2018 NFL Best Bets Against the Spread – Week Twelve

Jake Benaquisto with his weekly NFL Best Bets…

Some thoughts on Week 11 of the NFL:

  1. I think we’re going to be talking about that Chiefs / Rams game for a long time. It was easily the best game of the season, and those young quarterbacks both looked like superstars. I wanted the Chiefs to win, but was happy that they were still able to cover the 3.5 points. 
  2. Pittsburgh didn’t cover, but their comeback win over the Jaguars was impressive. They came out flat and somehow were able to steal the game in the fourth quarter.
  3. The Colts are starting to become one of my favorite ‘NFL Sunday Ticket’ teams to watch. Andrew Luck finally has a strong offensive line in front of him and he’s been playing lights out. 

Carolina -3.5 vs. Seattle

This might be the game I’m most excited to watch this weekend. There are serious playoff implications, as both teams are fighting for a wild card spot in the NFC. Carolina is a coming off a game they should have won, and I think they’ll be motivated at home. In my opinion, they are the better team and should have no problem covering this spread.

Panthers win 31-26.

NY Giants +6 at Philadelphia

The Eagles’ secondary has been decimated by injuries. They’ll be without their top three cornerbacks against the Giants, which is great news for anyone with Odell Beckham on their fantasy team.

Although their last two wins came against the 49ers and Buccaneers, I actually like how the Giants have been playing the last few weeks. I can’t say the same about Philadelphia, who just got destroyed by the Saints. The Giants’ offensive line is still a concern, but if Eli has protection, I think their passing attack can pick apart this Eagles’ defense.

I’m taking the underdog Giants to go into Philadelphia and beat the Eagles, 27-26.

Indianapolis -7.5 vs. Miami

It’s always risky to lay more than a touchdown with any team, but I think the Colts are good enough to cover here. Indianapolis is getting hot at the perfect time, and their offense has scored 29 points or more in each of the last five games. I’m not convinced Miami will be able to score with the Colts, as they’ll be starting Ryan Tannehill with a banged-up throwing shoulder at quarterback.

Colts win easily, 36-23.

Oakland +10.5 at Baltimore

This pick could easily blow up in my face and make me look like an idiot. Betting on the 2018 Raiders should almost always be avoided, but I really do like them getting 10.5 points here against a rookie quarterback. Lamar Jackson could be really good, but this is only his second career start, and this pick is more about the number of points I’m getting.

I think Oakland covers the big spread, but the Ravens win the game, 17-10.

Green Bay +3.5 at Minnesota

I get Aaron Rodgers with the Packers’ season essentially on the line, AND I’m getting more than a field goal? Sign me up.

Minnesota might not be as good as everyone thought before the season started. If you look at their schedule, the Vikings’ most impressive win all year was against the Eagles, who are 4-6. I like Kirk Cousins, but he has yet to prove that he is worth the contract he was given this offseason.

I’m betting on the Packers to upset here and beat the Vikings in Minnesota, 28-24.

Week Eleven Record: 3-2

Season Record: 28-27