2018 NFL Best Bets Against the Spread – Week Fifteen

My picks finally got back on track last week, as I went 4-1 against the spread. With only three weeks left in the regular season, I’m looking to finish strong with a winning streak. Here are a few NFL thoughts before I give my best bets:

  1. I’m actually really excited to watch the Texans / Jets game. Even though the Jets are probably better off losing for a top draft pick, I want to see Darnold continue to develop and play like he did in Buffalo. 
  2. You could reasonably argue that the Kirk Cousins contract has already become one of the worst in the NFL. We’ll see if the John DeFilippo firing makes any difference, but it’s starting to look like the Vikings made an enormous mistake with that signing. 

Denver -2.5 vs. Cleveland

The Browns and Baker Mayfield have been playing well at home, but going into Denver is no easy task for a rookie QB. I’m a little worried about Denver’s lack of weapons since Emmanuel Sanders got injured, but I think their defense and running game makes up for it. Look for Cleveland to come out flat on the road after their emotional win against the Panthers last week.

Broncos win 23-17.

Oakland +3 at Cincinnati

As bad as the Raiders have been this season, the Bengals’ defense has been even worse. They’re allowing over 30 points per game, and Derek Carr has actually been playing well over the last few weeks.

With Jeff Driskel starting at QB, I think Cincinnati struggles to put up points here.

I like the Raiders to win in an upset, 26-14.

Buffalo -2.5 vs. Detroit

With a banged-up Matt Stafford in cold weather, I think Detroit might not be totally motivated for this game. They’ll be going against a tough Bills defense who are much better in Buffalo, despite allowing Sam Darnold to lead the Jets to a comeback win last week. Overall, I like Buffalo’s home field advantage here and feel like they have more to play for than the Lions.

Bills win 21-17.

Chicago -5 vs. Green Bay

I like the revenge angle for the Bears in this spot, who lost a devastating game to the Packers in week one.

Despite the firing of Mike McCarthy and their win last week, I still don’t have a ton of faith in Green Bay. Their roster is below average and they could be without OT Bryan Bulaga. Also, the Packers are 0-6 on the road this season.

Mitch Trubisky was erratic against the Rams, but I think he has a much better game here against a worse defense.

I’ll take Chicago to win 31-23.

New England -2.5 at Pittsburgh

This pick is an easy one for me. Betting on the Patriots after an embarrassing loss feels like I’m stealing money. I know the Steelers are better at home, but the Patriots have historically owned them, and Pittsburgh has been dysfunctional lately.

To put it simply, I trust Brady and Belichick far more than Big Ben and Tomlin

Patriots win 32-27.

Week Fourteen Record: 4-1

Season Record: 35-35