TOJ Week 9 NFL Picks

TOJ with his week 9 NFL Picks. What game are you most looking forward to this weekend?

Last Week: 5-7-1

Season Record: 57-53-4

TOJ Week 9 NFL Picks (Lines Courtesy of BetUS)

  • Atlanta (-8.5) vs. Indianapolis
  • Tampa Bay (+8.5) vs. New Orleans
  • Houston (-10.5) vs. Cleveland
  • Jets (+2) vs. Buffalo
  • Miami (+4) vs. Kansas City
  • San Francisco (-4.5) vs. Washington
  • Dallas (-11) vs. Seattle
  • Oakland (-7.5) vs. Tebowmania
  • Tennessee (-2.5) vs. Cincinnati
  • St. Louis (+2.5) vs. Arizona
  • Giants (+9) vs. New England
  • Green Bay (-6.5) vs. San Diego
  • Pittsburgh (-3.5) vs. Baltimore
  • Philadelphia (-8) vs. Chicago

NFL Week 9 – Smart Bets

Chris Celletti with his smart bets for week 9 in the NFL. Who are you putting your money on?

When the Jets have a week off, I take the week off from the NFL. I know I’m in the minority, but just as Mark Sanchez and company need their rest, I need my mental health time away from football. Week 9 brings an excellent slate of games, maybe the best week of games overall this season. Here in the New York metro area, it’ll be that rare time where Jets fans are rooting for Big Blue. Personally, whenever it seems like I have to root for a team I normally root against, they never come up big. Let’s hope I’m wrong, and this week the Giants come up with a big victory for both New York teams.

Giants -9 at Patriots and the OVER (51)

This will be a shootout. I really don’t think the Patriots should be nine point favorites over anyone at this point with that defense. Well, maybe against the Broncos if you-know-who is at QB. But Eli Manning is playing as good as he ever has, and even if Hakeem Nicks can’t go I still think the Giants will put up a lot of points. However, you don’t want to face Tom Brady and the Pats in Foxboro when they’re coming off a loss. The G-Men will have trouble covering Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, and don’t sleep on the Pats’ running game in this one. I think it is a close game that goes down to the wire, with both QB’s putting up huge numbers.

49ers -2.5 at Redskins

Who’s quarterbacking the Redskins at this point? The Redskins rank 21st against the run, and Frank Gore has been a monster recently (while also saving my miserable-but-somehow 5-3 fantasy team), and I expect him to have another huge day. If the line were a little higher I’d be skeptical with the cross country trip and early start. But by just a field goal? I’ll take San Fran.

Steelers -3 vs. Ravens and the UNDER (41.5)

I’m going with the Steelers solely on the revenge factor. Pittsburgh really hasn’t been all that impressive this season, even with beating the Pats last week. Sorry, I won’t go wild about a Super Bowl-winning QB shredding that New England pass defense. They are that bad. But the Ravens haven’t been anything special either so far. They should have lost to the horrendous Arizona Cardinals last week, at home no less. The Steelers have had this one circled on their calendars (although I doubt James Harrison has an actual calendar anywhere) since the Ravens’ Week 1 beatdown. Also, I’ll set the over/under of plays that will result in fines in this game at 4.5, and likely take the over.

BONUS NON-FOOTBALL BET OF THE WEEK

Alabama -4.5 vs LSU

Eh, nevermind. I still won’t watch a second of this game. #getaplayoffsystem

TOJ Week 8 NFL Picks – Extended Edition

TOJ with his week 8 NFL picks. Who are your best bets?

Last Week: 5-6-1 (Yikes)

Season Record: 52-46-3

TOJ Week 8 NFL Picks (Lines courtesy of BetUS)

Indianapolis (+8.5) vs. Tennessee Neither of these teams are quite as bad as they looked last week. I do think the Colts are truly awful but they will show some pride on Sunday and keep it close against Tennessee, who doesn’t have the firepower to blow them out.

Jacksonville (+9) vs. HoustonSimilarly, neither of these teams are quite as good as they looked last week. The Jaguars defense will keep them competitive.

Carolina (-3) vs. Minnesota Carolina will get their second win a row heading into their bye week. Cam Newton and Steve Smith have this team light years ahead of where anyone thought they’d be this season.

New Orleans (-14) vs. St. Louis I am not sure people really appreciate how terrible St. Louis is this season.

Baltimore (-13) vs. ArizonaThe Ravens should take out their anger on a pitiful Cardinals team this Sunday.

Giants (-10.5) vs. Miami The Suck For Luck tour loses in New Jersey for the second time in three weeks.

Buffalo (-6.5) vs. WashingtonOh, Canada. Jets nation will be rooting for the Redskins but won’t receive any help.

Detroit (-4) vs. DenverNot sure I can see Tebow winning two games in a row.

New England (-3) vs. Pittsburgh The Patriots have owned Pittsburgh, period. I hope it changes but there is no reason to think it will.

San Francisco (-9.5) vs. ClevelandThe 49ers should be able to rack up 11-12 wins this year considering their schedule.

Philadelphia (-3) vs. DallasThis could really go either way. I will take the home team.

Kansas City (+4.5) vs. San DiegoThe Chargers are still drowning in their tears from last week.

TOJ Week 7 NFL Picks

TOJ with his week 7 NFL Picks. What are the best bets for this weekend?

Season Record: 47-40-2

Last Week: 7-5-1

Week 7 NFL Picks, lines courtesy of BetUS

  • Tampa Bay (+1) vs. Chicago
  • Washington (+3) vs. Carolina
  • Jets (+3) vs. San Diego
  • Seattle (+3) vs. Cleveland
  • Tennessee (-3) vs. Houston
  • Denver (PK) vs. Miami
  • Atlanta (+3) vs. Detroit
  • Kansas City (+4.5) vs. Oakland
  • Pittsburgh (-4.5) vs. Arizona
  • Green Bay (-11.5) vs. Minnesota
  • New Orleans (-13.5) vs. Indianapolis
  • Baltimore (-10) vs. Jacksonville

TOJ Week 6 NFL Picks

TOJ with his week 6 NFL Picks

Last Week: 5-7-1

Season Record: 40-35-1

Week 6 Picks, Lines Courtesy of BetUS

  • Green Bay (-15) vs. St. Louis
  • Pittsburgh (-12) vs. Jacksonville
  • Philadelphia (-3) vs. Washington
  • San Francisco (+4.5) vs. Detroit
  • Carolina (+4) vs. Atlanta
  • Indianapolis (+6.5) vs. Cincinnati
  • New York Giants (-2.5) vs. Buffalo
  • Baltimore (-7.5) vs. Houston
  • Oakland (-7) vs. Cleveland
  • Dallas (+7) vs. New England
  • New Orleans (-6) vs. Tampa Bay
  • Minnesota (+3) vs. Chicago
  • New York Jets (-7.5) vs. Miami

Join the conversation in the TOJ Forum

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Week 6 Fantasy Advice and Injury Information

NFL Week 4 Smart Bets

A ridiculous weekend that involved a lot of drinking restricted me from doing what I love to do this time last week – give gambling advice. Although as with anything, there are mixed results. Two weeks ago, I went 4-for-4 on my NFL picks. I would have made it a perfect cross-sport 5-for-5 had Victor Ortiz not gone completely mad and headbutted Floyd Mayweather, causing Mayweather to rightly sucker punch him into oblivion. I’m convinced that fight absolutely would have ended in rounds 9 through 11, like I said it would. Either way, a pretty solid weekend two weekends ago.

And then, inexplicably this past Tuesday, I said to myself – what’s a more sure bet in this world than Manchester United and Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League against clubs from Switzerland and Amsterdam, AT HOME? At halftime, up 2-0 in both games I was joyous, and then seeing Man-U choke the game away only to do what only the Red Devils could do, score in the 90th minute to tie, was infuriating. Anyway, I’m back on it this weekend with what I think are locks for Week 4 in the NFL.  And away we go…

Giants -1  at Cardinals

As a die-hard Jet fan I can’t believe I’m saying this, but will everyone get off the Giants’ back? This is a team with a solid quarterback (not spectacular, not awful by any stretch), a great defensive line and a very good coach. I’m not saying that the Giants are going anywhere serious this season. They’re in a very tough division that appears as though it is going to beat itself up over the course of the regular season.  But I think to say they are a bad team is really shortsighted. In related news, the Cardinals are a bad team, and the Giants will win this one.

Falcons -4.5 at Seahwaks

This line jumped out to me as being a little low simply because of how bad the Seahawks are. They may have a great home-field advantage, but that’s not enough to keep them close enough in this one when they host a hungry and ticked off Falcons team. The Falcons’ offense has a field day as they win by more than a touchdown.

Cowboys  -1.5 AND Over 46 vs. Lions

The Lions are a fantastic story, and a very good football team, but they’re not going to go undefeated. Tony Romo has shown some great courage in battling through some tough injuries, and usually plays well at home. In a shootout, the Cowboys give the Lions their first loss of 2011.

Bonus Non-Football Bet of the Week – Yankees in 5

Can the Yankees win one of the games Justin Verlander starts? If they can, they should win the series. I actually think the Yankees will get decent starting pitching from Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia. The Tigers aren’t the most dangerous offensive team. And mark it down: Jose Valverde’s saves streak is coming to an end in this series. It will be a really good series with some dramatic games, but I think the Bombers advance past the Tigers in five games.

As usual, don’t hate me if you lose all your money this weekend.

TOJ Week 4 NFL Picks

Last Week: 8-8

Season Record: 27-20

Week 4 Picks

  • Dallas (-2) vs. Detroit
  • New Orleans (-8) vs. Jacksonville
  • Philadelphia (-9) vs. San Francisco
  • Washington (-2.5) vs. St. Louis
  • Tennessee (PK) vs. Cleveland
  • Cincinnati (+4) vs. Buffalo
  • Minnesota (-3) vs. Kansas City
  • Carolina (+6) vs. Chicago
  • Pittsburgh (+3.5) vs. Houston
  • Seattle (+6) vs. Atlanta
  • New York Giants (-3) vs. Arizona
  • San Diego (-7) vs. Miami
  • Denver (+13) vs. Green Bay
  • New England (-6) vs. Oakland
  • New York Jets (+3.5) vs. Baltimore
  • Tampa Bay (-10) vs. Indianapolis

TOJ Week 3 NFL Picks

Last Week: 10-6

Season Record: 19-12

Week 3 Picks (Lines courtesy of BetUS)

  • Cincinnati (-2.5) vs. San Francisco
  • Buffalo (+7) vs. New England
  • New Orleans (-4.5) vs. Houston
  • Philadelphia (-8.5) vs. Giants
  • Cleveland (-2) vs. Miami
  • Tennessee (-7) vs. Denver
  • Minnesota (+4.5) vs. Detroit
  • Carolina (-4) vs. Jacksonville
  • San Diego (-14) vs. Kansas City
  • Jets (-4) vs. Oakland
  • Baltimore (-6) vs. St. Louis
  • Atlanta (PK) vs. Tampa Bay
  • Seattle (+3.5) vs. Arizona
  • Green Bay (-4.5) vs. Chicago
  • Pittsburgh (-11.5) vs. Indianapolis
  • Washington (+3) vs. Dallas

TOJ Week 2 NFL Picks

Last Week’s Record: 9-6

Season Record: 9-6

Week 2 Picks (Lines courtesy of BET Us)

  • New Orleans (-6.5) vs. Chicago
  • Detroit (-8.5) vs. Kansas City
  • Jets (-9) vs. Jacksonville
  • Oakland (+3.5) vs. Buffalo
  • Washington (-4) vs. Arizona
  • Baltimore (-7) vs. Tennessee
  • Pittsburgh (-14.5) vs. Seattle
  • Green Bay (-11.5) vs. Carolina
  • Tampa Bay (+3) vs. Minnesota
  • Cleveland (-2) vs. Indianapolis
  • Dallas (-4) vs. San Francisco
  • Houston (-3.5) vs. Miami
  • San Diego (+7) vs. New England
  • Denver (-3.5) vs. Cincinnati
  • Atlanta (+2.5) vs. Philadelphia
  • Giants (-6) vs. St. Louis

NFL Week 2 Picks: Saints & Texans Good Bets

Chris Celletti goes over the best bets for week 2 of the NFL

The mass uncertainty heading into an NFL Week 1 has come and gone, and while there are teams (ahem, the Giants) for whom the sky is falling, there is also extreme optimism across half the league. Week 2 should get everyone back to normal. Those teams who had a rousing Week 1 win, like the Bears, may get a reality check – while all will likely be right in Steelerland on Monday morning. Taking a look at the Week 2 NFL schedule, there are actually a lot of pretty miserable games on tap. The only thing that could make some of them watchable (Redskins vs. Cardinals, Browns vs. Colts – ouch), is what makes the NFL the most popular sport in the country anyway – betting!

Saints -6.5 vs. Bears

I love the Saints in this one. First off, because if you’ve ever been to New Orleans (and remember it), you know that the only things that matter in the Big Easy are food, alcohol, jazz, and the Saints (not necessarily in that order), so the Superdome will be rocking. Drew Brees looked silly-good against the Packers in Lambeau last Thursday, so I expect big numbers in the dome on turf. Despite missing Marques Colston, New Orleans will still be able to move the ball. The Saints D’ will come up with enough big plays, intercepting Jay Cutler a few times, and I think they win by more than a touchdown.

Texans -3 at Dolphins

The Texans’ defense is better than the Patriots’. Yeah, I said it. I’m sorry, Chad Henne is not throwing for 400 yards again this week. And while Matt Schaub is no Tom Brady, did you see the Dolphins’ defense in Week 1? My goodness. Add Andre Johnson into the mix, and the Texans should roll to 2-0 while covering this spread.

Steelers -14 vs. Seahawks

I usually stay away from a spread this high, but the Steelers are pissed after getting routed by the Ravens last week. Good night.

Bucs +3 at Vikings

I need to see something from Donovan McNabb to prove that he’s not a walking corpse before I have any confidence in the Vikings. I’ll give you Adrian Peterson, but outside of him Minnesota is weak. I think Tampa was overhyped last year and was the classic “new coach out of nowhere 10-6 team (see 2006 Jets under Eric Mangini), but I think they keep this a low-scoring affair.

Bonus Non-Football Bet of the Week!

Floyd Mayweather Jr. by KO over Victor Ortiz (+200)

Looking at the odds for the Mayweather-Ortiz fight, I think any Mayweather by KO odds are sneaky good bets. Especially if you can find someone to give you the Vegas lines that ESPN’s Dan Rafael tweeted yesterday, where a Mayweather KO in rounds 9-11 is at 12-1. Mayweather is no knockout artist but I can see this fight being eerily similar to Floyd’s December 2008 fight with Ricky Hatton. Ortiz is going to try to get inside and make it a brawl, and may have some moments in the early rounds. But by round four or five Mayweather will have adjusted, which he does better than anyone in boxing, and will be systematically picking apart Ortiz. Ortiz won’t pull a Shane Mosley and give up, he’ll keep coming in, hoping to land a big shot. As he tires, he’ll be ripe for the picking by Mayweather, and I think a 10th or 11th round stoppage is a good possibility.

Please don’t blame me if you lose all your money this weekend.