Turn On The Jets Stock Watch – Jets/Bills Recap Edition

Mike Donnelly’s weekly Stock Watch is buying and selling after the New York Jets thrashed the Buffalo Bills in week 1

You probably didn’t hear all that much about the Jets the past two days from the national media. Well, at least not as much as you did the previous four weeks anyway. Funny how that works, huh? After weeks and weeks of the media portraying the Jets as an absolute joke and pundits everywhere seemingly taking great joy in taking shots at them, the Jets went out and absolutely slaughtered the Buffalo Bills in the first game of the season that actually counted. Yep, that’s right, believe it or not those 4 preseason games actually didn’t mean crap, and the Jets not scoring a touchdown meant even less than that. When the lights came on, the Jets dropped a 48-spot on everyone’s sleeper darling team, the Buffalo Bills. It felt good. It felt damn good. Let’s break down what we saw..

BUY: Mark Sanchez – I hate to say “I told ya so”, but… Ok, I’m not going to get too carried away just yet, but that was as good as we’ve ever seen the Sanchize look. He had time in the pocket, he looked poised and confident, and he showed a newfound zip on his passes down the field. It’s amazing what a quarterback can accomplish with a legit deep threat (Hill), competent blocking on the right side (Howard + a game plan using chip blocks), and most importantly not having Brian Schottenheimer holding him back. I’m sure it was just a coincidence that in the first game without Schotty, Sanchez had arguably the best game of his career, right? Speaking of which..

BUY: Coaching Staff – This goes to all of the coaches, from top to bottom. Rex Ryan obviously used the media’s negative portrayal of the team to motivate them and lead them into the Great Buffalo Massacre of 2012. Plus, he –along with Mike Pettine– showed he can actually coach a little football and put together a defensive game plan that absolutely shut down Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills spread attack. On the other side of the ball, watching the offensive play-calling and play design was a thing of beauty. All offseason I couldn’t say enough how much better the offense would be simply by getting rid of the black sheep of the Schottenheimer family, and the early results look promising. It had been so long, I forgot that an offense could actually stick with the run throughout an entire game; I didn’t realize you could exploit mismatches on defense and attack them; I didn’t know you could throw a pass beyond 6 yards. Week 1 was an eye-opening performance by the coaching staff. By the way, I haven’t heard many “Schotty must be laughing in St. Louis!” jokes that everyone seemed to love throughout the pre-season. I wonder why?

BUY: The Wide Receivers – Santonio Holmes was mostly double-teamed throughout the game and didn’t put up big numbers, but he clearly impacted the game just by being out there. Stephen Hill, on the other hand, did put up eye-opening numbers, scoring two TD’s in his NFL debut and getting himself open repeatedly. Jeremy Kerley also chipped in 4 catches, a TD (plus a punt return TD), and put his rough pre-season beyond him. Chaz Schilens even shocked the world by not only walking onto the field without pulling his hamstring AND making a catch. What a day!

BUY: Shonn Greene Carrying the Load – Shonn Greene was handed the ball 27 times and showed he could handle the load, which is extremely important for this Jets team. He ran hard throughout the game, didn’t tire, and was breaking tackles well into the 4th quarter which is exactly what we want to see. He’s never going to be a game-breaking threat but combined with Tebow’s wildcat, he can really be a factor in Sparano’s clock control offense. That being said..

SELL: Shonn Greene’s fumbles – Greene put the ball on the ground twice on Sunday, including once at the goalline and that is absolutely unacceptable. I’m as staunch a Greene defender as anyone, and I was generally encouraged by his performance, but he can NOT be doing that. Also..

SELL: The Run Blocking – Generally the run blocking was pretty solid on Sunday, but this team still needs a Tight End who can block. Cumberland and Reuland aren’t going to cut it, and when Jason Smith comes in for that role, it kind of tips their hand as to what is going to be run.

BUY: The Secondary – A dominant performance by the defense was marred slightly by an apparent concussion for Darrelle Revis. If the Jets are going to win in Pittsburgh, we’re going to need to see a healthy #24 out there to eliminate Antonio Brown from the Steelers offense. Against the Bills, we saw Revis, Cromartie, and Wilson manhandle the Bills receivers. We saw the new safeties, Laron Landry and Yeremiah Bell make big hits and actually make some plays. It was nice to see a Jets safety out there not just trailing a tight end by 5 yards while hopelessly diving for a tackle. We’re going to need a solid performance from these guys next week against a Pittsburgh team that likes to throw to Heath Miller down the middle of the field.

SELL: Depth on Defense – Perhaps this is nitpicking a little bit, but when the Jets started making some defensive substitutions late in the game, it got really brutal out there. Ellis Lankster can be a nice 4th corner, but when he was forced into a larger role he got picked apart. Isaiah Trufant should never be on the field for defense. Garrett McIntyre came in for an injured Bryan Thomas and the drop off was noticeable. Even Kenrick Ellis, who had a great preseason left a lot to be desired as Sione Po’uha’s replacement. We are going to need to see a healthy Sione this week against Pittsburgh and their crap offensive line.

SELL: The media – I wonder how some of these morons were able to recap the game on Sunday with a giant foot sticking out of their mouths. What a major disappointment Sunday had to be for the media hacks who had the Jets dead and buried before a single play that actually counted took place. I feel really bad that they had to file away their pre-written “clown” jokes since they weren’t able to use them. What a major disappointment. And did I take great joy in reminding everyone that the real “clowns” were people like Evan Silva, who called for the Jets to score a mere 6 points this week? Yes, yes I did. It was just one game and we can’t get too carried away because there’s a long way to go, but what a game it was. I have a feeling there are going to be plenty more like it.

Sanchez Breakdown: #6 Capable of Operating an NFL Offense

Rob Celletti provides his weekly breakdown of Mark Sanchez’s performance

Every Monday throughout the season Rob Celletti will provide a breakdown of Mark Sanchez’s performance. Also a reminder that I will breaking down the game film in a Q&A column tomorrow, if there is anything you want answered send a Tweet to the Turn On The Jets account

STAT LINE – 19/27, 266 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception – 123.4 QB Rating, 70.3 completion percentage

Watching yesterday’s beatdown of the Buffalo Bills, one thought continuously crossed my mind: “What team am I watching?”

Every single thing the Jets seemed to have trouble doing on offense last year, they got right in their 2012 opener.  Protecting the quarterback? Mark Sanchez was virtually untouched.  Third down efficiency? 10 for 14.  Getting the ball to playmakers in space?  Mark Sanchez completed passes to seven different receivers.

Regardless of the Jets’ “Ground and Pound” mentality, everyone knows that in the 2012 NFL, the quarterback is the engine that makes an offense go.  Yesterday, Sanchez had the Jets operating like a Maserati.  Here’s a closer look at the starting quarterback’s week 1 performance.

The Best: The basic stat line tells you most of what you need to know, but Sanchez also passed the eye test.  After getting over an early hiccup (more on that in a bit), every pass seemed to get out on time and with velocity.  From an accuracy standpoint, that was the best I’ve seen Sanchez throw the ball.  Receivers were running free through a suspect Buffalo secondary and Sanchez got them the ball with ease.  On his first two touchdown throws, Sanchez identified advantageous one-on-one matchups for his receivers and attacked them, opening up space with some deft pump-fakes.  In other words, the Jets looked like an effective NFL offense, something that couldn’t be said often last year.

The Worst: Obviously, the interception.  I’m steadfast in my defense of Sanchez, but my goodness, what a miserable decision he made there.  For better or worse, it seems that this is part of Sanchez’s personality as a quarterback.  He has a bit of the Tony Romo/Ben Roethlisberger tendency to not give up on a play because of his mobility, but clearly the proper decision would have been to throw the ball away or just run out of bounds.

The Key Moment: There were several, really, because it seemed as though every time the Jets needed a drive, Sanchez was able to engineer one, even in what seemed like garbage time when things got hairy at 41-28.  But for the sake of committing to one “turning point” for yesterday’s game, it has to be the drive after the interception.  A lot has been made of Sanchez’s demeanor and response to negative plays during the course of games throughout his young career.  Credit the fourth-year quarterback for bouncing right back yesterday and not allowing any hysteria involving a certain backup quarterback to ensue.  After Darrelle Revis got the ball back for the Jets at their own 39 yard line, Sanchez hooked up with Jeremy Kerley for 21 yards on third down, and then got a little help from the referees via a pass interference call on 3rd and 6 from Buffalo’s 33.  Three plays later, Kerley caught the Jets’ first touchdown on a wonderfully thrown ball to the back right corner of the endzone, and Gang Green was off to the races.

Next week’s clash in Pittsburgh is sure to provide a more stern test for Sanchez and the rest of the Jets offense, but the quarterback’s week 1 performance is still one to be very excited about.

New York Jets Week 1 Report Card – Dean’s List

A grade report for the New York Jets opening season win over the Buffalo Bills

Quarterbacks (A) – If Mark Sanchez is completing 70% of his passes and throwing 3 touchdowns on a regular basis, the Jets are going to be one of the toughest teams to beat in the NFL. Sanchez showed accuracy, poise and a short memory after a first quarter interception. He pushed the football down the field and spread it around to seven different receivers, consistently finding the proper read based on what the coverage was dictating. Yesterday’s performance confirms something we have been saying about Sanchez for a long time here, if he is protected properly he has the skills to be a very good NFL quarterback who can lead a winning team.

Tim Tebow didn’t do much with his limited reps, finishing with 11 yards on 5 carries and handing off for a few short runs. There has to be some ongoing concern about disrupting Sanchez’s rhythm by replacing him with Tebow but it wasn’t an issue yesterday. Eventually, he will be need to throw the ball out of the Wildcat to keep defenses honest. It will be interesting to see how long it takes Tony Sparano to dial one up.

Running Backs (C) – Shonn Greene ran hard for 94 yards but let’s keep perspective, it took him 27 carries to reach that total. His longest run of the day was 14 yards and he fumbled twice (losing neither). He continues to look like nothing more than a slightly above average back who lacks the ability to consistently break tackles or make people miss. Bilal Powell showed a little giddy up on a 16 yard reception and you have to wonder when the Jets will bump his carry total up. They can’t give Greene 27 carries on a weekly basis, so maybe Powell will start getting 7-10 carries a game.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends (A) – Stephen Hill had a spectacular debut, scoring 2 touchdowns including one where he smoked fellow rookie Stephon Gilmore on a double move. We knew Hill would be a vertical threat but what was really impressive was how he moved the chains on a few third downs with precise routes and tough catches in traffic. Hill has a chance to be a better version of what Braylon Edwards was for Mark Sanchez in 2009 and 2010. Santonio Holmes was productive and just missed having a ridiculous touchdown catch at the end of the half. Jeremy Kerley came up huge in the slot with a 27 yard catch and a 12 yard touchdown…hell even Chaz Schilens caught a pass for 8 yards.

Dustin Keller was quiet in the passing game but Jeff Cumberland pulled in three nice catches for 33 yards. Newcomer Konrad Reuland deserves credit for logging 17 plays after being signed just a week before the season starter.

Offensive Line (A) – Austin Howard completely shut out Mario Williams. I feel as if that needs to be typed again…Austin Howard completely shut out Mario Williams…just an unbelievable job by the Jets first year starter. The rest of the unit was excellent as well, keeping Sanchez clean all game and giving him to go through his progressions.

Defensive Line (C) – Without Sione Pouha, the Jets rushing defense struggled at times, particularly in letting CJ Spiller rip off a few monster runs. However, despite not logging any sacks they received a good push up front when the game was still in question. Muhammad Wilkerson did have a quarterback hit and Mike DeVito had 2 tackles.

Linebackers (B) – David Harris led the way with 7 tackles, Bart Scott wasn’t far behind with 5 including one for a loss. Calvin Pace hit Fitzpatrick twice  and also had 5 tackles. Bryan Thomas tweaked a hamstring and will be questionable for next week. Quiet game for Aaron Maybin.

Secondary (A) – An interception for each of the Jets top three corners. Antonio Cromartie’s was gift wrapped for him, both Darrelle Revis and Kyle Wilson made nice breaks on their respective picks. LaRon Landry seemed to be in on every tackle, finishing with 7 and a pair of quarterback hits, along with forcing a fumble on CJ Spiller. This secondary has the potential to be one of the league’s best, particularly if they keep forcing game changing turnovers.

Special Teams (A) – A beautiful punt return touchdown by Jeremy Kerley, two made field goals from Nick Folk and great distance on kickoffs…not much for Mike Westhoff to complain about. New punter Bob Malone looked very good as well.

Coaching (A) – Rex Ryan pushed all the right buttons this week by keying his team up from all the “circus” talk. His decision to publicly call out Jeremy Kerley also seems to be paying early dividends. Tony Sparano’s game plan was a refreshing break from Brian Schottenheimer ball the past 6 years.

No Huddle – New York Jets 1-0 Edition

TJ Rosenthal goes No Huddle on the Jets dominant week 1 performance

What a great start for a team that was mocked for going scoreless all summer. That was ridiculed for signing Tim Tebow. That was seen as a publicity grabbing gadget act above being a real football team. It’s only one game, but you know the Jets 48-28 thrashing of a Bills team that so many already anointed as the real threat to the Patriots, will change the conversation. Allow us to help.

1 – 48 Points: Who Knew? Sparano did

Tony Sparano made sure to keep the Bills defense uneasy right from the start. Maybe the Jets don’t have hall of fame wideouts or Jim Brown running the ball, but the players they DO have all got involved in the first quarter. We counted seven different guys touched the ball in a first quarter that shocked anyone who was dialed in to the “Circus.”

Kerley. Hill. Holmes. Heck even Keller AND Cumberland. Greene. Powell. With a little Tebow mixed in to keep the chains moving and the clock rolling. The pass protection was stellar. That’s how you do it. Sunday was the blueprint. It won’t always result in 30 plus points and other teams will provide bigger challenges defensively in the coming weeks, but Sunday’s offense was more creative than any game was that we can remember in years. It gives us hope that the defense won’t have to carry this team. The offense will have days when it does it’s fair share.

2 – Yes Sanchize, You Proved Us Right Sunday, AND Shut Some People Up

As Mark Sanchez was lighting it up in the 2009 Rose Bowl we told a friend by phone that the Jets should move up to grab him. He was exuberant, confident, and decisive.

What has happened to him along the way has been a rocky ride perhaps due to a combination of sorts. Starting with pressure from the start as a rookie on a good defensive team. Add in coddling, a tough local media, sky high expectations in 2011, and a trust in himself that at times over three years wavered. All despite his late game heroics and playoff success.

Against the Bills, with time to throw, Sanchez got the ball out on time, on the run to receivers, and was the clear field general of the team. It’s year four. A season where many say the game slows down and makes sense to signal callers who get so much thrown at them from an X’s and O’s standpoint out of college.

How much higher the ceiling can be for Sanchez is anyone’s guess. What we do know after week one is, he CAN guide his team down the field thoughout an entire game. Let the haters try to diminsih his work yesterday by saying “hey, it was just one game.” Keep the motivation for number 6 going. We love what the doubters have helped fuel already, which is a foundation for success, and for the first time in a long time, a chance for the Jets starting QB to sleep well after a great performance.

3 – NY Post, Now It’s Time For YOU To Jump In The Clown Car

Imagine burying a team that hasn’t played a real game yet. The NY Post couldn’t wait to call the Jets training sessions in Cortland “Camp Chaos” back in July. Probably loved the drawing last week that painted Rex Ryan, Sanchez and Tebow as clowns in a clown car.

Maybe now it’s time to slap a big NY Post logo on a clown car and a bozo nose on the genius who devised the artwork above. Hey, sometimes you gotta eat crow, right? Especially when you are bold enough to be designing cartoon eulogies in August.

4 – That’s EXACTLY How To Use Tim Tebow

The big QB controversy is over. Done. Finished.

What HAS just started however, is the effect that a unique playmaker can have on a team with alot of athletes looking to grow together. Tebow was (5-11 yds) not a big ground gainer, but no carry brought any loss of yardage. All Wildcat touches from him at least kept the offense on schedule and the clock moving.

He even fielded an onsides kick as a member of the “hands team” in a two score game late in the fourth.

We wrote a pre game piece noting that the two headed monster could work if Tebow could be utilized as the “spice,” and Sanchez the “sauce.” That’s what we saw on Sunday. Who knows what the “Tebow-cat” can become down the road too. It’s only one game old.

5 – If You Are Third And Long, The Jets Secondary Can Hurt You

Darrelle Revis, Kyle Wilson and Antonio Cromartie jumped routes. Cro took his pick to the house. Laron Landry forced a fumble on CJ Spiller that set up a late FG in the first half.

If the Jets front four can keep stifling the run game as they did before CJ Spiller got loose a few times, then teams will play right into Ryan’s hands. Second and long and third long situations will allow the Jets secondary, able to play the ball more aggresively thanks to their new safeties, the chance to make BIG plays.

Scoring plays and field position plays.

All aboard…The “Clown Car” leaves for Pittsburgh in the coming days. We wonder how many newcomers will now join the bandwagon. Faces painted with bozo noses and all.

Initial Reaction – 48 Points And A Barrel Of Laughs, Jets 1-0

The New York Jets rolled to a 48-28 win…thoughts on how they handled Buffalo

While we are happy to say we told you so about the Buffalo Bills being overhyped and the New York Jets remaining the second best team in the AFC East, we certainly can’t say we saw that coming. 48 points? Special teams touchdowns? The Jets looking like a high functioning NFL offense for an entire game? Today was a fun one at MetLife Stadium. Fun, because today demonstrated just how good this team could be and just how ridiculous all the negative pre-season hype around the team was.

Let’s start at the top, with the most important positon on the field and the most important player on the Jets roster not named Darrelle Revis…Mark Sanchez. Outside of a bonehead interception in the first quarter that had Twitter ablaze with cheap shots, Sanchez was as accurate as we’ve ever seen him, consistently fitting passes into tight windows and pushing the football down the field. Credit Tony Sparano for an aggressive game plan but credit Sanchez for dropping in some gems. He effectively spread the ball around, completing passes to 7 different receivers and showing tremendous comfort with rookie Stephen Hill. When you protect Sanchez, he can make all the throws necessary to win in the NFL.

The Jets wide receivers took a beating all summer, particularly Hill who many people claimed wasn’t ready for a big time role. He silenced those critics by turning in a monster 5 catch, 89 yard, 2 touchdown performance. Hill is a faster, bigger version of Braylon Edwards who Sanchez was extremely comfortable with in 2009 and 2010. Jeremy Kerley also got himself out of Rex Ryan’s doghouse with a 4 catches for 45 yards, a receiving touchdown an electric punt return touchdown. If they can stay consistent, the Jets offense has a ceiling much higher than anybody expected.

Austin Howard deserves to be singled out for praise. Mario Williams laid a goose egg today and Buffalo’s pass rush in general did absolutely nothing. The whole line deserves credit but Howard just recently stepped into a starting role and has the most prove. He was more than up to the challenge against Buffalo’s much hyped personnel.

Defensively, it was playmaking. The Jets made Ryan Fitzpatrick look every bit the overpaid, mediocre quarterback he is by intercepting him three times and taking one back to the house (we have been waiting for that defensive TD Cro!). Yes, the running defense and the lack of sacks was a mild disappointment but ultimately when the game was still in question, the defense routinely made game changing plays. LaRon Landry seemed to be in on every tackle and there is no question the tandem of him and Yeremiah Bell are a major upgrade from last year’s safeties.

The Jets and their fans have every right to enjoy this one. It was a statement victory in the division. However, there will be an even better chance to turn some heads this week in Pittsburgh. The talent is there to win, but will the consistency be there?

Check back tomorrow for No Huddle, a full Report Card and a closer look at Sanchez’s performance

Turn On The Jets Week 1 Roundtable: Jets/Bills Prediction

The Turn On The Jets staff gives their predictions for Jets/Bills

The TOJ Staff gives their predictions for the New York Jets regular season opener against the Buffalo Bills. Make sure to give everybody a follow on Twitter

Joe Caporoso – 12 Pack

Chris Gross – Jets 19 Bills 10 – Don’t expect this game to be very pretty in terms of offensive fire power. Each of these teams are built on defense and running the ball. The Jets play their first real game in the brand new offensive system of Tony Sparano, while Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills take on a New York defense that seems poised to rank in the top three in the league. The Jets offense will struggle to score touchdowns until it fully gels within the new system, but stellar defensive and special teams play will allow them to win the field position battle and accumulate points through field goals, with a touchdown sprinkled in. Expect either a “TebowCat” TD run from inside the ten, or a play action pass from Sanchez to Keller.

Mike Donnelly – Ahh, the Buffalo Bills. There’s not a team I’d rather see the Jets opening against. After months and months of hearing about how wonderful Buffalo is going to be this year on both sides of the ball, while the Jets are expected to show up in their clown car and just throw in the towel, we get to see both teams actually prove it on the field. WIth or without Sione Po’uha, the Jets defense is going to smother the Bills. You know damn well Rex Ryan has a few special wrinkles saved up for Chan Gailey this week, and I don’t expect Ryan Fitzpatrick to be able to handle them. The Jets offense is NOT as bad as they’ve shown this preseason, and now that the games count you better believe they’re going to open up the playbook and actually, you know, score a touchdown. They’ll do just enough on offense and unleash the hounds on poor Fitzpatrick on defense as the game slowly turns into a rout, something like 27-10. Oh, and expect this guy who wears #24 for the Jets to put all the “Stevie Johnson owns Revis” garbage to rest, once and for all. My official prediction? I’ll let Clubber Lang handle this one –

TJ Rosenthal – Jets win 23-17 if: The Front four remains as physical and quick off the bell as they were against Carolina weeks back. This will allow the  Jets to make the Bills duo of Jackson and Spiller unable to dictate terms. Sanchez will be efficient in this scenario while finding a way to make the big strike at some point. Tebow will move the chains and bring energy to Met Life with a few scintillating runs. Jets lose 27-13 if: The offense looks the way it did all preseason, tiring out a Jets D that had good intentions, but couldn’t rest properly. Eventually caving in after halftime.

Chris Celletti – This game is going to be absolutely excruciating for Jets fans. Not because I think they’ll lose, as you’ll see, but it’s not going to be pretty at all. I still don’t have a ton of confidence in this Jets’ offense. I expect Mark Sanchez to make some really nice throws, hit a few intermediate plays and try some deep throws, but I don’t expect a huge statistical output and I’d be shocked if he doesn’t throw a pick (and at what point that pick comes and the context of it is going to determine the circus factor in MetLife). Tim Tebow and the Wildcat will prove to be efficient, but since the Jets’ offensive line struggled in the preseason on standard running plays, I don’t see them opening up huge holes for Tebow to make a big play. I think both offenses will struggle, especially the Bills as I think the Jets’ D has a big day. The Jets do find a way to score a few touchdowns in a defense/field position battle, and the panic button goes away for at least a week. Jets 20, Bills 16

Rob Celletti– It’s not surprising that of the 16 games on the NFL Week 1 slate, Jets/Bills has the lowest over/under number (39, half a point lower than what promises to be an unwatchable clash between Minnesota and Jacksonville), and still, I’d take the under. It’s not going to be pretty, folks.  The Jets will run the ball, and they’ll punt.  Sanchez will take some sacks, and they’ll punt.  But the defense will not only hold, but dominate, and the Jets offense will find a rhythm at some point.  Look for the offense to score points when they start with a short field, via turnovers or an explosive special teams play.  Mark Sanchez will get this team into the endzone twice, and the Jets will win the game 20-13.  The statistics won’t be pretty, but 1-0 will be

Turn On The Jets Week 1 NFL Picks

The TOJ Staff submits their picks for week 1 of the NFL…the race for steak begins

The Turn On The Jets staff will be submitting their picks against the spread on a weekly basis. We will be tracking our weekly records so you know where to turn for your gambling advice. At the end of the season our staff will be gathering for a meal at Peter Lugers in Brooklyn, with the overall winner receiving a free meal. Let the race for steak begin! #RaceForSteak –

Joe Caporoso

Season Record: 0-1

  • Bears (-10) over Colts
  • Eagles (-9.5) over Browns
  • Jets (-3) over Bills
  • Saints (-8.5) over Redskins
  • Patriots (-5) over Titans
  • Jaguars (+3.5) over Vikings
  • Texans (-11.5) over Dolphins
  • Lions (-8.5) over Rams
  • Falcons (-3) over Chiefs
  • Packers (-5) over 49ers
  • Panthers (-3) over Bucs
  • Seahawks (-3) over Cardinals
  • Steelers (+1.5) over Broncos
  • Bengals (+6.5) over Ravens
  • Raiders (-1.5) over Chargers

Rob Celletti

Season Record: 1-0

  • Colts (+10) over Bears
  • Eagles (-9.5) over Browns
  • Jets (-3) over Bills
  • Saints (-8.5) over Redskins
  • Patriots (-5) over Titans
  • Vikings (-3.5) over Jaguars
  • Texans (-11.5) over Dolphins
  • Lions (-8.5) over Rams
  • Chiefs (+3) over Falcons
  • Packers (-5) over 49ers
  • Panthers (-3) over Buccaneers
  • Cardinals (+3) over Seahawks
  • Steelers (+1.5) over Broncos
  • Bengals (+6.5) over Ravens
  • Chargers (+1.5) over Raiders
Season Record: 0-1
  • Colts (+9.5)
  • Eagles (-9.5)
  • Jets (-3)
  • Saints (-8)
  • Patriots (-5.5)
  • Jaguars (+3.5)
  • Houston (-11.5)
  • Lions (-8)
  • Chiefs (+3)
  • 49ers (+5)
  • Panthers (-3)
  • Seahawks (-3)
  • Steelers (+1.5)
  • Ravens (-6.5)
  • Chargers (+1.5)

Season Record: 0-1

  • Chicago (-10) vs. Indianapolis
  • Philadelphia (-9.5) at Cleveland
  • Jets (-3) vs.Buffalo
  • New Orleans (-8.5) vs. Washington
  • New England (-5) at Tennessee
  • Jacksonville (+3.5) at Minnesota
  • Miami (+11.5) at Houston
  • Detroit (-8.5) vs. St. Louis
  • Kansas City (+3) vs. Atlanta
  • 49ers (+5) at Green Bay
  • Tampa Bay (+3) vs. Carolina
  • Seattle (-3) vs. Arizona
  • Pittsburgh (+1.5) at Denver
  • Cincinnati (+6.5) at Baltimore
  • San Diego (+1.5) at Oakland

Mike Donnelly 

Season Record: 0-1

  • Colts +10
  • Browns +9.5
  • Jets -3
  • Saints -8.5
  • Titans +4
  • Minnesota -3.5
  • Houston -11.5
  • St. Louis +8.5
  • KC +3
  • Packers -5
  • Bucs +3
  • Cards +3
  • Broncos -1.5
  • Ravens -6.5
  • Raiders -1.5

Turn On The Jets 12 Pack, Week 1 – Jets vs. Bills

A 12 pack of predictions for the Jets/Bills week 1 match-up

The 2012 NFL season is off to a beautiful start. Yes, the Giants beat the Jets last year and won the Super Bowl. Did that prevent you from enjoying David Wilson and Mathias Kiwanuka’s tears or the disappointed faces of the bandwagon Giants fans who just bought their jersey the day before in the bar on Wednesday? Of course not. Week 1 is here and with that comes 12 likely inaccurate predictions about the Jets first game, against the Fredo of the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills.

1. Stevie Johnson will have under 50 yards receiving and not score a touchdown. You think Darrelle Revis isn’t keyed up for this game after hearing all week how Johnson is the only receiver who has figured out how to beat him? Look for Revis to get after Johnson at the line of scrimmage and to be in his ear all game. I wouldn’t be surprised if he baited him into a personal foul at some point.

2. Shonn Greene will be the game’s leading rusher. The Jets have had Fred Jackson’s number over the past few years and it doesn’t look like many players will be running successfully on them throughout 2012. Greene should be good for 20+ carries and somewhere between 80 and 95 yards.

3. Let’s get this out of the way – Tebow: 6 carries, 34 yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 0/1 passing. After the rushing touchdown I expect to see a ray of light shining down on the swamps of North Jersey and the local sewage to smell of sweet roses.

4. Mark Sanchez – An efficient, productive game that won’t light up the stat sheet. Get used to them. 16/22, 195 yards, 1 touchdown, no turnovers.

5. CJ Spiller is the player on the Buffalo offense who is going to do the most damage, particularly catching passes out of the backfield. Look for him to rip off at least one big play that leads directly to points.

6. The Jets defense will sack Ryan Fitzpatrick three times and force a pair of turnovers, including one that results in a Jets score.

7. Mario Williams will have a sack in his debut for the Bills. However, Austin Howard will do a decent enough job to prevent him or Mark Anderson from taking the game over.

8. Stephen Hill will have 3 catches for 55 yards in his rookie debut.

9. Santonio Holmes will lead the Jets in catches and yards.

10. Dustin Keller will have a quiet game as he battles a hamstring injury. Jeff Cumberland will struggle with extended reps.

11.Bilal Powell will have less than 25 total offensive yards.

12. The Jets are going to win an ugly, defensive dominated 20-10 game. They won’t put it away until the 4th quarter behind their rushing attack and defense, which force a key late turnover.

NFL Week 1 Bets: The Opening Week Crapshoot

Chris Celletti submits his best bets for week 1 of the NFL season

Oh brother, here we go.

It’s Week 1 of the NFL season, and nobody knows what the hell will happen, which makes gambling on the league this week all sorts of frustrating and fun at the same time. You’re just as likely to hit something that seemed like a reach than you are to miss on a perceived no-brainer. Betting on NFL games is a total toss up to begin with, but it’s even crazier in the opening weeks before teams settle into their own. In that way, Week 1 is a bit like the opening round of the NCAA tournament.

Even if you’re talking about games without a point spread*, Week 1 is tough to forecast. Yeah, it might sound crazy unlikely, but would anyone be completely and utterly shocked if the Browns beat the Eagles on Sunday? I mean, sure, the Eagles are a better team and will probably win, but they’re still coached by Andy Reid…which makes any scenario possible. Every Week 1 sees one team who was supposed to be a Super Bowl contender start off with an epic crapfest, so why can’t that be the Eagles this week? Or the Patriots? Or the Saints? It will happen to someone.

*Sorry for the Grantlandish footnote-y thing here, but I have a quick aside: I hear a lot of people complain about the various NFL pregame shows picking games without the spread. And it’s not just idiot fans too, it’s radio hosts like Joe Beningo who are like “Bro, BRO… come on, how easy is it to pick games without a spread?!” when talking about the NFL Today or Fox’s pregame show or whatever. This is one of the most mindless complaints ever. You know why Bill Cowher doesn’t make his picks against the spread? Because actual, real life NFL football is NOT played with a point spread! Football analysts are there to break down actual, in between the lines football.  When the Jets take the field on Sunday against the Bills, the game will NOT kick off with the Bills already up 3-0 (and thank the lord for that). So go on Dan Marino, Keyshawn Johnson and Terry Bradshaw and make your non-spread picks. I have no problem with it. Plus, join a survivor pool and see how easy it is to pick games without a spread.

On that note, here are my three picks for the week, of course, against the spread.

Lions -8.5 vs. Rams – I’ve seen this line at -7.5 or even -7 in some other places, but either way I’ll take the Lions. Now, I don’t have a ton of confidence in the Lions overall this year, because if there’s any franchise that can screw up the momentum of last year and a good young quarterback with a can’t-miss wide receiver, its the Detroit Lions. But for this week, I like them at home against the Rams for one main reason; Brian Schottenheimer. Yes, our great old buddy from the Jets’ sidelines is running the Rams’ offense this season. And he actually has less offensive talent on this squad than he ever had with the Jets, and we saw how dynamic Gang Green’s offense was under his guidance this past half decade. Add in the fact that this offense employs the likes of Wayne Hunter and Matthew Mulligan, I mean, how in the hell are the Rams going to stay within 10 points of a team that threw for 5,000 yards last year in their building? Not happening.

Patriots -5 at Tennessee

Five points? That’s it? You’re telling me the  Patriots won’t beat the Titans by a touchdown? Believe me, just like every other writer on this site I’m rooting for Tennessee, but I’m not holding my breath. Too much Tom Brady, who will have a killer day throwing to his new toy Brandon Lloyd on the outside and to Vinny and Ronnie Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski down the seams. The Patriots D isn’t great but I think they’ll be ahead enough early to render Chris Johnson useless.

Chiefs +3 vs. Falcons

The Falcons are one of those teams I talked about above, one that has big expectations coming into the season and could fall flat on its face in Week 1. I don’t like the Falcons outdoors, on the road in a hostile situation against a solid defense. Here are Matt Ryan’s QB ratings the past four season while playing outdoors: 94.2 (the outlier), 76.2, 80.3, and 79.1. His numbers are even worse on grass. I like the Chiefs in an upset outright, so I’ll gladly take the three points.

Bonus Non-Football Bets of The Weekend: Did you know two of the top pound-for-pound boxers in the world, in their primes, are fighting each other on Saturday for free on HBO? No! No you didn’t know, because you have no idea who Andre Ward or Chad Dawson are, even though you’re clearly a sports fan if you’re on this site. That’s how horridly boring these two are outside of the ring (and sometimes inside the ring too). Ward is the world’s best Super Middleweight (168 pounds) while Dawson is the best at 175, and the fight will be for Ward’s WBC and ring belts. Dawson isn’t a huge puncher, so going down in weight shouldn’t hinder him too much. With a six and half inch reach advantage and a two inch height advantage, I like Dawson  in a pretty big upset at +265.

Turn On The Jets Week 1 Fantasy Football Preview

Mike Donnelly previews week 1 from a fantasy football perpsective

Week One of the NFL is here and with that comes Fantasy Football (YESSS!!!). I’m sure most –if not all– of you are in at least one fantasy league and are starting to get excited about your week 1 matchup, praying for a win so you get to talk an endless amount of trash for a whole week about your glorious victory. There’s also a good chance you’ve spent a few hours this week staring at your computer screen and agonizing over which player you want to start at your flex spot, or which of your two QB’s is a better start. Well for those people, I’m here to help. I’m not going to waste our time by telling you to start Aaron Rodgers or Calvin Johnson, because if you need that, you should go find the nearest toilet and flush your league entrance fee straight down it.

Oh, and if you’re in a league playing against me and looking for some advice, I suggest you all go read Evan Silva’s rankings. I could use a few easy wins. Thanks! Alright, let’s get on with the show.

Things are Looking Up For You If You’ve Got…

QB: Matt Ryan @ KC – I’ve seen Ryan consistently ranked in the top 7 or 8 for week 1, so you should be starting him no matter what. But I think there’s a good chance he finishes this week in the top 4 or 5 as Atlanta unveils their new pass-happy, up-tempo offense against a KC defense that is pretty stout against the run.

QB: Robert Griffin III @ NO – I’d rather start RG3 over guys like Matt Schaub, Big Ben, or Jay Cutler this week. It’s not because I fawn over him as a player like everyone else or think he’ll beat the Saints, though. It’s strictly because the Saints are going to score a ton and there’s a great chance RG3 will rack up some late meaningless stats, which are the best kind!

QB: Jake Locker vs. NE – Locker is one of my sleepers for this season and I expect big things from him as a #2 fantasy QB and bye week fill-in. I’m not placing him here to toot my own horn or anything like that, but strictly because of the Patriots high school calibre defense. If you’re in a deep league, you can do much worse than Jake.

RB: Shonn Greene vs. Buff – I love Shonn Greene this year, as you’ve seen me state numerous times now, and he’s gonna kick off a solid season by shredding Buffalo’s still bad defense.

RB: Doug Martin vs. Car – Martin is the clear centerpiece of new coach Greg Schiano’s offense. Look for him to get the ball early and often against a pretty awful Panthers run D.

RB: Stevan Ridley @ Tenn – Another one of my favorites heading into this season is Stevan Ridley. To me, he’s just a far more talented version of Green-Ellis and I think 1,000 yards and 10 TD’s is a good possibility. This week, Shane Vereen is out and if the Pats get ahead, look for Belichick to test out his new bellcow.

WR: Brandon Marshall vs Ind – To be clear, you should never bench Brandon Marshall. But look for him to perform as a top 5 WR this week against an Indy defense that is still a work in progress.

WR: Percy Harvin vs. Jax – Am I listing Marshall and Harvin because I have them both in my main money league? Yes. But Harvin was a monster the last 8 weeks of last season and with Adrian Peterson still hurt, Harvin is the main man for Minnesota.

WR: Antonio Brown @ Denv – I love Antonio Brown this year. Mike Wallace is very boom or bust and likely to be squaring off with Champ Bailey, while Brown is going to be the one consistently racking up catches.

WR: Justin Blackmon @ Minn – I think Justin Blackmon is going to be really great. Look for him to announce his arrival against a porous Vikings secondary, even though Blaine Gabbert will be throwing to him.

TE: Aaron Hernandez @ Tenn – I think there’s a good chance Hernandez will lead the Pats in receiving yards this season. Look for him to routinely make big plays down the middle of the field this week as the Titans key on Welker, Gronk, and Lloyd.

TE: Dustin Keller vs. Buff – Dustin Keller kills the Bills. Plain and simple. I refuse to believe the Bills D is all of a sudden this great unit. It’s not.

DEF: NY Jets vs. Buff – Rex Ryan vs. Chan Gailey. Yep.

DEF: Houston Texans vs. Miami – Anybody against the Dolphins is a solid start this year.

Be Prepared For Trash Talk If You’re Starting…

QB: Joe Flacco vs. Cin – I just don’t buy all the new “high-powered Ravens offense” talk, and I don’t believe in Joe Flacco. And I certainly don’t this week against a very solid Bengals defense.

QB: Matt Schaub vs. Miami – Miami has an awful team from top to bottom, and the Texans will smack them around, but look for Houston to keep it close to the vest, run the ball a ton, and not rack up a lot of passing numbers.

RB: Marshawn Lynch @ Arz – I’m down on Lynch overall this year, but especially this week. He’s already got minor injuries nagging him and the Cards surprisingly have a pretty solid defense. Don’t be surprised if Robert Turbin ends up with more carries this week.

RB: Michael Turner @ KC – Oh yeah, that whole pass-happy Atlanta offense thing? Michael Turner doesn’t fit in so well. And KC has a pretty tough defense.

RB: Maurice Jones Drew @ Minn & RB: Adrian Peterson vs. Jax – I’m lumping these two together since they’re playing on the same field and are pretty much in the same situation. MJD can’t be trusted because he held out of camp for 6 weeks to… well, he really didn’t get anything out of it, actually. And Peterson still hasn’t been allowed to take hits below the waist in Vikings practices. I’m no expert like Evan Silva or anything, but that doesn’t seem to me like he’s ready to really contribute in a meaningful way this weekend. I’d bench both of these guys.

WR: Stevie Johnson @ NYJ – Two words: Darrelle. Revis. Make that a very pissed off Darrelle Revis, actually, after he’s had to hear all offseason how Johnson owns him.

WR: Roddy White @ KC – Yes, you should absolutely start Roddy White if you have him on your team. But no, you should not expect top 5 or even top 10 level production from him this week. Julio Jones is now “the man” in Atlanta.

WR: Mike Wallace @ Den – I touched on this before, but he’s likely to get a whole lot of Champ Bailey this week, and after this prolonged holdout, I don’t think it’s going to be a very good night for Wallace.

TE: Jermaine Gresham @ Balt – Gresham has a really good chance to have a nice season for Cincinnati, but that’s much more likely to begin in week 2 after he heals up and doesn’t have to face the Ravens defense.

TE: Vernon Davis @ GB – All of the 49ers are going to have a rough go of it this week in Green Bay. The Packers and Dom Capers are smart enough to know that even with all the WR additions in San Fran, Davis is still the man to key on.

DEF: SF 49ers @ GB – The 49ers will still have an excellent defense this year and will rack up a ton of fantasy points. It just won’t be this week.