Turn On The Jets Week 11 NFL Picks

The TOJ Staff gives their picks for week 11 of the NFL season

The Race for Steak continues. Note that last week’s record includes the most recent Thursday Night game –

CURRENT STANDINGS

1. Rob Celletti (79-63-5)

2. Chris Gross (75-68-4)

3. Mike Donnelly (74-70-3)

4. Chris Celletti (72-71-4)

5. Joe Caporoso (60-83-4)

Joe Caporoso

Last Week (3-11!) Good Lord!

  • Redskins (-3.5) vs. Eagles
  • Packers (-3.5) vs. Lions
  • Falcons (-9) vs. Cardinals
  • Panthers (+1.5) vs. Bucs
  • Cowboys (-8) vs. Browns
  • Jets (+3.5) vs. Rams
  • Colts (+9) vs. Patriots
  • Jaguars (+14.5) vs. Texans
  • Bengals (-3) vs. Chiefs
  • Saints (-4.5) vs. Raiders
  • Broncos (-7.5) vs. Chargers
  • Ravens (-3) vs. Steelers
  • 49ers (-4.5) vs. Bears

Mike Donnelly

Last Week (4-10) Good Lord! 

  • Eagles +3.5
  • Packers -3
  • Cards +9.5
  • Panthers +1.5
  • Browns +8
  • Jets +3.5
  • Patriots -9
  • Jaguars +14.5
  • Chiefs +3
  • Raiders +4.5
  • Chargers +7.5
  • Steelers +3
  • 49ers -4.5

Rob Celletti

Last Week (10-4)

  • Redskins (-3.5) over Eagles
  • Lions (+3.5) over Packers
  • Falcons (-9) over Cardinals
  • Panthers (+1.5) over Bucs
  • Cowboys (-8) over Browns
  • Rams (-3.5) over Jets
  • Colts (+9) over Patriots
  • Jaguars (+14.5) over Texans
  • Bengals (-3) over Chiefs
  • Saints (-4.5) over Raiders
  • Broncos (-7.5) over Chargers
  • Ravens (-3) over Steelers
  • 49ers (-4.5) over Bears

Chris Celletti

Last Week (11-3)

  • Eagles
  • Packers
  • Falcons
  • Panthers
  • Browns
  • Jets
  • Pats
  • Texans
  • Bengals
  • Saints
  • Broncos
  • Ravens
  • 49ers

Chris Gross

Last Week (9-5)

  • Eagles (+3.5)
  • Packers (-3)
  • Cardinals (+9.5)
  • Panthers (+1.5)
  • Cowboys (-8)
  • Jets (+3.5)
  • Colts (+9)
  • Texans (-14.5)
  • Kansas City (+3)
  • Saints (-4.5)
  • Broncos (-7.5)
  • Ravens (-3)
  • Bears (+4.5)

TOJ Week 11 NFL Picks

TOJ with his week 11 NFL Picks. Who are your best bets?

Last Week: 8-7

Season Record: 75-56-4

TOJ Week 11 Picks (Lines Courtesy of BetUS)

  • Tennessee (+7) vs. Atlanta
  • Miami (-1) vs. Buffalo
  • Baltimore (-7) vs. Cincinnati
  • Jacksonville (+1) vs. Cleveland
  • Minnesota (PK) vs. Oakland
  • Detroit (-7) vs. Carolina
  • Green Bay (-14.5) vs. Tampa Bay
  • Dallas (-7.5) vs. Washington
  • Arizona (+10.5) vs. San Francisco
  • Seattle (+3) vs. St. Louis
  • Chicago (-4.5) vs. San Diego
  • Giants (-6.5) vs. Philadelphia
  • New England (-16) vs. Kansas City

A Vent On The New York Jets Offense

A much needed vent on the New York Jets offense after last night’s performance

Let’s start with something comforting

Despite a recent rough patch of games, Mark Sanchez still is on the exact same pace that Eli Manning was on to start his career and we see how Eli has turned out. Sanchez is not without blame, he is inconsistent, inaccurate and gets jittery in the pocket.

However, I am still of the belief that he has the physical tools and leadership abilities to be the quarterback on a Super Bowl winning team. Everything he has accomplished the past two years doesn’t get swept under the rug. He needs to get better, now…but the potential is there to be a good to very good NFL quarterback.

I haven’t went crazy on the Brian Schottenheimer hate bandwagon but it is now clearer than ever that he needs to be fired at the season’s end, if not immediately. This is a team that has been thoroughly mediocre on offense through six years and four quarterbacks (Chad Pennington, Kellen Clemens, Brett Favre, Mark Sanchez) with Schottenheimer designing and calling plays.

It is time to see if Mark Sanchez can improve in a new system. A system that somewhat resembles a NFL offense.

Right now the Jets offense is completely predictable and limited. I have watched every snap of the Schottenheimer era and I can call out exactly what the Jets are running at least 25-30 times a game depending on the situation, formation, and field position. I am a digital salesperson, who runs a website on the side that played Division 3 football. What do you think people like Bill Belichick can figure out after breaking down Jets game tape?

Maybe this is a slight exaggeration but at the moment it appears the only two pass plays the Jets run are slants and the occasional boot to Dustin Keller that everybody always sees coming for 3 yards. They refuse to push the ball vertically down the field, which allows defenses to sit on the Jets short routes and jump them. I know Mark Sanchez has the ability to complete long passes down the field, I have seen him do it plenty of times. Where are the double moves? Where are the deep posts?

The problems go beyond Schottenheimer and Sanchez, starting with an offensive line that can’t consistently protect and a very average rushing attack.

The Jets need a new right tackle. They need a new backup tight end. They need a tall, vertical threat at receiver. They honestly may need a new primary running back because I am not sold on Shonn Greene yet. When is a runner on this team going to break a 50 yard run? When is somebody going to take a screen pass for 70?

However, first and foremost they need a new offensive coordinator and a complete change of direction. Schottenheimer is going to finish the season out and that is what it is. We can only hope people like Bill Callahan and Tom Moore can bring some type of influence that creates an offense that resembles ones like others in the NFL.

All You Can Do Is Laugh: Jets Pathetic In Primetime

The New York Jets embarrassed themselves yet again…

Well that is about as bad as it gets.

Two embarrassing losses in primetime in the span of four days. Tonight was an absolute doozy. Football is a team game and the Jets are a bad football team at the moment. They are 5-5 and headed in the wrong direction, with no clue as to who they are. I won’t pull a Rex Ryan and declare them dead from the playoffs cause they aren’t, but any realistic person would admit it doesn’t look like we will be seeing them in January this year.

Let’s not delay the inevitable…blame game time –

Mark Sanchez – He was terrible for the second straight game. The pick six was an absolute killer, especially with the type of game this was. If he doesn’t throw that, the Jets roll to a victory tonight. He must be threatening a league record for points directly handed to the other team. There was also continued struggles with game management and absolute no pressing of the football down the field. Nobody defends this guy more than me but the last two games have been major steps back in his development.

Brian Schottenheimer – Answering who the problem is Sanchez or Schottenheimer, is like the chicken or the egg question but Schottenheimer was awful tonight. Defenses sit on the Jets short passing game because they refuse to press the football down the field. I am convinced the only passing plays in their playbook are slants and bootlegs to Dustin Keller for 2 yards.

Offensive Line – Maybe the Jets can’t press the football down the field because they can’t pass protect anymore. Wayne Hunter can’t be a starting tackle in the NFL and Matthew Mulligan can’t play reps in a NFL offense.

Mike Tannenbaum – For cutting Damien Woody and not finding an adequate replacement. For cutting Ben Hartsock and not finding an adequate replacement. For tampering the chemistry of a successful team by parting ways with Jerricho Cotchery, Shaun Ellis, and yes Braylon Edwards who was the team’s only viable deep threat.

Shonn Greene – Needed him to step up with LT being out and he got hurt, showing his durability issues again.

The Entire Defense – They played great all night but choked with the game on the line. I am looking at you Eric Smith for giving up contain on that final play. Antonio Cromartie for playing soft all night. Jim Leonhard for missing a key tackle on the goal-line that started the drive. Calvin Pace for never generating a pass rush. Bart Scott for continuing to have a below average year.

Rex Ryan – We love you big guy, but you were outcoached badly last week and your team wasn’t prepared tonight. You are going to get heat for writing books and promoting movies while coaching a .500 team and you deserve it right now.

New York Jets: Can We Throw This Guy A Pass?

The New York Jets need to get the ball to their playmakers to score points

He isn’t half bad when given the chance.

How about a deep ball…and by deep I mean in the air for over 40 yards to this guy?

What about a screen to him?

If you want points, get the ball to your playmakers…

Jets vs. Broncos: 12 Pack Of Predictions

12 predictions for the Jets/Broncos Thursday night match-up

Rough week for the 12 pack last Sunday, but we are back on the short week…we will keep it short and sweet in honor of that.

1. Over/under on Tebow completions? 10. And I am taking the under.

2. Joe McKnight will get at least 10 offensive touches. Bilal Powell will chip in 5.

3. Shonn Greene will have over 100 yards rushing.

4. Mark Sanchez won’t have any turnovers.

5. Tim Tebow won’t throw any interceptions and but will fumble at least once and be sacked 3-5 times.

6. David Harris will have at least 10 tackles…he better.

7. This will be a one possession game after three quarters.

8. Nick Folk won’t miss any field goals.

9. Eron Riley will record his first reception as a member of the New York Jets.

10. Santonio Holmes will have at least 70 yards receiving.

11. Willis McGahee will end up playing and have at least 12 carries.

12. The Jets will pull away in the fourth quarter, in not the prettiest game of the year, but a game that will ultimately be a win, 24-9.

New York Jets Defense: Simple Questions, Simple Solutions

Justin looks at long term solutions for the New York Jets problems on defense

The New York Jets defense has problems. They’re not dominant against the run and they just got torched against the pass. The upside? They have seven draft picks this year, and while most teams are scrambling in search of quarterbacks, running backs and receivers, the Jets are already in prime position to stack up key positions on their defense.

Safety

The first, and obviously weakest part of the Jets defense is their safety play. Sure Jim Leonhard is smart, instinctive and hard working. He’s also 5’8 and 188 lbs. Matching him up on a tight end is a joke and picturing him taking down the elite running backs in this league is hard to imagine. And who is the other strong safety to back him up? Emmanuel Cook. Like Leonhard, Cook is undrafted, and probably with good reason.

At free safety, the Jets have their jack of all trades in Eric Smith (3rd round pick), and Brodney Pool (2nd round pick/traded from Browns), who has missed crucial time in their schedule with injury. Eric Smith, as this year has shown, should not be a starting safety, as he seems to get beat all over the field in pass coverage. Brodney Pool should be the starter, but missing this much time is not good for a guy who struggled without Leonhard’s guidance last year.

There is an obvious answer to all of this. Draft a safety. Anyone notice the difference a guy like Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu makes? A safety can play against the run, against the pass, blitz, or drop into double coverage. As their cornerback position is secured for the near future, a free roaming safety could provide huge plays in the secondary.

Enter Mark “fear of god” Barron. I made up the nickname, and it is appropriate. Projected as a second round pick, Mark Barron (Alabama) (6’2 215lb) has enough experience in a complex scheme to make an immediate impact at the safety position. Given a full offseason to get acclimated to the Jets scheme, he could be the blitzer who can get to the quarterback and also stop NFL running backs dead in their tracks. If you want proof, just YouTube Mark Barron and look at him against Penn State, and if you are a sadist, look at him put a nice lovetap on Jordan Rogers from Vanderbilt. Barron has already put his stamp on the big hitting Alabama secondary, which is currently giving up 7.1 points per game. Again, 7.1 points per game.

Linebacker

At outside linebacker, the Jets are in flux. Aaron Maybin is slowly evolving into their edge rusher, Calvin Pace is up and down but getting old, and Bryan Thomas is on injured reserve and simultaneously getting old. Jamaal Westerman being a legit pass rusher is not a realistic goal, but a good sub package rotation and Garrett McIntyre is simply filling space on the roster.

At inside linebacker, David Harris is the stud, Bart Scott is the aging complement and the Josh Mauga/Nick Bellore combination is the fallback in case of injury.

Dare I look at another Alabama defensive player? I dare indeed. Courtney Upshaw. He’s not the biggest, he’s not the fastest, but he is ferocious, and probably stronger than most of the tight ends that are going to try and block him in the NFL. He’s a first round pick and will probably be gone by the time the Jets get their number called, but if the Jets don’t make the playoffs,(no one wants that) they can swoop in with relative ease and snatch him somewhere in the middle of the first. You want a pass rusher? Look up Capital One Bowl highlights from last year. Be patient as most of it is Alabama scoring touchdowns, but there are a few great blind side sacks. In a game where Alabama scored 49 points, Upshaw was the MVP. Look up this year’s highlights if you want something in high definition.

If you put his hand down he beats your tackle, if you stand him up he runs over your running back or comes straight up against your quarterback. He also happens to be coached by the best defensive mind in college football. A transition to the Jets shouldn’t be too difficult.
So let’s say he is taken before the Jets can grab him. Then you’ve got this guy Dont’a Hightower, who unlike Upshaw usually lines up inside and knocks opposing guards about six feet off their block. He’s about as heavy as Upshaw and two inches taller.

Defensive Line

The Jets defensive line, like their linebacking core, is in flux. At nose tackle, Kenrick Ellis will hopefully at some point get into football shape and get healthy enough to take over the starting spot by next year. Sione Pouha, a guy who was always intended to be the complement to Kris Jenkins, has held up surprisingly well as a starting nose tackle. Martin Tevaseu is simply taking up space and is only active in case of injury to guys at defensive end.

At defensive end, Muhammad Wilkerson is taking the place of Trevor Pryce. Mike Devito will start at the opposite end of Wilkerson next year, while Ropati Pitoitua is most likely going to substitute for both guys or drop in on nickel and dime packages

Will the Jets become bold and go with defensive line again? Hopefully they will, for the sheer fact that they currently have no Pro Bowlers on their defensive line, and they can’t generate pressure without giving something up over the middle or the short screen.

Postscript

Is getting two Alabama players as your top two draft picks realistic? No. Is getting one? Yes. Though I have nothing against small school defensive players, guys that play on the Alabama defense are operating on another level. They read, react, and rush with the ferocity that teams like the Ravens, Steelers and Jets have come to make their trademark. Some people watch college football for the beauty of touchdowns, I watch it for the beauty of the Alabama defense. And beautiful it is.

Unnecessary Hype – Darrelle Revis and Tim Tebow

TOJ on the comical double standard Jets players are treated with by the media

These were the quotes Darrelle Revis had about Tim Tebow and Denver’s offense.

On if the option offense could have sustained success – “Yeah, if you have Michael Vick and Chris Johnson at running back. Yeah, it can work. Those are probably the two fastest guys that can get out on the edge.

On if Tebow could have sustained success with it – “No. Not for a whole season,” Revis said. “We know what they’re doing. And we feel comfortable in our game plan.”

On defending it in the secondary – “The biggest thing for the secondary is for us not to fall asleep,” Revis said. “It can get boring, especially if a team keeps on just running the ball, series after series, play after play.”

And so the headlines fly…

Revis disrespects Tebow!

Revis thinks Tebow is boring!

Revis doubts Tebow!

And the criticism for the big, bad mean Jets running their mouths again starts up. Who does Darrelle Revis think he is, to make that kind of judgement? I don’t know…maybe the best defensive player in football? Shame on him!

Did I miss something?

Where was the passionate criticism of the Detroit Lions after this article came out? How about this quote from the article —

“Come on – that’s embarrassing. I mean, it’s a joke. We knew all week that if we brought any kind of defensive pressure, he couldn’t do anything. In the second half it got boring out there. We were like, ‘Come on – that’s your quarterback? Seriously?’

Where was the hate for the anonymous Detroit Lions player? Oh that’s right. He was anonymous. He was a coward and couldn’t stand behind his words. In the hush-hush, anonymous quote, fake your injury report, say nothing world of the NFL, the Jets actually speak their mind and put their names behind their quotes. And unless you are Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, or Green Bay you haven’t had more success than them the past two years, so you should have nothing to say on their style.

In the same article, Cliff Avril was quoted ripping Tebow. There was no ongoing dialogue about him saying Tebow make “crazy decisions.” There was no criticism for Lions players mocking Tebow’s patented celebration. Could you imagine the reaction if Darrelle Revis picked one off from him and did that? Mike Francesa and Mike Florio’s head might explode. Of course, it was all in good fun when Stephen Tulloch and Tony Scheffler did it.

What did Revis even say, that Mike Vick is faster than Tim Tebow? Guess what, he is. That defending the option from a cornerback positon is boring? Guess what, it is. Any cornerback at any level of football would tell you that.

Revis is the best corner in the NFL and probably the best defensive player in football this year, he can say what he wants about an unproven quarterback, especially if what he says is nowhere near being out of line.

Sanchez/Tebow: Two Unconventional Winners Share Scrutiny

TJ puts the spotlight on the lack of respect for Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow, despite their ability to win

For Mark Sanchez, two AFC championship games in his first two years as a pro hasn’t been enough to silence his doubters. Tim Tebow took over a 1-4 Broncos team that is now 4-5 under his leadership. Instead of admiring Denver’s re-entry back into the AFC West race since Tebow got behind center, detractors question his ability to throw the football. When the Jets and Broncos take the field Thursday night, you can guarantee that experts and fans will be grading each and every play made by two guys who win, but are expected to do alot more. Two young players who continue to be judged not by their club’s record with them at the helm, but through the lens of how they stack up against the NFL’s elite.

Mark Sanchez never got to sit and observe like top gun Aaron Rodgers did in Green Bay under Brett Favre. The league’s best passer in HIS first three years in the NFL didn’t start one single game. Sanchez? His big league learning, after just one year of major college football at USC (which included a Rose Bowl win), has happened ON the field. Not from the sidelines. While having to face a ruthless New York media simultaneously through the growing pains.

When Sanchez leads the Jets onto the field for the 41st time in his two and a half year career, he’ll be doing so with the jury still out on his ability to lead the Jets past the point of an AFC title game appearance.

Those who feel as though Sanchez threatens the Jets chances of going any further, will point to his lack of confidence in throwing the deep ball, as well as his in game emotional swings, and ill timed interceptions .

Sanchez apologist’s will combat that analysis with the fact that he has led game winning drives in 20 percent of the games he has started in New York. This includes the playoffs, where he has led the Jets twice in second half comeback victories (San Diego, 2009, Indianapolis 2010) in going 4-2. With all postseason games having been played by Sanchez and the Jets on the road during that time.

Tebow has been a savior to some, and a pariah to others. Those who don’t see Tebow lasting over the long haul, target his mechanics, and resulting lack of accuracy (44.8 completion pct), with a desire to run first rather than throw. A collegiate trait for a QB, in the eyes of many pro experts.

Tebow threw a paltry eight passes in the win against divisional rivals Kansas City on Sunday. Two were completed. His best day in the air saw him throw for just 172 yards. Despite plenty of garbage time in order to acquire more during a 45-10 loss to Detroit.

When he rushes the ball however, the once two time first team All American, Heisman Trophy winning, National champion Tebow is 48-320 yds (6.0 avg) with two TD’s. Broncos coach John Fox has taken notice, adding the scholastic option formation into the offense for the former Florida Gator legend. Maybe it hasn’t been pretty, but its worked out in the win column for Fox and co.

A late Bronco comeback in Miami (they trailed 15-0 in the waning moments and won in OT), followed by one against their hated enemy the Raiders, has the Broncos now one game out of first place. Like Sanchez though, the wins haven’t been enough to afford Tebow any blind acceptance.

Both Sanchez and Tebow also suffer from long shadows cast over them around their respective homes. After all, in Denver, there was once the great two time Super Bowl champion Hall of Famer, John Elway. The face of Denver’s franchise and perfect drop back passer, who now sits above in the director’s chair. As the Broncos Executive VP of football operations.

In the Big Apple, the shadow that engulfs Sanchez starts not from above, but from the North. Where the great Tom Brady lives. The Patriots three time champion sits inside of the same division that Sanchez has tried to grab from Brady and master general Bill Belichick. Who thanks to his signal caller and disciplined no named army, have now obtained enough hardware to be considered as one of the great dynasties in the sport.

Brady is a constant source of the  ”compare and contrast” talk, which makes it hard for Sanchez to ever come out on top of many arguments. As Brady spreads it around for scores to Welker, Gronkowski, Hernandez and the rest, you can just hear that Jets fan in the bar saying “Sanchez will never do that.” It is true. He may never do that. Sanchez though, IS 3-4 against Brady so far. 1-0 against him in the playoffs.

With both teams currently in second place, Sanchez and Tebow can ill afford to lose on Thursday night. The winner may not be included in the group of key reasons for the victory. The loser, most likely tagged with a lion’s share of the blame for the loss. Facing a scrutiny that not only comes with falling short, but doing so with an unorthodox style, and pedestrian stat line as well.

New York Jets Relying On Backups In Denver

Many of the New York Jets backups will play a more prominent role than usual tomorrow night

You aren’t going to be at full strength for all of your games in a NFL season. Not surprisingly on a quick turnaround against the Denver Broncos, a handful of backup players will be seeing an increase of reps to compensate for a few minor injuries.

At running back, special teams ace Joe McKnight should finally see extended action due to LaDainian Tomlinson missing the game with a sprained MCL. It will be nice to see McKnight get to catch a few screens in space and receive the primary third down responsibilities. He projects as the team’s long term third down back so this is a big opportunity for him. Also at running back rookie Bilal Powell should be active for the first time and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a few handoffs, as the team will likely want a look at him when something is actually on the line.

Over at wide receiver, Jeremy Kerley and Patrick Turner will likely be game-time decisions. There is a very good chance recently signed WR Eron Riley will get to see some action against his former team. Here is what Jon Heath from www.BroncoTalk.net had to say on Riley –

Riley, 6-3, 207 pounds, is a second year player out of Duke that went undrafted in 2009.  He has loads of potential and a sick vertical leap, which compliments his impressive speed and reliable hands. I was really hoping the Broncos would activate him to the active roster because I knew somebody would sign him off Denver’s practice squad if he stayed there too long. In the preseason, Riley led the Broncos in catches (6), yards (187) and receiving touchdowns (2).

Finally on defense, Rich Cimini noted that rookie OLB Garret McIntyre was playing outside linebacker in the Jets base 3-4 defense against New England. Obviously they didn’t spend much time in their base package against the Patriots but they will be on Thursday night. Look for a ton of reps from McIntyre.

I also wouldn’t be surprised if TE Shawn Nelson was active for the first time and taking some reps from Matthew Mulligan (maybe that is just wishful thinking from me). Also if Eric Smith continues to struggle, doesn’t Emmanuel Cook deserve a look with Brodney Pool still nursing an injury?