Turn On The Jets – NFL Week 5 Best Bets

Chris Celletti with his Best Bets for week 5 of the NFL Season

Eat. Drink. Football. Gamble. America. Make sure to check out our deal this weekend courtesy of Night Out. $20 for 20 wings and 2 pitchers of beer.

Week 4 Record 1-2

Season Record: 4-7-1

Damn you Larry Tynes! Once again, never bet on your crosstown rival. It just never works.

So I watched the Presidential Debate on Thursday night. It was horrible television, as most debates are. Everybody was ripping moderator Jim Lehrer for not taking control, but why even have a moderator on these things? Neither candidate follows the format whatsoever. This is how a presidential debate generally goes:

Candidate 1: “…And that’s how I plan on putting Americans back to work!”

Moderator: “Candidate 2, can you directly respond to Candidate 1’s plan to add jobs to the economy?”

Candidate 2: “Well, one thing I agree on with my opponent is that our military must remain the strongest in the world.”

These guys aren’t debating crap. They’re simply spewing pre-canned responses of their positions regardless of what the other says or what they were actually asked by the useless moderator. Unless you’re Mitt Romney, who essentially lied for 90 minutes and was deemed the run away winner. Only in American politics.

But the real reason I bring this up was that I saw a freakish parallel between the Presidential race – specifically the debate and the reaction to it – and the NFL. After the debate, it was widely opined that Romney had won. This was a shock to most people. Most expected President Obama to whitewash Romney. After the debate, there was incredible overreaction on both sides…just like we see each and every week in the NFL. It was like if the Colts beat the Packers this week. Massive underdogs, the Colts would be riding an incredible wave of high after beating an incumbent great NFL team. And good for them if they do, they should feel great about themselves. But you know if that happens, you’ll see Peter King dedicate four pages of his column on how sneaky-good the Colts are, how Andrew Luck is already a top-10 quarterback in the NFL and headed for Canton and how brilliantly the Colts are run from an organizational standpoint. And then you’ll flip on ESPN and Mark Schlereth will be babbling inanities like “The Packers are in trouble,” or “I’m seeing a shift in Aaron Rodgers that tells me he just isn’t the same guy he once was.”

Last night after the debate, Chris Matthews on MSNBC had me thinking I was watching Jets’ Post Game Live on SNY. He was totally distraught, yelling into the camera things like “What was he (Obama) doing out there!? Who was that guy!?” You can pretty much tune into SNY after every Jet game and get the same thing from Ray Lucas talking about Mark Sanchez. And of course Romney supporters are already pouring their scotch in anticipation of a November MittFest. It was just one good night for Romney, one bad one for Obama, and there’s so much that can and will happen in the time being. But you know, we can’t be rational about things like politics and sports.

Point of this all is, can we somehow find a way to have Mike Francesa moderate the next debate? Please?

Anyway, I’m supposed to make some picks or something in this column, so here we go:

Green Bay -7 at Colts

Ha! See what I did there? But no, really. Pack are due for a big win.

Bills +9.5 at 49ers

I in no way think the Bills are heading to the west coast and beating the Niners, but I think they’ll put up a much better fight than the Jets or Obama did (back to the politics for a second: who coached Obama before that debate, Brian Schottenheimer? “Hey Barry, here’s what you DON’T do: mention that 47% thing. Way too risky. Run the ball.”) Even if it’s a 14 point game late, I could see a late touchdown and a backdoor cover for the Bills.

Saints -4 vs. Chargers

It’s gonna be a silly high scoring game, but I think it’s about time the Saints won a darn football game. Back home at the dome, I think they’ll finally get on the board, and by a touchdown at least.

Bonus Non-Football Bet of the Week (Season Record 3-1)

We’re two for our last two in the English Premier League, so why mess with a broken thing? Let’s make it tiny bit harder and go with a little two-game parlay, Fulham (+165) over Southampton and Everton (+100) over Wigan.

Turn On The Jets NFL Week 4 Best Bets

Week 3 record: 0-3-0

Season record: 3-5-1

I’m just going to go ahead and do what everybody else did who had a bad week last week and blame it on the replacement refs.

Speaking of replacement refs, on Thursday morning after the league struck the deal to bring back the real refs, I happened to be listening to Mike and Mike on my way into work (The iPod connection in my car is broken and Boomer and Carton were at a commercial, okay). They had Adam Schefter on, which should have been an big enough clue to turn the channel and spare myself, but I kept it on. The first thing Schefter did, I kid you not, was praise Steve Young and Trent Dilfer for speaking their minds about the whole Monday Night reffing debacle. This made me want to veer off the side of the road and total my car. I guess the best thing you can say is that Schefter didn’t give himself the credit for ending the ref lockout, although that’s pretty much what he was doing. “Look at us here at ESPN! We’re not just shills for our husbands, the NFL! And better yet, what we say matters!” As if at any point during the negotiations, anybody brought up anything Trent Dilfer or Steve Young said. This just in: ESPN somewhat enjoys itself.

Patriots (-4) at Bills

The Patriots can’t lose three straight and start out 1-3, right? I would love to see it happen, but I just can’t. I have to think the Pats will go into this one totally desperate. Plus, did you see how the Bills’ defense looked against the Jets? Have you seen what the Jets offense has looked like since? I suppose the Pats’ offense isn’t as dominant as it once was, but I still can’t see them struggling to score too much. They should win by a touchdown.

Falcons -7 vs. Panthers

This season is setting up so darn perfectly for Matt Ryan and the Falcons. They really are the NFL’s new version of the San Diego Chargers, and Ryan is playing the Philip Rivers role. Ryan’s done nothing since turning pro except put up good numbers, win a lot in the regular season and crap the bed in the postseason. Sound familiar? The Falcons will roll to something like 13-3 this year, get a bye, then host the Giants in the 2nd round and lose 27-13. As for this week, they’ll put up enough points at home against a woeful Carolina team to cover this spread.

Giants +1.5 at Eagles

The road team in this rivalry always seems to play well, and the Giants in general are usually steady away from home. Lincoln Financial Field is going to be all sorts boozed up for this one in a way only Philadelphians can, which is going to make it even sweeter when the Giants waltz in and pummel Michael Vick. At halftime, Eagles fans will be chanting for Nick Foles, and will then spend the entire second half on hold trying to get through to WIP’s postgame show to complain about “Andy Reid’s Awwfensive playcawwwling down thurr awn the gowl loine”.

Bonus Non-Football Bet of the Week (Season Record 2-1)

We nailed it last week with Manchester United over Liverpool, so let’s stick with the Premier League and another big matchup between two of England’s top teams, Chelsea and Arsenal. Chelsea is in first place and has only allowed two goals in five Premier League games so far. Arsenal ha started to score a little more as of late, but started the year off by being shutout by Stoke City and Sunderland. I like Chelsea’s chances to pitch another shutout and snag a late goal, and at +235 I think it’s worth a shot.

Turn On The Jets NFL Week 3 Best Bets

Chris Celletti submits his Best Bets for week 3 of the 2012 NFL Season

Week 2 Record: 2-0-1

Season Record: 3-2-1

For this column’s purposes, I went 2-0-1 last week. I say that because when I actually put my money where my mouth was, by Sunday morning, the Giants’ line vs. the Buccaneers had moved to -7.5. When I wrote my Week 2 piece, it was at -7. We call that a push, you guys. But as always the moral of the story goes: Don’t bet on your crosstown rival. It’s just not worth it. Whenever you need to root for a team you usually loathe, it never ends well. So that was the lesson of Week 2 for me (that and “Always buy the point, ass-clown).” As for my two straight up wins, I still cannot figure out how the Texans were only a seven point fave against a crap Jacksonville team, and I loved the Colts and Andrew Luck getting points in their home opener (FYI: Foreshadowing alert!). As Mike Francesa might so eloquently say when he’s not catatonic: Bink, bink, boom…and now we move to Week 3.

Steelers (-3.5) at Raiders

All of us here at Turn On The Jets got a first hand view at the Steelers last week. With Rashard Mendenhall out, Pittsburgh has finally gotten with the times and become a throwing team. Ben Roehtlisberger has three very good wide receivers who can stretch the field and a dependable tight end, and they look like a team who is going to put up some serious points. Big Ben totally picked apart the Jets’ secondary last week – still a talented group even without Darrelle Revis. Oakland just got their asses handed to them by Miami. Also, “The Black Hole” is the most asinine feature of any sports stadium in the world. Right, because the Steelers – world class, insanely trained professional athletes –  are scared of a bunch of mouth-breathers who treat eight Sundays a year like Halloween. I hope the Raiders go winless at home for a decade.

Colts (-3) vs. Jacksonville

This is a meshing of my Week 2 victories in one: Colts at home vs. the Jaguars. Love it, bro. Consider me on the Andrew Luck train. He’s a soccer fan who can probably name at least 15 out of the 19 MLS teams. Good on you, sir, you have that in common with me and 1% of the American male population. Home teams have been covering at a pretty high clip so far, some of which might have to do with the replacement refs. I’m not backing off my stance with the Jaguars being one of the worst teams in the league. I picked them before the season as under 5.5 wins for the year, and an 0-3 start would get that future bet off to a promising start.

Broncos (+2) vs. Texans

I think this is going to be a really tight game, and I’ll go with the home team getting points. First off, everybody talks about the Houston Texans like they’re God’s gift to football. Yeah, they’re good. They might be really good. They’re not unbeatable. The Broncos have a solid enough defense to keep the game close, and I think we might see a Peyton Manning late-game drive to set up a winning field goal. I see this as a “can go either way” type game.

Bonus Non-Football Bet of the Week (Season Record: 1-1)

I know, last week’s bet that the Milwaukee Brewers would take their series against the LOLMets wasn’t the boldest of calls, but hey, I told you it was free money. And when the Mets took the first game of the series, we were hot water for a second there, folks. For Week 3 we move to the other football, and on Sunday morning before the NFL kicks off we have a classic English Premier League match between Fenway Sports Group’s latest shitshow, Liverpool, against Manchester United. Winning on the road in the Premier League is pretty tough, which is why Man U is +160 on the money line to do so (when you bet on soccer, with the prospect of ties, you get scenarios in which both teams are at “plus” odds like this). Much like the Red Sox, Liverpool is a mess. They’re winless through four Premier League matches and in 17th place. Maybe after Man U goes in and thrashes the poor Reds, John Henry will plant a story in the media that Brendan Rodgers is hooked on painkillers and Steven Gerrard and Pepe Reina are having pre-match Guinnesses and Fish and Chips. There isn’t a team and fanbase in the entire world more deserving of Fenway’s swift buy-and-destroy job than Liverpool. Good riddance.

Turn On The Jets – NFL Week 2 Best Bets

Chris Celletti with his Best Bets for week 2 of the NFL Season

Week 1 Record: 1-2

Season Record: 1-2

I’m actually okay with going just 1-2 last week. It was your typical Week 1 craziness…the Eagles barely beat the Browns, the Saints lost badly at the Superdome, and that team in Green and White put up 48 points against everybody’s preseason darlings. Week 1 is impossible to predict. Now, it’s not like in Week 2 we know exactly what every team is like yet, but at least we have something to work off of other than preseason, which has once again been proven to be a total waste of time and worth almost zero attention.

As I look at the Week 2 schedule, it’s perfect for gambling because there are a lot of crappy games. No one outside of Ohio would voluntarily watch Bengals/Browns. The same can be said for Dolphins/Raiders and Bills/Chiefs unless you’ve been dealt the horrible hand of being a fan of one of those franchises, so naturally, I didn’t choose any of those games in my Week 2 bets. Even money isn’t worth sitting through that crap. — Here is where you will be betting on Top Bet in the NFL

Giants (-7) vs. Buccaneers

Much like the Packers at Lambeau on Thursday, the Giants return home after a tough opening season loss and are not going to fall to 0-2. I have never been a member of the Josh Freeman fan club, and don’t think I ever will be. The Giants’ d-line should be ticked off and will take it out on him. Plus, I really, really don’t want to see Greg Schiano return to New Jersey and score a big win, because Peter King and Harvey Araton will write  a combined 7,559 insufferable words about it on Monday. I don’t want that, and neither does Eli Manning. Giants, big.

Colts (+2) vs. Vikings

Blaine Gabbert threw for 260 yards against the Vikings last week again. Read that sentence again. Now put your money on the Colts and Andrew Luck at home.

Texans (-7) at Jaguars

Is this the halftime line? I know the Jaguars are at home and have a decent enough run defense to  keep the Texans’ running game in check, but how many points can Gabbert and Co. (that sounds like midwestern insurance company or something) score against the Texans? I’m not convinced they can put up 10 points all day and if that’s the case, the Texans only need a solid 20-24 to cover this spread.

Bonus Non-Football Bet Of The Week (Record, 0-1)

Not that anybody watched, but I was wrong about last week’s non-football bonus bet, as Andre Ward totally dismantled Chad Dawson in a 10th round TKO. Andre Ward is a name worth keeping tabs on though, because as Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather start to fade off in the boxing superstar sunset, Ward is the most likely guy to take over the throne.

This week I move to baseball. Is there anything more sure in sports these days than the New York Mets being a total waste of space? This is not exactly bold, but the Brewers are currently at -240 to win the weekend series between the two. Isn’t this free money?