Week 7 of the NFL season has arrived and that can only mean one thing around these parts – more losing picks provided by yours truly! But fear not, loyal readers, I’ve made some changes to my strategy this week and I can feel a big week coming. I’ve picked a few games that I feel strongly about myself and for the rest that I have no feel on, I’ve resorted to finding the opinions of some of the NFL pundits whose thoughts I value the least (like Mike Florio, for example) and went against them. That means it’s winning time! Let’s get to it… Continue reading “TOJ: Week 7 NFL Gambling Advice”
Can you believe it’s already Week 6 of the NFL season? Man oh man, it sure is flying by. We haven’t quite gotten off to the start I was looking for here through five weeks, but before you know it you’ll look up and say “Wow it’s already week 12?!” and you’ll check my record here to see things have turned around in a big way…. Ok, maybe not, but I’m gonna give it my best shot anyway. It’s the point in the season where you can start to get a read on some teams, so hopefully that helps going forward. Let’s get rolling. Continue reading “TOJ Week 6 NFL Gambling Advice”
Mike Donnelly breaks down this week’s gambling lines and gives fantasy football advice for week 5.
At this point I feel like I can just copy and paste the intro paragraph from last week’s column when it comes to my weekly picks. “Well, last week didn’t quite go the way I had hoped, but this week I feel like it’s about to turn around!” This week, however, I actually do feel real good about my best bets, so at least there’s that. And while the picks were umm, not the best shall we say last week, my fantasy takes were actually pretty spot on.
This week I’m going to give you one player in each game that should outperform expectations and that I’d recommend you start, especially if you are having bye week problems. It should go without saying, but I’m not going to tell you to start your stud players. I’m looking at mid-range kind of guys here. I’d say “sleepers” but there’s no such thing in fantasy these days. Let’s get started.. Continue reading “TOJ Week 5 – Point Spreads, Picks, and Fantasy Football”
Turn On The Jets Week 4 NFL Gambling and Fantasy Football Outlook
Well, it’s Week 4 and things haven’t quite gone as planned so far here with my weekly picks. The visions I had dancing in my head of starting the season on fire and having all our readers begging for my picks haven’t quite materialized… yet! Ok, ok, that’s probably never going to happen, and you may be better off fading me at this point, but I feel it all turning around this week! There’s plenty of room left here on the bandwagon (current occupancy: 1).
And to shake things up this week, I’m not gonna just give my reasons for why each team will cover. Instead, I’m gonna also break things down by giving my fantasy football takes on each game and which players you should be thinking about starting or sitting when Sunday afternoon rolls around. You’re welcome.
Mike Donnelly with Week 3 gambling advice on all of the NFL action.
After going 8-8 last week on the heels of Week 1’s mini disaster, things are starting to look up for me as we head into Week 3. This is the time of the season when you start to get a feel for teams but unfortunately so do the Las Vegas bookmakers and the lines become increasingly difficult. Let’s see if we can go ahead and beat them this week and make a few bucks… you know, if gambling were legal and all. Continue reading “TOJ – Week 3 NFL Gambling Advice”
Ok, so week 1 didn’t exactly go as planned as the games I liked the most let me down. The Giants and Panthers really let me down with late cover blowing, as DeAngelo Williams fumbled late inside the 20 and Eli Manning threw a pick 6. Oh well, time to bounce back here in week 2. Let’s get to it.
Jets +12.5 @ Patriots – 1 for 1 this week! Things are turning around! Continue reading “TOJ – Week 2 NFL Gambling Advice”
Mike Donnelly with week 1 NFL Fantasy and Gambling Advice
Well look what we have here. The Turn On The Jets gambling column has found a new home in 2013 and it is right here in Donnellyville. Joe searched high and low for the most degenerate gambler he could find, and he picked me. I’m honored. I truly am. Each week I’m going to run down all the games and give a brief synopsis on why I’m picking who I am. Then I’m going to give you my 5 “Best Bets” which are typically the games I’m going to be betting on myself and the “Teaser of the Week”. Yes, teasers are usually sucker bets, but they’re fun, and every once in a while I nail a good one. Then afterwards, I’m gonna give my fantasy football advice for the week. You’re welcome. Let’s get started. Continue reading “TOJ – Week 1 Gambling and Fantasy Football Advice”
Week 3 record: 0-3-0
Season record: 3-5-1
I’m just going to go ahead and do what everybody else did who had a bad week last week and blame it on the replacement refs.
Speaking of replacement refs, on Thursday morning after the league struck the deal to bring back the real refs, I happened to be listening to Mike and Mike on my way into work (The iPod connection in my car is broken and Boomer and Carton were at a commercial, okay). They had Adam Schefter on, which should have been an big enough clue to turn the channel and spare myself, but I kept it on. The first thing Schefter did, I kid you not, was praise Steve Young and Trent Dilfer for speaking their minds about the whole Monday Night reffing debacle. This made me want to veer off the side of the road and total my car. I guess the best thing you can say is that Schefter didn’t give himself the credit for ending the ref lockout, although that’s pretty much what he was doing. “Look at us here at ESPN! We’re not just shills for our husbands, the NFL! And better yet, what we say matters!” As if at any point during the negotiations, anybody brought up anything Trent Dilfer or Steve Young said. This just in: ESPN somewhat enjoys itself.
Patriots (-4) at Bills
The Patriots can’t lose three straight and start out 1-3, right? I would love to see it happen, but I just can’t. I have to think the Pats will go into this one totally desperate. Plus, did you see how the Bills’ defense looked against the Jets? Have you seen what the Jets offense has looked like since? I suppose the Pats’ offense isn’t as dominant as it once was, but I still can’t see them struggling to score too much. They should win by a touchdown.
Falcons -7 vs. Panthers
This season is setting up so darn perfectly for Matt Ryan and the Falcons. They really are the NFL’s new version of the San Diego Chargers, and Ryan is playing the Philip Rivers role. Ryan’s done nothing since turning pro except put up good numbers, win a lot in the regular season and crap the bed in the postseason. Sound familiar? The Falcons will roll to something like 13-3 this year, get a bye, then host the Giants in the 2nd round and lose 27-13. As for this week, they’ll put up enough points at home against a woeful Carolina team to cover this spread.
Giants +1.5 at Eagles
The road team in this rivalry always seems to play well, and the Giants in general are usually steady away from home. Lincoln Financial Field is going to be all sorts boozed up for this one in a way only Philadelphians can, which is going to make it even sweeter when the Giants waltz in and pummel Michael Vick. At halftime, Eagles fans will be chanting for Nick Foles, and will then spend the entire second half on hold trying to get through to WIP’s postgame show to complain about “Andy Reid’s Awwfensive playcawwwling down thurr awn the gowl loine”.
Bonus Non-Football Bet of the Week (Season Record 2-1)
We nailed it last week with Manchester United over Liverpool, so let’s stick with the Premier League and another big matchup between two of England’s top teams, Chelsea and Arsenal. Chelsea is in first place and has only allowed two goals in five Premier League games so far. Arsenal ha started to score a little more as of late, but started the year off by being shutout by Stoke City and Sunderland. I like Chelsea’s chances to pitch another shutout and snag a late goal, and at +235 I think it’s worth a shot.
Chris Celletti kicks off his weekly NFL gambling column with a look at over/unders, MVP and Super Bowl bets
We are happy to welcome Chris Celletti to the TOJ writing staff for the 2012 NFL season. He will be contributing a weekly NFL gambling column every Friday. Make sure to give Chris a follow on Twitter and all the credit if you hit on any of these bets –
So preseason is finally, finally over, which means the beginning of the NFL gambling season (unless you have a serious problem and have been betting on preseason games, which I’m sure about 85% of the NFL gambling population does, no questions asked). Each week during the regular season, I’ll give you three picks against the spread.
And let’s get this out of the way, here’s my disclaimer: I am in no way trying to pass myself off as any sort of gambling expert. I don’t study how lines move during the week because I have a job, a life and friends. I’m simply going to waddle up to my computer every Friday or so and look at that week’s schedule, pick three games, and give football reasons as to why. From time-to-time I’ll also throw in a non-football bet and other random thoughts that pop into my head. We’ll tally my record and keep a running total each week and see how horrifically I did at the end of the year, because we all know betting on football has zilch to do with anything football related. This is gonna be a fun exercise.
So since we’re still a wee bit off until the actual games kickoff, I thought I’d debut with some futures bets; a few team over/unders and MVP and Super Bowl Champs bets. As with my weekly picks to come, I plan on having a big old laugh when looking back on these in February when the season is over and Mike Tannenbaum takes over for Bill Polian as ESPN’s “Expert NFL GM”.
FYI: I get lines from Bovada.
Baltimore Ravens (10) – UNDER
My dad is a huge believer of “being due” in sports, and he’s passed that on to me. This ranges from everything like “Good god is Swisher OVERDUE for a homer” to “All the home teams have won on Wild Card Weekend so far, one of the road teams has to win”. It’s completely illogical and totally irrational, and yet I still believe in it. And to me, the Baltimore Ravens are due for a crap year. They’ve made the playoffs in all of John Harbaugh’s four seasons, which is a miraculous accomplishment given that Joe Flacco has been the starting quarterback for all of them. And of course it’s because of the Ravens’ defense, which to me is on its last legs. Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are on the way out, and Terrell Suggs is hurt. Their schedule isn’t a murderer’s row but does include games with the Giants, Cowboys, Eagles and of course two with the rival Steelers. It’s just pretty hard in the NFL to have five straight winning/playoff seasons, especially with a quarterback like Flacco. I don’t expect the Ravens to be bad, but I can see 8-8.
Jacksonville Jaguars (5.5) – UNDER
This is the biggest dumpster of a franchise in the NFL and it’s not even close. Can you blame Maurice Jones-Drew for wanting out? The Jags and Jets should have pulled a Tebow-MJD trade, but the Jags would rather start Blaine Gabbert at quarterback than someone who, at the very least, would fill their stadium. Oh, wait, this is easy to figure out…their owner wants absolutely nothing to do with the city of Jacksonville. Additionally, the Jags have the NFC North and the AFC East on their schedule this year. It will take them until they’re the London Jaguars before they win six games in a season.
Denver Broncos (9) – OVER
It’s going to be close but I have the Broncos slightly over, probably by about a game or so. The competition in the AFC West will remain mediocre and Denver’s schedule isn’t too bad. And then there’s this: last year, this team won eight games and one in the playoffs with Tim Tebow at quarterback. This season, they made an itty-bitty upgrade at the position with Peyton Manning. Peyton Manning throwing with his left hand could win 10 games if he gets half the support Lefty Jesus got last year from this defense, special teams and running game.
Eli Manning (18/1)
The Giants’ offense has a chance to be insanely good. If David Wilson is even a fraction as good as every Giants blogger has blabbered on about since April, and Ahmad Bradshaw stays healthy, can’t Elisha have a truly MVP-caliber season? With any semblance of a running game Eli should put up monster numbers throwing to Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Co. Of course for Eli to win the MVP, the Giants will need to have a big regular season, something many seem to think isn’t going to happen, but I do (and then they’ll promptly lose in the first round of the playoffs because that’s how the Giants do things). To me, there’s no reason at all why guys like Michael Vick, Arian Foster and Matt Stafford should have better odds to win the MVP than Eli.
Super Bowl Champs
New Orleans (18/1)
What the Saints will prove this year is that in the NFL, coaching doesn’t mean a whole lot when you have a great quarterback who runs your offense from the huddle/line of scrimmage. In 2009, The Colts went 14-2 (should have went 16-0) with Jim Caldwell as their head coach, and Jim Caldwell is about as aware of his surroundings as a deer that sprints across the Garden State Parkway . The only reason that Colts team was worth anything was because of Peyton Manning. The Saints still have that whether Sean Payton is on the sidelines or not because of Drew Brees, and Brees also still has plenty of explosive weapons to use. The whole bounty scandal will end up being good for them because it forced ax-murderer wannabe Greg Williams and his Transitions lenses out of town, and Nola replaced him with Steve Spagnuolo, a totally competent and Super Bowl winning defensive coordinator. Besides, defense means jack in the NFL these days, just ask last year’s Patriots. And then there’s the dome. The Saints are impossible to beat in that dome. If they can get to the Super Bowl, well, do you know where the Super Bowl is this year? Why take the Eagles at 11/1 (this is a joke, right?) or the Bears at 15/1 if the Saints are sitting there below them?
New York Jets (40/1)
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