Jets vs. Texans: 12 Pack Of Predictions

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It’s about that time…

1. Mark Sanchez is going to throw for 300 yards for the second time in three weeks as he continues to flourish in the Jets offense during his second year. The Texans have a brutal secondary and unlike last year, the Jets are now equipped to advantage of it.

2. Shonn Greene will get more carries than LaDainian Tomlinson for the second week in a row and start building momentum for a big time December. Don’t worry about LT though, he will still get 13-15 carries along with 3-5 receptions.

3. The inactive list – Jerricho Cotchery, Marquice Cole, Dwight Lowery, Kellen Clemens, Marcus Dixon, Vladimir Ducasse, Josh Mauga, Matt Kroul

4. Andre Johnson will have less than 50 yards receiving, as Darrelle Revis does what he did to him last year and what he did to Calvin Johnson a few weeks back.

5. Arian Foster isn’t going to be the first running back to get 100 yards on the Jets this season.

6. Braylon Edwards is going to have his first 100 yard game of the season, as Houston keys on Santonio Holmes who is coming off back to back big games.

7. The Texans two leading receivers are going to be Jacoby Jones and Joel Dressen as they attack the Jets safeties and #3 and #4 corners.

8. Kyle Wilson is going to break big punt return this week for 30 yards or more.

9. The Jets are going to finally get an interception this week. I am guessing it will be Antonio Cromartie who pulls in his third of the season.

10. Nick Folk is going to miss another field goal, giving us all indigestion heading into December.

11. Patrick Turner will take the bulk of the reps for Jerricho Cotchery and record his first reception of the season.

12. If you haven’t been able to tell already I am supremely confident in the Jets this week. Houston does not match-up well with them and is in the midst of a 3 game losing streak. The Jets have the ability to take away the two best things Houston does on offense: throw to Andre Johnson and handoff to Arian Foster, and the Texans defense is brutal. There is no way they are coming into the New Meadowlands in late November and winning this game. I am picking the Jets 27-10.

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Week 11 Picks (Lines Courtesy of BetUs)

  • Raiders (+7) vs. Pittsburgh
  • Ravens (-11.5) vs. Panthers
  • Redskins (+7) vs. Titans
  • Cowboys (-7) vs. Lions
  • Packers (-3.5) vs. Vikings
  • Bills (+5.5) vs. Bengals
  • Browns (-1.5) vs. Jaguars
  • Cardinals (+8) vs. Chiefs
  • Saints (-11) vs. Seahawks
  • Falcons (-3.5) vs. Rams
  • Bucs (+3.5) vs. 49ers
  • Peyton Manning (+4) vs. Patriots
  • Mike Vick Show (-3.5) vs. Giants
  • Chargers (-9) vs. Broncos

Grading Out the Jets/Texans Game

First a few updates:

1. A bunch of the Jets talked about Rex Ryan’s pre-game speech before their beatdown of the Texans. According to Jay Feely, Ryan used the f-word about 52 times. The general gist of the speech was that the Texans were a soft, finesse team and the Jets were going to kick the crap out of them, and sure enough they did. Ryan sent a message to Houston right away by deferring after winning the coin toss, showing he wasn’t scared of their hyped up offense. Kris Jenkins joked that Ryan should be banned by the NFL as performance enhancing drug because of how motivated he had the team…I hope he has a strong encore performance for this week’s game.

2. The Jets don’t have permanent captains but their game captains for Houston were Kris Jenkins, Alan Faneca, Howard Green, and James Dearth.

3. After being presented with the game ball by Kerry Rhodes, Rex Ryan turned and flipped it over to Woody Johnson for giving him the chance to be a head coach in the NFL, before getting a little emotional in the locker room. I wonder if Eric Manginishowed any emotion in his opening game with the Browns?

4. Shonn Greene was inactive because the Jets wanted to carry an extra linebacker because they were concerned about Bryan Thomas having a sore leg, so Jason Trunsik was active over Greene who is now 100 percent healthy.

5. Across the top of the page, you can now find “Jets Stats” which has their updated leaders in all major statistical categories. I also added the Jets/Texans highlights to the “Game Highlights” section, don’t be confused by the lettering on the video that says “Colts vs Jaguars,” it is the Jets/Texans highlights. Also the first episode of TOJ TV is archived under the “TOJ TV” page.

Grading Out the Jets/Texans Game

Quarterbacks: (A-) I’m not sure you could have asked for a better performance by Mark Sanchez in his first career start. Yes, he threw a costly interception and nearly had two others picked off but he dominated third down going 12/15 for 191 yards and a touchdown, showing his clutch ability. He also moved tremendously well in the pocket, avoiding sacks and keeping multiple plays alive. People love to talk about the “it” factor at quarterback, I’m not sure it is reasonable to assess a trait that can’t clearly be defined to somebody but it sure as hell looks like Sanchez has “it.” He plays with a ton of energy and acts like a leader on the field, sprinting out to break up a fight after Jay Feely knocked through a field goal. Would Brett Favre have been out there last year, trying to prevent a penalty?

Running Backs: (A-) 19 touches for Leon Washington? It is about damn time. Washington averaged 4 yards per carry and provided a consistent performance. He also chipped in 4 catches and a key pass breakup on a near interception. Thomas Jones started with 14 carries for 16 yards and finished with 20 carries for 107 yards, which is why you stick with the running game. Tony Richardson was excellent, providing a crushing block on safety Nick Ferguson that sprung Jones 38 yard touchdown run. I am going to keep harping on this…the closer Jones/Washington get to 40 touches a game, the more likely the Jets are to win. They combined for 39 against Houston, with a near perfect split of Jones having 20 and Washington having 19.

Wide Receivers: (B+) Jerricho Cotchery and Chansi Stuckey’s ability to run after the catch converted a handful of key third downs for the Jets. After dropping his first pass, Cotchery caught the next 6 thrown to him. If they can play like this on a weekly basis, people won’t think twice about Laveranues Coles or any other veteran receiver for a long time. Brad Smith had a nice run on a reverse but also had a drop and a holding penalty. David Clowney wasn’t targeted at all.

Tight Ends: (A) Dustin Keller led the Jets in receiving yards with 94 and had two key third down conversions, including the biggest catch of the game, a 40 yard catch and run when the Jets faced a crucial 3rd and 3 with a 17-7 lead. He is going to be a nightmare match-up for defenses all season. Ben Hartsock played very well for somebody who just joined the team a week ago, providing steady blocking and playing a bunch of reps.

Offensive Line: (A) Whenever you allow zero sacks and have 190+ yards of rushing, you get an A. The only negative was three false start penalties. D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Damien Woody more than held their own against Mario Williams.

Defensive Line: (A) It was comical watching Kris Jenkins throw Texans center Chris Myers around like a rag doll all day. Jenkins didn’t have a big day statistically but anybody who watched the game knows how well he played. Mike DeVito had a big fumble recovery, thanks to his hustle down the field. Marques Douglas had a TFL…oh yea, Steve Slaton only ran for 17 yards.

Linebackers: (A) The A’s are getting redundant, but trust me I’m not getting tired typing them. David Harris was a beast with 11 tackles, a sack, and a pass defensed. He also knocked Andre Davis into another planet when he tried to come over the middle. Bart Scott set the tone early with a crushing blow on Matt Schaub, who played scared the rest of the game. Vernon Gholston had 3 tackles, a TFL and held his own for the entire day which is a step in the right direction for him. Jamaal Westerman continues to look like a UDFA steal, as he recorded his first NFL sack.

Secondary (A) Outside of Nnamdi Asomugha, who is a better corner than Darrelle Revis in the NFL? He is straight lockdown, period. Andre Johnson might as well stayed in the locker room because it was hard to notice he was even out there. Kerry Rhodes and Jim Leonhard were both active around the line of scrimmage. Donald Strickland had a great game with 3 tackles, a key forced fumble, and a QB pressure that led to an INT. Lito Sheppard was strong in run support and also had an interception. Eric Smith had a big 4th down pass break up and had a surprisingly active day.

Special Teams (A) Jay Feely made all his kicks. Steve Weatherford punted well and the Jets allowed zero return yards on punts. Leon Washington and Jim Leonhard were solid on returns.

Coaching (A) Rex Ryan had the Jets motivated and came up with a game plan that had Matt Schaub and Gary Kubiak’s head spinning. Brian Schottenheimer did a great job using Leon Washington and throwing some well timed screens to keep Houston off balance.

Highlights of the Jets Week One Win Over Houston

Jets vs. Texans: Talking to the Opponent

First a few updates: 

1. A big congratulations to Derek Jeter for breaking the all-time Yankees hit record.

Jets vs. Texans: Talking to the Opponent

I exchanged questions with Texans writer Mike Kerns from (http://dontmesswithtexans.com/) here is our conversation about the Jets/Texans match-up:

MK: With the apparent “QB battle” over and Mark Sanchez winning the starting job (was there really any doubt?), what does the team plan to do with Kellen Clemens. Does he become the primary backup? Or does Rex Ryan plan to see if Clemons can garner any interest on the trade market? Also, is he okay with just being a backup?

JC: Clemens will be the Jets backup this season because none of the quarterbacks on the roster have any experience but this will be his last season in green and white since his contract expires and the Jets like the long term potential of Erik Ainge and Kevin O’Connell. I’m sure Clemens isn’t okay with being a backup, but he had enough chances to be a starter and never took advantage.

MK: A lot of Texans fans were all about trading down in the 2006 draft and taking D’brickshaw Ferguson with their first pick. Now that the fallout from the Mario Williams pick has cleared (and most are now declaring him the right pick for #1 overall) you don’t hear much about Brick in Houston anymore. With this being the first match up between the two high draft picks, who do you give the edge to?
JC: I would give the edge to Williams, who has been a pro-bowl caliber player the past couple of seasons. D’Brick has been pretty good but not great since the Jets drafted him, although he is predicting a pro-bowl appearance for himself this season. It will be fun to watch those two battle on Sunday though, since they two of the more athletic people at their positions in the NFL.
MK: Is the new stories about Brett Favre calling out Jets officials about making him play injured last season as big of a story around the team as ESPN is making it out to be?
JC: I think Favre is just making excuses for his poor play down the stretch. Mike Tannenbaum admitted today that he should have listed Favre as probable, but it remains to be seen if the NFL will take any disciplinary action against the Jets
MK: Derrelle Revis and Andre Johnson. All-Pro vs. All-Pro. This is the one that seems to be getting the most attention on Texans fan sites. Last season, only Nnamdi Asomugha of the Raiders was able to keep Andre Johnson in check. Revis isn’t exactly a slouch though. What’s your gut telling you the outcome will be in this match up?
JC: Andre Johnson will get his catches, but I think Revis will be able to prevent him from killing the Jets with the big play. He usually rises up against the elite receivers in the league. I can see Johnson having something like 5 catches for 59 yards, but he won’t go off for one of his 8 catch, 130 yard, 2 TD’s performance.
MK: With the Jets strong running attack being matched up against Houston’s weakness (Run Defense), what kind of day are you expecting from Thomas Jones and Leon Washington?
JC: I am expecting Jones and Washington to combine for 40 touches on Sunday. I think TJ will get 22-25 carries and be right around 100 yards. Washington should be in the 10-12 carry range, along with a few receptions and should be good for a couple of big plays as usual.
 
JC: My prediction for the game:  Jets- 23, Texans – 20
JC: Expectations have never been higher for the Texans, do you think they will finally get over the hump and challenge the Colts for the divisional title or at least a wild card spot?
 
MK: Well, I am kind of on the fence about that one. The Texans were a trendy sleeper pick last year, as well. But I think either way it goes, it wouldn’t surprise me. We have gotten so used to things going wrong here that we have gotten used to it. We expect bad things to happen and expectations to come up short. I don’t necessarily think it is pessimism. Just realism. But to answer your question, it all depends on Matt Schaub. If he can stay on the field for a full season, I think Houston reaches double digits in wins for the first time in franchise history. The defense only needs to be middle of the pack with the high power offense. And it all starts, and ends, with Matt Schaub.
JC: How healthy is Matt Schaub and if he gets knocked out of the game, will Dan Orlovsky or Rex Grossman come into the game?
 
MK: Matt Schaub declared himself ready to go for the game Sunday. When asked if he was 100%, he replied “in this league, you are never 100%.” But I really think the ankle sprain he suffered against Minnesota has really only been made a big issue because of his durability problems in the past. The team is just being overly cautious. As they should be.
 
With his strong showing in the preseason finale, Rex Grossman won the backup job. But I have to believe he will have a very short leash, especially since the Texans gave Dan Orlovsky a 3 year/9 Million dollar contract this offseason.
JC: How concerned are you about the secondary and the Texans defense overall?
 
MK: I thank the lord above that Dunta Robinson ended his holdout. He immediately became the Texans best CB simply by walking back through the door. Jacques Reeves is still out with a broken fibula, so Fred Bennett will start opposite Robinson on Sunday. Aside from Dunta, I am very concerned about the secondary. As I have been for the past few seasons.
 
With a new defensive coordinator, Frank Bush, I expect some big plays to be given up sometimes by the Texans defense (See Adrian Peterson). Amobi Okoye is in his third year and is teetering into the “bust” stereotype. DeMeco Ryans is 100% healthy this year and playing for a new contract, so I expect him to bring the pain even more that usual. Mario is Mario, so I’m not worried about him. But I want to see more than just these two guys making plays. Okoye and free agent acquisition Antonio Smith need to work at slowing down the run. I really do not know what to expect from first round draft choice Brian Cushing. He missed the entire preseason, yet he is starting on Sunday. Should be interesting.
JC: Do you think Houston will target Kevin Walter often, since it will be matched up on Lito Sheppard who has struggled this pre-season, or do you think they won’t shy away from throwing at Darrelle Revis because they have Andre Johnson?
 
MK: I don’t think they will go to Kevin Water that much since he will probably not play. He suffered a hamstring injury in the preseason and he didn’t even practice today. Andre Davis or David Anderson will probably step in. I’d like to see Jacoby Jones get some time simply for his playmaking abilities, but his immaturity keeps him strictly a punt returner and special teamer. But I think you will see TE Owen Daniels with a big game.
 
As much as I admire Darrelle Revis, Andre Johnson has simply looked unstoppable for a couple of years now. So I don’t see offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan letting Revis take away their greatest weapon on offense. And I am sure Andre will be up for the challenge as well. He was only thrown to one time against Nnamdi Asomugha last year and I hope they don’t do the same this year against Revis. 
JC: What is your prediction for the final score?
 
MK: I think either one of two things happen. Either Houston comes out and gets up by a couple of scores in the first quarter and forces the Jets to make Mark Sanchez feel like he has to air it out. This slowing down the powerful Jets running game. Or, what is more likely, Houston’s defense is slow to arrive and relies on the potent Texans offense to play catch up all game. So, I predict a Kris Brown field goal with under a minute left puts Houston up 24-20 with under a minute left and Mark Sanchez is unable to make the game winning drive in his first NFL start. So, Houston wins a tough one 24-20. But only because they’ve become so tough at home.

Jets vs. Texans: Game Breakdown

First a few updates:

1. Just a friendly reminder that I will be making an appearance on The Fantasy Buffet radio show tomorrow at 11:15 AM to preview the Jets/Texans game, check it out http://ownersedge.fanball.com/fantasy_buffet.php 

2. The Jets added fullback Jason Davis to their practice squad today and removed safety Emmanuel Cook from it.

Jets vs. Texans: Game Breakdown

Jets Offensive Game Plan: The Texans are not strong against the run, and were in the bottom third in all rushing defensive categories last season. Brian Schottenheimer and the rest of the Jets offensive coaching staff should be licking their chops thinking about their running game against the Texans front seven. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington should combine for 40 touches this Sunday, the closer they get to that number the more likely the Jets are to win. If the Jets are running the ball effectively and utilizing Jones/Washington in the short passing game, they will be keeping the dangerous Texans offense off the field and protecting their rookie quarterback.

Expect the Jets to come out fairly conservative in the first half, although I wouldn’t be shocked to see them try to catch Houston off guard by taking an early shot with David Clowney or Dustin Keller down the seam. However, for the most part expect alot of runs, screens, and short hitches/slants to Keller and Jerricho Cotchery. The Jets will want to get Sanchez going with easy completions, although I think they may elect to run the ball in some 3rd and long situations early in the game, similar to how they did against Baltimore in the pre-season.

To recap, expect a heavy, heavy dose of Thomas Jones and Leon Washington and a predominantly short, quick release passing attack. Although, don’t be surprised to see the Jets look to go up top at some point in the first quarter when the Texans overload the box. When David Clowney comes in the game, obviously all eyes will be on him going deep so the Jets might have to hit him with a curl or comeback first or look to get Cotchery or Brad Smith on a go route.

Jets Defensive Game Plan: The Texans have a dangerous offense, led by a strong pocket passer in Matt Schaub, a game breaking receiver in Andre Johnson, a Leon Washington clone in Steve Slaton, a pro-bowl tight (Owen Daniels) and a quality possession receiver (Kevin Walter). How do the Jets stop all of that? Well, the Jets aren’t half bad on defense themselves even without Calvin Pace and Shaun Ellis. I expect the Jets to come after Schaub early and often and test his bum ankle. Rex Ryan won’t be scared to leave Darrelle Revis one on one in coverage with Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter one on one with Lito Sheppard. Kerry Rhodes and David Harris both should be alright against Daniels at the tight end spot. In terms of Slaton, the Jets simply have to tackle. They can’t overload the box, miss a tackle and let him get in the open field because he will be gone.

I am concerned because the Texans are a big play offense and the Jets gave up a ton of big plays in the pre-season. I think Revis will hold his own against Johnson. The guy will get his catches but I don’t think he will kill the Jets with a big play or have one of his normal 8 catch, 130 yard, 2 TD performances. Keep an eye on Kevin Walter because honestly Lito Sheppard hasn’t looked good, and I’m sure the Texans will be looking to exploit that match-up.

The key for the Jets will be to prevent the big play. They need to make the Texans put together long drives to score points, and look to eventually create turnovers. Houston will get their yards but if the Jets can grab an interception and force a fumble, and hold the Texans to field goals instead of touchdowns, they have a great chance of coming out on top.

Special Teams Breakdown: Both teams have solid kickers. Obviously, you have to be concerned about the Jets punting situation but hopefully Steve Weatherford can be halfway decent and not kill the Jets with any shanks. Leon Washington and Jacoby Jones are both dangerous kick returners, and don’t forget about Jim Leonhard and Andre Davis as punt returners. Both teams have players who can change the entire dynamic of the game on their special teams units.

The Jets Will Win If…Mark Sanchez plays beyond his years, managing to take a couple of shots down the field to keep the defense honest but avoiding any costly turnovers. Darrelle Revis contains Andre Johnson and the Jets don’t let Steve Slaton get in the open field. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington combine for 40 touches, letting the Jets dominate the time of possession, keeping the dangerous Texans offense on the side-line.

The Jets Will Lose If…The Jets defense allows the big play, letting Steve Slaton or Andre Johnson score a touchdown of 30 yards or more. Johnson beats Revis up and down the field, racking up yet another 100 yard game. Mark Sanchez tries to do too much and throws a costly interception in a big spot. Thomas Jones can’t get going in the running game and Leon Washington has less than 10 touches on offense.

First Time Starters For the Jets:

  • Mark Sanchez, Quarterback – The rookie needs to manage the game but if the Texans load up the box, he has to make them pay over the top.
  • Chansi Stuckey, Receiver – Keep an eye on him on third downs, when he slides into the slot.
  • Mike DeVito/Sione Pouha – Filling in for Shaun Ellis, these guys need to support Kris Jenkins up front and apply pressure on Matt Schaub.
  • Vernon Gholston – Expect the Texans to run at him early and often. Hopefully his bench press can translate to the field.

Tomorrow, check back for the first episode of “Turn on the Jets TV” where I will make by prediction for the Jets game and the rest of the NFL Games this weekend, along with some fantasy observations.

Get Ready to See Some Thomas Jones on Sunday

Jets vs. Texans: First Look

First a few updates:

1. Well you don’t have to worry about the Jets being jinxed by pre-season expectations. They were the consensus pick to finish in last place by all of ESPN’s “experts” and are also currently ranked #23 in their NFL Power Rankings, behind the Seahawks, 49ers, Bills, Redskins, and Texans. But, hey that’s why they play the game right?

2. The Jets added Danny Woodhead to their practice squad today and released Jehuu Caulcrick off it.

3. On the active roster, the Jets signed linebacker Ryan Fowler who played for the Titans the past few seasons, including starting 16 games for them 2 years ago and released fullback Jason Davis.

4. Mike DeVito didn’t practice today but is still expected to go on Sunday, as well is Shonn Greene who is recovering from a variety of injuries. Sione Pouha ran with the first team in practice today, with Kris Jenkins sliding out to defensive end for some looks when paired with Pouha.

Jets vs. Texans: First Look

The Opponent: The Houston Texans have been 8-8 the past two seasons, and are a trendy pick to take the step to the next level in 2009 and become a legitimate playoff contender. Their offense is expected to be one of the NFL’s best but they have a ton of question marks on defense, making them the complete opposite of the Jets who have the reverse problem. Over the past two seasons, the Texans are 12-4 at home and have generally been difficult to beat in their building since coming into the league. The latest lines I saw have them as 4-5 point favorites over the Jets. Regardless, the Jets must get this game. They don’t want to be heading home to play the Pats and Titans, teams with a combined record of 24-6 last year, as a 0-1 team.

Houston Texans Starters/Key Reserves

OFFENSE

  • Quarterback: Matt Schaub – 3,043 passing yards, 15 TD’s, 10 INT’s, 92.7 QB Rating
  • Running Back: Steve Slaton – 1,282 rushing yards, 9 TD’s, 377 receiving yards, 1 TD
  • #2 Running Back – Chris Brown – DNP
  • Fullback: Vonta Leach – 12 receptions, 103 yards
  • Wide Receiver: Andre Johnson – 115 receptions, 1575 yards, 8 TD’s
  • Wide Receiver: Kevin Walter – 60 receptions, 899 yards, 8 TD’s
  • Wide Receiver: David Anderson – 19 receptions, 241 yards, 2 TD’s
  • Wide Receiver: Andre Davis – 13 receptions, 213 yards
  • Tight End: Owen Daniels – 70 receptions, 862 yards, 2 TD’s
  • #2 Tight End: Joel Dressen – 11 receptions, 77 yards, 1 TD
  • Left Tackle: Duane Brown
  • Left Guard: Chester Pitts
  • Center: Chris Meyers
  • Right Guard: Mike Brisel
  • Right Tackle: Eric Winston

DEFENSE

  • Defensive End: Antonio Smith
  • Defensive Tackle: DelJuan Robinson – 28 tackles, 6 TFL’s
  • Defensive Tackle: Amobi Okoye – 24 tackles, 1 sack
  • Defensive End: Mario Williams – 53 tackles, 12 Sacks
  • Middle Linebacker: DeMeco Ryans – 112 tackles, 4 TFL’s, 1 sack
  • Outside Linebacker: Xavier Adibi – 35 tackles
  • Outside Linebacker: Brian Cushing – 1st round draft pick
  • Corner: Jacques Reeves – 52 tackles, 4 INT’s
  • Corner: Fred Bennett – 43 tackles, 2 INT’s
  • Safety: Dominique Barber – 15 tackles
  • Safety: Eugene Wilson – 63 tackles, 2 INT’s

SPECIALS

  • Kicker: Kris Brown
  • Punter: Matt Turk
  • Kick Return: Jacoby Jones
  • Punt Return: Andre Davis

Key Players: Matt Schaub is a dangerous quarterback when he is healthy. He has a strong arm and can get the ball down the field. Andre Johnson is arguably the best receiver in football. Kevin Walter is an underrated player and a very good number two option, who caught more touchdowns than anyone on the Jets last year. Owen Daniels is a pro-bowl tight end. Steve Slaton is an explosive player, who averaged almost 5 yards per carry last season, although he did lose 3 fumbles. DeMeco Ryans is one of the best linebackers in football. Mario Williams is a top flight pass rusher. Houston coaches have been raving about rookie Brian Cushing at outside linebacker.

Jets Injury Concerns: Mike DeVito is a little banged up but expected to start for Shaun Ellis (suspension) and rotate defensive line reps with Sione Pouha, Marques Douglas, and Kris Jenkins. Shonn Greene is nursing sore ribs and a sore hamstring but should be active as the #3 RB. Backup quarterback Kellen Clemens has a sore elbow, but will be the #2 QB on Sunday.

Early Story Lines: Rex Ryan’s first game as a Head Coach…rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez’s first start…Darrelle Revis vs Andre Johnson…Texans look to justify pre-season expectations…expected great defense (Jets) vs expected great offense (Texans).

I’m glad we got Darrelle Revis