2018 NFL Best Bets Against the Spread – Week Thirteen

I went 1-4 against the spread last week, which is honestly what I deserve for betting on the Raiders. With five weeks left in the regular season, I need to get my act together and pick some winners. Here are some NFL takes before I give my bets:

  1. The Cowboys are… pretty good? Their win over New Orleans last Thursday was really impressive and I especially loved what I saw from Dallas’ front seven. Leighton Vander Esch has been fantastic and should be the front runner for Defensive Rookie of the Year. 
  2. I think Mike McCarthy is already a goner at this point, but the Packers’ front office deserves criticism, too. This team has Aaron Rodgers in his prime and his only weapon of note is Davante Adams. Green Bay has to be aggressive in free agency this offseason and get some playmakers for their quarterback. 

Miami -3.5 vs. Buffalo

The Bills are technically still alive for an AFC wild card spot, but I think they come crashing back to earth against Miami. They’ve won two games in a row against bad teams, and Josh Allen was extremely limited throwing the ball against Jacksonville.

The Dolphins, on the other hand, played well in a loss against the Colts. I think they bounce back at home here, as Ryan Tannehill is starting to get healthy.

Dolphins win 26-16.

Indianapolis -4 at Jacksonville

I’m going to keep riding with the Colts, who did not cover last week, but continue to win games.

Even at home against a divisional rival, I just don’t see how Jacksonville will be motivated for this game. They’ve lost seven games in a row and are now starting Cody Kessler at quarterback. With Jalen Ramsey and Tashaun Gipson questionable to play as well, their defense could be missing a couple of key pieces.

I’m taking the Colts to win here, 31-17.

LA Rams -9.5 at Detroit

I don’t always like taking teams that are favored by more than a touchdown, but I’ll happily bet on the Rams against the dysfunctional Lions. Not only is Todd Gurley fully healthy again, but the Rams are also activating Aqib Talib. They’ve had some difficulty covering in recent weeks, but this Rams team is due for a blowout.

Rams win easily 35-22.

Pittsburgh -3.5 vs. LA Chargers

This is a great spot for the Steelers, who are coming home after a tough loss in Denver. Pittsburgh’s offense is significantly better in Heinz Field, and I think Big Ben responds with a strong game after his brutal interception against the Broncos

I like the Chargers, but even with Joey Bosa back, I don’t think their defense can stop the Steelers.

Give me Pittsburgh to win here, 28-21.

Washington +6.5 at Philadelphia

Even with Colt McCoy starting, I think the Redskins keep this game close. Washington is still in the playoff hunt and they should be motivated against their division rival. I still think the Eagles win the game outright, but they should not be laying 6.5 points.

Eagles win, but Redskins cover the spread, 24-23.

Week Twelve Record: 1-4

Season Record: 29-31