Turn On The Jets Film Breakdown – Jets vs. Bills

Turn On The Jets breaks down the game tape from Jets/Bills, answering your questions and giving other observations

Every week in this column we will break down the offensive game tape, both offering our observations and answering your questions submitted on Twitter. Tomorrow, our resident defensive lineman, Chris Gross, will provide a film breakdown of the other side of the ball. Thank you to everybody who sent in this week’s questions, which were aggregated into the following as many were on the same topic – 

1. How effective was Mark Sanchez at going through his progressions and making the proper reads?

The short answer is very effective and this question led me to spend most of my time breaking down the Jets passing game, which was without question the biggest surprise of the week. Tony Sparano and Mark Sanchez both did a terrific job with a game plan that was built to feature Stephen Hill, Jeremy Kerley and Jeff Cumberland while using Santonio Holmes and Dustin Keller primarily as decoys.

The first two pass plays were designed for Stephen Hill who was open on both and caught the second one on a crucial early third down. The third play was for Cumberland who was also wide open and moved the chains on a 13 yard gain. After that completion, Sanchez alternated making poor decisions/throws with terrific ones before settling down and playing a great overall game.

First, came the interception which occurred because Buffalo quickly took away his first and second read. Simply put, he should have ran out of bounds for a 3 yard gain or threw it away, as he did later in the game when the Jets tried a similar play that was defended well. He then followed up with a beautiful strike to Jeremy Kerley on a third down, where he was the first read and beat his guy immediately. Sanchez then missed a cover 2 hole shot to Holmes that could have been a touchdown, although Holmes could have got a cleaner release to help him out. Sanchez was then bailed out when he went to Hill on a 3rd and 5 and he drew pass interference, when he should have went to Holmes on a deeper out behind Hill.

Keep this play in mind because Sanchez learned from his mistake later in the game. The following pass was the Jeremy Kerley touchdown which was a well designed play by Sparano. It was meant to look like a wide receiver screen to Santonio Holmes. As Holmes works back to the ball, Kerley appears to be going to block the corner causing a slight hesitation from the man who is covering him, he then jets to the back of the end-zone and Sanchez delivered a perfectly thrown pass.

Sanchez was pretty locked in for the rest of the game from this point. He hit Holmes in a tight window to convert a third down, the Stephen Hill touchdown on his double move was an easy read and a good throw. Throughout the rest of the game, he made only three throws that weren’t on point. First he slightly overthrew Jeremy Kerley on a quick out, which was caught but forced him to extend and stumble, ending up short of the first down. Second, he just missed Holmes on a quick post, although you could argue Holmes should have made the catch. Finally, he again missed the hole shot to Holmes at the end of the half which was nearly a touchdown. This is a tough throw and they nearly executed it but missed by about an inch.

One particular play later in the game that was encouraging from Sanchez was a 3rd and 9, when instead of throwing it immediately to an open Dustin Keller in the flat (a play he absolutely would have made last year), he was patient and waited for his primary option, Jeff Cumberland (who is on the 20 yard line in this screen shot), to run his 9 yard hook route before delivering a spot on pass to convert a third down.

Finally, remember the Kerley touchdown? Tony Sparano smartly came back to the wide receiver screen to Holmes, knowing that the defense would be hesitant to jump it after getting beat earlier in the game. This was executed to perfection, thanks to a great block from Dustin Keller and went for a 17 yard gain.

A few final observations on passing game – It was striking just how often Hill, Kerley or Cumberland were the first read on passing plays. It showed immense confidence in three unproven players and all three answered the bell. The plan worked well because Buffalo was keying on Holmes and Keller, which helped get the three of them consistently open. Ironically enough it appeared the receiver Sanchez had the least chemistry with was Holmes. They just missed on three completions that all could have been big gains (two of which should have been touchdowns). If they get rolling on the same page, the Jets passing offense could be that much more effective.

2. Austin Howard/Mario Williams

Howard’s game was as good as advertised. He spend the majority of the dropbacks singled up on Mario Williams and consistently stonewalled his pass rush. Williams continually tried to bull rush him and use his power but could not get through, which gave Sanchez time to go through all the progressions outlined above. Howard showed surprising quickness and the times WIlliams looked to adjust to more of a speed rush he looked a step slow. His complaints about illegal hands to the face certainly didn’t show on the film as there were not blatant penalties missed by the officials on Howard.

3. Shonn Greene

Shonn Greene did finish with 94 yards, unfortunately it took him 27 carries to get there. Yes, there were times Greene ran very well in-between the tackles and he pushed the pile. However, the Jets need another option when running to the edge. This play below serves as a perfect example of why Greene needs a complimentary speed back with him. This play only went for 6 yards and look how well it is blocked up. Greene, again inexplicably stumbles when he receives the handoff, a recurring problem for him.

After the stumble, he gets temporarily held up behind the line here yet still there is space for a run that should net more than 6 yards. However, he simply doesn’t have enough burst to hit the seam. This is why the Jets may need to consider giving more outside handoffs to both Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight.

Check back tomorrow for Chris Gross’ film breakdown of the defense, primarily focusing on the defensive line. 

Turn On The Jets Stock Watch – Jets/Bills Recap Edition

Mike Donnelly’s weekly Stock Watch is buying and selling after the New York Jets thrashed the Buffalo Bills in week 1

You probably didn’t hear all that much about the Jets the past two days from the national media. Well, at least not as much as you did the previous four weeks anyway. Funny how that works, huh? After weeks and weeks of the media portraying the Jets as an absolute joke and pundits everywhere seemingly taking great joy in taking shots at them, the Jets went out and absolutely slaughtered the Buffalo Bills in the first game of the season that actually counted. Yep, that’s right, believe it or not those 4 preseason games actually didn’t mean crap, and the Jets not scoring a touchdown meant even less than that. When the lights came on, the Jets dropped a 48-spot on everyone’s sleeper darling team, the Buffalo Bills. It felt good. It felt damn good. Let’s break down what we saw..

BUY: Mark Sanchez – I hate to say “I told ya so”, but… Ok, I’m not going to get too carried away just yet, but that was as good as we’ve ever seen the Sanchize look. He had time in the pocket, he looked poised and confident, and he showed a newfound zip on his passes down the field. It’s amazing what a quarterback can accomplish with a legit deep threat (Hill), competent blocking on the right side (Howard + a game plan using chip blocks), and most importantly not having Brian Schottenheimer holding him back. I’m sure it was just a coincidence that in the first game without Schotty, Sanchez had arguably the best game of his career, right? Speaking of which..

BUY: Coaching Staff – This goes to all of the coaches, from top to bottom. Rex Ryan obviously used the media’s negative portrayal of the team to motivate them and lead them into the Great Buffalo Massacre of 2012. Plus, he –along with Mike Pettine– showed he can actually coach a little football and put together a defensive game plan that absolutely shut down Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills spread attack. On the other side of the ball, watching the offensive play-calling and play design was a thing of beauty. All offseason I couldn’t say enough how much better the offense would be simply by getting rid of the black sheep of the Schottenheimer family, and the early results look promising. It had been so long, I forgot that an offense could actually stick with the run throughout an entire game; I didn’t realize you could exploit mismatches on defense and attack them; I didn’t know you could throw a pass beyond 6 yards. Week 1 was an eye-opening performance by the coaching staff. By the way, I haven’t heard many “Schotty must be laughing in St. Louis!” jokes that everyone seemed to love throughout the pre-season. I wonder why?

BUY: The Wide Receivers – Santonio Holmes was mostly double-teamed throughout the game and didn’t put up big numbers, but he clearly impacted the game just by being out there. Stephen Hill, on the other hand, did put up eye-opening numbers, scoring two TD’s in his NFL debut and getting himself open repeatedly. Jeremy Kerley also chipped in 4 catches, a TD (plus a punt return TD), and put his rough pre-season beyond him. Chaz Schilens even shocked the world by not only walking onto the field without pulling his hamstring AND making a catch. What a day!

BUY: Shonn Greene Carrying the Load – Shonn Greene was handed the ball 27 times and showed he could handle the load, which is extremely important for this Jets team. He ran hard throughout the game, didn’t tire, and was breaking tackles well into the 4th quarter which is exactly what we want to see. He’s never going to be a game-breaking threat but combined with Tebow’s wildcat, he can really be a factor in Sparano’s clock control offense. That being said..

SELL: Shonn Greene’s fumbles – Greene put the ball on the ground twice on Sunday, including once at the goalline and that is absolutely unacceptable. I’m as staunch a Greene defender as anyone, and I was generally encouraged by his performance, but he can NOT be doing that. Also..

SELL: The Run Blocking – Generally the run blocking was pretty solid on Sunday, but this team still needs a Tight End who can block. Cumberland and Reuland aren’t going to cut it, and when Jason Smith comes in for that role, it kind of tips their hand as to what is going to be run.

BUY: The Secondary – A dominant performance by the defense was marred slightly by an apparent concussion for Darrelle Revis. If the Jets are going to win in Pittsburgh, we’re going to need to see a healthy #24 out there to eliminate Antonio Brown from the Steelers offense. Against the Bills, we saw Revis, Cromartie, and Wilson manhandle the Bills receivers. We saw the new safeties, Laron Landry and Yeremiah Bell make big hits and actually make some plays. It was nice to see a Jets safety out there not just trailing a tight end by 5 yards while hopelessly diving for a tackle. We’re going to need a solid performance from these guys next week against a Pittsburgh team that likes to throw to Heath Miller down the middle of the field.

SELL: Depth on Defense – Perhaps this is nitpicking a little bit, but when the Jets started making some defensive substitutions late in the game, it got really brutal out there. Ellis Lankster can be a nice 4th corner, but when he was forced into a larger role he got picked apart. Isaiah Trufant should never be on the field for defense. Garrett McIntyre came in for an injured Bryan Thomas and the drop off was noticeable. Even Kenrick Ellis, who had a great preseason left a lot to be desired as Sione Po’uha’s replacement. We are going to need to see a healthy Sione this week against Pittsburgh and their crap offensive line.

SELL: The media – I wonder how some of these morons were able to recap the game on Sunday with a giant foot sticking out of their mouths. What a major disappointment Sunday had to be for the media hacks who had the Jets dead and buried before a single play that actually counted took place. I feel really bad that they had to file away their pre-written “clown” jokes since they weren’t able to use them. What a major disappointment. And did I take great joy in reminding everyone that the real “clowns” were people like Evan Silva, who called for the Jets to score a mere 6 points this week? Yes, yes I did. It was just one game and we can’t get too carried away because there’s a long way to go, but what a game it was. I have a feeling there are going to be plenty more like it.

Turn On The Jets Week 1 Roundtable: Jets/Bills Prediction

The Turn On The Jets staff gives their predictions for Jets/Bills

The TOJ Staff gives their predictions for the New York Jets regular season opener against the Buffalo Bills. Make sure to give everybody a follow on Twitter

Joe Caporoso – 12 Pack

Chris Gross – Jets 19 Bills 10 – Don’t expect this game to be very pretty in terms of offensive fire power. Each of these teams are built on defense and running the ball. The Jets play their first real game in the brand new offensive system of Tony Sparano, while Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills take on a New York defense that seems poised to rank in the top three in the league. The Jets offense will struggle to score touchdowns until it fully gels within the new system, but stellar defensive and special teams play will allow them to win the field position battle and accumulate points through field goals, with a touchdown sprinkled in. Expect either a “TebowCat” TD run from inside the ten, or a play action pass from Sanchez to Keller.

Mike Donnelly – Ahh, the Buffalo Bills. There’s not a team I’d rather see the Jets opening against. After months and months of hearing about how wonderful Buffalo is going to be this year on both sides of the ball, while the Jets are expected to show up in their clown car and just throw in the towel, we get to see both teams actually prove it on the field. WIth or without Sione Po’uha, the Jets defense is going to smother the Bills. You know damn well Rex Ryan has a few special wrinkles saved up for Chan Gailey this week, and I don’t expect Ryan Fitzpatrick to be able to handle them. The Jets offense is NOT as bad as they’ve shown this preseason, and now that the games count you better believe they’re going to open up the playbook and actually, you know, score a touchdown. They’ll do just enough on offense and unleash the hounds on poor Fitzpatrick on defense as the game slowly turns into a rout, something like 27-10. Oh, and expect this guy who wears #24 for the Jets to put all the “Stevie Johnson owns Revis” garbage to rest, once and for all. My official prediction? I’ll let Clubber Lang handle this one –

TJ Rosenthal – Jets win 23-17 if: The Front four remains as physical and quick off the bell as they were against Carolina weeks back. This will allow the  Jets to make the Bills duo of Jackson and Spiller unable to dictate terms. Sanchez will be efficient in this scenario while finding a way to make the big strike at some point. Tebow will move the chains and bring energy to Met Life with a few scintillating runs. Jets lose 27-13 if: The offense looks the way it did all preseason, tiring out a Jets D that had good intentions, but couldn’t rest properly. Eventually caving in after halftime.

Chris Celletti – This game is going to be absolutely excruciating for Jets fans. Not because I think they’ll lose, as you’ll see, but it’s not going to be pretty at all. I still don’t have a ton of confidence in this Jets’ offense. I expect Mark Sanchez to make some really nice throws, hit a few intermediate plays and try some deep throws, but I don’t expect a huge statistical output and I’d be shocked if he doesn’t throw a pick (and at what point that pick comes and the context of it is going to determine the circus factor in MetLife). Tim Tebow and the Wildcat will prove to be efficient, but since the Jets’ offensive line struggled in the preseason on standard running plays, I don’t see them opening up huge holes for Tebow to make a big play. I think both offenses will struggle, especially the Bills as I think the Jets’ D has a big day. The Jets do find a way to score a few touchdowns in a defense/field position battle, and the panic button goes away for at least a week. Jets 20, Bills 16

Rob Celletti– It’s not surprising that of the 16 games on the NFL Week 1 slate, Jets/Bills has the lowest over/under number (39, half a point lower than what promises to be an unwatchable clash between Minnesota and Jacksonville), and still, I’d take the under. It’s not going to be pretty, folks.  The Jets will run the ball, and they’ll punt.  Sanchez will take some sacks, and they’ll punt.  But the defense will not only hold, but dominate, and the Jets offense will find a rhythm at some point.  Look for the offense to score points when they start with a short field, via turnovers or an explosive special teams play.  Mark Sanchez will get this team into the endzone twice, and the Jets will win the game 20-13.  The statistics won’t be pretty, but 1-0 will be

Turn On The Jets Week 1 NFL Picks

The TOJ Staff submits their picks for week 1 of the NFL…the race for steak begins

The Turn On The Jets staff will be submitting their picks against the spread on a weekly basis. We will be tracking our weekly records so you know where to turn for your gambling advice. At the end of the season our staff will be gathering for a meal at Peter Lugers in Brooklyn, with the overall winner receiving a free meal. Let the race for steak begin! #RaceForSteak –

Joe Caporoso

Season Record: 0-1

  • Bears (-10) over Colts
  • Eagles (-9.5) over Browns
  • Jets (-3) over Bills
  • Saints (-8.5) over Redskins
  • Patriots (-5) over Titans
  • Jaguars (+3.5) over Vikings
  • Texans (-11.5) over Dolphins
  • Lions (-8.5) over Rams
  • Falcons (-3) over Chiefs
  • Packers (-5) over 49ers
  • Panthers (-3) over Bucs
  • Seahawks (-3) over Cardinals
  • Steelers (+1.5) over Broncos
  • Bengals (+6.5) over Ravens
  • Raiders (-1.5) over Chargers

Rob Celletti

Season Record: 1-0

  • Colts (+10) over Bears
  • Eagles (-9.5) over Browns
  • Jets (-3) over Bills
  • Saints (-8.5) over Redskins
  • Patriots (-5) over Titans
  • Vikings (-3.5) over Jaguars
  • Texans (-11.5) over Dolphins
  • Lions (-8.5) over Rams
  • Chiefs (+3) over Falcons
  • Packers (-5) over 49ers
  • Panthers (-3) over Buccaneers
  • Cardinals (+3) over Seahawks
  • Steelers (+1.5) over Broncos
  • Bengals (+6.5) over Ravens
  • Chargers (+1.5) over Raiders
Season Record: 0-1
  • Colts (+9.5)
  • Eagles (-9.5)
  • Jets (-3)
  • Saints (-8)
  • Patriots (-5.5)
  • Jaguars (+3.5)
  • Houston (-11.5)
  • Lions (-8)
  • Chiefs (+3)
  • 49ers (+5)
  • Panthers (-3)
  • Seahawks (-3)
  • Steelers (+1.5)
  • Ravens (-6.5)
  • Chargers (+1.5)

Season Record: 0-1

  • Chicago (-10) vs. Indianapolis
  • Philadelphia (-9.5) at Cleveland
  • Jets (-3) vs.Buffalo
  • New Orleans (-8.5) vs. Washington
  • New England (-5) at Tennessee
  • Jacksonville (+3.5) at Minnesota
  • Miami (+11.5) at Houston
  • Detroit (-8.5) vs. St. Louis
  • Kansas City (+3) vs. Atlanta
  • 49ers (+5) at Green Bay
  • Tampa Bay (+3) vs. Carolina
  • Seattle (-3) vs. Arizona
  • Pittsburgh (+1.5) at Denver
  • Cincinnati (+6.5) at Baltimore
  • San Diego (+1.5) at Oakland

Mike Donnelly 

Season Record: 0-1

  • Colts +10
  • Browns +9.5
  • Jets -3
  • Saints -8.5
  • Titans +4
  • Minnesota -3.5
  • Houston -11.5
  • St. Louis +8.5
  • KC +3
  • Packers -5
  • Bucs +3
  • Cards +3
  • Broncos -1.5
  • Ravens -6.5
  • Raiders -1.5

NFL Week 1 Bets: The Opening Week Crapshoot

Chris Celletti submits his best bets for week 1 of the NFL season

Oh brother, here we go.

It’s Week 1 of the NFL season, and nobody knows what the hell will happen, which makes gambling on the league this week all sorts of frustrating and fun at the same time. You’re just as likely to hit something that seemed like a reach than you are to miss on a perceived no-brainer. Betting on NFL games is a total toss up to begin with, but it’s even crazier in the opening weeks before teams settle into their own. In that way, Week 1 is a bit like the opening round of the NCAA tournament.

Even if you’re talking about games without a point spread*, Week 1 is tough to forecast. Yeah, it might sound crazy unlikely, but would anyone be completely and utterly shocked if the Browns beat the Eagles on Sunday? I mean, sure, the Eagles are a better team and will probably win, but they’re still coached by Andy Reid…which makes any scenario possible. Every Week 1 sees one team who was supposed to be a Super Bowl contender start off with an epic crapfest, so why can’t that be the Eagles this week? Or the Patriots? Or the Saints? It will happen to someone.

*Sorry for the Grantlandish footnote-y thing here, but I have a quick aside: I hear a lot of people complain about the various NFL pregame shows picking games without the spread. And it’s not just idiot fans too, it’s radio hosts like Joe Beningo who are like “Bro, BRO… come on, how easy is it to pick games without a spread?!” when talking about the NFL Today or Fox’s pregame show or whatever. This is one of the most mindless complaints ever. You know why Bill Cowher doesn’t make his picks against the spread? Because actual, real life NFL football is NOT played with a point spread! Football analysts are there to break down actual, in between the lines football.  When the Jets take the field on Sunday against the Bills, the game will NOT kick off with the Bills already up 3-0 (and thank the lord for that). So go on Dan Marino, Keyshawn Johnson and Terry Bradshaw and make your non-spread picks. I have no problem with it. Plus, join a survivor pool and see how easy it is to pick games without a spread.

On that note, here are my three picks for the week, of course, against the spread.

Lions -8.5 vs. Rams – I’ve seen this line at -7.5 or even -7 in some other places, but either way I’ll take the Lions. Now, I don’t have a ton of confidence in the Lions overall this year, because if there’s any franchise that can screw up the momentum of last year and a good young quarterback with a can’t-miss wide receiver, its the Detroit Lions. But for this week, I like them at home against the Rams for one main reason; Brian Schottenheimer. Yes, our great old buddy from the Jets’ sidelines is running the Rams’ offense this season. And he actually has less offensive talent on this squad than he ever had with the Jets, and we saw how dynamic Gang Green’s offense was under his guidance this past half decade. Add in the fact that this offense employs the likes of Wayne Hunter and Matthew Mulligan, I mean, how in the hell are the Rams going to stay within 10 points of a team that threw for 5,000 yards last year in their building? Not happening.

Patriots -5 at Tennessee

Five points? That’s it? You’re telling me the  Patriots won’t beat the Titans by a touchdown? Believe me, just like every other writer on this site I’m rooting for Tennessee, but I’m not holding my breath. Too much Tom Brady, who will have a killer day throwing to his new toy Brandon Lloyd on the outside and to Vinny and Ronnie Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski down the seams. The Patriots D isn’t great but I think they’ll be ahead enough early to render Chris Johnson useless.

Chiefs +3 vs. Falcons

The Falcons are one of those teams I talked about above, one that has big expectations coming into the season and could fall flat on its face in Week 1. I don’t like the Falcons outdoors, on the road in a hostile situation against a solid defense. Here are Matt Ryan’s QB ratings the past four season while playing outdoors: 94.2 (the outlier), 76.2, 80.3, and 79.1. His numbers are even worse on grass. I like the Chiefs in an upset outright, so I’ll gladly take the three points.

Bonus Non-Football Bets of The Weekend: Did you know two of the top pound-for-pound boxers in the world, in their primes, are fighting each other on Saturday for free on HBO? No! No you didn’t know, because you have no idea who Andre Ward or Chad Dawson are, even though you’re clearly a sports fan if you’re on this site. That’s how horridly boring these two are outside of the ring (and sometimes inside the ring too). Ward is the world’s best Super Middleweight (168 pounds) while Dawson is the best at 175, and the fight will be for Ward’s WBC and ring belts. Dawson isn’t a huge puncher, so going down in weight shouldn’t hinder him too much. With a six and half inch reach advantage and a two inch height advantage, I like Dawson  in a pretty big upset at +265.

Turn On The Jets Week 1 Fantasy Football Preview

Mike Donnelly previews week 1 from a fantasy football perpsective

Week One of the NFL is here and with that comes Fantasy Football (YESSS!!!). I’m sure most –if not all– of you are in at least one fantasy league and are starting to get excited about your week 1 matchup, praying for a win so you get to talk an endless amount of trash for a whole week about your glorious victory. There’s also a good chance you’ve spent a few hours this week staring at your computer screen and agonizing over which player you want to start at your flex spot, or which of your two QB’s is a better start. Well for those people, I’m here to help. I’m not going to waste our time by telling you to start Aaron Rodgers or Calvin Johnson, because if you need that, you should go find the nearest toilet and flush your league entrance fee straight down it.

Oh, and if you’re in a league playing against me and looking for some advice, I suggest you all go read Evan Silva’s rankings. I could use a few easy wins. Thanks! Alright, let’s get on with the show.

Things are Looking Up For You If You’ve Got…

QB: Matt Ryan @ KC – I’ve seen Ryan consistently ranked in the top 7 or 8 for week 1, so you should be starting him no matter what. But I think there’s a good chance he finishes this week in the top 4 or 5 as Atlanta unveils their new pass-happy, up-tempo offense against a KC defense that is pretty stout against the run.

QB: Robert Griffin III @ NO – I’d rather start RG3 over guys like Matt Schaub, Big Ben, or Jay Cutler this week. It’s not because I fawn over him as a player like everyone else or think he’ll beat the Saints, though. It’s strictly because the Saints are going to score a ton and there’s a great chance RG3 will rack up some late meaningless stats, which are the best kind!

QB: Jake Locker vs. NE – Locker is one of my sleepers for this season and I expect big things from him as a #2 fantasy QB and bye week fill-in. I’m not placing him here to toot my own horn or anything like that, but strictly because of the Patriots high school calibre defense. If you’re in a deep league, you can do much worse than Jake.

RB: Shonn Greene vs. Buff – I love Shonn Greene this year, as you’ve seen me state numerous times now, and he’s gonna kick off a solid season by shredding Buffalo’s still bad defense.

RB: Doug Martin vs. Car – Martin is the clear centerpiece of new coach Greg Schiano’s offense. Look for him to get the ball early and often against a pretty awful Panthers run D.

RB: Stevan Ridley @ Tenn – Another one of my favorites heading into this season is Stevan Ridley. To me, he’s just a far more talented version of Green-Ellis and I think 1,000 yards and 10 TD’s is a good possibility. This week, Shane Vereen is out and if the Pats get ahead, look for Belichick to test out his new bellcow.

WR: Brandon Marshall vs Ind – To be clear, you should never bench Brandon Marshall. But look for him to perform as a top 5 WR this week against an Indy defense that is still a work in progress.

WR: Percy Harvin vs. Jax – Am I listing Marshall and Harvin because I have them both in my main money league? Yes. But Harvin was a monster the last 8 weeks of last season and with Adrian Peterson still hurt, Harvin is the main man for Minnesota.

WR: Antonio Brown @ Denv – I love Antonio Brown this year. Mike Wallace is very boom or bust and likely to be squaring off with Champ Bailey, while Brown is going to be the one consistently racking up catches.

WR: Justin Blackmon @ Minn – I think Justin Blackmon is going to be really great. Look for him to announce his arrival against a porous Vikings secondary, even though Blaine Gabbert will be throwing to him.

TE: Aaron Hernandez @ Tenn – I think there’s a good chance Hernandez will lead the Pats in receiving yards this season. Look for him to routinely make big plays down the middle of the field this week as the Titans key on Welker, Gronk, and Lloyd.

TE: Dustin Keller vs. Buff – Dustin Keller kills the Bills. Plain and simple. I refuse to believe the Bills D is all of a sudden this great unit. It’s not.

DEF: NY Jets vs. Buff – Rex Ryan vs. Chan Gailey. Yep.

DEF: Houston Texans vs. Miami – Anybody against the Dolphins is a solid start this year.

Be Prepared For Trash Talk If You’re Starting…

QB: Joe Flacco vs. Cin – I just don’t buy all the new “high-powered Ravens offense” talk, and I don’t believe in Joe Flacco. And I certainly don’t this week against a very solid Bengals defense.

QB: Matt Schaub vs. Miami – Miami has an awful team from top to bottom, and the Texans will smack them around, but look for Houston to keep it close to the vest, run the ball a ton, and not rack up a lot of passing numbers.

RB: Marshawn Lynch @ Arz – I’m down on Lynch overall this year, but especially this week. He’s already got minor injuries nagging him and the Cards surprisingly have a pretty solid defense. Don’t be surprised if Robert Turbin ends up with more carries this week.

RB: Michael Turner @ KC – Oh yeah, that whole pass-happy Atlanta offense thing? Michael Turner doesn’t fit in so well. And KC has a pretty tough defense.

RB: Maurice Jones Drew @ Minn & RB: Adrian Peterson vs. Jax – I’m lumping these two together since they’re playing on the same field and are pretty much in the same situation. MJD can’t be trusted because he held out of camp for 6 weeks to… well, he really didn’t get anything out of it, actually. And Peterson still hasn’t been allowed to take hits below the waist in Vikings practices. I’m no expert like Evan Silva or anything, but that doesn’t seem to me like he’s ready to really contribute in a meaningful way this weekend. I’d bench both of these guys.

WR: Stevie Johnson @ NYJ – Two words: Darrelle. Revis. Make that a very pissed off Darrelle Revis, actually, after he’s had to hear all offseason how Johnson owns him.

WR: Roddy White @ KC – Yes, you should absolutely start Roddy White if you have him on your team. But no, you should not expect top 5 or even top 10 level production from him this week. Julio Jones is now “the man” in Atlanta.

WR: Mike Wallace @ Den – I touched on this before, but he’s likely to get a whole lot of Champ Bailey this week, and after this prolonged holdout, I don’t think it’s going to be a very good night for Wallace.

TE: Jermaine Gresham @ Balt – Gresham has a really good chance to have a nice season for Cincinnati, but that’s much more likely to begin in week 2 after he heals up and doesn’t have to face the Ravens defense.

TE: Vernon Davis @ GB – All of the 49ers are going to have a rough go of it this week in Green Bay. The Packers and Dom Capers are smart enough to know that even with all the WR additions in San Fran, Davis is still the man to key on.

DEF: SF 49ers @ GB – The 49ers will still have an excellent defense this year and will rack up a ton of fantasy points. It just won’t be this week.

Turn On The Jets Week 1 Roundtable: Jets/Bills Match-Up

The Turn On The Jets staff discusses what match-up they are most looking forward to in the upcoming Jets/Bills match-up

The TOJ staff discusses what match-up they are most looking forward to this Sunday when the New York Jets take on the Buffalo Bills. We also give our picks for the tonight’s NFL kickoff, as we will be tracking our record against the spread all season –

Joe Caporoso – Darrelle Revis vs. Stevie Johnson – There is nothing more overhyped than Johnson’s “success” against Revis and I’m thrilled it has been dragged through the headlines the past few days. Revis is lining up for a Defensive Player of the Year Award considering he is in a contract year and about to be the best player on one of the league’s top defenses. When the Jets are 7-5 heading into December and all the genius pundits who picked them to go 4-12 are bumbling for excuses, it will start with how dominant their defense turned out to be and that discussion will center around Revis, who will kick off a career year this week by blanketing Johnson. With Johnson out of the equation, who exactly will Ryan Fitzpatrick be throwing the football to?

Yes of course Austin Howard vs. Mario Williams will merit watching. Hopefully, Tony Sparano is smart enough to do everything in his power to limit the 1 on 1 match-ups between the two and to consistently roll Sanchez away from Williams. There is no way Howard could do worse than Wayne Hunter did against DeMarcus Ware last year and the Jets managed to win that game.

Chris Celletti – When your offensive line is bad, your offense has no chance of being consistently good. In today’s pass-heavy league, there’s nothing more important than keeping your quarterback upright. And if you’re the Jets who are stuck in 1954 and want to run the ball 50 times a game, you also need great play up front. There’s no question that the Jets’ offensive live is a big question mark as we begin 2012, and they have a tough task off the bat with the newly Mario Williams-led BIlls’ defensive front. All eyes will be on right tackle Austin Howard, and I’m sure the Bills will line Williams up over him often. Of course the way to neutralize a good pass rush is to run the ball well, but the combination of the Jets’ offensive line and Shonn Greene hasn’t lit the world up this preseason and didn’t during last regular season. How will the Jets’ o-line look in the Wildcat? We’ll finally get to see the super-secret offense on Sunday.

Mike Donnelly – The obvious matchups to watch in this game are Revis vs. Stevie Johnson (no contest), and of course Austin Howard against Mario Williams (sadly, also a big mismatch), and of course I’m interested in seeing how those play out. However, the matchup in this game I’m really looking forward to seeing are the Jets linebackers and new safeties against the Bills spread attack that features two solid pass-catching running backs in CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson. Can Bart Scott prove he deserves to play all three downs? Can Demario Davis make an impact for this defense? Can LaRon Landry lay some big-time hits and stay healthy? These are the slightly under the radar things I’m looking forward to watching this Sunday.

Rob Celletti – There’s been an awful lot of hype about the Buffalo Bills for the last 18 months or so; some of it well-earned, some of it a fabrication of the media.  One element of Chan Gailey’s squad that is often cited as a reason that the Bills are expected to be in the thick of the wild card hunt is their defensive line, bolstered by the off-season additions of Mario Williams and Mark Anderson.  Everyone expects the Bills to be a sack machine, of course, especially against what the media has told us for 7 months is a suspect Jets offensive line. And, well, let’s be honest: the Jets gave up 22 sacks in the preseason. Twenty-two! In four games!  Yikes.

However, let’s not forget that this line boasts three first round draft picks and two Pro Bowlers.  Yes, every Jets fan with half a brain is livid over the fact that last year’s most glaring problem – the right tackle position – was not addressed until the 11th hour.  But it does appear that the Jets have upgraded, albeit marginally, at that position.

Week 1 provides a stern test for the Jets’ offensive line.  Joe has already touched upon this in his early look at this week’s game, but it’s worth reiterating.  The Jets, regardless of the evolution of the NFL into a passing-oriented league, are going to look to make their mark in the trenches, establishing Shonn Greene, and yes, Tim Tebow in the running game.  Their passing attack will come second, though don’t be surprised to see the Jets attempt and complete more passes down the field in the first half of Sunday’s game than they did seemingly all of last season.  But in order to complete the back shoulder throw to Stephen Hill or the seam route to Dustin Keller, Sanchez is going to need time.  If he doesn’t have time, he’ll get sacked frequently.  He may throw quicker than he wants to, into coverage.  And with sacks and incomplete passes and interceptions come the calls for the quarterback’s head… and that’s a discussion the Jets need to avoid at all costs for this season to be successful.

So yeah, let’s hope the Jets’ line can keep #6’s jersey clean.

Chris Gross–  Austin Howard vs. Mario Williams – People can talk about Darrelle Revis and Stevie Johnson all they want. Sure, considering Johnson’s self proclaimed success over Revis in the past, that is a very intriguing story line to follow. However,the match up between the two will not influence the outcome of the game nearly as great as Howard vs. Williams. In last season’s opener, DeMarcus Ware toyed with Wayne Hunter in his first career opening day start. Ware accounted for 2 of Dallas’s 4 total sacks that night, and gave Jets fans an unfortunate preview of what would become habitual throughout the entire season. How Howard and the entire offensive line handle the newly revamped defensive line of Buffalo could be a significant sign of how the offense will fare this season. Expect the Jets to give the new Right Tackle ample help with backs and tight ends to assist in blocking the former first overall selection out of North Carolina State. Although Williams has never beaten the Jets in his entire career,he certainly represents the strong point of a defense that will look to expose the Jets largest weakness at Right Tackle.

Tonight’s Predictions

  • Joe – Giants (-3.5)
  • TJ – Dallas (+3.5)
  • Rob – Dallas (+3.5)
  • Mike – Giants (-3.5)
  • Chris G – Giants (-3.5)
  • Chris C – Giants (-3.5)

Turn On The Jets Stock Watch – Regular Season Preview Edition

Mike Donnelly’s Stock Watch previews the New York Jets 2012 regular season

After months of back and forth debating that in many cases turned into all-out fighting and arguing about the Jets, the season is finally here. I know if you watch ESPN, NFL Network, or whatever other stations full of “experts” there are out there, you’ll get the impression the Jets have no chance to compete this year, but I’m a much more optimistic lad. Call me crazy, but I’m downright giddy about the Jets chances this year and I think their offensive woes have been blown way out of proportion. To prove that point, I’m going to be dedicating this week’s stock watch to buying and selling made-up statistical props for the Jets players in 2012. Let’s start with the quarterback who will be leading the Jets this year and prove all the doubters wrong..

BUY: TIM TEBOW

Just kidding..

BUY: Mark Sanchez over 60% completions – With Brian Schottenheimer and his baffling offensive system out of town, look for Mark to thrive under Tony Sprarano. He won’t put up eye-popping statistics, but you can bet his completion percentage will improve a great deal as the team runs the ball with more consistency and actually works off that with some play-actions which were mysteriously absent from Schotty’s playbook.

BUY: Mark Sanchez under 15 interceptions – With a less-confusing offense that better suits his skills, Mark’s interception total is going to go down to around the 12-13 area instead of the 18 he threw last year. Unfortunately, I don’t see him approaching the 26 touchdowns through the air from a year ago this season either, though.

BUY: Shonn Greene over 1500 yards from scrimmage – Yes, Shonn Greene is going to eclipse 1,500 yards from scrimmage this year. Many Jets fans, including some on this very site, are extremely down on the former third round pick, but I am not one of them. I expect the offensive line to get their crap together and for Greene to really hit his stride on the ground this season as he’s fed the ball repeatedly. And I can’t stress this enough: Shonn Greene is entering his contract year. He’s going to bust his ass to put up numbers and get paid. This is a lock.

BUY: Santonio Holmes over 70 Catches and 10 TD’s – Well he had 8 TD’s and 51 catches last year and it can’t get much worse than the year he had, right? Look for the Jets to force the ball to Holmes early in the season to get him involved and keep him happy. Plus, he’s the only reliable receiver on the team, so throwing to him early and often makes a ton of sense.

SELL: Chaz Schilens over 10 catches – The way it’s looking now, I’d probably sell if the over was 0.5 catches. Ugh. Hope I’m wrong about this one.

SELL: Austin Howard over 4.5 starts at RT – Another one I hope I’m wrong about, because having Howard become a legit starting RT would be a major boon for the offense. Plus, it would cause Mike Tannenbaum to nearly collapse in joy at the thought of finding his own diamond in the rough to appease his “Next Victor Cruz” obsession. And that’s not to mention some Jets bloggers who shall remain nameless that have already made plans to attend Austin Howard’s Hall of Fame induction in the year 2034. That being said, I just don’t think Howard is going to last, and Jason Smith will be the man on the right side before long.

BUY: Coples and Wilkerson combined over 10.5 sacks – Considering these are both interior pass rushers, over 10 sacks combined might be a little bit of a lofty goal. BUT,these two guys are incredibly talented and athletic and are going to cause major havoc in opposing backfields. Even if they fall a little short of this number combined, they’ll be directly responsible for about a dozen other sacks that will fall into the laps of Calvin Pace and Aaron Maybin on the outside. Unfortunately this won’t stop plenty of yahoo Jets fans who will look at the sack numbers, not see double digits each and call both of them busts. Sigh.

SELL: Aaron Maybin over 10 sacks – I think Maybin will lead the team in sacks this year, but I don’t think he will crack double digits. Think 7-9 for him and that will be just fine when combined with our young studs on the line. Defenses are going to pay more attention to him this yearf, so cracking 10 could be tough.

SELL: Darrelle Revis over 0.5 TD’s allowed – Ok let’s see here. We’re witnessing perhaps the greatest defensive back of all time at the age of 27. He’s in his absolute athletic peak. He gave up one touchdown last year and people have dogged him about it since, saying Stevie Johnson now owns him. He’s playing for a new contract that will likely make him the highest paid non-quarterback in the history of the NFL. Umm, yeah I’m gonna go ahead and say we’re about to see some kind of historic season from Number 24. Oh, and Stevie Johnson, if you’re reading this (and why wouldn’t you be?) you’re screwed this week. SCREWED.

BUY: Nick Folk over 30 FG’s made this year – Folk has had an excellent off-season, beating out Josh Brown, and we all know how much Tony Sparano loves his field goals.

BUY: Jets over 8.5 wins this year – I’ve been over this time and time again (like in my AFC East Preview), but this is a lock. With that schedule and that defense, 9 wins should be an afterthought. I’m thinking 10 or 11 and a deep playoff run. I’m getting excited just thinking about this team’s potential.

So forget the haters. Forget Evan Silva and Mike Florio. The hell with Merrill Hoge and Gary Myers and Mike Francesa. Ignore the Tim Tebow disciples like Skip Bayless. This team has a real chance to give us a special season that we’ll remember for a long time. Let’s sit back and enjoy the ride.

Early Thoughts On Jets/Bills Week 1 Match-Up

Early thoughts on the New York Jets week 1 match-up against the Buffalo Bills

A collection of early thoughts on the New York Jets week 1 match-up against the Buffalo Bills, make sure you check back later in the day for Mike Donnelly’s Stock Watch. Also if you are planning to head out in NYC tomorrow for the NFL opener or Sunday for Jets/Bills, we have partnered with Night Out to hook you up with a discount at Traffic East in Midtown. 

1. It sounds like Sione Pouha is 50/50 to play this Sunday. Pouha is obviously one of the Jets top defenders and his presence would be missed. However, the team is well equipped to handle his absence this week for two main reasons. First off, because of Buffalo’s spread attack, the Jets will spend more time in their nickel and sub packages, which would equal less playing time for him anyway. Second, Kenrick Ellis has been terrific this pre-season and is a capable stop-gap for a week or two. It might be better to exercise caution with Pouha and make sure he is 100 percent for week 2 in Pittsburgh.

2. The Jets haven’t had this low of expectations since prior to the 2006 season, which is a good thing. In the past decade, they have performed better in seasons where the expectations weren’t high. Most “experts” are ignoring the reality of how strong the Jets defense will be and how soft their schedule is, particularly when it comes to playing inexperienced quarterbacks and quarterbacks Rex Ryan has had success against.

3. Speaking of quarterbacks Ryan has had success against, Ryan Fitzpatrick is 0-4 in his last 4 starts against Rex Ryan’s Jets with an average QB rating of 70.3.

4. A few more fun Buffalo stats against the Jets since Chan Gailey took over

  • 0-4 record
  • Average margin of defeat – 18.75 points
  • Average points per game – 14 points
5. An overhyped storyline coming into this week will be Stevie Johnson’s “success” against Darrelle Revis, stemming from the “monster” 8 catch, 75 yard, 1 touchdown game he had against him last year. Of course most people neglect Revis was supposed to have underneath help on Johnson’s touchdown and that 8 catches for 75 yards wasn’t enough for a win that day. I am sure everybody in the Jets building is hoping Buffalo comes after Revis early and often with Johnson.
6. If Buffalo was smart, they’d make CJ Spiller a large part of their game plan on Sunday, particularly in the passing game. The more you can force the Jets linebackers into coverage, the better chance you have to move the football on their defense. Buffalo lacks a tight end who can exploit the middle of the field so Spiller is their best bet to take advantage of the softest spot of the Jets defense.

7. The best way to neutralize Mario Williams and Mark Anderson is for the Jets to establish Shonn Greene early and often, and then work the play action passing game off him. It doesn’t matter how highly touted rookie Stephon Gilmore is, he is still a rookie. If the Jets can get Santonio Holmes on him 1 on 1, they have to go after him.

8. You hate to say week 1 games are must wins but look at the Jets schedule, look at what everybody has been saying about Buffalo this off-season…this is a must win. The Jets can burst the early bubble on the Buffalo hype train, build momentum heading into a tough week two game on the road, get a crucial division win and avoid the embarrassment of feeding into pundits by losing in their own building to the supposed “up and coming” AFC East team.

Turn On The Jets – Week 1 Giveaway Contest

Turn On The Jets is partnering with Gameday Goods to give away a free New York Jets mini helmet, sign up here!

We are happy to participate in this giveaway with Gameday Goods for New York Jets fans in week one, check out the details below –

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