You’re telling me the  Patriots won’t beat the Titans by a touchdown? Believe me, just like every other writer on this site I’m rooting for Tennessee, but I’m not holding my breath. Too much Tom Brady, who will have a killer day throwing to his new toy Brandon Lloyd on the outside and to Vinny and Ronnie Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski down the seams. The Patriots D isn’t great but I think they’ll be ahead enough early to render Chris Johnson useless.

Chiefs +3 vs. Falcons

The Falcons are one of those teams I talked about above, one that has big expectations coming into the season and could fall flat on its face in Week 1. I don’t like the Falcons outdoors, on the road in a hostile situation against a solid defense. Here are Matt Ryan’s QB ratings the past four season while playing outdoors: 94.2 (the outlier), 76.2, 80.3, and 79.1. His numbers are even worse on grass. I like the Chiefs in an upset outright, so I’ll gladly take the three points.

Bonus Non-Football Bets of The Weekend: Did you know two of the top pound-for-pound boxers in the world, in their primes, are fighting each other on Saturday for free on HBO? No! No you didn’t know, because you have no idea who Andre Ward or Chad Dawson are, even though you’re clearly a sports fan if you’re on this site. That’s how horridly boring these two are outside of the ring (and sometimes inside the ring too). Ward is the world’s best Super Middleweight (168 pounds) while Dawson is the best at 175, and the fight will be for Ward’s WBC and ring belts. Dawson isn’t a huge puncher, so going down in weight shouldn’t hinder him too much. With a six and half inch reach advantage and a two inch height advantage, I like Dawson  in a pretty big upset at +265.

Turn On The Jets Week 1 Fantasy Football Preview

Mike Donnelly previews week 1 from a fantasy football perpsective

Week One of the NFL is here and with that comes Fantasy Football (YESSS!!!). I’m sure most –if not all– of you are in at least one fantasy league and are starting to get excited about your week 1 matchup, praying for a win so you get to talk an endless amount of trash for a whole week about your glorious victory. There’s also a good chance you’ve spent a few hours this week staring at your computer screen and agonizing over which player you want to start at your flex spot, or which of your two QB’s is a better start. Well for those people, I’m here to help. I’m not going to waste our time by telling you to start Aaron Rodgers or Calvin Johnson, because if you need that, you should go find the nearest toilet and flush your league entrance fee straight down it.

Oh, and if you’re in a league playing against me and looking for some advice, I suggest you all go read Evan Silva’s rankings. I could use a few easy wins. Thanks! Alright, let’s get on with the show.

Things are Looking Up For You If You’ve Got…

QB: Matt Ryan @ KC – I’ve seen Ryan consistently ranked in the top 7 or 8 for week 1, so you should be starting him no matter what. But I think there’s a good chance he finishes this week in the top 4 or 5 as Atlanta unveils their new pass-happy, up-tempo offense against a KC defense that is pretty stout against the run.

QB: Robert Griffin III @ NO – I’d rather start RG3 over guys like Matt Schaub, Big Ben, or Jay Cutler this week. It’s not because I fawn over him as a player like everyone else or think he’ll beat the Saints, though. It’s strictly because the Saints are going to score a ton and there’s a great chance RG3 will rack up some late meaningless stats, which are the best kind!

QB: Jake Locker vs. NE – Locker is one of my sleepers for this season and I expect big things from him as a #2 fantasy QB and bye week fill-in. I’m not placing him here to toot my own horn or anything like that, but strictly because of the Patriots high school calibre defense. If you’re in a deep league, you can do much worse than Jake.

RB: Shonn Greene vs. Buff – I love Shonn Greene this year, as you’ve seen me state numerous times now, and he’s gonna kick off a solid season by shredding Buffalo’s still bad defense.

RB: Doug Martin vs. Car – Martin is the clear centerpiece of new coach Greg Schiano’s offense. Look for him to get the ball early and often against a pretty awful Panthers run D.

RB: Stevan Ridley @ Tenn – Another one of my favorites heading into this season is Stevan Ridley. To me, he’s just a far more talented version of Green-Ellis and I think 1,000 yards and 10 TD’s is a good possibility. This week, Shane Vereen is out and if the Pats get ahead, look for Belichick to test out his new bellcow.

WR: Brandon Marshall vs Ind – To be clear, you should never bench Brandon Marshall. But look for him to perform as a top 5 WR this week against an Indy defense that is still a work in progress.

WR: Percy Harvin vs. Jax – Am I listing Marshall and Harvin because I have them both in my main money league? Yes. But Harvin was a monster the last 8 weeks of last season and with Adrian Peterson still hurt, Harvin is the main man for Minnesota.

WR: Antonio Brown @ Denv – I love Antonio Brown this year. Mike Wallace is very boom or bust and likely to be squaring off with Champ Bailey, while Brown is going to be the one consistently racking up catches.

WR: Justin Blackmon @ Minn – I think Justin Blackmon is going to be really great. Look for him to announce his arrival against a porous Vikings secondary, even though Blaine Gabbert will be throwing to him.

TE: Aaron Hernandez @ Tenn – I think there’s a good chance Hernandez will lead the Pats in receiving yards this season. Look for him to routinely make big plays down the middle of the field this week as the Titans key on Welker, Gronk, and Lloyd.

TE: Dustin Keller vs. Buff – Dustin Keller kills the Bills. Plain and simple. I refuse to believe the Bills D is all of a sudden this great unit. It’s not.

DEF: NY Jets vs. Buff – Rex Ryan vs. Chan Gailey. Yep.

DEF: Houston Texans vs. Miami – Anybody against the Dolphins is a solid start this year.

Be Prepared For Trash Talk If You’re Starting…

QB: Joe Flacco vs. Cin – I just don’t buy all the new “high-powered Ravens offense” talk, and I don’t believe in Joe Flacco. And I certainly don’t this week against a very solid Bengals defense.

QB: Matt Schaub vs. Miami – Miami has an awful team from top to bottom, and the Texans will smack them around, but look for Houston to keep it close to the vest, run the ball a ton, and not rack up a lot of passing numbers.

RB: Marshawn Lynch @ Arz – I’m down on Lynch overall this year, but especially this week. He’s already got minor injuries nagging him and the Cards surprisingly have a pretty solid defense. Don’t be surprised if Robert Turbin ends up with more carries this week.

RB: Michael Turner @ KC – Oh yeah, that whole pass-happy Atlanta offense thing? Michael Turner doesn’t fit in so well. And KC has a pretty tough defense.

RB: Maurice Jones Drew @ Minn & RB: Adrian Peterson vs. Jax – I’m lumping these two together since they’re playing on the same field and are pretty much in the same situation. MJD can’t be trusted because he held out of camp for 6 weeks to… well, he really didn’t get anything out of it, actually. And Peterson still hasn’t been allowed to take hits below the waist in Vikings practices. I’m no expert like Evan Silva or anything, but that doesn’t seem to me like he’s ready to really contribute in a meaningful way this weekend. I’d bench both of these guys.

WR: Stevie Johnson @ NYJ – Two words: Darrelle. Revis. Make that a very pissed off Darrelle Revis, actually, after he’s had to hear all offseason how Johnson owns him.

WR: Roddy White @ KC – Yes, you should absolutely start Roddy White if you have him on your team. But no, you should not expect top 5 or even top 10 level production from him this week. Julio Jones is now “the man” in Atlanta.

WR: Mike Wallace @ Den – I touched on this before, but he’s likely to get a whole lot of Champ Bailey this week, and after this prolonged holdout, I don’t think it’s going to be a very good night for Wallace.

TE: Jermaine Gresham @ Balt – Gresham has a really good chance to have a nice season for Cincinnati, but that’s much more likely to begin in week 2 after he heals up and doesn’t have to face the Ravens defense.

TE: Vernon Davis @ GB – All of the 49ers are going to have a rough go of it this week in Green Bay. The Packers and Dom Capers are smart enough to know that even with all the WR additions in San Fran, Davis is still the man to key on.

DEF: SF 49ers @ GB – The 49ers will still have an excellent defense this year and will rack up a ton of fantasy points. It just won’t be this week.

New York Jets: Separating The Reality From The Hype

Separating the reality from the hype when it comes to the New York Jets

The general view of the 2012 New York Jets is the following – an overhyped team who went down in flames last year and is about to completely fall off the tracks, leaving both Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez unemployed. The circus characterization has been beaten to death by an unoriginal New York media who has spent the last 6 months making a mountain out of every mole hill possible. NFL “media experts” have piled on, pegging the Jets as a 5-7 win team that is more headlines than substance, even when they are the ones giving them the headlines they complain about.

Seriously, is there any thing more tone deaf that ESPN running a segment about how the Giants have flown under the radar because of excessive Jets coverage when ESPN ran the idiot brigade out there all August?

The public fellatio handed to coaches like the Harbaugh brothers isn’t extended to Rex Ryan because he isn’t an information hoarding Bill Belichick clone. He is loud, obnoxious and not afraid to open up in press conferences. His public personality has prevented him receiving the respect he deserves. The hot seat? Because of a 8 win season after back to back AFC Championship Games in his first two years? Give me a break.

Jim Harbaugh lost in a Conference Championship in his first year, exactly what Rex Ryan did, only Rex had to break in a rookie quarterback. Rex then followed up by beating Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Belichick in his own building in the playoffs in his second season. Let’s see how Harbaugh follows up in year two, when he has already been crowed as Lombardi 2.0. John Harbaugh has the same thing to show as Rex Ryan so far in his coaching career, two Conference Championship losses. They get the benefit of the doubt and lofty places in polls like this where Rex isn’t even mentioned. Comically, somebody would rather start their team with Greg Schiano than Rex Ryan, only problem is the biggest game Schiano ever won is the Insight.com Bowl.

Perception is the Jets went 3-13 last year. Reality is they went 8-8, one game worse than the eventual Super Bowl champions and 2 games better than the “upstart” Buffalo Bills who have been unanimously picked to finish ahead of them in the standings this year.

Perception is Mark Sanchez is the 32nd best quarterback in the NFL. Reality is the racked up 32 total touchdowns last year and has won 4 playoff games in his first 3 years. Could you imagine the fawning over Josh Freeman for those type of accomplishments? Yet, Freeman remains the “experts” choice for the big year in 2012. Other young quarterbacks require time to develop and every success is praised endlessly, the same benefit doesn’t fall to Sanchez who only receives armchair psychoanalysis.

The decision to bring in Tim Tebow reeked of headline grabbing. However, would a similar move by Baltimore, Houston or Buffalo inspire such criticism? The move isn’t an abject failure until Tebow is throwing more than 5 passes in a single game. If he comes out and runs 8 times for 45 yards week 1 as the Jets win, is it a stupid decision then?

Clown car? Here are the teams who have won less total games than the 32 the Jets have won the past three seasons (including regular season and playoffs) – Buffalo, Miami, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Houston, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Oakland, Kansas City, Denver, San Diego, Philadelphia, Dallas, Washington, New York Giants (yes they have a Super Bowl though), Minnesota, Detroit, Chicago, Carolina, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Seattle, St. Louis, and Arizona. Atlanta has won 32 as well but with zero playoff wins.

So that leaves New England, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Green Bay as the only teams who have been more successful than the Jets the past three years and we will throw in the Giants for their Super Bowl victory. Are the Jets ever mentioned in the same breath as these franchises for their success the past few years? Of course not. Save the clown cars for Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Minnesota and the other awful organizations, not the team who goes 8-8 and has it considered a colossal failure.

Turn On The Jets Week 1 Roundtable: Jets/Bills Match-Up

The Turn On The Jets staff discusses what match-up they are most looking forward to in the upcoming Jets/Bills match-up

The TOJ staff discusses what match-up they are most looking forward to this Sunday when the New York Jets take on the Buffalo Bills. We also give our picks for the tonight’s NFL kickoff, as we will be tracking our record against the spread all season –

Joe Caporoso – Darrelle Revis vs. Stevie Johnson – There is nothing more overhyped than Johnson’s “success” against Revis and I’m thrilled it has been dragged through the headlines the past few days. Revis is lining up for a Defensive Player of the Year Award considering he is in a contract year and about to be the best player on one of the league’s top defenses. When the Jets are 7-5 heading into December and all the genius pundits who picked them to go 4-12 are bumbling for excuses, it will start with how dominant their defense turned out to be and that discussion will center around Revis, who will kick off a career year this week by blanketing Johnson. With Johnson out of the equation, who exactly will Ryan Fitzpatrick be throwing the football to?

Yes of course Austin Howard vs. Mario Williams will merit watching. Hopefully, Tony Sparano is smart enough to do everything in his power to limit the 1 on 1 match-ups between the two and to consistently roll Sanchez away from Williams. There is no way Howard could do worse than Wayne Hunter did against DeMarcus Ware last year and the Jets managed to win that game.

Chris Celletti – When your offensive line is bad, your offense has no chance of being consistently good. In today’s pass-heavy league, there’s nothing more important than keeping your quarterback upright. And if you’re the Jets who are stuck in 1954 and want to run the ball 50 times a game, you also need great play up front. There’s no question that the Jets’ offensive live is a big question mark as we begin 2012, and they have a tough task off the bat with the newly Mario Williams-led BIlls’ defensive front. All eyes will be on right tackle Austin Howard, and I’m sure the Bills will line Williams up over him often. Of course the way to neutralize a good pass rush is to run the ball well, but the combination of the Jets’ offensive line and Shonn Greene hasn’t lit the world up this preseason and didn’t during last regular season. How will the Jets’ o-line look in the Wildcat? We’ll finally get to see the super-secret offense on Sunday.

Mike Donnelly – The obvious matchups to watch in this game are Revis vs. Stevie Johnson (no contest), and of course Austin Howard against Mario Williams (sadly, also a big mismatch), and of course I’m interested in seeing how those play out. However, the matchup in this game I’m really looking forward to seeing are the Jets linebackers and new safeties against the Bills spread attack that features two solid pass-catching running backs in CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson. Can Bart Scott prove he deserves to play all three downs? Can Demario Davis make an impact for this defense? Can LaRon Landry lay some big-time hits and stay healthy? These are the slightly under the radar things I’m looking forward to watching this Sunday.

Rob Celletti – There’s been an awful lot of hype about the Buffalo Bills for the last 18 months or so; some of it well-earned, some of it a fabrication of the media.  One element of Chan Gailey’s squad that is often cited as a reason that the Bills are expected to be in the thick of the wild card hunt is their defensive line, bolstered by the off-season additions of Mario Williams and Mark Anderson.  Everyone expects the Bills to be a sack machine, of course, especially against what the media has told us for 7 months is a suspect Jets offensive line. And, well, let’s be honest: the Jets gave up 22 sacks in the preseason. Twenty-two! In four games!  Yikes.

However, let’s not forget that this line boasts three first round draft picks and two Pro Bowlers.  Yes, every Jets fan with half a brain is livid over the fact that last year’s most glaring problem – the right tackle position – was not addressed until the 11th hour.  But it does appear that the Jets have upgraded, albeit marginally, at that position.

Week 1 provides a stern test for the Jets’ offensive line.  Joe has already touched upon this in his early look at this week’s game, but it’s worth reiterating.  The Jets, regardless of the evolution of the NFL into a passing-oriented league, are going to look to make their mark in the trenches, establishing Shonn Greene, and yes, Tim Tebow in the running game.  Their passing attack will come second, though don’t be surprised to see the Jets attempt and complete more passes down the field in the first half of Sunday’s game than they did seemingly all of last season.  But in order to complete the back shoulder throw to Stephen Hill or the seam route to Dustin Keller, Sanchez is going to need time.  If he doesn’t have time, he’ll get sacked frequently.  He may throw quicker than he wants to, into coverage.  And with sacks and incomplete passes and interceptions come the calls for the quarterback’s head… and that’s a discussion the Jets need to avoid at all costs for this season to be successful.

So yeah, let’s hope the Jets’ line can keep #6’s jersey clean.

Chris Gross–  Austin Howard vs. Mario Williams – People can talk about Darrelle Revis and Stevie Johnson all they want. Sure, considering Johnson’s self proclaimed success over Revis in the past, that is a very intriguing story line to follow. However,the match up between the two will not influence the outcome of the game nearly as great as Howard vs. Williams. In last season’s opener, DeMarcus Ware toyed with Wayne Hunter in his first career opening day start. Ware accounted for 2 of Dallas’s 4 total sacks that night, and gave Jets fans an unfortunate preview of what would become habitual throughout the entire season. How Howard and the entire offensive line handle the newly revamped defensive line of Buffalo could be a significant sign of how the offense will fare this season. Expect the Jets to give the new Right Tackle ample help with backs and tight ends to assist in blocking the former first overall selection out of North Carolina State. Although Williams has never beaten the Jets in his entire career,he certainly represents the strong point of a defense that will look to expose the Jets largest weakness at Right Tackle.

Tonight’s Predictions

  • Joe – Giants (-3.5)
  • TJ – Dallas (+3.5)
  • Rob – Dallas (+3.5)
  • Mike – Giants (-3.5)
  • Chris G – Giants (-3.5)
  • Chris C – Giants (-3.5)

Turn On The Jets 2012 NFL Season Staff Predictions

The Turn On The Jets staff submits their predictions for the 2012 NFL Season

The Turn On The Jets Staff has looked into their crystal ball to give you their predictions for the 2012 NFL season. Make sure you are following everybody and check back later today for our roundtable on what match-up we are most looking forward to in the Jets/Bills game this Sunday. 

Throughout the year we will also be submitting our weekly NFL picks on Saturday mornings –

Joe Caporoso

Division Winners

New England, Baltimore, Houston, Oakland, Philadelphia, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Francisco

Wild Card

Jets, Tennessee, Giants, Chicago

Jets Record

9-7

Award Winners

OPOY – Tom Brady

DPOY – Darrelle Revis

OROY – Andrew Luck

DROY – Melvin Ingram

MVP – Drew Brees

Chris Gross

Division Winners

New England, Baltimore, Houston, Denver, Philadelphia, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Francisco

Wild Card

Jets, Kansas City, Chicago, Giants

Jets Record

10-6

Award Winners

OPOY – LeSean McCoy

DPOY – Jason Pierre-Paul

OROY – Andrew Luck

DROY – Dont’a Hightower

MVP – Aaron Rodgers

Mike Donnelly

Division Winners

New England, Baltimore, Tennessee, Denver, Giants, Green Bay, Atlanta, San Francisco

Wild Card

Jets, Houston, Chicago, Philadelphia

Jets Record

11-5

Award Winners

OPOY – Matthew Stafford

DPOY – Darrelle Revis

OROY – Andrew Luck

DROY – Luke Kuechly

MVP – Tom Brady

TJ Rosenthal

Division Winners

New England, Baltimore, Houston, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Atlanta, San Francisco

Wild Card

Jets, Pittsburgh, Giants, Detroit

Jets Record

10-6

Award Winners

OPOY – LeSean McCoy

DPOY – Jason Pierre-Paul

OROY – Andrew Luck/David Wilson

DROY – Melvin Ingram

Chris Celletti

Division Winners

New England, Pittsburgh, Houston, Denver, Giants, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Francisco

Wild Card

Jets, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Chicago

Jets Record

9-7

Award Winners

OPOY – Tom Brady

DPOY – Jason Pierre-Paul

OROY – Trent Richardson

DROY – Courtney Upshaw

MVP – Tom Brady

Rob Celletti

Division Winners

New England, Pittsburgh, Houston, Denver, Philadelphia, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Francisco

Wild Card

Jets, Baltimore, Dallas, Giants

Jets Final Record

10-6

Awards

OPOY – Aaron Rodgers

DPOY – Darrelle Revis

OROY – Andrew Luck

DROY – Melvin Ingram

MVP – Drew Brees

Turn On The Jets Stock Watch – Regular Season Preview Edition

Mike Donnelly’s Stock Watch previews the New York Jets 2012 regular season

After months of back and forth debating that in many cases turned into all-out fighting and arguing about the Jets, the season is finally here. I know if you watch ESPN, NFL Network, or whatever other stations full of “experts” there are out there, you’ll get the impression the Jets have no chance to compete this year, but I’m a much more optimistic lad. Call me crazy, but I’m downright giddy about the Jets chances this year and I think their offensive woes have been blown way out of proportion. To prove that point, I’m going to be dedicating this week’s stock watch to buying and selling made-up statistical props for the Jets players in 2012. Let’s start with the quarterback who will be leading the Jets this year and prove all the doubters wrong..

BUY: TIM TEBOW

Just kidding..

BUY: Mark Sanchez over 60% completions – With Brian Schottenheimer and his baffling offensive system out of town, look for Mark to thrive under Tony Sprarano. He won’t put up eye-popping statistics, but you can bet his completion percentage will improve a great deal as the team runs the ball with more consistency and actually works off that with some play-actions which were mysteriously absent from Schotty’s playbook.

BUY: Mark Sanchez under 15 interceptions – With a less-confusing offense that better suits his skills, Mark’s interception total is going to go down to around the 12-13 area instead of the 18 he threw last year. Unfortunately, I don’t see him approaching the 26 touchdowns through the air from a year ago this season either, though.

BUY: Shonn Greene over 1500 yards from scrimmage – Yes, Shonn Greene is going to eclipse 1,500 yards from scrimmage this year. Many Jets fans, including some on this very site, are extremely down on the former third round pick, but I am not one of them. I expect the offensive line to get their crap together and for Greene to really hit his stride on the ground this season as he’s fed the ball repeatedly. And I can’t stress this enough: Shonn Greene is entering his contract year. He’s going to bust his ass to put up numbers and get paid. This is a lock.

BUY: Santonio Holmes over 70 Catches and 10 TD’s – Well he had 8 TD’s and 51 catches last year and it can’t get much worse than the year he had, right? Look for the Jets to force the ball to Holmes early in the season to get him involved and keep him happy. Plus, he’s the only reliable receiver on the team, so throwing to him early and often makes a ton of sense.

SELL: Chaz Schilens over 10 catches – The way it’s looking now, I’d probably sell if the over was 0.5 catches. Ugh. Hope I’m wrong about this one.

SELL: Austin Howard over 4.5 starts at RT – Another one I hope I’m wrong about, because having Howard become a legit starting RT would be a major boon for the offense. Plus, it would cause Mike Tannenbaum to nearly collapse in joy at the thought of finding his own diamond in the rough to appease his “Next Victor Cruz” obsession. And that’s not to mention some Jets bloggers who shall remain nameless that have already made plans to attend Austin Howard’s Hall of Fame induction in the year 2034. That being said, I just don’t think Howard is going to last, and Jason Smith will be the man on the right side before long.

BUY: Coples and Wilkerson combined over 10.5 sacks – Considering these are both interior pass rushers, over 10 sacks combined might be a little bit of a lofty goal. BUT,these two guys are incredibly talented and athletic and are going to cause major havoc in opposing backfields. Even if they fall a little short of this number combined, they’ll be directly responsible for about a dozen other sacks that will fall into the laps of Calvin Pace and Aaron Maybin on the outside. Unfortunately this won’t stop plenty of yahoo Jets fans who will look at the sack numbers, not see double digits each and call both of them busts. Sigh.

SELL: Aaron Maybin over 10 sacks – I think Maybin will lead the team in sacks this year, but I don’t think he will crack double digits. Think 7-9 for him and that will be just fine when combined with our young studs on the line. Defenses are going to pay more attention to him this yearf, so cracking 10 could be tough.

SELL: Darrelle Revis over 0.5 TD’s allowed – Ok let’s see here. We’re witnessing perhaps the greatest defensive back of all time at the age of 27. He’s in his absolute athletic peak. He gave up one touchdown last year and people have dogged him about it since, saying Stevie Johnson now owns him. He’s playing for a new contract that will likely make him the highest paid non-quarterback in the history of the NFL. Umm, yeah I’m gonna go ahead and say we’re about to see some kind of historic season from Number 24. Oh, and Stevie Johnson, if you’re reading this (and why wouldn’t you be?) you’re screwed this week. SCREWED.

BUY: Nick Folk over 30 FG’s made this year – Folk has had an excellent off-season, beating out Josh Brown, and we all know how much Tony Sparano loves his field goals.

BUY: Jets over 8.5 wins this year – I’ve been over this time and time again (like in my AFC East Preview), but this is a lock. With that schedule and that defense, 9 wins should be an afterthought. I’m thinking 10 or 11 and a deep playoff run. I’m getting excited just thinking about this team’s potential.

So forget the haters. Forget Evan Silva and Mike Florio. The hell with Merrill Hoge and Gary Myers and Mike Francesa. Ignore the Tim Tebow disciples like Skip Bayless. This team has a real chance to give us a special season that we’ll remember for a long time. Let’s sit back and enjoy the ride.

Early Thoughts On Jets/Bills Week 1 Match-Up

Early thoughts on the New York Jets week 1 match-up against the Buffalo Bills

A collection of early thoughts on the New York Jets week 1 match-up against the Buffalo Bills, make sure you check back later in the day for Mike Donnelly’s Stock Watch. Also if you are planning to head out in NYC tomorrow for the NFL opener or Sunday for Jets/Bills, we have partnered with Night Out to hook you up with a discount at Traffic East in Midtown. 

1. It sounds like Sione Pouha is 50/50 to play this Sunday. Pouha is obviously one of the Jets top defenders and his presence would be missed. However, the team is well equipped to handle his absence this week for two main reasons. First off, because of Buffalo’s spread attack, the Jets will spend more time in their nickel and sub packages, which would equal less playing time for him anyway. Second, Kenrick Ellis has been terrific this pre-season and is a capable stop-gap for a week or two. It might be better to exercise caution with Pouha and make sure he is 100 percent for week 2 in Pittsburgh.

2. The Jets haven’t had this low of expectations since prior to the 2006 season, which is a good thing. In the past decade, they have performed better in seasons where the expectations weren’t high. Most “experts” are ignoring the reality of how strong the Jets defense will be and how soft their schedule is, particularly when it comes to playing inexperienced quarterbacks and quarterbacks Rex Ryan has had success against.

3. Speaking of quarterbacks Ryan has had success against, Ryan Fitzpatrick is 0-4 in his last 4 starts against Rex Ryan’s Jets with an average QB rating of 70.3.

4. A few more fun Buffalo stats against the Jets since Chan Gailey took over

  • 0-4 record
  • Average margin of defeat – 18.75 points
  • Average points per game – 14 points
5. An overhyped storyline coming into this week will be Stevie Johnson’s “success” against Darrelle Revis, stemming from the “monster” 8 catch, 75 yard, 1 touchdown game he had against him last year. Of course most people neglect Revis was supposed to have underneath help on Johnson’s touchdown and that 8 catches for 75 yards wasn’t enough for a win that day. I am sure everybody in the Jets building is hoping Buffalo comes after Revis early and often with Johnson.
6. If Buffalo was smart, they’d make CJ Spiller a large part of their game plan on Sunday, particularly in the passing game. The more you can force the Jets linebackers into coverage, the better chance you have to move the football on their defense. Buffalo lacks a tight end who can exploit the middle of the field so Spiller is their best bet to take advantage of the softest spot of the Jets defense.

7. The best way to neutralize Mario Williams and Mark Anderson is for the Jets to establish Shonn Greene early and often, and then work the play action passing game off him. It doesn’t matter how highly touted rookie Stephon Gilmore is, he is still a rookie. If the Jets can get Santonio Holmes on him 1 on 1, they have to go after him.

8. You hate to say week 1 games are must wins but look at the Jets schedule, look at what everybody has been saying about Buffalo this off-season…this is a must win. The Jets can burst the early bubble on the Buffalo hype train, build momentum heading into a tough week two game on the road, get a crucial division win and avoid the embarrassment of feeding into pundits by losing in their own building to the supposed “up and coming” AFC East team.

NFL 2012 Gambling Preview: Over/Unders, MVP, Super Bowl Bets

Chris Celletti kicks off his weekly NFL gambling column with a look at over/unders, MVP and Super Bowl bets

We are happy to welcome Chris Celletti to the TOJ writing staff for the 2012 NFL season. He will be contributing a weekly NFL gambling column every Friday. Make sure to give Chris a follow on Twitter and all the credit if you hit on any of these bets – 

So preseason is finally, finally over, which means the beginning of the NFL gambling season (unless you have a serious problem and have been betting on preseason games, which I’m sure about 85% of the NFL gambling population does, no questions asked). Each week during the regular season, I’ll give you three picks against the spread.

And let’s get this out of the way, here’s my disclaimer: I am in no way trying to pass myself off as any sort of gambling expert. I don’t study how lines move during the week because I have a job, a life and friends. I’m simply going to waddle up to my computer every Friday or so and look at that week’s schedule, pick three games, and give football reasons as to why. From time-to-time I’ll also throw in a non-football bet and other random thoughts that pop into my head. We’ll tally my record and keep a running total each week and see how horrifically I did at the end of the year, because we all know betting on football has zilch to do with anything football related. This is gonna be a fun exercise.

So since we’re still a wee bit off until the actual games kickoff, I thought I’d debut with some futures bets; a few team over/unders and MVP and  Super Bowl Champs bets.  As with my weekly picks to come, I plan on having a big old laugh when looking back on these in February when the season is over and Mike Tannenbaum takes over for Bill Polian as ESPN’s “Expert NFL GM”.

FYI: I get lines from Bovada.

Team Over/Unders:

Baltimore Ravens (10) – UNDER

My dad is a huge believer of “being due” in sports, and he’s passed that on to me. This ranges from everything like “Good god is Swisher OVERDUE for a homer” to “All the home teams have won on Wild Card Weekend so far, one of the road teams has to win”. It’s completely illogical and totally irrational, and yet I still believe in it. And to me, the Baltimore Ravens are due for a crap year. They’ve made the playoffs in all of John Harbaugh’s four seasons, which is a miraculous accomplishment given that Joe Flacco has been the starting quarterback for all of them. And of course it’s because of the Ravens’ defense, which to me is on its last legs. Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are on the way out, and Terrell Suggs is hurt. Their schedule isn’t a murderer’s row but does include games with the Giants, Cowboys, Eagles and of course two with the rival Steelers. It’s just pretty hard in the NFL to have five straight winning/playoff seasons, especially with a quarterback like Flacco. I don’t expect the Ravens to be bad, but I can see 8-8.

Jacksonville Jaguars (5.5) – UNDER

This is the biggest dumpster of a franchise in the NFL and it’s not even close. Can you blame Maurice Jones-Drew for wanting out? The Jags and Jets should have pulled a Tebow-MJD trade, but the Jags would rather start Blaine Gabbert at quarterback than someone who, at the very least, would fill their stadium. Oh, wait, this is easy to figure out…their owner wants absolutely nothing to do with the city of Jacksonville. Additionally, the Jags have the NFC North and the AFC East on their schedule this year. It will take them until they’re the London Jaguars before they win six games in a season.

Denver Broncos (9) – OVER

It’s going to be close but I have the Broncos slightly over, probably by about a game or so. The competition in the AFC West will remain mediocre and Denver’s schedule isn’t too bad. And then there’s this: last year, this team won eight games and one in the playoffs with Tim Tebow at quarterback. This season, they made an itty-bitty upgrade at the position with Peyton Manning. Peyton Manning throwing with his left hand could win 10 games if he gets half the support Lefty Jesus got last year from this defense, special teams and running game.

NFL MVP

Eli Manning (18/1)

The Giants’ offense has a chance to be insanely good. If David Wilson is even a fraction as good as every Giants blogger has blabbered on about since April, and Ahmad Bradshaw stays healthy, can’t Elisha have a truly MVP-caliber season? With any semblance of a running game Eli should put up monster numbers throwing to Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Co. Of course for Eli to win the MVP, the Giants will need to have a big regular season, something many seem to think isn’t going to happen, but I do (and then they’ll promptly lose in the first round of the playoffs because that’s how the Giants do things). To me, there’s no reason at all why guys like Michael Vick, Arian Foster and Matt Stafford should have better odds to win the MVP than Eli.

Super Bowl Champs

New Orleans (18/1)

What the Saints will prove this year is that in the NFL, coaching doesn’t mean a whole lot when you have a great quarterback who runs your offense from the huddle/line of scrimmage. In 2009, The Colts went 14-2 (should have went 16-0) with Jim Caldwell as their head coach, and Jim Caldwell is about as aware of his surroundings as a deer that sprints across the Garden State Parkway . The only reason that Colts team was worth anything was because of Peyton Manning. The Saints still have that whether Sean Payton is on the sidelines or not because of Drew Brees, and Brees also still has plenty of explosive weapons to use. The whole bounty scandal will end up being good for them because it forced ax-murderer wannabe Greg Williams and his Transitions lenses out of town, and Nola replaced him with Steve Spagnuolo, a totally competent and Super Bowl winning defensive coordinator. Besides, defense means jack in the NFL these days, just ask last year’s Patriots. And then there’s the dome. The Saints are impossible to beat in that dome. If they can get to the Super Bowl, well, do you know where the Super Bowl is this year? Why take the Eagles at 11/1 (this is a joke, right?) or the Bears at 15/1 if the Saints are sitting there below them?

New York Jets (40/1)

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