New York Jets: Getting The Most Out Of Mark Sanchez

While staff writer Chris Gross has been spending his time in the film room breaking down the New York Jets draft picks, I have spent the bulk of the my time in the film room going back through Mark Sanchez’s first three years as a NFL quarterback. There is no reason to sugarcoat the reality, this is a make or break year for Sanchez. There isn’t a backup quarterback in the NFL breathing heavier down the starter’s neck (for the wrong or right reasons) than Tim Tebow.

Sanchez has had more success in terms of winning football games than any other quarterback in franchise history, outside of Joe Namath. Unfortunately for him, NFL fans and New Yorkers in particular have a short memory. Right now all everybody can remember is Eli Manning hoisting up his second Super Bowl trophy in five years and Sanchez flaming out at the end of last season, most notably against those Super Bowl champion New York Giants.

So for better or worse, Sanchez’s time needs to be now. I have seen every snap he has taken since coming into this league but I wanted to go back to confirm my observations, with a particular focus on his best games and his worst games. What are the elements that went into the game plans that made him successful? What was missing in the games he struggled in? What is the best approach for Tony Sparano and the new offensive staff to take in order to get the most out of their starting quarterback?

Let’s start with a few general observations before getting into a specific games -

Pros

• Sanchez’s arm strength is not an issue. A common misconception about Sanchez’s game is that he lacks the arm strength to make all the throws necessary in a NFL playbook. He actually throws a very good deep ball when given the opportunity and has zipped plenty of passes into tight windows through bracketed coverage. Brian Schottenheimer did not ask Sanchez to throw outside the hashes a high percentage of the time but he has completed his share of deep outs and comebacks.

• He is a very good athlete. Sanchez is more mobile than people give him credit for and has an ability to extend the play. This has been a gift and a curse to him throughout his NFL career, as it has led to big plays and head scratching interceptions.

• He throws well on the run/is a good play action quarterback. It is head scratching why Brian Schottenheimer didn’t move the pocket more last season with the Jets suspect line. Sanchez throws very well on the rollout and has consistently succeeded off play action throughout his career.

Cons

• Coverage/Defense recognition. Many of Sanchez’s interceptions come from him not recognizing a defense properly, most notably not taking into account a defender playing underneath his target in a zone. The only solution to this is film study.

• Quick Trigger. When Sanchez is getting poor protection his defensive recognition goes from questionable to non-existent. He will often lock into to his first read and if that isn’t open, look immediately to his check down with an inaccurate pass. There have been times he has extended a play with his legs and created something down field, which is something he needs to do more often. Sanchez also must do better with blitz recognition pre-snap.

• Accuracy Inconsistencies. A factor in Sanchez’s low completion percentage throughout his career has been working with a different group of starting receivers every year of his career, including a few who couldn’t get separation. However, he is too often hot/cold when it comes to his accuracy. Sanchez must find a way to break himself out of slumps quicker.

The best stretch of football Sanchez played in his career, came in week 2-4 of the 2010 season. When he posted the following stat lines against his divisional rivals

• Week 2 – Vs. New England – 21/30, 220 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs
• Week 3 – At Miami – 15/28, 256 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs
• Week 4 – At Buffalo – 14/24, 161 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs

What were the common denominators in these games? Three key things: Dustin Keller, running the football, and limited passing attempts. Keller had 115 yards receiving against New England with a touchdown, 98 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns against Miami, and 28 receiving yards and 2 more touchdowns against Buffalo. An involved Keller means a productive Sanchez.

The Jets ran the ball well in all three games, going for 136 yards, 146 yards and 273 yards respectively. In each game, they averaged well over 4 yards per carry. Finally, they kept Sanchez’s pass attempts at 30 or under. The offense was well balanced but tipped slightly towards running the football.

It is interesting to note that Sanchez had one other very strong stretch in 2010 in week 9-11 that broke with the trends from the earlier stretch.

• Week 9 – At Detroit – 22/39, 336 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
• Week 10 – At Cleveland – 27/44, 299 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
• Week 11 – Vs. Houston – 22/38, 315 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Note that despite Sanchez playing well, he turned the ball over in every game because his pass attempts went above 30. The Jets also didn’t run the ball as well producing 110 yards, 172 yards and 103 yards respectively and never cracking over 4 yards per carry. The Jets did win all three of these games but all were under extraordinary circumstances against subpar competition.

Sanchez had one last very good stretch of football in 2010, the divisional round against New England and the AFC Championship Game against Pittsburgh, with the best game coming against the Patriots. He went 16/25, for 194 yards and 3 touchdowns. Once again, under 30 attempts and a strong rushing effort (120 yards, 4.1 yard per carry) were present. Keller wasn’t a factor but Jerricho Cotchery filled the safety blanket void by coming up with 96 receiving yards. In the AFC Championship Game, Sanchez did just barely crack 30 attempts, going 20/33 for 233 yards and 2 TDs with 0 INTs but Keller had 8 receptions.

Looking at 2011, Sanchez didn’t really have a game that touched his stretch early in the 2010 season. He did have a few games that mirrored the middle stretch where he threw the ball a ton, racked up a bunch of passing yards but also turned the ball over. Sanchez threw the ball over 30 times in 10 games and the Jets had a 4-6 record in those contests. He actually threw the ball 35 times or more in 7 games and the team had a 2-5 record when that occurred.

Not surprisingly, his three best games from the standpoint of quarterback rating came when he threw 21 times, 26 times, and 25 times respectively. The running game was good not great in those games but in reality the running game was never great for the Jets last year, which was a major contributor to Sanchez’s and the team’s struggles.

What was most perplexing about last season is that the Jets waited until they had a questionable offensive line to drop Sanchez back at a much higher rate. 35 passes against Baltimore with Colin Baxter and Wayne Hunter starting? 59 passes against the Giants pass rush, with Wayne Hunter still starting? 40 passes in Denver, with yes…Wayne Hunter starting? That is poor coaching and those were three of Sanchez’s worst games last year. As you could imagine, the Jets averaged 75 rushing yards per game in those three losses and Dustin Keller averaged 43 yards receiving and had zero touchdowns.

On top of that, Sanchez was dealing with play calls that forced him to focus seemingly exclusively inside the hashes, where the most possible traffic was. The options on the outside were limited thanks to a sluggish Plaxico Burress and a struggling Santonio Holmes.

When it comes to coaching Sanchez this season, Tony Sparano would be wise to focus on building a reliable, power rushing attack. Ideally, Sanchez should be dropping back 22-28 times per game and be able to take advantage of his play action skills on a big chunk of those pass attempts. He should frequently be moved outside the pocket and Dustin Keller always needs to be a big part of the game plan. Rookie Stephen Hill and second year receiver Jeremy Kerley should help clear more space in the intermediate passing game for him. Finally, Sparano can’t be afraid to let Sanchez throw outside the hashes and down the field.

Without question, one of his biggest challenges will be game planning around the right tackle’s deficiencies, whether it is Wayne Hunter or Vlad Ducasse. If Sparano could protect Sanchez adequately, he has a quarterback more than talented enough to win with.

Looking At New York Jets Post-Draft Depth Chart

At this point of the off-season, we are starting to get a good idea of what the New York Jets 53 man roster will look like heading into the 2012 season. There will still be a handful of minor transactions, injuries and surprises that could shake a few things up but here is a general overview of what we know and what to potentially expect in the coming months -

Quarterback – Mark Sanchez is going to be the starter. Tim Tebow will be the backup/option running/occasional h-backing guy and Greg McElroy will be the 3rd quarterback. Unless there is some type injury, these three are locks.

Running Back – Shonn Greene will be back as the starter. Joe McKnight should start out as the primary third down back and will hopefully get more of a chance to play to his potential under Tony Sparano. John Conner is the only pure fullback on the roster. After that it gets interesting, sixth round pick Terrance Ganaway is a bruising back who fits as a natural backup to Shonn Greene and is experienced running the option which should get him a chance for playing time when Tebow is on the field. Where does that leave last year’s fourth round pick Bilal Powell? I am not sure if the Jets will carry five backs or if Powell is good enough to beat out McKnight or Ganaway for a spot.

Tight End – Dustin Keller survived a few trade rumors and will be back as one of the Jets top options in the passing game. Beyond him, the depth chart is very cloudy. The Jets still lack a pure blocking tight end. Jeff Cumberland is a taller, slower version of Keller who is coming off major surgery. Josh Baker is more of a H-Back. Hayden Smith has a tough transition to make from rugby to football. I would not be surprised if the team added a blocking tight end at some point. It is a complete crapshoot who the number two tight end will be at this point and if the team will carry two or three tight ends.

Wide Receiver – Santonio Holmes is the number one. Rookie Stephen Hill is going to be given every opportunity to be the number two. Jeremy Kerley fits well as the slot receiver and should be a high impact player on the offense. Patrick Turner is experienced, familiar with Sparano’s offense and can contribute on special teams so he has the inside track at the number four spot. Recently signed Chaz Schilens has big play potential and if he can stay healthy should stick on the roster. It will be an uphill battle for seventh round pick Jordan White and players like Logan Payne, Scotty McKnight and Eron Riley. A safe bet for now is that they will carry five receivers (Holmes, Hill, Kerley, Turner, Schilens).

Offensive Line – We know Nick Mangold, D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Brandon Moore and Matt Slauson will be back as starters. Despite the objections of most rational people in the free world, it appears the plan is to have Wayne Hunter, Vladimir Ducasse and Austin Howard compete for the starting right tackle spot. My guess is that the Jets will see how they look in training camp and if it appears to be a disaster, they could place a quick call over to veteran Vernon Carey who knows Tony Sparano’s offense to step in. Mike Tannenbaum’s favorite player Caleb Schlauderaff projects as the being the top interior backup and rookie Robert T. Griffin could have a decent chance to make the team, if he shows the versatility to play guard and tackle.

Defensive Line – Arguably the deepest position on the team. As of now the starters are Muhammad Wilkerson, Sione Pouha and Mike DeVito. However, do not be surprised if DeVito is cut or traded at some point before the season to pave the way for first round Quntion Coples to step into the starting line-up. It would save the team 3 million dollars and the Jets have capable backups in Marcus Dixon and Ropati Pitoitua. Kenrick Ellis should also see a little more time this year spelling Pouha in certain situations.

Linebackers – David Harris remains one of the best inside linebackers in football. Calvin Pace is a good outside linebacker who can set the edge to help stop the run but has lost explosiveness in getting after the passer. The Jets are risking the other two starting spots to Bart Scott and Bryan Thomas. Scott looked just about finished last year but is returning at a lighter weight and can hopefully be the solid two down linebacker he was in 2009 and 2010. Bryan Thomas is coming off major surgery but should open camp as starting outside backer opposite Pace.

The depth is intriguing, third round pick DeMario Davis has an exciting skill set and should be able to help on passing downs this year and be the long term replacement for Bart Scott. Aaron Maybin will be a year better in Rex Ryan’s system as a pass rushing specialist and hopefully the addition of Coples will lead to him seeing more one on ones in pass rushing situations. Garret McIntyre, Josh Magua got experience last year and should be able to grab roster spots.

Corner – Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson are one of the better trios in the league. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jets added veteran Chris Johnson to be their 4th corner. If not Ellis Lankster and Isaiah Trufant will be the frontrunners to compete for the spot.

Safety – LaRon Landry and Eric Smith are the starters as of right now and arguably rookies Josh Bush and Antonio Allen project as the top backups. I would not be surprised if the Jets added another veteran to the mix, whether it is Yeremiah Bell or Jim Leonhard for insurance.

Special Teams – Nick Folk and TJ Conley remain the frontrunners to return as kicker and punter, respectively. Tanner Purdum will be the long snapper.

New York Jets Select WR Stephen Hill

The New York Jets have swapped 2nd round picks with Seattle to select WR Stephen Hill out of Georgia Tech. Hill gives the Jets the deep threat their offense has been lacking at Wide Receiver since the departure of Braylon Edwards.

At 6’4″ 215 lbs, Hill is an athletic freak, having run a 4.36 40-yard dash at the combine, which is remarkable considering his size.
A big play specialist, Hill had 820 receiving yards on only 28 catches in 2011, averaging a mind blowing 29.3 yards per catch. Of his 28 catches last season, 9 were for over 30 yards, 5 were for over 50, and 2 were for over 70. His season long was an 82 yard touchdown in Georgia Tech’s opener against Western Carolina. There is no doubt that he can make the big play, and with his impressive size and blocking experience (coming from a run first offense), he will contribute to the run game immediately.

The move to get Hill certainly gives New York much needed depth at Wide Receiver and he should be able to come in and compete for the starting spot opposite Santonio Holmes right away. Hill is still a raw prospect, especially coming from the option offense at Georgia Tech, but his tremendous upside gives him great value at this pick, and he should be able to open up the offense for the Jets as he develops. This move seemingly rules out any reunion with Braylon Edwards.

New York still has several needs at OLB, S, and RT, so keep an eye out for how the remainder of the night plays out. The Jets own the 77th overall pick in round 3 tonight.

Analysis Of New York Jets 2012 Schedule

Full New York Jets 2012 Schedule

When it comes to analyzing the NFL schedule, it is crucial to keep in mind how much things will change from now until these games are actually played. If you follow the league, you understand the turnover from year to year and even from week to week. That being said, who doesn’t want to pick through this right now? Let’s take a closer look -

Bills Mafia – The New York Jets open and close the season with the Buffalo Bills…or Fredo of the AFC East as I like to call them. You can be sure that everybody will be picking the Bills to eclipse the Jets in the AFC East as the main competitor to the New England Patriots. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jets were underdogs despite being at home week 1. They have a great opportunity to knock the air out of the Bills hype balloon right out of the gate.

Rough Start – The Jets play three playoff teams from 2011, outside of the New England Patriots and all three of them come before week 6. In week 2 they are at Pittsburgh, in week 4 they are home against San Francisco and then in week 5 they will be at home on Monday Night against Houston. Plenty of people will be picking a 49ers/Texans Super Bowl…the Jets get them back to back in their building.

Perfect Split – Week 9 is the bye week for the Jets, which splits the season perfectly in half. In the first half, they have 5 home games and 3 road games. In the second half, they have 5 road games and 3 home games. Yet, they don’t play a single team who made the playoffs last year outside of New England.

Primetime – 4 of them for the Jets, including the headliner home Thanksgiving game against New England. It is hard to find another game to be more excited about. Start telling your family now you’ll be busy for the holiday…

Divisional Breakdown – The Jets have Buffalo in week 1 and week 17, New England in week 7 and week 12 and Miami in week 3 and week 8.

Friendly Break – The bye week is directly before the Jets cross country trip to play in Seattle.

Rough Break – After Seattle, the Jets play in St. Louis and then have 4 days to get ready for New England on Thanksgiving at home.

No predictions yet…we will have enough of those on the draft in the next week

Why The Jets Would Be Foolish To Pass On Upshaw

If you haven’t seen our updated mock draft yet, check it out from Friday. Today we have TOJ writer Chris Gross playing Devil’s Advocate to his editor and others out there who are aren’t high on Alabama outside linebacker Courtney Upshaw.

As the 2012 NFL Draft draws closer each day, prospects continue to see their stocks rise and plummet on what seems to be an hourly basis. One player in particular who has been extremely up and down since the end of the college football season is Alabama OLB/DE Courtney Upshaw. The last time scouts saw Upshaw with pads on he was celebrating the Crimson Tide’s National Championship victory over SEC rival LSU. After that game, the idea of Upshaw falling to the Jets at the 16th pick in the draft seemed extremely far fetched. Jets fans knew what Upshaw could bring to the team, but at that point, it just did not seem realistic that New York could obtain him without trading up.

However, as weeks have progressed into months this offseason, Upshaw has seen his stock dramatically fall, with fellow OLB/DE draft prospects Quinton Coples and Melvin Ingram jumping ahead of him in just about every analyst’s rankings. As is the case for every draft, this practice is expected. Countless analysts and scouts lose sight of production and focus heavily on testing numbers during this time of year. Since Upshaw did not blow anyone away with his pro day numbers in comparison to Ingram and Coples, he has been drastically plummeting down draft boards. Several draft experts currently have him available at pick 16 in their latest mock drafts with the Jets passing on him. However, passing on Upshaw would be a horrible mistake for New York, one that could end up being Kyle Brady/Warren Sapp like.

Ingram and Coples are both solid prospects. Although the Jets would be foolish to trade up for Coples, it would not be a bad move to do so for Ingram. As we all know, Mike Tannenbaum has yet to miss on trading up for someone, so if he does it, believe that it is in good faith and knowledge. However, there is no reason for them to sacrifice draft picks if it looks like Upshaw will be available at pick 16. Ingram and Upshaw have very similar career statistics. Both had minor injuries early in their collegiate careers and did not start playing significantly until their junior and senior seasons. During both of those years Upshaw had 16.5 sacks and 104 tackles. Ingram, on the other hand, had 19 sacks while recording 75 tackles.

Statistically, these players are both very close, and both would help the Jets tremendously at OLB, the position this defense is literally starving for. While Ingram is seemingly the more athletic, pass rushing type, one cannot argue Upshaw’s overall production. In his last two seasons at Alabama, he had only 2.5 less sacks than Ingram, while recording nearly 30 more tackles. Testing numbers certainly don’t account for on the field production.

Aside from overall statistics and numbers, Upshaw possesses the greatest intangible that gets left out of draft evaluations, the intangible that puts him above every prospect at his position in this year’s draft, the ability to play big in big games. Not only does Upshaw have the big game experience, playing on arguably the best defense in the best conference in college football the past two seasons, but he has also has risen to the challenge in every big game he has played in. This past season alone, 9 of his 9.5 sacks came against SEC opponents. 2 of those were against rival Auburn, while he recorded 1 in each of the matchups against LSU, which proved to be the best two defensive games college football has seen in recent years.

Upshaw has answered the calling when its mattered the most, and this should certainly not be overlooked. The bottom line is that Upshaw has the “it” factor that only few players in every draft posses. Although trading up for Ingram would certainly not hurt the Jets, it would serve them right to wait at 16 and take Upshaw, who has played his best football on the biggest stages. Not only is his position a dire need for Gang Green, but so are his intangibles. Other than Darrelle Revis and David Harris, there were very few members of the Jets defense who came up in big moments last season. New York could certainly use another guy like this to bring back the vaunted defense that helped them to two straight AFC title games.

Cooler Heads Must Prevail for the Jets

Right now, the world of the New York Jets is spiraling out of control in ways that couldn’t have been imagined in the Rex Ryan era; purported to be one of continued success and stability for an organization that has seriously lacked both of those things for the better part of 50 years.

Driven by a dysfunctional locker room and a bloodthirsty New York tabloid media, the perception of the Jets is such that everything is in flux and no one’s job is safe.  Outside of Rex Ryan being the team’s head coach, what can be counted on for this team as 2012 get underway?  It appears as though Tony Sparano and perhaps Todd Haley will be brought in to revamp the offense, while fans and – if the suddenly unprofessional and irresponsible Manish Mehta of the Daily News is to be believed – some players have called for Mark Sanchez to be replaced by Peyton Manning.

What really needs to happen?  Cooler heads must prevail.

It’s time for Rex Ryan to call a press conference, diffuse some of this media-driven chaos, and most importantly get his players in line.  Credit should go to Jim Leonhard and Nick Mangold, who have already come to Mark Sanchez’s defense on Twitter.

The Jets were a flawed bunch on both sides of the ball and their record reflected that. Rightfully, much of the blame fell on the quarterback because of the offense’s struggles at key moments during the season. But remember, the Jets were 8-8, not 2-14.  Mark Sanchez threw 26 touchdowns and 18 interceptions, not 5 and 24.

The point is, things are bad for the Jets right now, but they’re not as catastrophic as they seem.  Changes, particularly in offensive philosophy, needed to be made, and are being made (whether or not Sparano is the right move is another debate for another day).

Perhaps more importantly, a new leadership group must emerge for the Jets amongst the players themselves.  Rex Ryan, Brian Schottenheimer and the rest of the coaches can only take so much blame for the Jets’ dysfunction. Players must police themselves, and guys like Nick Mangold, Darrelle Revis, Sione Pouha, and most importantly, Mark Sanchez must become the ones who keep order, especially when things don’t go right.

New York Jets: A Report From The Road

I had the pleasure of making a road trip down to Washington, DC last week for the Jets’ at times frustrating yet ultimately very satisfying 34-19 win over the Redskins.  As usual, the game has been discussed at length and everyone is rightfully looking forward to the task at hand: the Kansas City Chiefs.  But I wanted to quickly recap some of the non-game facets of the trip.

There has been a fair amount of criticism in this space and elsewhere regarding the atmosphere at Jets games, the shortcomings of MetLife Stadium, the behavior of Jets fans and so on. All of that criticism is still justified, but after visiting FedEx Field, I realized that things in East Rutherford might not be so bad after all.

A friend of mine, who lived in Washington, DC for four years, described FedEx Field as “a soulless venue.”  This mostly has to do with the fact that the Redskins have had five winning seasons and four playoff appearances since 1992. Still, there was little to no energy in the building at kickoff.  As a matter of fact, about half of the stadium was empty, and people were still finding their seats with as late as 1:45 left in the first quarter. The Jet crowd (and most New York crowds nowadays) is notoriously late-arriving, but it has never been like that.

One cool moment occurred after the Redskins scored a touchdown on the opening drive.  After the extra point, the Redskins Marching Band (yes, they have a band, and yes, it sort of makes you feel like you’re at a high school game) broke into “Hail to the Redskins”, with the entire crowd singing along.

As an aside: I’m a big soccer fan and part of the reason I became one was the incredible atmosphere at English Premier League games. Hearing 40,000 people sing in unison to spur on their team is something that struck me, even only on television. So even though “Hail to the Redskins” has a decidedly college football feel, I was reminded of a soccer crowd. But in terms of positive atmosphere and energy from ‘Skins fans, that was it.

From a road fan perspective, I expected to sit quietly and watch the game, so as not to draw the attention and ire of the home crowd. However, section 430 at FedEx Field might as well have been section 317 at MetLife stadium, as there were hundreds of fellow gang green supporters nearby.  As the game progressed, my exaltations (and frustrations) were expressed out loud, with no threat of retribution. As a matter of fact, it seemed like ‘Skins fans were indifferent to the result of the game.

Seeing so many Jets fans at a road game renewed some of my faith in what I called one of the most negative fan-bases in sports just last week. Almost every fan I came in contact with was positive about the team, excited about the game and ready to show their support on the road.

They always say that the Steelers and Packers travel best, but when roughly 15,000 Jets fans at FedEx Field made the “J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets!” reverberate through vacated seats and concourses, I knew the trip was worth it.

New York Jets: Wins Are Good, Right?

It is a funny game they play in the National Football League.  Sometimes, the post-game discussion and analysis is even funnier.

This past Sunday, the New York Giants won an important home game against the upstart Buffalo Bills.  A 24-24 nailbiter turned on a late red zone interception by the Giants’ Corey Webster, setting up a game-winning field goal for Big Blue.

On Monday morning, the New York media heaped praise upon Tom Coughlin’s team, and rightfully so.  The Giants were feeling “Super” (wink, wink) at 4-2 heading into their bye week, and Eli Manning was praised as an elite quarterback, despite not throwing a touchdown pass in the Giants’ victory (and nearly being intercepted to kill the eventual game-winning drive).

On Monday night, at the very same stadium, the New York Jets won a game by 18 points, against a division opponent that always challenges and plays them close.  Similarly, this game also turned on a red zone interception, complete with a highlight film 100-yard run-back, the only moment which garnered a significant reaction from the lifeless MetLife Stadium crowd.  Darelle Revis’ goal-line interception righted the ship for the Jets, who settled in for an eventually comfortable, if imperfect 24-6 victory.

But if you picked up a newspaper, logged onto a blog, or listened to a sports-talk radio show on Tuesday, you’d have thought the Jets lost.  The main talking points hadn’t changed much from what they were when the Jets were mired in a 3-game losing streak: the quarterback was inconsistent, the running game was not explosive, the defense gave up too many yards.

Isn’t winning supposed to be fun?

I am aware that the Buffalo Bills are a much better football team than the Miami Dolphins, who are probably now considering full tank-mode so they can draft Andrew Luck.  But my point in comparing the two scenarios is to bring to light just how asinine and absurd some of the post-game analysis of the NFL truly is.

A lot of people made the point on Tuesday that if Revis’ pick-six doesn’t happen, there’s a strong chance the Jets don’t recover from a 10-0 deficit and lose the game.  First of all, there’s no way to prove that.  Secondly, how does the Giants game turn out if Webster doesn’t make his interception?  For that matter, how does any NFL game turn out if key plays don’t happen, or go the other way?  That’s what makes them key plays, right?

And really, that’s what it is all about in the NFL.  The salary cap makes it arguably the most competitive pro sports league in the world.  The “any given Sunday” cliche is one that actually holds true, especially in division games, where you always throw records out the window.  A lot of NFL games are decided by one or two plays.  The Giants were praised for theirs, the Jets were scolded.

Again, I’m under no illusions here.  I know the Dolphins are a lost cause, and that the Jets need to play much, much better football, especially at the start of games.  I’m not apologizing for what I think is a defense that has some holes personnel-wise and an offense that is being held back by their offensive coordinator.  But, the Jets won a game and are right back into their season now.  And oh yeah, they won by 18 points, thoroughly dominating their opponent in the second half.  People seem to have overlooked that.

Perhaps it’s a product of Rex Ryan’s change in the culture of the team, but it seems as though Jets fans are not satisfied with anything other than a 63-0 victory in any contest.  It has gotten a little absurd, quite frankly.  And if you think back to last year, the Jets weren’t exactly juggernauts, either, despite all of the good will an 11-5 season and a 2nd straight AFC Championship Game appearance created.  They needed 4th quarter comebacks and/or overtime to beat some below-average competition.  Their defense looked just as vulnerable last year (at times) as it does this year, especially on third downs and late in games.

People predicting a special season this year from the Jets were probably a bit misguided, which has led to an enormous amount of criticism – some justified, some not – of this .500 team so far.  But in the NFL, it often boils down to one or two plays in a close game.  The Jets aren’t currently great, but they’re probably not far off either.

2011 NFL Predictions

AFC East

1. New York Jets: 12-4
2. New England Patriots: 12-4 (Wild-Card)
3. Buffalo Bills: 6-10
4. Miami Dolphins: 5-11

AFC North

1. Baltimore Ravens: 11-5
2. Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-6 (Wild-Card)
3. Cleveland Browns: 8-8
4. Cincinnati Bengals: 3-13

AFC South

1. Houston Texans: 11-5
2. Tennessee Titans: 7-9
3. Indianapolis Colts: 6-10
4. Jacksonville Jaguars: 4-12

AFC West

1. San Diego Chargers: 11-5
2. Oakland Raiders: 8-8
3. Kansas City Chiefs: 5-11
4. Denver Broncos: 4-12

NFC East

1. Philadelphia Eagles: 11-5
2. Dallas Cowboys: 10-6
3. New York Giants; 7-9
4. Washington Redskins: 6-10

NFC North

1. Green Bay Packers: 12-4
2. Detroit Lions: 10-6 (Wild-Card)
3. Minnesota Vikings: 8-8
4. Chicago Bears: 5-11

NFC South

1. New Orleans Saints: 12-4
2. Atlanta Falcons: 10-6 (Wild-Card)
3. Tampa Bay Bucs: 6-10
4. Carolina Panthers: 4-12

NFC West

1. St. Louis Rams: 9-7
2. Arizona Cardinals: 6-10
3. San Francisco 49ers: 5-11
4. Seattle Seahawks: 5-11

AFC Championship: Jets over Patriots

NFC Championship: Saints over Eagles

Super Bowl: Jets over Saints

Offensive Player of the Year: Philip Rivers

Defensive Player of the Year: Darrelle Revis

League MVP: Drew Brees

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Julio Jones

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Marcell Dareus

Mark Sanchez: Worst Quarterback Ever?

I always find the incessant criticism of Mark Sanchez both entertaining and not surprising. He is the face of the most obnoxious, brash talking team in the NFL alongside Rex Ryan. Just like people can’t stand Ryan, people can’t stand Sanchez and refuse to credit his success while only focusing on his shortcomings.

Let’s be clear, Sanchez has been far from great in his first two years as a NFL starter. Yet, considering he started 16 games in college and he was thrown in as the starter from day one, I think he has shown enough to believe he will develop into a very good NFL quarterback.

He is constantly characterized as an “average” to “below average” player by the national media. You never hear anybody talking about him developing into a better player as the years go on, even though he took major strides in year two. However, you get people like Bill Barnwell saying Chad Henne can develop into Drew Brees. Matthew Stafford, Josh Freeman, and even the pathetic in any big spot Henne all get discussion about developing into future stars but not Sanchez, the guy with 19 regular season wins and 4 road playoff victories in two years.

The stat line on Sanchez’s first two years won’t impress anybody on paper. Yet keep in mind he threw 5 more touchdowns, 7 less interceptions, over 800 more yards, and won two more regular season games from year 1 to year 2.

I am really not concerned about the paper stats. I know that Sanchez plays better when the spot is bigger. I know he is clutch and I know he has taken every step since being drafted to becoming the leader of his team. I also know that average or below average quarterbacks don’t go into New England and go for a 16/25, 195 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs stat line while knocking Tom Brady out of the playoffs.

Other young quarterbacks get passes for being inconsistent, they also seem to get passes for not winning. Fortunately, Sanchez doesn’t even need to worry about a pass for the latter. The Jets are in good shape with their quarterback position and will be for the long term with Sanchez under center.