Jets vs. Bengals: 12 Pack Of Predictions

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A very special Thanksgiving edition of the 12 pack…

1. Enough is enough. The Jets are going to break through and finally intercept a couple of passes. I know I have said this in previous weeks, but c’mon now this is Carson Palmer we are talking about. It time for 2-3 interceptions in a single game by this secondary.

2. Inactive list – Jerricho Cotchery, Dwight Lowery, Marquice Cole, Damien Woody, Jeff Cumberland, Kellen Clemens, Marcus Dixon, Jamaal Westerman

3. Terrell Owens will have less than 35 yards receiving…and still run his mouth after the game.

4. The Jets will try to re-establish Shonn Greene’s confidence early and for the third week in a row he will finish with more carries than LaDainian Tomlinson. Greene will also score his second touchdown of the season.

5. Dustin Keller is way overdue for a touchdown. He hasn’t scored since week 4. This is the week he gets touchdown number six.

6. Mark Sanchez won’t throw for 300 yards but he will add another 2 touchdowns to his season total without producing any turnovers.

7. The Jets will spend plenty of time in their “Tiger” formation which gashed the Bengals last regular season. Brad Smith will have at least 45 total offensive yards and a big kick return.

8. Calvin Pace will record a multiple sack game and provide some hope for the Jets pass rush moving forward into December.

9. LaDainian Tomlinson will have at least 5 more receptions to add to his team leading total. Braylon Edwards will also have a big game, as Cincinnati has nobody to match-up on him since they will likely put Leon Hall on Santonio Holmes and Jonathan Joseph is hurt.

10. Chad Ochcocinco will unfortunately score a touchdown. Fortunately, it will likely be in garbage time since the Bengals spend most of their season in garbage time.

11. The Jets are getting a comfortable 30-14 win. That being said, considering the way this season is going they will probably go up 30-14, fall behind 31-30 with 8 seconds left and then complete a 90 touchdown to Patrick Turner or something like that to win.

12. Happy Thanksgiving to all the readers, followers, commenters, and anybody else who takes the time to stopt by the site, facebook page, or twitter account…you could be anywhere in the world, but you’re here with me…and I appreciate that.

Week 12 Picks (Lines From BetUS)

  • Lions (+8.5) vs. Patriots
  • Saints (-4.5) vs. Cowboys
  • Jets (-9) vs. Bengals
  • Vikings (+1) vs. Redskins
  • Bills (+8) vs. Steelers
  • Jags (+7) vs. Giants
  • Bucs (+7.5) vs. Ravens
  • Eagles (-4.5) vs. Bears
  • Falcons (-1) vs. Packers
  • Chiefs (-2.5) vs. Seahawks
  • Broncos (-4) vs. Rams
  • Chargers (+3) vs. Colts
  • I refuse to pick the MNF Game because it is so terrible the NFC West should never be featured in prime-time.

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Jets vs. Bengals Game Breakdown

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First a few updates:

1. David Harris did practice today, although he was limited. However, from all reports he looked pretty good and should start at linebacker on Saturday. Donald Strickland was the only other player who was limited in practice and he could be a game-time decision. Steve Weatherford (who complimented my prediction skills on facebook) was practicing full and should be 100 percent for Saturday.

2. It is looking like somewhere between 10-20 degrees with a chance of flurries on Saturday at 4:30 PM…you are a long way from USC Mark Sanchez.

3. Rex Ryan continued to argue for Darrelle Revis as the Defensive Player of the Year today…you focus on the Bengals, Rex…I am going to argue for Darrelle’s cause a little later in the day.

4. Stop by (www.greenrewind.com) to check out Marty Schupak’s latest podcast, which features an appearance by yours truly along with plenty of other Jets writers/bloggers. Also check out the Fantasy Buffet radio show at (http://www.blogtalkradio.com/fanball/2009/12/21/fantasy-buffet) where I will be making an appearance tomorrow around 11 AM.

5. Don’t forget to friend me on facebook and then become a fan of the Turn On The Jets page to find extra commentary, links to other Jets article, along with all the stuff you could here on this site.

6. A new episode of TOJ TV has been filmed and should be posted tomorrow afternoon or maybe even tonight if I decide to avoid being lazy.

Jets vs. Bengals Game Breakdown

Offense: The playoffs is not the time for the Jets to abandon what got them there. It is time to run the football. I have to give Brian Schottenheimer and Bill Callahan credit for their creativity with the Jets rushing attack. Teams know the Jets are going to run the ball and try to keep it out of Sanchez’s hands but they have still found a way to get the job done. Expect to see plenty of Wayne Hunter and Robert Turner off the bench, which means the Jets are going to have seven lineman in the game and are basically saying “we are running the ball, we know you know it but you can’t stop it.” You can bet on Thomas Jones getting his 20-25 carries and Shonn Greene adding on another 12-15.

The key for the Jets running game is going to be setting up third and short for Mark Sanchez, where the Jets have a reasonable option to both run and pass. One of the Jets favorite plays in a 3rd and 3 type situation is putting Jerricho Cotchery in the slot, bringing him in motion over the center and then sprinting him back out towards the slot, having Sanchez roll out and throw a quick 3 yard out to him, if you fast forward to 6:44 in this clip below, you will see a variation of this play. I don’t have the exact numbers on this play but by my count the Jets are about 10 for 10 on this play this year (they also ran it with Keller as the 2 point conversion vs the Colts, as you could see in the other clip below at the 2:46 mark and with Edwards against Jacksonville as you could see in the clip below that at the 2:59 mark). The point is that, they need to put themselves in situations where they could run this play and other ones they are comfortable with/have a high success rate with on third down.

You will also see plenty of the Jets “Tiger” formation. I don’t care how much time the Bengals spent on Brad Smith this week, NFL teams are not used to defending all the variations of option the Jets could run with Smith under center. It is a tremendous advantage that Smith can’t not only run the traditional “Wildcat” but is comfortable taking direct snaps. He has shown an ability to execute the pitch relationship with Shonn Greene and convert the pitch to him if the defensive end gets out in front of him. Also, let’s not forget Smith threw for 8,000 yards in college and I can promise you one of the first “Tiger” plays the Jets run will involve Smith throwing a pass (likely a short one to be safe) just to make the Bengals think twice every time Smith rolls out and if they hesitate, there is no reason this can’t happen again:

It would go a long way towards a Jets victory if Mark Sanchez and Braylon Edwards can convert on a big play down the field. The Jets obviously struggle scoring points and if they could grab a quick seven, it would be a huge boost in a low scoring game and soften up the Bengals defense against the Jets run. Sanchez has done a good job on deep balls this season but hasn’t always been helped by his wide receivers. Here are three clips of Sanchez throwing and connecting on a well-thrown deep ball. Finally, it has been said a thousand times but Sanchez must protect the football at all costs. If he doesn’t turn the ball over, there is no reason the Jets can’t be off to Indy or San Diego.

Sanchez to Cotchery at 3:04

Sanchez to Braylon at 0:51

Sanchez to Clowney at 2:02

Defense: The key for the Jets is to slow down Cedric Benson and the Bengals rushing attack. The Jets defensive line has overachieved all season and Marques Douglas, Sione Pouha, Mike DeVito, and Shaun Eliis need a big game. We need David Harris to continually introduce himself to Benson throughout the game and force the Bengals into third and long, and then eventually abandon their running game. The bottom line is that the Bengals can’t throw on the Jets. Darrelle Revis will do his job on Ochocinco and they have nobody else who can hurt the Jets down the field. However, it goes beyond the Jets limiting the Bengals rushing attack and preventing big plays in the passing game. The Jets need to force turnovers and sack the quarterback, to help their offense score points.

Outside of Cedric Benson, the Bengals starting offense played last week for the entire half and was completely embarrassed. Whether or not they ran a vanilla package and hid some things, don’t tell me there isn’t some doubt in their mind about their ability to move the ball on the Jets defense. It isn’t like they just had a bad half of football…a bad half is getting shut out but still gaining some yards and completing some passes. Carson Palmer was 1/11 for 0 yards with an interception and the only first down the Bengals got was on a questionable penalty on the Jets. If the Jets can get off to a fast start on defense and force a few 3 and outs, the Bengals are going to start questioning themselves and maybe trying to force some things.

Special Teams: This is going to be a low scoring game, which means a big return could swing the final results. It has to be the Jets who get good field position or a touchdown because of their special teams units, not the Bengals. One of the things I am most worried about is a big return from Bernard Scott on kickoffs. However, don’t be shocked to see a fake punt from Mike Westhoff and the Jets special teams units.

Jets vs. Bengals Position By Position Comparison

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First a few updates:

1. Rex Ryan did what he does best today (except coach defense) and grabbed headlines by saying he believes the Jets should be favorites in the playoffs because of their defense and running game. This story will likely get blown out of proportion, basically Ryan was informed the Jets had the lowest odds (now 50 to 1) of any playoff team and said that he believes in his team and he would personally pick them as favorites…the guy has confidence in his team. Yes, it is crazy to think the Jets should be the favorites in these playoffs but if their head coach doesn’t believe they are going to win it all, why even bother…however that doesn’t mean he needed to say it to the press.

2. You want see Ryan’s impact on the Jets defense? Read this: (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/

kerry_byrne/01/05/ryan/index.html).

3. 11 out of 12? That is the highest I have seen them yet. (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers

/don_banks/01/06/playoff.power.rankings/index.html).

Jets vs. Bengals Position By Position Comparison

Quarterback: Carson Palmer (3094 yards, 21 TDs, 13 INTs, 83.6 QB Rating) vs. Mark Sanchez (2444 yards, 12 TDs, 20 INTs, 63.0 QB Rating) – Palmer isn’t the elite quarterback he used to be but is still a good player. This is really his first playoff game since he got hurt on the 1st play of his last playoff game. Sanchez has struggled with turnovers and consistency in his rookie year. Advantage: Jets….just kidding…Bengals.

Running Backs: Cedric Benson (1251 yards, 6 TDs, 4.2 YPC), Bernard Scott (321 yards), Brian Leonard (30 receptions) vs. Thomas Jones (1402 yards, 14 TDs, 4.2 YPC), Shonn Greene (540 yards, 2 TDs), Danny Woodhead (151 total yards) – I will take Thomas Jones over Cedric Benson any day of the week, Shonn Greene has been better than Scott this year despite not starting to play until the middle of the season. Leonard is a valuable third down back and a better player than Woodhead. Advantage: Jets.

Fullback: Tony Richardson (58 total yards) vs. Jeremi Johnson (49 total yards) – Johnson is a good player but Richardson is one of the best in the NFL. Advantage: Jets.

Wide Receivers: Chad Ochocinco (1047 yards, 9 TDs), Laveranues Coles (514 yards, 5 TDs), Andre Caldwell (432 yards, 3 TDs), Quan Cosby (4 catches, 55 yards) vs. Braylon Edwards (541 yards, 4 TDs), Jerricho Cotchery (821 yards, 4 TDs), Brad Smith (270 total yards, 1 TD), David Clowney (191 yards, 1 TD)Ochocinco is a better #1 receiver than Braylon but Cotchery is a substantially better #2 receiver than Coles. Caldwell is a better pure receiver than Brad Smith, but Smith is more of a weapon and big play threat. Clowney might not be active on Saturday. Advantage: Even.

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Tight Ends: J.P. Foschi (260 yards, 2 TDs), Daniel Coats (150 yards) vs. Dustin Keller (522 yards, 2 TDs), Ben Hartsock (1 TD), Wayne Hunter, Robert Turner – Keller isn’t used enough by the Jets but is still a much more productive and dangerous player than anyone the Bengals could line up at tight end. Advantage: Jets.

Offensive Line: Andrew Whitworth, Nate Livings, Kyle Cook, Bobbie Williams, Dennis Roland vs. D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Alan Faneca, Nick Mangold, Brandon Moore, Damien Woody – The Jets front five have started the past 32 games together and are arguably the best unit in the game. They are anchored by All-Pro center Nick Mangold. Advantage: Jets.

Defensive Line: Robert Geathers (36 tackles, 3.5 sacks), Domata Peko (23 tackles), Tank Johnson (29 tackles, 2 sacks), Jonathan Fanene (36 tackles, 6 sacks), Michael Johnson (17 tackles, 3 sacks) vs. Shaun Ellis (53 tackles, 6.5 sacks), Sione Pouha (45 tackles), Marques Douglas (64 tackles, 1.5 sacks), Mike DeVito (28 tackles) – Two underrated units who lack a big name but still get the job done. I will give the advantage to the Bengals because they do a better job of rushing the passer. Advantage: Bengals

Linebackers: Rashad Jeanty (20 tackles), Dhani Jones (113 tackles, 3.5 sacks), Keith Rivers (72 tackles, 1 sack), Brandon Johnson (58 tackles, 1.5 sacks) vs. David Harris (127 tackles, 5.5 sacks), Calvin Pace (55 tackles, 8 sacks), Bart Scott (92 tackles, 1 sack), Bryan Thomas (53 tackles, 2 sacks) – Even if Rey Maualuga didn’t get hurt, I would still give the advantage to the Jets. David Harris should be have been in the pro-bowl and if Calvin Pace didn’t miss the first four games with a suspension he might have made it also. Advantage: Jets

Corners: Leon Hall (71 tackles, 6 INTs), Jonathan Joseph (69 tackles, 6 INTs), Morgan Trent (28 tackles), David Jones (11 tackles) vs. Darrelle Revis (54 tackles, 6 INTs), Lito Sheppard (31 tackles, 1 INT), Dwight Lowery (24 tackles, 3 INTs), Donald Strickland (26 tackles, 2 sacks) – The Jets have the best overall player and better depth but the Bengals have a better starting duo. Advantage: Even.

Safety: Chris Crocker (51 tackles, 2 INTs), Chinedum Ndukwe (89 tackles, 1 INT, 2 sacks), Tom Nelson (25 tackles, 1 INT) vs. Jim Leonhard (76 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 1 INT), Kerry Rhodes (63 tackles, 3 INTs), Eric Smith (48 tackles, 1 INT), James Ihedigbo (2 sacks) – Pretty even here, although Kerry Rhodes is probably the most talented guy in the group despite having a very disappointing season. Advantage: Even.

Special Teams: Shayne Graham (23/28 FG’s), Kevin Huber (43.2 yards per punt), Bernard Scott (1 KR TD), Quan Cosby (11.9 yards per punt return) vs. Jay Feely (30/36 FGs), Steve Weatherford (42 yards per punt), Brad Smith (1 KR TD), Jerricho Cotchery (10.3 yards per punt return) – The numbers are very comparable across the board, although the Jets have pulled four successful fake punts this season. Advantage: Jets.


Jets vs. Bengals First Look

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First a few updates:

1. David Harris and Steve Weatherford missed practice today. Harris is likely going to be a game-time decision, while I would expect Weatherford to play. James Ihedigbo left practice today with a stinger but did return. Thomas Jones and Tony Richardson were given the day off. The backup to David Harris, Ryan Fowler, was limited with a head injury and if for some reason he and Harris couldn’t play…Kenwin Cummings would start at inside linebacker.

2. Cedric Benson told the media today that he didn’t even know who David Harris was and that he doubted the Jets would struggle without him. Harris is the leading tackler on the Jets #1 ranked defense with 127 stops, along with 5.5 sacks and 2 interceptions. I wonder if Benson knows who Thomas Jones is? The guy he was drafted to replace in Chicago but could never beat out. The guy who despite being 5 years older than him finished with 151 more rushing yards and 8 more touchdowns than him this season and was able to stay healthy enough to play all 16 games, while Benson couldn’t.

3. Condolences to Jets owner Woody Johnson and his family. His daughter passed away yesterday.

4. How about Teddy Bruschi on ESPN saying that the Jets have the best chance to make the Super Bowl out of the two wild-card teams? I think he was trying to jinx them.

5. The Bengals are coming into the came 100 percent healthy with Chad Ochocinco, Chris Crocker, and Domata Peko all expected to start.

6. The Jets finished #12 in ESPN’s Power Rankings, not bad for a team that started the season as ranked #23.

7. Well we know how Jeffri Chadiha of ESPN feels about the Jets (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/2009/columns/story?columnist=chadiha_jeffri&id=4795473), then again this guy is picking Tony Romo to win three playoff games, so I wouldn’t be too worried.

Jets vs. Bengals First Look

Bengals Offensive Starters/Key Reserves

  • Quarterback: Carson Palmer – 282/466, 3094 yards, 60.5 completion percentage, 21 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 83.6 QB Rating.
  • Running Back: Cedric Benson – 301 carries, 1251 yards, 4.2 yards per carry, 6 TD’s.
  • Third Down Back: Bernard Scott – 74 carries, 321 yards, 4.3 yards per carry.
  • Back-Up Running Back: Larry Johnson – 46 carries, 204 yards, 4.4 yards per carry.
  • Other Third Down Back: Brian Leonard – 27 carries, 84 yards, 3.1 yards per carry, 30 receptions, 217 yards
  • Fullback: Jeremi Johnson – 4 carries, 8 yards, 6 receptions, 41 yards.
  • #1 Receiver: Chad Ochocinco – 72 receptions, 1047 yards, 9 touchdowns.
  • #2 Receiver: Laveranues Coles – 43 receptions, 514 yards, 5 touchdowns.
  • #3 Receiver: Andre Caldwell – 51 receptions, 432 yards, 3 touchdowns.
  • #4 Receiver: Quan Cosby – 4 receptions, 55 yards
  • Tight End: J.P. Foschi – 27 receptions, 260 yards, 2 touchdowns
  • #2 Tight End: Daniel Coats – 16 receptions, 150 yards
  • Left Tackle: Andrew Whitworth
  • Left Guard: Nate Livings
  • Center: Kyle Cook
  • Right Guard: Bobbie Williams
  • Right Tackle: Dennis Roland

Bengals Defensive Starters/Key Reserves

  • Defensive End: Robert Geathers – 36 tackles, 3.5 sacks
  • Defensive Tackle: Domata Peko – 23 tackles
  • Defensive Tackle: Tank Johnson – 29 tackles, 2.0 sacks
  • Defensive End: Jonathan Fanene – 36 tackles, 6.0 sacks
  • Outside Linebacker: Rashad Jeanty – 20 tackles
  • Middle Linebacker: Dhani Jones – 113 tackles, 3.5 sacks
  • Outside Linebacker: Keith Rivers – 72 tackles, 1 sack
  • Corner: Leon Hall – 71 tackles, 6 INTs
  • Corner: Jonathan Joseph – 69 tackles, 6 INTs
  • Safety: Chris Crocker – 51 tackles, 2 INTs
  • Safety: Chinedum Ndukwe – 89 tackles, 1 INT

Special Teams

  • Kicker: Shayne Graham – 23/28 FGs, 28/29 PATs, (1 miss from 20-29 yards, 2 misses from 30-39 yards)
  • Punter: Kevin Huber – 43.2 yards per punt
  • Kick Return: Bernard Scott – 1 return touchdown, 31.5 average
  • Punt Return: Quan Cosby – 11.9 per return.

PhotobucketOffense – The Bengals offense is built like the Jets offense, which means they live by the run. Carson Palmer isn’t an elite quarterback anymore but still had a good overall season. He can be relied on to make some plays if the running game is slowed down, yet the Bengals are weak at wide receiver. Chad Ochocinco isn’t going to be a factor this week, I can promise you that and beyond him the Bengals have nothing at receiver. Laveraneus Coles is washed up and Andre Caldwell is average. They also don’t have a pass catching threat at tight end. Cedric Benson has been very good this year and Brian Leonard has made plays for them on third downs. However, I have a tough time seeing Benson gashing the Jets defense. Honestly, I would be shocked if the Bengals scored more than 17 points unless Sanchez turns the ball over.

Defense – Cincy has been very strong against the run all season. However, they are now missing linebacker Rey Maualuga which will have a negative impact on them. The Jets are going to run the ball, regardless of how many people the Bengals put in the box. I am sure Cincy has spent plenty of time on Brad Smith this week in practice and they should expect more of him this week. The Bengals have two very good corners and talent at safety as well. Mark Sanchez has to be careful against their secondary because there isn’t going to be a ton of space for Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery to work with.

Special Teams – I am very worried about Bernard Scott ripping off a kick return touchdown against us this week. However, keep an eye on Brad Smith on our kick return unit because he has been improving all season. I think we have an advantage at the kicker position.

Well They Couldn’t Beat Oakland