Welcome back to another edition of the Turn On The Jets 12 Pack. Make sure to subscribe to the TOJ podcast (hit us with a rating!)
1 – Houston (-2.5) and under 44: I find this game difficult to pick because I think Buffalo is the better team with the better coaching staff but Houston has the better quarterback and home field advantage. The fact that the line has dropped to under 3 points pushed me over the top to take the Texans, who will benefit from an uneven Josh Allen performance (similar to the one Deshaun Watson had in his playoff debut last year) and a much improved game from their own quarterback. The only thing I am betting related to this game is the under (which I’ll get to later) but if I had to pick a winner, I am going with the Texans.
2 – Tennessee (+5): If you would have told me before the season that I’d be picking Ryan Tannehill to win or even cover a playoff game in New England, I would not have believed you but here we are. Throw everything about the Patriots history out and the Titans have unquestionably been a better team down the stretch with better quarterback play. They also have familiarity with the New England infrastructure, which was on display when they throttled the Patriots last season in Tennessee and certainly seemed to help Brian Flores last week. This one is going to be close and the Titans are at least begging to be teased up to 11 points.
3 – Saints (-7.5): Rightly the biggest spread of the weekend, as the Saints are the most complete team playing over the next few days against a Minnesota team who doesn’t inspire confidence to win a road playoff game. This feels like a shootout where the Saints ultimately pull away by 10+ points in the fourth quarter.
4 – Eagles (+2) and under 45: I want nothing to do with this game from a gambling perspective. Seattle is unquestionably better than this injury depleted Eagles team but Philadelphia found a way to keep winning down the stretch and has the benefit of the Seahawks also being plenty banged up themselves…while needing to fly across the country after Sunday Night Football. I’d bet the under, if anything in this game and I’m expecting an ugly, close one that could go either way.
5 – Your Four Teasers
- Texans/Bills under 50, Titans +11, Saints -1.5 (+160)
- Titans +11, Saints -1.5 (-120)
- Texans/Bills under 50, Eagles/Seahawks under 51, Saints -1.5 (+160)
- Saints/Vikings over 43.5, Saints -1.5 (-120)
6 – Your Two Parlays
- Titans ML, Saints ML (+273)
- Saints ML, Saints/Vikings over 49.5, Bills/Texans under 43.5 (+355)
- 7-9 on wins/losses
- 8-8 against the spread
- 18-10-1 on non-Jets NFL picks (good sign for Wild Card Weekend!)
- Record: 8-8 (only one game off). I think if the Jets had Darnold for 16 games, they win one of their games against Cleveland or Philadelphia to reach 8-8. As long as Adam Gase is the Jets Head Coach, I will be picking them to be somewhere between 7-9 and 9-7 every year.
- Le’Veon Bell UNDER 1,125.5 rushing yards – He wasn’t close to this number, sadly
- Jamison Crowder leading the Jets in targets/receptions (which he did), I had him down for 760 yards and 4 touchdowns. He finished with 833 yards and 6 touchdowns.
- The Jets will beat the Giants
- Jamal Adams being All-Pro again (he will be)
- Generally, I had the special teams and defense being way worse than they were and offense being way better than it was. Shame on me for doubting Gregg and Boyer and having any faith in Gase.
- The Jets splitting with New England and being 5-5 after 10 games (they were swept and were 3-7 after 10 games).
- The offensive line being generally healthy and Kelechi Osemele having a strong season…yikes.
- Ty Montgomery being heavily involved in the offense…he wasn’t at all.
- Counting on Enunwa and Herndon to be productive/healthy.
- Thinking Quinnen would have 5+ sacks and get votes for DROY. Not even close.
- 16 starts, 30 touchdowns, 3,700 yards, 14 interceptions. 60.9 completion percentage, 2 rushing touchdowns, 3 lost fumbles, 195 rushing yards
- 13 starts, 19 touchdowns, 3,024 yards, 13 interceptions, 61.9 completion percentage, 2 rushing touchdowns, 3 lost fumbles, 66 rushing yards
Actual Stats projected over 16 games
- 23 touchdowns, 3,720 yards, 16 interceptions, 61.9 completion percentage, 2 rushing touchdowns, 4 lost fumbles, 81 rushing yards
11 – Offseason Coaching Prediction: The Jets will fire Frank Pollack as their offensive line coach
12 – Random Offseason transaction predictions: Robby Anderson will walk in free agency and the Jets will trade Le’Veon Bell for a conditional third round pick.