Archive for the ‘NFL Picks’ Category

NFL Divisional Round: Standing On The Verge Of Getting It On

While everyone from Denver settles themselves in as the sun goes down, Patriots fans are having some serious inner dialogue. What is he going to do? Are they going to play this one conservative? Is Tim Tebow saving the final act for the field where playoff hopes go to die for the home team? What if he starts airing it out all over the place, with the occasional QB draw once he finally gets his 2 deep look?

The problem for the Patriots is not the Broncos defense. It’s the Broncos offensive playcalling, which NO ONE CAN EXPLAIN. Seriously, did anyone think the Broncos were gonna average 31.6 yard per pass? Nope. Not even New England tried that against the Steelers. It was all dink and dunk over the middle, couple of comeback routes and the occasional power run to keep everything close. No one is ready for what the Broncos are going to unleash tonight. Least of all the Patriots secondary. Sure the Pats are going to try some 2 deep zone looks to try and keep things in front of them, but Tebow will bring them closer, if for nothing else but to see if there are still pupils in his eyes.

I keep looking over the sheets of notes I made here, with the name Stevan Ridley popping out at me. That’s what terrifies me most about the Patriots. They can change the pace of a game WHENEVER THEY WANT. They have Green-Ellis to just run up the middle and get blasted a few times for 3 yards a clip. Then there’s the two strangest x factor backs most people have never even heard of. Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen may in fact turn this Patriots running game into a strange troika of smoke-screening, with Danny Woodhead ready for a jumbo formation counter play when Brady checks out of the spread as the safeties of Denver begin to have a very serious dilemma. What happens when the 4 wide set is Danny Woodhead, Wes Welker, Deon Branch, and Rob Gronkowski? Suddenly Woodhead motions in, and Gronkowski slides left into a bunch formation. Decisions need to be made. Quickly.

Let’s be clear. This isn’t about revenge for Tom Brady. He got his revenge by owning the Jets twice this year. This is about respect. Everyone knows that a playoff loss at home to Tim Tebow is going to set this team back about two years, when everyone was unanimously picking them for at least an AFC championship game appearance. That hasn’t happened in over 4 years, and despite the fact that his supporting cast has become great and awful simultaneously, Brady and Belichick know there are only two faces that will appear on the back of the Boston Herald.

Counterpoint: What may in fact be worse for the rest of the league is that a loss to the Broncos is going to cause a dramatic shift for the Patriots in terms of draft and free agent ideology. As of now, the Patriots have two first round picks, two second round picks, and two third round picks. Which leaves this doomsday scenario. Patriots move up about ten spots in the first round, and move up in the second, while cutting the fat of a few older players with some draft day trades. Two legitimate first round picks on defense, and two more second rounders, one defense and maybe another receiver. There will be serious problems if the Patriots get a pass rush anything near the Giants, and if they have a secondary that can at least be adequate in man coverage, teams are going to have a serious issue on their hands when you’re trying to force the ball down the field because Tom Brady just put up 28 on you in less than 15 minutes.

And what if the Broncos win? ESPN executives will begin to hemorrhage and contemplate a running banner of Tim Tebow tweets from now until the Super Bowl. There will be no escape. Giant slayers. Holy rollers. Brady beaters. No one wants to mention the fact that Mark Sanchez beat Manning and Brady back to back on the road last year, because that’s last year, and it’s been established by his own defense that Mark Sanchez sucks.

Tim Tebow winning in Foxborough will change things. That’s why it won’t happen. Even Ochocinco admitted that Tom Brady has turned into the Tom Brady everyone despises outside of Boston. The guy whose main focus is to put up enough points so that he can sit down in the third quarter and let Ryan Mallet humiliate the Broncos defense to the tune of 51 points. John Elway will be grinning either way. This is modern day football. Have no faith in miracles.

NFL Divisional Round: The Nervous Breakdown That Is Alex Smith

What may be the most diametrically opposed concepts of football is going to be taking place in San Francisco, a city that ruined my psyche with it’s plethora of drugs, bums, and general aimlessness. This weekend will not be aimless. It has already been lamely compared to “objects in motion stay in motion until they hit immovable forces”, blah blah blah. OK. Here’s what this all breaks down to. Alex Smith not getting his head removed from his shoulders. Why in God’s name would Greg Williams have any respect for Alex Smith, or the big boi on slow legs Frank Gore? Sure the Saints might get beat down the middle a few times, but the Saints know for a fact that they can turn around and put up 14 before anyone knows what happened. You’ll see.

You’ll go out to smoke a cigarette, Alex Smith marching down the field with some counters, a little play action, and even a few comebacks out of the spread, ball is on the 30. Then what happens? Saints score 10 points. Huh? Yep. Alex Smith gets sacked on the Saints 20, Drew Brees runs a draw for 20 yards and all of the sudden Jimmy Graham gets loose down the seam because the two linebackers are trying to spy over the middle. Easy stuff.

Where this game may get interesting is when Brees gets into 3rd and long, which will happen less than 5 times the entire game. Mark my words. The Saints are going to keep things interesting, two tight end sets, play action, shovel passes to Sproles, and the occasional power run set. The Saints don’t want to overpower the 49ers, they want to outsmart them. The Saints are fencing and the 49ers want a street fight. You don’t get points for punching in fencing.

If Mark Ingram was in this game, it’s not even close. The Saints would stuff it until someone gets knocked backwards, and then the play action is at it’s deadliest. But he’s not in, and Pierre Thomas isn’t going to try to run into Aldon Smith on a regular basis.

What I fear, and what will probably happen, is that if the Saints get desperate and it’s a low scoring game, then the first down hail mary will rear its ugly head and the Saints will somehow gain 60 yards without a completion. It’s the ace in the hole for Sean Payton, and Sean Payton likes poker. Will it make 49ers fans fume with rage for the next week and a half?

I really don’t know if San Francisco, as a city, cares about this game. I’ve been there. I spent a week and didn’t see a single jersey. Given, it wasn’t football season, but I have a hard time envisioning the Castro aglow with red jerseys and vicious drunks. Which is why the team should be permanently moved to Alcatraz and people should have to swim for their lives to see the game if they don’t want to pay the price of admission. Sure, a few people wouldn’t make it, but those who do would make even Raiders fans weep tears of joy.

Jesus, where have I gone with this. Too many nights spent staring at swirling patterns on my hotel room bunk bed, 18 year old street fights, and general madness. I know I wrote about the breakdown of Alex Smith, and he may in fact sneak out of here alive, but there’s only one chance for that, and it’s turnovers. Multiple turnovers. The 49ers can’t slow the Saints down to a crawl, no one can. They’re gonna have to do a job of disguising plays that makes Rex Ryan’s last playoff scheme against the Patriots look like 3 box play calling in Madden. Screw Gameflow. I’m rooting for the 49ers, and I’d like to see the NFC West raise themselves from the murk and get interesting. And I like linebackers, just not Jonathan Vilma. Because he, like many others, proved the Jets are inept at keeping talent. So there it is, I like the mud of the 49ers and I’m still trying to find reasons to not give up on the Jets for good. I got rid of the Knicks a week ago, and I’m on Step 7 of recovery.

TOJ Wild-Card Weekend Picks

After a very average season of regular season picks against the spread, I am ready to impart my wisdom on the wild-card round of the playoffs. If you have said before the season that I’d be settling in this weekend to watch T.J. Yates, Andy Dalton, and Tim Tebow play, I would have said you were as crazy as Rex Ryan when he decided to name Santonio Holmes captain. Oh well.

Final Regular Season Record: 124-120-5

Houston (-3) vs. Cincinnati – This should be an evenly matched, fairly low-scoring game. I do think the Houston running game will control the clock and Arian Foster or Ben Tate will break a big run at some point that will prove to be difference. Cincinnati made it into the playoffs without ever posting a truly impressive win, I do think this will be tight into the fourth quarter but they won’t be able to make the big play late to win this game.

Detroit (+10.5) vs. New Orleans – I do think New Orleans will ultimately win this game but it will be closer than most people anticipate. Detroit has the firepower to run up points in the dome and I think they will remain in striking distance until the fourth quarter, when Drew Brees will make a few plays that Matthew Stafford won’t.

New York Giants (-3) vs. Atlanta – A very evenly matched game, in which both teams should run up a good amount of points. The key to this game will be how well Atlanta can run the football in order to set up the play action passing game where they can hurt the Giants secondary with their big play weapons. Ultimately, in a game this tight I am going with the better quarterback, who is Eli Manning.

Pittsburgh (-8.5) vs. Denver – This game has 20-3 written all over it. Tim Tebow isn’t ready to beat this Pittsburgh defense.

TOJ Week 16 NFL Picks

Last Week: 8-8

Season Record: 108-108-5

Week 16 NFL Picks (Lines Courtesy of BetUS)

  • Houston (-7) vs. Indianapolis
  • Kansas City (-2.5) vs. Oakland
  • Denver (-3) vs. Buffalo
  • Tennessee (-7) vs. Jacksonville
  • Arizona (+4.5) vs. Cincinnati
  • New England (-10) vs. Miami
  • Baltimore (-13) vs. Cleveland
  • Minnesota (+7) vs. Washington
  • Carolina (-8.5) vs. Tampa Bay
  • San Diego (+2.5) vs. Detroit
  • Seattle (+3) vs. San Francisco
  • Philadelphia (+1.5) vs. Dallas
  • Green Bay (-13) vs. Chicago
  • New Orleans (-7) vs. Atlanta

TOJ Week 15 NFL Picks

Last Week: 6-10

Season Record: 100-100-5

Week 15 NFL Picks (Lines courtesy of BetUS)

  • Jacksonville (+12) vs. Atlanta
  • Dallas (-7.5) vs. Tampa Bay
  • Washington (+7) vs. Giants
  • Green Bay (-14.5) vs. Kansas City
  • New Orleans (-8) vs. Minnesota
  • Seattle (+3.5) vs. Chicago
  • Houston (-6) vs. Carolina
  • Indianapolis (+8) vs. Tennessee
  • Cincinnati (-8) vs. St. Louis
  • Detroit (-2.5) vs. Oakland
  • New England (-7.5) vs. Denver
  • Jets (+3) vs. Philadelphia
  • Arizona (-7) vs. Cleveland
  • Baltimore (-3) vs. San Diego
  • Pittsburgh (+3) vs. San Francisco
  • Miami (PK) vs. Buffalo

TOJ Week 14 NFL Picks – Extended Edition

Last Week: 5-10 (yikes)

Season Record: 94-90-5

  • A very important update. Last week a bitter Giants fan who couldn’t stomach some good-natured trash talk about his team’s 4 game losing streak pointed out that between week 10 and 11, the numbers on my season picks were incorrect. After he took the time to organize photographic evidence, it does appear to be true. I accidentally typed a “5″ instead of a “6″ in front of my losses one week. The number is corrected now. Contrary to some thinking out there from the previously mentioned bitter Giants fan, there was no conspiracy to enhance my record, which is ultimately meaningless, just a simple typo. Why this individual decided to wait until his team lost their fourth straight game to mention this random typo, when he could have mentioned it in our comments section or Facebook Page or Twitter account in the prior 4 weeks is beyond me. So I apologize to anybody out there who was feverishly tracking my record for any reason. There is no grassy knoll assassin, just a typo.

While on the topic of Giants fans, as the trash talking heats up in the holiday season with both teams fighting for their playoff lives and a Christmas Eve showdown on the horizon –

Why do they love referring back to Denver loss? Isn’t it less embarrassing to lose to Tebow on the road on a 3 day week, who is blessed by God and is 6-1 as a starter, than to lose at home to Vince Young and Charlie Whitehurst in the same year?

You want to criticize Rex for making guarantees he hasn’t kept. Fair enough, but know your team does the same thing. Antrel Rolle guaranteed the playoffs last year and they didn’t make it. He did it again this year and the Giants are 6-6.

The Giants haven’t won a game in 32 days.

We can only hope as the trash talks picks up in the coming weeks. People keep it to the teams, and don’t make it personal, although we are anticipating plenty of holidays being ruined at MetLife Stadium on Christmas Eve.

On the to picks…

Pittsburgh (-14.5) vs. Cleveland – Too important for Pittsburgh to slip up…

Indianapolis (16.5) vs. Baltimore – The Colts will lose, but I give them the cover.

Houston (+3) vs. Cincinnati - Considering the direction these two teams have been trending.

Green Bay (12.5) vs. Oakland – 13-0.

Kansas City (+10) vs. Jets – Not comfortable giving the Jets double digits.

Tennessee (+4.5) vs. New Orleans – Jets fans sweat out a scary tight win for the Saints.

Miami (-3) vs. Philadelphia – Two teams going in different directions.

New England (-9.5) vs. Washington – Line should be higher.

Carolina (+3) vs. Atlanta – Upset written all over it.

Arizona (+4.5) vs. San Francisco – They are due for a let-down, right?

Denver (-4) vs. Chicago – One step closer to AFC West title.

San Diego (-7) vs. Buffalo – #BillsMafia

Dallas (-3) vs. Giants – 5 in a row…

Seattle (-5.5) vs. St. Louis – This is really a Monday night game?

Tampa Bay (PK) vs. Jacksonville – zzzz

Minnesota (+8) vs. Detroit – The Lions woes continue.

TOJ Week 13 NFL Picks

Last Week: 8-5

Season Record: 89-70-5

Week 13 Picks

  • Seattle (+3) vs. Philadelphia
  • Buffalo (-2.5) vs. Tennessee
  • Chicago (-7) vs. Kansas City
  • Miami (-2.5) vs. Oakland
  • Pittsburgh (-7) vs. Cincinnati
  • Cleveland (+7) vs. Baltimore
  • Washington (+4) vs. Jets
  • Atlanta (-3.5) vs. Houston
  • New Orleans (-9.5) vs. Detroit
  • Minnesota (PK) vs. Denver
  • San Francisco (-14) vs. St. Louis
  • Dallas (-6) vs. Arizona
  • Green Bay (-8) vs. Giants
  • New England (-20) vs. Indianapolis
  • Jacksonville (+4.5) vs. San Diego

TOJ Week 12 NFL Picks

Season Record – 81-65-5

Week 12 Picks (Lines Courtesy of BetUS)

  • Arizona (+2.5) vs. St. Louis
  • Jets (-9.5) vs. Buffalo
  • Cleveland (+7.5) vs. Cincinnati
  • Houston (-7.5) vs. Jacksonville
  • Carolina (4.5) vs. Indianapolis
  • Tampa Bay (+3.5) vs. Tennessee
  • Atlanta (-10.5) vs. Minnesota
  • Oakland (-4) vs. Chicago
  • Seattle (-3.5) vs. Washington
  • New England (4.5) vs. Philadelphia
  • Denver (+6) vs. San Diego
  • Pittsburgh (-11.5) vs. Kansas City
  • New Orleans (-7) vs. Giants

TOJ Week 10 NFL Picks

Last Week: 9-5

Season Record: 66-59-4 (already 0-1 this week, as I picked San Diego last night)

TOJ Week 10 NFL Picks (Lines Courtesy of BetUS)

  • Pittsburgh (-4) vs. Cincinnati
  • Denver (+3) vs. Kansas City
  • Jacksonville (-4) vs. Indianapolis
  • Tampa Bay (+4) vs. Houston
  • Carolina (-3.5) vs. Tennessee
  • Miami (-4) vs. Washington
  • Dallas (-5) vs. Buffalo
  • Philadelphia (-12.5) vs. Arizona
  • Atlanta (PK) vs. New Orleans
  • Chicago (-3) vs. Detroit
  • St. Louis (+3) vs. Cleveland
  • Baltimore (-7.5) vs. Seattle
  • San Francisco (-3.5) vs. Giants
  • Jets (-2) vs. New England
  • Minnesota (+13.5) vs. Green Bay


TOJ Week 9 NFL Picks

Last Week: 5-7-1

Season Record: 57-53-4

TOJ Week 9 NFL Picks (Lines Courtesy of BetUS)

  • Atlanta (-8.5) vs. Indianapolis
  • Tampa Bay (+8.5) vs. New Orleans
  • Houston (-10.5) vs. Cleveland
  • Jets (+2) vs. Buffalo
  • Miami (+4) vs. Kansas City
  • San Francisco (-4.5) vs. Washington
  • Dallas (-11) vs. Seattle
  • Oakland (-7.5) vs. Tebowmania
  • Tennessee (-2.5) vs. Cincinnati
  • St. Louis (+2.5) vs. Arizona
  • Giants (+9) vs. New England
  • Green Bay (-6.5) vs. San Diego
  • Pittsburgh (-3.5) vs. Baltimore
  • Philadelphia (-8) vs. Chicago