Turn On The Jets 12 Pack, Week 5 – Jets vs. Texans

Turn On The Jets with 12 predictions for the Jets Monday night game against the Texans

The Turn On The Jets 12 Pack is back with predictions for a game that is expected to a complete sh*t storm for the New York Jets. Seriously, can you remember a game where a higher percentage of people were 100 percent convinced the home team was going to lose by at least 3 touchdowns? Tickets are going for $15 tonight! It cost more money to watch me play Division 3 Football! (Well maybe not, but close). Anyway, on to the predictions…

1. Jeremy Kerley will lead the Jets in receptions and receiving yards. When discussing the team’s wide receivers, it is easy to lump everybody together as being awful. That simply isn’t in the case with Kerley who has made big plays whenever given the opportunity. The Jets need to give him as many touches as possible throughout the rest of the year, as both a receiver and runner.

2. Tonight will be the end of Shonn Greene’s tenure as the Jets lead back. He will have another ineffective game and Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight (let’s hope they give him a chance) will do more with their carries.

3. Tim Tebow will see his most extensive playing time of the season tonight, receiving 7-10 carries and throwing 3-5 passes.

4. Mark Sanchez will do just enough to keep his starting job for one more week, throwing for 200 yards and protecting the football. He will also complete over 50% of his passes…a shame this feels like a bold prediction.

5. Quinton Coples will record his first career sack and play his most reps of the season.

6. Matt Schaub will relentlessly pick on Kyle Wilson and Ellis Lankser, finishing with over 250 yards passing and a pair of touchdowns.

7. The Jets run defense will show better than it has in recent weeks but Arian Foster will still finish with over 90 yards rushing and a touchdown.

8. The Jets will attempt at least one special teams trick play.

9. MetLife Stadium will be 50% empty and 25% of the people in attendance will be Texans fans.

10. LaRon Landry will force another turnover.

11. It will be a one possession game at halftime.

12. The Jets will show better than many expect but ultimately don’t have enough offense to win this game, losing 27-13. Mark Sanchez will start next week but Tebow will continue to see more and more playing time.

No Huddle – Monday Night Football Preview Edition

TJ Rosenthal goes No Huddle to preview Monday Night Football

Gameday is often met with anticipation and excitement. Today however, it’s met with trepidation. 2-2, undermanned and underachieving, the Jets play host to the 4-0 Texans. Perhaps the most complete team in the NFL right now. Here is where our head is at this morning:

1 – Fire Tanny? Too Early For That, But…

This roster is somebody’s doing. The Jets are 2-2 for the time being and still in position to accomplish goals. The reality may end up showing that this team is a house of cards made from a second rate deck but now is not the time to ask for the GM’s head.

After all maybe Bilal Powell bails Mike Tannenbaum out. Or Jason Hill does. Jeff Cumberland anyone?

The Jets GM will be on the hook for this team if it crashes by Halloween, but it ain’t late October yet. There’s a time and a place for everything.

2 – Just Use Tebow Already

The Jets treated the Wildcat like an Iranian Nuke facility all Summer: Secretive yet poised to damage. A weapon to be feared by the mere though of it. In truth, the Iranians may end up with the same fate as the Jets, who to date have shown that the whole song and dance was a hoax. Our suggestion now in week 5 is, knock it off and just use the guy. Throw the ball with him, run it ten times with him. Empty the tank. Make it work. After all, Tebow was the only skill position player added this offseason. Surely there was a clear vision for him, right?

3 – Make Kerley A Weapon

The Jets are dumber than we all thought, if they think they will be able to run heavy and stay in this game. They couldn’t do that with Holmes, Keller, and even Plax and LT last year. Now they are gonna dictate terms with second and third string wideouts as decoys to keep Houston honest?

No. No chance.

Jeremy Kerley is the only speed weapon who can line up anywhere and help both short and deep. Make him a weapon or else there won’t be one threat that the Texans will have to account for. We want 15-20 targets for 11. Seriously.

4 – Met Life Stadium: Will seats be disguised as people?

We are worried that tonight will be the first night that pricey seats, PSLs, and a shaky team, will affect attendance. It’s just such a financial commitment for fans these days, how can we not understand season ticket holders selling seats when they smell a rat?

Just what the Jets needed. A national night game to show the fans true belief in the team at this point.

5 – Fine, We’ll Admit It

For the first time under Rex, we are scared. Petrified. We just can’t see how  the Jets, barring 2 special teams TDs and a lights out run defense can pull this one out. We guess there are those in Florham Park who feel the same way, and that REALLY has us worried.

Turn On The Jets Week 5 NFL Picks

The Turn On The Jets staff gives their week 5 NFL Picks

The Race for Steak continues. Note that last week’s record includes the most recent Thursday Night game –

CURRENT STANDINGS

1. Mike Donnelly (36-26-2)

2. Rob  Celletti (28-32-4)

3. Chris Celletti (25-36-3)

4. Chris Gross (25-36-3)

5. Joe Caporoso (24-37-3)

Joe Caporoso

Last Week (6-8-1)

  • Falcons (-3) vs. Redskins
  • Steelers (-3) vs. Eagles
  • Packers (-7) vs. Colts
  • Browns (+8) vs. Giants
  • Vikings (-5.5) vs Titans
  • Bengals (-3) vs. Dolphins
  • Ravens (-6) vs. Chiefs
  • Seahawks (+3) vs. Panthers
  • Bears (-4.5) vs. Jags
  • Patriots (-6.5) vs. Broncos
  • 49ers (-9.5) vs. Bills
  • Saints (-3.5) vs Chargers
  • Texans (-8.5) vs. Jets

Mike Donnelly

Last Week (8-7)

  • Was +3 vs Atl
  • Pit -3 vs Phi
  • Ind +7 vs GB
  • Cle +8.5 @ NYG
  • Ten +5.5 @ Minn
  • Cin -3 vs Mia
  • KC +6 vs Balt
  • Car -3 vs Sea
  • Jax +4.5 vs Chi
  • NE -6.5 vs Den
  • SF -9.5 vs Buff
  • NO -3.5 vs SD
  • NYJ +8.5 vs Hou

Rob Celletti

Last Week (9-5-1)

  • Falcons (-3) over Redskins
  • Steelers (-3) over Eagles
  • Colts (+7) over Packers
  • Giants (-8.5) over Browns
  • Vikings (-5.5) over Titans
  • Bengals (-3) over Dolphins
  • Ravens (-6) over Chiefs
  • Seahawks (+3) over Panthers
  • Bears (-4.5) over Jaguars
  • Broncos (+6.5) over Patriots
  • Bills (+9.5) over 49ers
  • Saints (-3.5) over Chargers
  • Jets (+8.5) over Texans

Chris Celletti

Last Week (5-9-1)

  • Falcons
  • Steelers
  • Packers
  • Giants
  • Titans
  • Bengals
  • Chiefs
  • Panthers
  • Bears
  • Pats
  • Bills
  • Saints
  • Jets

Chris Gross

Last Week (6-8-1)

  • Falcons (-3)
  • Eagles (+3)
  • Colts (+7)
  • Giants (-8)
  • Vikings (-5.5)
  • Dolphins (+3)
  • Ravens (-6.5)
  • Panthers (-3)
  • Bears (-5.5)
  • Broncos (+6.5)
  • 49ers (-9.5)
  • Saints (-3.5)
  • Jets (+8.5)

New York Jets Fact Or False: Week 5 Edition

With the first quarter of the 2012 NFL regular season in the books, the New York Jets stand at 2-2 atop the AFC East. However, anyone following this team knows that, with the way the Jets have played since week 2, there is little to no security in that position. Sure, New York is .500 and in first place in their division, but the reality of the matter is, with their 2 best players out, Mark Sanchez seemingly going in the tank, and the defense giving up yardage like it is going out of style, the Jets season seems all but lost already.

The Jets face yet another daunting task this Monday night as they host the undefeated Houston Texans, deemed by many as the best team in the league this season. Can the Jets beat Houston at home? Sure, this is the NFL where upsets happen all the time. However, this is also a team that is seemingly becoming all too familiar with losing.

The Jets are desperate for a convincing win, something they’ve had very few of over the past calendar year. Although a win will be extremely difficult to come by this Monday, New York can certainly take a step in the right direction with competitive play in which they show desire, drive, and confidence, while the offense displays ball security and the defense shows the ability to stop the run and get off the field on third downs. Still, an extrememly difficut task against a team like Houston.

So, how will the Jets fare? Is this the end of the Mark Sanchez era in New York as we know it? Will Rex Ryan’s defense get back to its old ways of dominance, or is that just a mirage at this point? And will Mike Tannenbaum’s inactivity with this roster prove to be the ultimate demise of this team? Find out all you need to know about this week’s game in our latest edition of New York Jets Fact Or False.

Houston will sack Mark Sanchez multiple times. Fact. While the Jets offensive line has been improved in pass protection over these first four games, Houston’s defense has 13 sacks in that same time span, averaging just over 3 per game. Defensive End J.J. Watt is putting together one of the greatest performances by a defensive lineman in recent memory, leading the NFL with 7.5 sacks. While San Francisco’s pass rush was certainly the best the Jets had seen up until that point last week, Houston has an abundance of pass rushers at every position. The Jets will likely slide a lot of protection toward Watt leaving players like Brian Cushing and Brooks Reed, two players who also have a history of getting to the quarterback, for single blocking.

Texans’ Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips will certainly get very creative with his blitz packages and rush schemes, something he has become notorious for since joining Houston last season. New York will do their best to keep Sanchez upright, however expect Watt, Cushing, and Reed to all combine for anywhere between 3-4 sacks.

The Jets will finally run the ball effectively. Fact. This is a very bold prediction here, considering how poor New York’s rushing offense has been. Houston’s run defense ranks 11th in the NFL, allowing just over 90 yards per contest. However, the Texans gave up 144 yards on the ground last week to Chris Johnson, who up until that point, was the only starting running back in the league averaging less YPC than Shonn Greene with 1.4. Against the Texans, however, Johnson posted a season high 5.6 YPC.

Yes, Johnson is much more physically gifted than Greene, and unlike the Jets starter, runs with some form of identity. However, if Johnson can make somewhat of a revival, there is no reason the Jets entire rushing attack cannot as well. The key for Tony Sparano will be to identify the holes and weaknesses in Houston’s front seven, something that will certainly be no walk in the park. However, with the right amount of Greene, complemented with Bilal Powell and possibly Joe McKnight, coupled with a coherent Tim Tebow game plan, there is no reason the Jets cannot at least make some sort of improvement in the run game this week. Will it need to be done with gimmick plays and creative formations? Absolutely. But, with the personnel left on this offense, that will likely be the only way to get things materialized from here on out.

Aarian Foster will run for 100+ Yards. False. Yes, another bold prediction considering how bad the Jets run defense has looked recently. However, with Sione Pouha likely out this week, Kenrick Ellis will be receiving most of the reps at Nose Tackle, which will prove to be a blessing in disguise for this defense. Ellis has been the best defensive lineman for the Jets thus far this season. His ability to take on double teams, and occupy two blockers, is head and shoulders above what Pouha’s is right now. This will allow for less free shots at the linebackers, who will be more free to roam the field and make plays. Quinton Coples will likely see more reps as an every down player, as his workload has been increasing each week, and that will give the Jets much more athleticism and explosion up front. While Houston will likely rack up over 100 yards on the ground collectively, it will likely be through a committee effort. Plus, the Jets couldn’t possibly miss 17 tackles again…right?

The Jets pass rush will finally show some signs of life this week. Fact. By now, you’ve realized this piece is full of bold predictions. However, considering how dead the Jets pass rush has been throughout the first 4 games, 2 sacks and 3 QB hits would be considered a revival. Throughout our film breakdowns, it has become extremely apparent that the Jets’ pass rushing problems stem, not from lack of effort or technique, but mostly lack of speed from the starters. Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas, despite each recording a sack last week, are simply too slow to get to the quarterback at this point in their careers. DeMario Davis and Quinton Coples are beginning to see extended reps in passing situations, something that will prove to be brilliant as the season progresses. Each has tremendous speed, and Coples is undoubtedly the most talented lineman on the team, just still a bit raw. Kenrick Ellis gets an excellent push up the middle in his pass rush, which will ultimately help flush Matt Schaub out of the pocket, hopefully into an edge player. If Aaron Maybin can somehow develop a few pass rush moves, the Jets’ rush may not be as dormant anymore.

Houston’s Brian Cushing will have an excellent performance in his Homecoming game on Monday Night Football. Fact. Former AP Rookie of the Year Brian Cushing makes his return home to North Jersey this Monday night. A graduate of Bergen Catholic High School, Cushing won a state championship in the very same complex, at the old Giant Stadium, as a high school senior. Now, Cushing comes back to the Meadowlands as Houston’s 2012 leading tackler.

While he will surely be fired up for this game, in which he takes on former college teammate Mark Sanchez, Cushing is physically a mismatch for the Jets offense. Possessing great speed, athleticism, and tenacity from the inside, Cushing’s versatility makes him a dangerous weapon for Wade Phillips. As previously noted, New York will likely pay a lot of attention to J.J. Watt, leaving Cushing to roam the field, and make plays, exactly what he does best. Expect a stat line close to 10 tackles, 1 sack, and a tackle for loss for the former BC Crusader.

This will be Mark Sanchez’s last game as the starting Quarterback of the New York Jets. False. While the clock certainly seems to be ticking on Sanchez, as many are convinced it is not a matter of if but when he will be replaced by Tim Tebow, don’t expect a decision to come after this game. Even if Sanchez plays poorly again, something that could very well happen against this defense, New York is simply not ready for a change, because they know like everyone else, once they go to Tebow, there is no turning back.

Regardless of his performance, Sanchez will be given amnesty due to the fact that he has had to face arguably the two best defenses in the NFL in consecutive weeks. However, if his poor play continues into the Colts game, not only will the fans and Woody Johnson call for Tebow to take the reigns, Rex Ryan and the coaching staff likely will as well.

Turn On The Jets – NFL Week 5 Best Bets

Chris Celletti with his Best Bets for week 5 of the NFL Season

Eat. Drink. Football. Gamble. America. Make sure to check out our deal this weekend courtesy of Night Out. $20 for 20 wings and 2 pitchers of beer.

Week 4 Record 1-2

Season Record: 4-7-1

Damn you Larry Tynes! Once again, never bet on your crosstown rival. It just never works.

So I watched the Presidential Debate on Thursday night. It was horrible television, as most debates are. Everybody was ripping moderator Jim Lehrer for not taking control, but why even have a moderator on these things? Neither candidate follows the format whatsoever. This is how a presidential debate generally goes:

Candidate 1: “…And that’s how I plan on putting Americans back to work!”

Moderator: “Candidate 2, can you directly respond to Candidate 1’s plan to add jobs to the economy?”

Candidate 2: “Well, one thing I agree on with my opponent is that our military must remain the strongest in the world.”

These guys aren’t debating crap. They’re simply spewing pre-canned responses of their positions regardless of what the other says or what they were actually asked by the useless moderator. Unless you’re Mitt Romney, who essentially lied for 90 minutes and was deemed the run away winner. Only in American politics.

But the real reason I bring this up was that I saw a freakish parallel between the Presidential race – specifically the debate and the reaction to it – and the NFL. After the debate, it was widely opined that Romney had won. This was a shock to most people. Most expected President Obama to whitewash Romney. After the debate, there was incredible overreaction on both sides…just like we see each and every week in the NFL. It was like if the Colts beat the Packers this week. Massive underdogs, the Colts would be riding an incredible wave of high after beating an incumbent great NFL team. And good for them if they do, they should feel great about themselves. But you know if that happens, you’ll see Peter King dedicate four pages of his column on how sneaky-good the Colts are, how Andrew Luck is already a top-10 quarterback in the NFL and headed for Canton and how brilliantly the Colts are run from an organizational standpoint. And then you’ll flip on ESPN and Mark Schlereth will be babbling inanities like “The Packers are in trouble,” or “I’m seeing a shift in Aaron Rodgers that tells me he just isn’t the same guy he once was.”

Last night after the debate, Chris Matthews on MSNBC had me thinking I was watching Jets’ Post Game Live on SNY. He was totally distraught, yelling into the camera things like “What was he (Obama) doing out there!? Who was that guy!?” You can pretty much tune into SNY after every Jet game and get the same thing from Ray Lucas talking about Mark Sanchez. And of course Romney supporters are already pouring their scotch in anticipation of a November MittFest. It was just one good night for Romney, one bad one for Obama, and there’s so much that can and will happen in the time being. But you know, we can’t be rational about things like politics and sports.

Point of this all is, can we somehow find a way to have Mike Francesa moderate the next debate? Please?

Anyway, I’m supposed to make some picks or something in this column, so here we go:

Green Bay -7 at Colts

Ha! See what I did there? But no, really. Pack are due for a big win.

Bills +9.5 at 49ers

I in no way think the Bills are heading to the west coast and beating the Niners, but I think they’ll put up a much better fight than the Jets or Obama did (back to the politics for a second: who coached Obama before that debate, Brian Schottenheimer? “Hey Barry, here’s what you DON’T do: mention that 47% thing. Way too risky. Run the ball.”) Even if it’s a 14 point game late, I could see a late touchdown and a backdoor cover for the Bills.

Saints -4 vs. Chargers

It’s gonna be a silly high scoring game, but I think it’s about time the Saints won a darn football game. Back home at the dome, I think they’ll finally get on the board, and by a touchdown at least.

Bonus Non-Football Bet of the Week (Season Record 3-1)

We’re two for our last two in the English Premier League, so why mess with a broken thing? Let’s make it tiny bit harder and go with a little two-game parlay, Fulham (+165) over Southampton and Everton (+100) over Wigan.

New York Jets: Sanchez’s Last Stand

Mark Sanchez is running out of opportunities as the New York Jets starting quarterback

I wonder if Mark Sanchez longingly studies the depth chart of the quarterbacks drafted in the same year as him or the years right around him. Does he complain to Eva Longoria about Joe Flacco handing the football to Ray Rice and throwing the ball as far as he can to Torrey Smith while Anquan Boldin cleans up underneath? Does he shake at his head at Sportscenter highlights of Calvin Johnson leaping 18 feet in the air to pull down a Matthew Stafford pass? Does he go home in the off-season sit by the beach and imagine what it would be line up under center, look to his left and see Julio Jones, look to his right and see Roddy White and then look back to his left to see Tony Gonzalez. Does he take out the calculator and try to figure out how the small market Tampa Bay Bucs can provide Vincent Jackson and Doug Martin to Josh Freeman? He’d be crazy not to, right?

Nobody is saying that Mark Sanchez would be the same quarterback as Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, or Matthew Stafford in the same situation. You might have argued that in 2010 when Sanchez led a 11-5 team to the AFC Championship Game and seemed to be growing as he outplayed Tom Brady in his own building in the playoffs. Those days are long gone now. Gone like the days when the New York Jets had one of the league’s best offensive lines, a rushing attack that could average more than 2.8 yards per carry and wide receivers who didn’t belong on a UFL roster.

Even a self-professed Sanchez Apologist has to admit there has been a clear regression in his play. Stats don’t need to tell the story because the game film does. In 2011, we saw the same inconsistencies we saw from Sanchez in 2010 except he didn’t rally in a big spot the way he traditionally did. He tanked in the team’s three biggest games of the season and didn’t offer a signature win all year.

It was also clear by the end of the season Sanchez’s supporting cast needed a tune up. The Jets were no longer a feared rushing attack and they didn’t have enough weapons in the passing game. Their once dominant offensive line had sunk to mediocre. Financially, the Jets doubled down on Sanchez by guaranteeing his money the next two years and proclaiming him their franchise quarterback. The next logical step was improving the rest of the offense to make sure that investment was a wise one.

We all know what happened. The Jets overvalued their own talent, believing Shonn Greene was a 1,500 yard back, Wayne Hunter and Matt Slauson would improve, and that Santonio Holmes could carry an inexperienced group of receivers. The only addition was Tim Tebow. We were given a cute story about how Mike Tannenbaum and Rex Ryan discussed the acquisition in an airport , realizing it made perfect sense with Tony Sparano now the offensive coordinator. Tebow would fill the talent gaps because the Jets had a unique plan to mix him into their offense which would provide a spark to both their running and passing game.

It has been pretty apparent through four games that it was a line of bullshit. The Jets coaching staff is completely clueless when it comes to mixing Tebow into their offense, failing to even take advantage of him in obvious situations, like 3rd and short. With each passing week, the Tebow acquisition is looking more and more like a 100% money-grab business decision. The reports are already surfacing now about Jets owner Woody Johnson pushing for Tebow in the starting line-up and now it seems like only a matter of time until #15 is under center full time.

Where does all this leave Sanchez? The guy who started out the season on fire for 5 quarters, followed it with 6 abysmal quarters, rallied late against Miami and then bottomed out against San Francisco. It leaves him facing the league’s best team in primetime with the worst collection of skill position players in the NFL, no seriously. Go bring up every depth chart in the NFL and tell me who has a worst group of running backs than Shonn Greene, Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight. Go bring up every depth chart in the NFL and tell me who has a worst group of wide receivers than Jeremy Kerley, Stephen Hill, Chaz Schilens, and Clyde Gates. There isn’t a worst starting tight end in the NFL than Jeff Cumberland. There isn’t a worst fullback in the NFL than John Conner.

(For the record, Jeremy Kerley is a very talented slot receiver. He is seriously miscast as a number one receiver at this point of his career though. Stephen Hill has a very high ceiling as a big play wideout but right now he is a rookie from a triple-option college offense)

It almost seems like Mike Tannenbaum is setting Sanchez up to fail…almost. I don’t buy into the conspiracy theories, I just think Tannenbaum is incompetent as a talent evaluator. Sanchez has been dealt a crap hand and needs to find a way to make it work. He needs to hold Tebow off for one more week, so he can remain under center for the Jets final three games before the bye where they have a puncher’s chance of going 2-1 to hit the halfway mark at 4-4.

If Sanchez duplicates his performance against San Francisco on Monday night, how could you not support calls for him to be benched? He must protect the football. He must be more accurate. He must show command of the offense. He doesn’t need to pull the upset off, he just needs to keep the Jets competitive against the league’s best team with his excessively weak supporting cast. It is sad expectations but they are realistic.

Why show any hesitance in handing the team off to Tebow? The reason is a 8-8 season from Tebow will be considered magical and create a media firestorm, the type of media firestorm that will encourage Woody Johnson to bring him back as the team’s starter next year. Where I believe you will be looking at another 8-8 type season. I will take Tebow more seriously as a starting quarterback than Sanchez when he shows he can beat New England, not lose by 30 points. I will take Tebow more seriously as a starting quarterback when he can win double digit games in a season and a road playoff game. If he does that as a starter for the Jets this year, then by all means make him your long term starting quarterback.

Ultimately, I’m still of the belief that if Sanchez is surrounded with a competent supporting cast that the Jets ceiling remains higher than it would with Tebow running a read-option offense. With no supporting cast? Maybe Tebow is a better option cause of his diverse skill set but knowing the history of this franchise, there is a reasonable fear the Jets will double down on Tebow if he is just decent the rest of 2012 dooming themselves to a few more years of mediocrity. I could see myself writing the same article at this time next year when the Jets are 1-3 because they didn’t upgrade the offense around Tebow and thought he could just carry it on his own.

Mike Tannenbaum’s recent failings as a General Manager and his own inconsistencies have pushed Mark Sanchez to the brink of his career as the New York Jets starting quarterback. Can he get off the mat one last time?

Turn On The Jets Week 5 Fantasy Football Preview

Mike Donnelly with his weekly fantasy football preview. Who should you bench and start?

This has been a rough NFL week for me. The Jets debacle speaks for itself. But almost as importantly, I lost in all three of my fantasy leagues this week due to stink bomb performances from a combination of Dennis Pitta, Percy Harvin, Darren McFadden, and Mikel Leshoure. All of these things added up put me in quite a foul football mood. In honor of that I’m going to list all the players I dislike for this week. It’s all negativity, all the time this week!

QB- Ben Roethlisberger vs. Phi – Yes, the Iggles are coming off a big win and are set up for a letdown performance, while Big Ben is coming off a bye. I don’t think it matters, because the Steelers are likely getting Rashard Mendenhall back and are going to look to establish some semblance of a running game, starting this week.

Prognosis: Borderline start in 12-team leagues.

QB- Michael Vick @ Pitt – I wasn’t kidding when I said I think the Eagles are primed for a letdown game this week against a rested Steelers defense. Could be a rough one for the Dog Murderer.

Prognosis: Wouldn’t start in a 12-team league.

QB- Kevin Kolb @ StL – I certainly hope you aren’t relying on Kevin Kolb, but if your starting QB is on a bye this week and you’re weak at backup, I could see the thought process. Unfortunately, these Thursday games have not gone too well for offenses, especially road teams, except for Eli throttling Carolina of course. This isn’t quite breaking news, but Kolb is no Eli, and St. Louis has a tough defense.

Prognosis: Would rather take a shot on Tannehill or Matt Hasselbeck.

RB- Alfred Morris vs. Atl – I’ve seen him ranked as an RB1 this week, and I just don’t see it. This game very well could turn into a shootout, and the running opportunities just may not be there for Alf this week.

Prognosis: Low-level RB2 this week.

RB- Stevan Ridley vs. Den – As a Ridley owner in all my league, this one pains me. Brady vs. Peyton could easily turn into a shootout, and when the Pats go to their no huddle, up-temp attack, they like to get Danny Woodhead in there, so unless Ridley gets a TD, the yardage total may leave you disappointed.

Prognosis: Slightly behind Alfred Morris.

RB- Ryan Williams @StL – Another Thursday Nighter. Everyone is pumped he’s going to be getting all the carries in Arizona now that Beanie Wells is hurt, but the fact is Arizona just stinks at running the ball for whatever reason (TERRIBLE O-LINE. That’s the reason). I see him as worth a shot as a flex play, but not the RB2 slam dunk most have him as.

Prognosis: RB3 or Flex option.

RB- Benjarvus Green-Ellis vs. Mia – Miami has a very stout run defense, and as I’ve said all season, BJGE just isn’t that good of a player.

Prognosis: Low-level RB3 or Flex.

RB- Shonn Greene vs. Hou – Sigh.

Prognosis: Again.. Sigh..

WR- Demaryius Thomas @ NE – In general, I love Demaryius this year. But this week against Belichick and the Patriots, I can see him being swarmed and Peyton Manning relying on the underneath stuff to Decker and Tamme all day. Obviously he’s worth starting, just keep the expectations in check.

Prognosis: More of a WR2 than an elite option.

WR- Brandon Lloyd vs. Den – Mr. Lloyd, meet Champ. Keep expectations in check, even though I would never recommend benching Tom Brady’s #1 wide receiver.

Prognosis: Low-level WR2 option.

WR- Pierre Garcon vs. Atl – Apparently Garcon isn’t going to be healthy for a few more weeks still, so even with him playing he may not get the amount of snaps necessary to make a big impact. And sadly, I don’t think we can rely on fumble recovery touchdowns every week.

Prognosis: WR3 or Flex option.

WR- Mike Wallace vs. Phi – Nnamdi Asomugha and the Eagles defense are fully aware of where Mike Wallace will be at all times. I wouldn’t expect a monster performance at all this week, especially since I think the Steelers will go out of their way to establish a run game.

Prognosis: Low-level WR2 or Flex option.

WR- James Jones @ Ind – Here is some friendly advice you should never forget: Do. Not. Trust. James. Jones. Ever. Every time he makes you think it’s safe to start him, he throws up a stat line along the lines of 2 catches/13 yards/1 fumble lost.

Prognosis: Never trust James Jones.

TE- Vernon Davis vs. Buff – The 49ers are going to run the BIlls over — literally. They’re going to run left, run up the middle, and run right. Then they’re going to do it again. And again. Davis will have his chances, but I don’t see him having a monster game.

Prognosis: Low-level TE1, not top 5.

TE- Greg Olsen vs. Sea – Seattle has a tough defense, and you better believe Olsen is going to be keyed on all day. This could be the week Carolina wakes up their sleeping run game as well.

Prognosis: TE2 option, or low-level Flex.

Two Weeks In The Life Of The New York Jets

TJ Rosenthal with a look at two weeks in the life of the New York Jets

“I read the news today oh boy..” are the epic words that kick off the Beatles timeless 1967 song “A Day In The Life.” The song’s story, which told the tale of the routines that take place during a typical person’s twenty four cycle, meets a monstrous crashing orchestral cresendo of mayhem during the songs middle. A sound that may best describe the entire past two weeks in the life of the New York Jets. A team that despite being in a three way tie for first place, have gone helmet to helmet lately, with the explosive speed of their own headline grabbing existence

Here’s a look back:

Sept 21: LB Bart Scott has to be held back from Jets Confidential reporter Dan Leberfeld, who took a photo of Scott with a female reporter. Scott, who has boycotted the press for labeling the Jets a circus act prior to training camp, took issue with the photo.

Sept 22: Longtime Jet LB Bryan Thomas is released with the notion that he will be re- signed the following Monday. Thomas is insulted, but remains professional about it.

Sept 23: Jets win a wild 23-20 OT thriller at Miami but Darrelle Revis leaves the game with what many fear is a season ending ACL injury. The game is as crazy as the Jets season has been to date. A stalled offense, an inability to slow down a rookie QB late in the game, and a missed FG by trusted Dolphins K Dan Carpenter leave the Jets just enough room to escape. The win is overshadowed by gloom over the impending doom  of losing the NFL ‘s top corner.

Sept 24: Jets officially announce that Revis is out for the season with a torn ACL in his left knee. Thomas is re-signed, as originally planned by the club.

Sept 26: With Revis out, Jets move RB/KR Joe McKnight to CB. McKnight tells the media he will interpret the switch to defense as a sign that he failed as a RB.

Sept 28: Jets announce they won’t put Revis on season ending IR, in order to hold out for the possibility that he could be back in time for the Super Bowl. Provided the Jets get there and that Revis is somehow up to speed by then.

Sept 30: 49ers blow out the Jets 34-0 at home in a game that the wildcat, the Jets secret summer formation, is used against them. Tim Tebow’s first complete pass goes to TE Dedrick Epps, who then fumbles, gets injured on the play, and is released on Monday. Worse, Santonio Holmes also goes down after a catch on a play that becomes a 51 yard fumble recovery for TD for the Niner defense.

Oct 1: One day after the embarassment at Met Life, Owner Woody Johnson tells Bloomberg TV that if it came down to the Jets having a winning season and Mitt Romney winning the White House “you always have to put your country first.” Johnson is the chairman of Romney’s campaign in New York.

Oct 2: ESPN reports that two people close to Johnson speculate that the owner will push his football people to start Tim Tebow at QB. The sources are, and continue to be unnamed. This on the same day that Johnson’s wife Suzanne unveils her new NFL womens apparel at a Gala event in New York City atended by Mark Sanchez.

Oct 3: A busy day: Holmes, the only proven playmaker the Jets have on offense, is ruled out for the season with a Lisfranc injury to his foot. WR Jason Hill, who as a Jaguar in 2011 called the Jets “overhyped” prior to their matchup with Gang Green, is signed to fill the void. 49ers DB Carlos Rogers tells Sirius XM radio that the Jets defense essentially quit days prior. A charge that Rex Ryan defended by saying his unit was tired by the fourth quarter. Legendary Jets Superfan Fireman Ed calls Holmes “a selfish bastard” on twitter, adding “let’s see how Jets do without the ME guy” who caught 9 balls for 147 yards in saving his team two weeks back. Romney fares well in his first debate against President Obama in Denver, Colorado. Tebow’s old stomping grounds.

Oct 4: Starters WR Stephen Hill and TE Dustin Keller do not practice again, leaving the Jets in danger of rolling out a starting corps of journeyman Chaz Schilens, Jeremy Kerley, and backup TE Jeff Cumberland, to take on the undefeated Houston Texans on Monday Night Football Oct 8. Ryan notes that Sanchez throws just one incompletion at practice earlier.

Now, we ask any team on Earth, to try and top that timeline given the window of days within which all of those events took place. As the late Clash frontman Joe Strummer once plainly and famously said, “the future is unwritten.” God only knows what’s in store next for the ever changing 2012 Jets.

Turn On The Jets Week 5 Roundtable – Jets vs. Texans Match-Ups

The TOJ staff discusses what match-up they are most looking forward to in Jets/Texans

Joe Caporoso – Smart Football vs. Making Money – If the New York Jets are smart they will run a crafty offensive game plan that utilizes trick plays, occasional Tebow use and anything else to avoid playing the Houston defense straight up. If they are stupid and looking to shatter what little confidence Mark Sanchez has left, they will run a standard game plan, hand the ball to Shonn Greene 15 times and drop Sanchez back while he waits for receivers like Clyde Gates to get open. In that scenario, Sanchez is obviously going to struggle, leading to him being benched for next week’s “easy” game against Colts and the ushering in of the Tebow era. We are already hearing chatter about owner Woody Johnson pushing for him to play as it seems the Jets care more about being a money making gimmick than building a successful football team.

Tebow has value on this team, as a runner with occasional passes mixed in. As a full time starting quarterback for the long term? Absolutely not.

Chris Gross – The Jets Run Defense vs. Houston’s Running Attack – New York is coming off their most embarrassing defensive performance in the Rex Ryan era, having allowed 245 yards rushing to 9 different ball carriers in their home blowout to the San Francisco 49ers. For a team that was once proud of stout defense, the Jets seem to have lost their roots. However, after extensive film review, many of New York’s defensive woes are fixable. With the 9th ranked rushing offense coming to town this Monday night, it will be very interesting to see how this unit responds after such a disappointing performance. Will they go in the tank and continue to be pushed around by opposing offenses week in and week out? Or will they find that notorious swagger that propelled them to two consecutive AFC Championship games just a couple seasons ago, by shutting down the two headed monster of Arian Foster and Ben Tate? Monday night will tell us a lot about where this team is headed for the remainder of this season.

Chris Celletti – Matchup: Jets’ run defense vs. Arian Foster/Ben Tate. Rex Ryan’s defense has been completely torn apart so far in 2012, and surprisingly it’s the run defense specifically that has been putrid. The Jets’ have been exposed as an aging,  slow and poor-tackling defense, which does not bode well when you’re trying to stop your opponents’ rushing attacks. On Monday night, the Jets have no chance to beat the Texans if Arian Foster and Ben Tate run wild. If Houston controls field position and time of possession, do you expect the Jets’ offense to do anything positive against Houston’s tough defense, having limited possessions and bad field position? The only way the Jets win is if they’re the ones who can limit Houston’s possessions and win the field position battle. That starts with stopping the ground game, a very tall order for this current Jets’ defense. If Foster has a big day, the Jets will be 2-3 and on the verge of an early season meltdown.

TJ Rosenthal – The matchup we anticipate the most is Mark Sanchez going against the crowd, his own inner demons, and the Texans. All with limited weaponry to aid him. Can Sanchez somehow keep his cool, avoid mistakes and moping, and save his job? After all, we hear the owner, a huge Romney fan by the way, bigger than he is a Jet fan, is rumored to be pushing for Tebow to take his job. If things crash Monday for 6, there will be a new pilot sooner rather than later. Right or wrong, that’s where the Jets are at this moment.

Rob Celletti – Matchup? Do the Jets match up anywhere on the field with the Houston Texans? This game barely feels like a fair fight. The Texans sport an elite rushing attack; the Jets’ answer is the second-worst run defense in the league. Calling the Jet offense anemic would be a compliment; actually, calling it an “offense” is a compliment. Meanwhile, the Texans’ defense is downright ferocious.

So what matchup am I looking forward to this week? Mark Sanchez vs. the bloodthirsty MetLife Stadium crowd? Rex Ryan vs. heartburn? Actually, I’m looking forward to seeing how Bob Malone does. Seriously. Sort of.  The recipe for a major upset in the NFL usually involves most, if not all of the following: mistake-free football, taking advantage of good starting field position, and scores from unexpected places. The Jets’ special teams is the one part of their game that hasn’t been lambasted for the last 10 days, and there’s a reason for that: the unit is capable and well-coached. The only way the Jets are competitive in this game is if they get an otherworldly special teams performance, coupled with some timely (and of course highly unlikely) defensive stops.

New York Jets Defensive Film Breakdown: Week 4

Chris Gross breaks down the New York Jets defensive film against the San Francisco 49ers

The New York Jets 34-0 loss to the San Francisco 49ers this past week was undoubtedly one of the worst performances in the Rex Ryan era. New York’s brash head coach, the self proclaimed “best defensive mind in football,” watched helplessly from the sidelines as his unit was gashed for 245 yards by Frank Gore and company. The 49ers did to the Jets what the Jets wish they could do to every team on their schedule. They effectively ran the ball with a surplus of ball carriers – 9 to be exact – including an excellent demonstration of how to run the Wildcat, something the Jets were supposed to threaten the league with this season. 49ers backup quarterback Colin Kaepernick rushed for 50 yards on 5 carries, including a 7 yard touchdown run in the second quarter. Jim Harbaugh beat Rex Ryan at his own game, in dominating fashion.

But where did New York go wrong? What happened to a defense that has had great success in the past, and was regarded as one of the league’s best heading into week 1? A combination of poor technique, lack of speed, abysmal execution, and apparent conditioning issues all contributed to the Jets being laughed off the field in their own stadium. For our fourth edition of this column, we’ll once again start from the front and work our way back to dissect exactly what is wrong with the Jets defense.

Defensive Line – 

Muhammad Wilkerson – Wilkerson has been horribly inconsistent all season long, and that did not change this past week against San Francisco. Mo was relatively quiet all game, however he was going up against one of the best Offensive Tackles in the NFL in Joe Staley. Still, if Wilkerson wants to be regarded as one of the upper tier defensive lineman in this league, he will need to begin to prove he can compete with the elite offensive lineman.

What really stood out in terms of Wilkerson’s role from Sunday was how much he was moved around the defensive line. On passing situations, he was frequently lined up at the nose, with players like Mike DeVito and Quinton Coples lined up at the tackle and end positions. While Wilkerson is certainly versatile enough to play just about any position on the defensive line, he is best coming off of the edge as a pass rusher, rather than up the middle. For a defense that’s edge rush is virtually non-existent, it seems a bit curious that Wilkerson would be placed at the nose in those situations. Certainly, several NFL defenses have personnel packages designed specifically for passing situations, where they will line defensive ends up on the inside to increase the athleticism of the entire front, however the presence of Mike DeVito in these situations contradicts that due to how limited he is in rushing the passer.

Wilkerson’s natural abilities, combined with some recent poor performances by the other players on the defensive front, might be a reason for his expanded responsibilities, which could be a primary cause for his inconsistencies. As a second year player, it is important to get comfortable in one role, before taking on multiple roles. The Jets seemingly want to give Wilkerson a little taste of everything, in terms of alignment on the defensive line, so he may be struggling to find a rhythm.

Sione Pouha – Pouha continues to struggle since his return at Pittsburgh in week 2. He shows virtually no explosion off the ball, and can absolutely not take on a double team like he has done in the past. Against San Francisco, he was repeatedly driven off the ball, creating a number of problems for the Jets defense.

First, just the ground he is giving up is creating ample running room at the first level, something that causes serious problems for the Jets’ rather slow linebacker corps. Second, the ease at which he is being blocked allows for more single blocking rather than double teams. What this means is that, rather than occupying two blockers like he has in the past, Pouha is now getting chipped by one lineman, while another takes over the drive block, allowing the would-be double teamer to get a clear lane to the second level and seal the linebackers, creating running lanes all over the field.

It is clear that Pouha is not himself. Whether it is due to injury or age, he has become a serious liability for New York. He has never been great at rushing the passer, so combine his lack of ability in that area with his newly found struggles against the run, and he is ultimately useless to this defense. It is simply a matter of time before Kenrick Ellis replaces Pouha as the full time starter at NT this season.

Mike DeVito – No surprises on DeVito’s performance. Another average day in run defense, coupled with a disappearing act when it came to rushing the passer. DeVito is a very solid role player, and can be very effective as a reserve player, coming in fresh in run situations to clog gaps and occupy blockers. However, the Jets are seriously reaching with the every down role they currently have him in. Quinton Coples has proved to be effective against the run in the limited reps he has had so far this season, and inserting him as the starter in place of DeVito would help this line tremendously. DeVito certainly still holds value on this team, as a veteran leader who will give the team everything he has in any capacity. DeVito certainly does not get worse each week, but he also does not get better. At some point, New York needs to go with the youngster with tremendous upside and let him grow naturally, with DeVito serving in a reserve/mentor type role.

Quinton Coples – Coples likely saw more reps this past week than he has all year and his rate of growth from rep to rep was highly notable. Early in the game, Coples played rather familiarly in terms of his technique and execution. He began the game as a mismatch on inside stunts, as he has been all year due to his superior athleticism against opposing interior lineman. He did, however, struggle to use his hands, something that would make him a nightmare to opposing lineman because of his tremendous length. On a few particular plays, after showing great burst off the line, Coples would allow Staley and other 49ers lineman to get into him, rendering him completely useless with no counter move.

However, during the second half, Coples corrected this error, and the results were obvious. He became very violent with his hands, striking the opposing lineman quickly right out of his initial burst. What this allows defensive lineman to do is to dictate their own actions on that particular play. Coples repeatedly executed text book stack and shed technique as he would engage the lineman, occupy his gap responsibility, then shed the blocker and make the play. By my count, the improved technique resulted in Coples obtaining two tackles for loss, and multiple QB pressures.

Coples rate of growth from the first quarter to the fourth was the most encouraging aspect of the defensive performance on Sunday. With more reps, you can see him becoming more familiar with his opponents and more comfortable with his role within the defensive scheme. His ability to fix his mistakes within a game is a sign of coachability and attention to detail, part of the little things that will allow him to take his vast potential beyond its limit. Consistency will be key for him moving forward, assuming he will get the extended reps that he deserves.

Kenrick Ellis – Ellis continued to impress against San Francisco. Unlike Pouha, he is stellar against the double team, and is clearly a natural fit at the Nose Tackle position. He plays with amazing leverage, which as previously noted, is deadly when combined with his strength and athleticism. He simply cannot be blocked with one man, something that benefits not only the remaining defensive line, but the entire run defense, as it allows for the linebackers to run free after the ball carrier.

The only poor play Ellis had was late in the game. In the 4th quarter, Ellis was lined up as a 3-technique on the outside shade of the guard, where he was double teamed (by the guard and Joe Staley) and driven about 5 yards off the ball. However, at that point in the game, it is doubtful that even the best defensive linemen in the league would be able to withstand such a double team. Ellis, like Coples, needs to be the primary guy for New York, whether Pouha is healthy or not. He is a natural run stuffer, gets much more of a push in his pass rush, plays with an edge that is necessary for the position, and most importantly, is consistent week in and week out.

Aaron Maybin – Another quiet day for Maybin in what is turning out to be a very disappointing season for a player that led this team with 6 sacks just a season ago. Maybin continues to simply run up the field with no regard for where the quarterback actually is. The league has seemingly caught up to his tactics, as displayed again this past Sunday. Numerous times, Staley and the rest of the 49ers offensive line could allow Maybin to run by them, like he always does, and simply ride him past the quarterback, making him virtually useless.

Maybin did have a nice play on his sole tackle of the day, in which he strung out a sweep and made a leg swipe tackle. Maybin has been very disappointing, proving he is not working to add any type of pass rush moves. However, the true disappointment here is Karl Dunbar. Where on earth is the coaching for a player like this? Perhaps Dunbar is attempting to coach Maybin on these issues, but he is being insubordinate. If that is the case, there is no way he should even step on the field. Whatever it is, it needs to be fixed, or Maybin will undoubtedly finish without a single sack this season, and likely run his way right out of the league.

Calvin Pace – Pace, again, proved to be the most fundamentally sound of anyone in the front seven. However, Pace, again, proved to be too slow to do anything truly effective with that technique, other than his single sack of Alex Smith in the first half. While he is solid against the run, setting the edge, allowing virtually nothing to get outside of him, Pace is almost useless in the passing game at this point in his career. He has very little burst left in his pass rush, and continues to struggle in coverage. Still, he plays with the most confidence out of anyone in the front seven, and should continue to start due to the fact that, despite his flaws, he is still head and shoulders above the next player at his position.

Linebackers – The Linebackers had some serious issues this week. Both Bart Scott and Davis Harris had far too many missed tackles as a result of poor technique, poor pursuit angles, and improperly taking on lead blocks. Too often did each of them take on the fullback or wrapping offensive lineman with the wrong shoulder, creating a crease for the back to get through. There were countless plays that both Harris and Scott should have made for 0-2 yard gains that turned into 5-7 yard gains as a result of this poor technique. Take a look below.
Here, Bart Scott over ran the play in his pursuit, causing him to attempt to adjust back to Hunter and make an arm tackle, which Hunter would run through with ease. A proper pursuit angle would have stopped Hunter at about the 32 yard line.
Here, David Harris seems to be demonstrating exactly how not to tackle. His head is down and his feet are not underneath him, allowing Gore to run past him with ease. Again, a gain of about a yard turns into 6. Crucial mistakes that were made all game and certainly were a key factor to the 49ers 245 yard rushing performance.
DeMario Davis finally saw extended reps on third down as pass rushing outside linebacker, with a bit of coverage responsibilities sprinkled in. He was ineffective as a pass rusher, but did nothing to hurt the team in coverage.
Secondary – LaRon Landry and Yeremiah Bell were relatively solid, however Landry did get beat a few times by Tight End Vernon Davis.
Antonio Cromartie was very solid filling in as the number one cornerback with Darrelle Revis out, despite giving up one medium range pass, that looked to be more of a result of zone coverage, rather than Cromartie getting beat.
Kyle Wilson will likely try to forget this performance, despite his antics throughout the game of celebrating overthrown wide receivers who were wide open as a result of beating the former first rounder out of Boise State in coverage. Wilson has been playing like a fourth round pick, rather than a first rounder so far this season, and that only became more apparent this past week.
What is really troubling is his lack of awareness. Early in the game, the outside and slot receivers ran crossing routes, with Wilson’s man running an out in the flat, and the inside receiver, seemingly belonging to Bart Scott, running deep. In what one would expect him to do, Scott switches to the receiver in the flat, while Wilson watches the inside man run right past him for a 26 yard completion.
At the top of the screen, you will notice Scott taking the receiver in the flat, with Wilson about five yards behind him realizing that he missed his assignment, Mario Manningham, who is wide open at the 42 yard line.
Wilson also joined the party of missed tackles on Sunday, with this horrible effort on Manningham’s 28 yard End Around.
Other than the lack of execution for the better part of 60 minutes on Sunday, what is very worrisome about this defense is what seems to be a lack of preparation. When San Francisco came out in the Wildcat, the formation the Jets were supposed to be specialists in, the defense was frantically screaming and adjusting their alignment as if they had never seen the formation before. One would think that a team that has been exposed to a formation in practice would have no problem defending it.
New York also showed absolutely no concept of assignment when San Francisco ran the option. On the first option play that brought the 49ers to the Jets 2 yard line, eventually setting up the 7 yard Kaepernick touchdown run, just about everyone on the defense bit on the dive, leaving Calvin Pace in the open field with both QB Alex Smith and the pitchman, WR Kyle Williams.
I am not sure if there is anyone in the league that can defend two guys with such athleticism, at once, in the open field, let alone Calvin Pace. Pace is forced to make a decision, going with Smith, and leaving Williams with no one within 10 yards of him, allowing the WR to make it to the Jets 2 yard line before he is touched.
Clearly, there are several issues with this defense. However, if there is anything positive to take from this performance, it is that the majority of these issues are fixable. The key moving forward will be how the personnel and coaching staff respond to this. The right pieces need to be put in the right places, and if the technique can be corrected, this unit can, at the least, be respectable again. If not, make no mistake, it is going to be a very ugly year for the New York Jets.