- Philadelphia (-2 ) vs. Buffalo
- New Orleans (-5) vs. Carolina
- Oakland (+6.5) vs. Houston
- Indianapolis (-1.5) vs Kansas City
- Cincinnati (+2.5) vs. Jacksonville
- Minnesota (-2.5) vs. Arizona
- New York Giants (-9) vs. Seattle
- Tennessee (+7.5) vs. Pittsburgh
- San Francisco (PK) vs. Tampa Bay
- San Diego (-4.5) vs. Denver
- New York Jets (+9) vs. New England
- Atlanta (+5.5) vs. Green Bay
- Chicago (+6.5) vs. Detroit
The 12 pack is ice cold right now after a strong start, very similar to the Jets. You keep reading (we had our highest month of traffic ever in September) and we keep picking. Here are 12 predictions for Jets/Pats on Sunday –
1. Mark Sanchez will not throw more than 26 passes on Sunday. He also will not turn the football over. Outside of that, I am not venturing a guess on his passing statistics.
2. Joe McKnight will have at least five offensive touches on Sunday. If he doesn’t, myself and TJ Rosenthal are protesting outside of Brian Schottenheimer’s house next week.
3. Aaron Maybin. Two weeks on the active roster. Two sacks. He will bring down Tom Brady on Sunday.
4. Tom Brady will throw for somewhere between 275 and 325 yards along with a pair of touchdowns. However he also turn the football over at least once.
5. Shonn Greene won’t crack 60 yards rushing.
6. Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski will combine for 150 yards receiving and a touchdown.
7. Joe Namath won’t approve of something he sees on the field this Sunday and tell the media about it, leading to 18 more stories on the topic of his thoughts next week.
8. Jamaal Westerman and Josh Mauga will see the bulk of the reps filling in for Bryan Thomas.
9. Dustin Keller will have at least 75 yards receiving and a touchdown.
10. Wes Welker will have less than 75 yards receiving.
11. Chad Ochocinco won’t be a factor in this game.
12. I have to do it. Patriots are going to win a tight one 27-23. Prove me wrong Jets.
A guest post on TOJ, looking at how Bill Belichick turns the game of football into a glorified chess match better than any coach in the NFL
Today’s guest post comes courtesy of Kevin Kelly from GET Broken Record. If you are interested in contributing a guest post, send an email request with your idea to JoeC@TurnOnTheJets.com
Bill Belichick plays chess with human beings. And he’s better at this particular version of the game than any man alive.
Normal chess is man against man, mind against mind, strategy and tactical maneuvers engineered to attack while simultaneously defending.
Football is a complicated version of chess. Complicated for three reasons:
1. Only a few people realize it’s happening. Everyone else, the players included, are caught up in the excitement of the moment. 100,000 screaming fans, millions more watching at home, touchdown dances, cheerleaders, fireworks, explosions, the whole nine yards. But high atop the field watching quietly in the booth, a few select men sit quietly, studying, analyzing. They don’t see the sweat dripping off the faces of the athletes competing; they see pieces moving on a board. They watch. They look for patterns, holes, strengths and weaknesses not only in their own pieces, but also in the movements of the opponent.
2. There are multiple games being played simultaneously, and both games are using the same set of pieces. For example, the Offensive Coordinator and Defensive Coordinator both watch the game from the booth, and they play against a corresponding set of coordinators. If New York’s O.Coordinator bests New England’s defense, it means nothing if New York’s Defense gets trumped by the O.Coordinator for the Patriots. And it happens on the fly. All of this information, dozens of statistics and conditions and tangible pieces of evidence that suggest the what, where and how to succeed is then passed from the booth down to the coach.
3. This is where Belichick’s genius comes into play. He is a master at thin-slicing. He’s given an incredible amount of information and in the blink of an eye can deduce what needs to happen, to which he consistently adds resolve. Setting specific pieces into motion at certain times to evoke a reaction that butterfly effects a result two possessions or quarters or games later. It really is an incredible thing.
Rex Ryan screamed last Sunday. He screamed last Monday. On Tuesday, he probably yelled again for good measure. He talks trash. It has come to define him. But this Sunday he faces the Gridiron’s Bobby Fischer in a must-win situation. When Fischer beat the Russian Champion Boris Spassky in 1972 in a best of 7 series, Fischer didn’t show up for the first game. He intentionally took the loss. And it baffled the Russian. Without words, without doing anything at all, he planted a seed that chipped away at the best player in the world. Fischer took the series a few days later and became the first American Champion…ever.
Silence has a way of baffling the loud and outspoken. It’s a move they don’t understand, only drawing them further and further in, until it’s far too late.
If the Jets are to win on Sunday, their leaders need to shy away from the immediacy of the scream, away from the excitement of the moment and the roar of the crowd, and focus instead on the pieces on the board as Belichick has done for the last 20 years. It’s the NFL. Both sides have muscle, strength, and conditioning, top tier talent. All of that means nothing if you lose your mental, as reason walks out when emotion walks in. This is where New York needs to improve. And this is exactly what New England will look to exploit. Football is chess with living pieces. And in the immortal words of Bobby Fischer: Chess is war over the board. The object is to crush the opponent’s mind.
Also check out an early week 5 preview
1. Green Bay Packers (4-0) – The champs are hitting on all cylinders right now.
2. New Orleans Saints (3-1) – They almost knocked off the Packers in week one. Darren Sproles was a complete steal for them in free agency.
3. Baltimore Ravens (3-1) – Laid an egg in Tennessee but look like they are ready to roll to a AFC North title.
4. New England Patriots (3-1) – They throw the football better than anybody in the league but what else can they do?
On The Rise
5. Detroit Lions (4-0) – Calvin Johnson is the best player in the NFL right now.
6. Tennessee Titans (3-1) – I trust them more than the Houston Texans to take the AFC South title.
7. Houston Texans (3-1) – Will this finally be the year they get over the hump?
8. San Diego Chargers (3-1) – An unimpressive 3-1…but considering their early season struggles in the past they will take it.
9. Washington Redskins (3-1) – Not as flashy of a team as their division counterparts but they could steal the NFC East.
10. New York Giants (3-1) – Rolling up wins in the first half of the season as they usually do.
11. Tampa Bay Bucs (3-1) – The young pups look like a legitimate playoff contender for the second year in a row.
12. Buffalo Bills (3-1) – Didn’t need that loss to Cincinnati with the schedule about to get more difficult.
13. Oakland Raiders (2-2) – Should be battling it out with San Diego for the division title out West.
14. San Francisco (3-1) – Solidly average is enough to roll in the NFC West.
15. New York Jets (2-2) – .500 never felt more like winless.
16. Atlanta Falcons (2-2) – They don’t look on New Orleans level this season.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) – Offensive lines are important (see Jets for this fact as well).
18. Dallas Cowboys (2-2) – Tony Romo is completely bipolar.
19. Chicago Bears (2-2) – Quickly losing ground on both Detroit and Green Bay.
20. Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) – Dream Team quickly turning into nightmare.
21. Carolina Panthers (1-3) – They will put up a fight every week with Cam Newton under center.
22. Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) – They already have more wins than I expected.
23. Cleveland Browns (2-2) – The Browns are at least beating the really crappy teams now.
Pretty Damn Bad
24. Seattle Seahawks (1-3) – You are always alive in the NFC West.
25. Arizona Cardinals (1-3) – See above.
26. Denver Broncos (1-3) – We want Tebow. We want Tebow.
27. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) – Going to be a rough rookie year for Blaine Gabbert.
28. Indianpolis Colts (0-4) – How many more times do we have to watch them in primetime?
Really Damn Bad
29. Kansas City Chiefs (1-3) – Advanced from a ACC caliber team to maybe a low end SEC caliber team as of late.
30. Minnesota Vikings (0-4) – It hasn’t been a fun couple of years for Donovan McNabb.
31. St. Louis Rams (0-4) – How much longer will ‘Spags hold on to his job?
32. Miami Dolphins (0-4) – I really enjoy putting them here.
Last Week: 8-8
Season Record: 27-20
Week 4 Picks
- Dallas (-2) vs. Detroit
- New Orleans (-8) vs. Jacksonville
- Philadelphia (-9) vs. San Francisco
- Washington (-2.5) vs. St. Louis
- Tennessee (PK) vs. Cleveland
- Cincinnati (+4) vs. Buffalo
- Minnesota (-3) vs. Kansas City
- Carolina (+6) vs. Chicago
- Pittsburgh (+3.5) vs. Houston
- Seattle (+6) vs. Atlanta
- New York Giants (-3) vs. Arizona
- San Diego (-7) vs. Miami
- Denver (+13) vs. Green Bay
- New England (-6) vs. Oakland
- New York Jets (+3.5) vs. Baltimore
- Tampa Bay (-10) vs. Indianapolis
The 12 pack took a beating last week as the New York Jets lost their first game of the regular season. Yet, just like the team we cover, we don’t die easy. Here are 12 predictions for Sunday night football –
1. The Baltimore Ravens are going to pick on Antonio Cromartie early and often. Wouldn’t you? He will pick up a couple of penalties and allow a big play or two, but will also come up with a big play which he couldn’t do last week. I don’t expect to see him at all on kick return.
2. Speaking of kick return, Joe McKnight will have a big night as the deep man and will have a bigger role back there moving forward even when Cromartie is 100 percent healthy.
3. I am setting the over/under at 55 yards for Shonn Greene, and I am taking the under.
4. Mark Sanchez is going to have the pass rush in his face all game and take a few sacks. However, he will also create a few big plays outside of the pocket when the play breaks down and also burn the Ravens in a few situations where they leave Santonio Holmes and Plaxico Burress one on one. He will throw for over 275 yards.
5. Ray Rice will have at least a combined 125 yards rushing and receiving and get in the end-zone once.
6. Joe Flacco will turn the football over at least once, however he will also beat the Jets down the for a touchdown pass of 40 yards or longer. The Jets will only sack him once.
7. Santonio Holmes is going to have his biggest game of the season, in both yardage and receptions. He will also score his second touchdown of the season.
8. Darrelle Revis will keep Anquan Boldin under 40 total yards receiving if he is matched up on him throughout the night.
9. Kenrick Ellis and Aaron Maybin will both be active. Nick Mangold will be a gametime decision and won’t end up playing, as the Jets smartly work to get him near 100 percent for New England next week.
10. Nick Folk will miss a field goal, he is due for one.
11. Derrick Mason will score his first touchdown of the season.
12. Am I being naive for picking the Jets to eek out a tight victory, 21-20? Maybe so. We’ll see. This won’t be a pretty game but the Jets will find a way to gut one out late.
1. Three games into the NFL season and the tickets are being punched for a Detroit Lions/Buffalo Bills Super Bowl match-up. Don’t get me wrong, Detroit is a talented team and their comeback over the Minnesota Vikings was a gutsy win to hang their hat on. Buffalo’s win over New England was even more impressive considering the way New England has handled them as of late and how they dug themselves out of a three possession hole for the second week in a row.
Yet, I have to laugh at the comments received about the New York Jets now being the third best team in the AFC East and when I hear talk of the Lions currently being a top five team in the NFL. The Bills have been down by 18 points in two straight weeks, there are plenty of flaws in their feel good story. They have found ways to win two tight games late, an admirable and important quality. Let’s see them handle being a favorite for a few weeks now. Let’s see them go on the road and take out some contenders. Let’s see them win a game when they aren’t capable of laying a 34 spot on the board. I am not buying it yet, not after 3 games.
The Lions have a beautiful thing on offense with Matthew Stafford throwing to Calvin Johnson. The comeback against Minnesota was a hell of a win, but if you haven’t noticed it, everybody is doing that this year. Again, let’s see them play as a favorite now and let’s see them stay ahead of Chicago in the standings into the second half of the year and how they handle the Packers and Saints down the stretch of their schedule. Are they a playoff contender? Sure, everybody is at this point. Are they one of the best teams in the league? I haven’t seen that yet, not after tight wins over Tampa Bay and Minnesota and beating the ACC caliber Kansas City Chiefs.
2. Nobody takes more cheap shots at the New York Giants than yours truly. I have been surrounded by a group of annoying Giants fans my whole life…otherwise known as all of my best friends. Yet, that doesn’t mean I won’t credit them for an impressive win over the Philadelphia Eagles on the road. I am aware Mike Vick didn’t play the fourth quarter but with the amount of injuries the Giants are dealing with, I am not taking anything away from them. How about North Jersey’s own Victor Cruz by the way? What a game. I am not sure who deserves their new contract less at this point Nnamdi Asomugha or Antonio Cromartie.
I do have to take time to mention what a dirtbag Antrel Rolle is on the field though. I am looking forward to Plaxico Burress giving him one of these shots on December 24th.
3. Week 5 Games to look forward:
- Pittsburgh at Houston – Very interested to see how these two AFC contenders come out in this game.
- New England at Oakland – Hoping Oakland can do to New England what they did to the Jets last weekend.
- NY Jets at Baltimore – Game of the week and I’m not even being biased.
Jets Inactives – Kenrick Ellis, Rob Turner, Nick Mangold, Emmanuel Cook, Kevin O’Connell, Bilal Powell, Logan Payne
– I feel very strongly the Jets are going to put together a statement performance today. Too many people are overestimating the Raiders. They have beat nobody of significance in the past two years. Yes, they will be feisty in the their home opener and yes the Mangold injury will hurt but in the end the Jets are a substantially better team and that will shine through.
– Considering the Raiders defensive scheme and their starting corners, I’d be very surprised if Mark Sanchez doesn’t for right around 300 yards or more. Look for a big day from Plaxico Burress, who I think the Jets will finally get involved early.
– Look for Joe McKnight and Jeremy Kerley to be involved today on offense.
– Very interested to see how the Patriots/Bills game goes today. That place is going to be rocking.
Last Week: 10-6
Season Record: 19-12
Week 3 Picks (Lines courtesy of BetUS)
- Cincinnati (-2.5) vs. San Francisco
- Buffalo (+7) vs. New England
- New Orleans (-4.5) vs. Houston
- Philadelphia (-8.5) vs. Giants
- Cleveland (-2) vs. Miami
- Tennessee (-7) vs. Denver
- Minnesota (+4.5) vs. Detroit
- Carolina (-4) vs. Jacksonville
- San Diego (-14) vs. Kansas City
- Jets (-4) vs. Oakland
- Baltimore (-6) vs. St. Louis
- Atlanta (PK) vs. Tampa Bay
- Seattle (+3.5) vs. Arizona
- Green Bay (-4.5) vs. Chicago
- Pittsburgh (-11.5) vs. Indianapolis
- Washington (+3) vs. Dallas