2018 NFL Best Bets Against the Spread – Week Sixteen

Jake Benaquistio with his NFL Best Bets for week 16…

Before I give my picks for week sixteen, allow me to gush about the Jets’ franchise quarterback real quick:

  1. After throwing for two touchdowns, 253 yards, and no interceptions against Houston last Saturday, Sam Darnold continued to look like the special player he was projected to become out of USC. His accuracy, especially with throws on the run, was about as good as you can ask for against a talented Texans’ defense. Seeing Darnold play to this level against a top defense really makes you wonder how high his ceiling is if the Jets build an offensive line and get some more quality weapons around him.

Baltimore +4.5 at LA Chargers

Baltimore’s rushing offense has been electric since Lamar Jackson took over at QB. The unit is averaging 230.4 yards on the ground per game in this stretch and their defense continues to shut down opposing offenses. Everyone is high on the Chargers right now, and they should be, but I think LA struggles in this game against one of the better rushing attacks they’ll face all season.

I’ll take Baltimore covering the 4.5 points, but Chargers win this game outright, 22-18.

Houston +2 at Philadelphia

As 13.5 point underdogs, Philadelphia deserves a ton of credit for their big win over the Rams last week. However, I think that win is a lot less shocking if you consider how badly Jared Goff has played in recent weeks.

The Eagles now get to face the Texans, who find a way to win and cover games when you’d least expect it. I bet against Houston a lot earlier in the season, but a healthy Deshaun Watson has become one of the most valuable players in the league.. He doesn’t have the numbers, but Watson absolutely belongs in the MVP conversation when you see how much his team rallies around him.

Give me the Texans to go on the road and beat the Eagles, 31-27.

NY Jets +2.5 vs. Green Bay

This may be an overreaction to last week’s game versus the Texans, but my gut tells me that the Jets can win this game. Sam Darnold has been playing with a swagger since returning from his injury, as he looks much more confident than he did earlier in the season.

In their last home game of the season, I think Darnold takes another step forward and leads his team to a victory.

Jets win 27-24.

Miami -3.5 vs. Jacksonville

The Dolphins’ chances of making the playoffs are slim, but they still have a lot more to play for than the Jaguars. Not only do they have more to play for, but Miami is simply the better team. The Dolphins’ star CB Xavien Howard will likely be active, which means an already putrid Jacksonville offense could have even more trouble moving the ball on Sunday.

Miami wins this one 21-14.

Seattle +2.5 vs. Kansas City

Russell Wilson is almost never an underdog in Seattle, so I’ll take advantage of this rare opportunity. Since Wilson’s rookie year in 2012, the Seahawks are 35-22-2 against the spread at home. Seattle has one of the strongest home field advantages in the league, and I trust them more here in a big spot on national TV.

Seahawks win in an upset, 28-23.


Week Fifteen Record: 1-4

Season Record: 36-39