2018 NFL Best Bets Against the Spread – Week Eleven

Jake Benaquisto with his weekly NFL Best Bets…

My picks last week were very mediocre. I went 2-3 against the spread and only felt confident about one or two of the games. I like the lines much better this week and can feel another win streak coming. Here are a couple quick takes before I give my best bets:

  1. I wasn’t even surprised or upset that the Jets got embarrassed by the Bills at home. The Jets inexplicably haven’t fired him yet, but it’s clear that Todd Bowles is in over his head at this point and should not be a head coach in the NFL. 
  2. What happened to the Eagles? I thought for sure they’d win comfortably against Dallas last week and instead they got pushed around all game. I never expected their Super Bowl hangover to last this long, and now Washington is starting to run away with that division. 

Indianapolis -1.5 vs. Tennessee

If there’s one team that I think could go on a huge run down the stretch and make the playoffs, it’s the Colts. Their offensive line has suddenly become a strength after a couple years of addressing it early in the draft. Also, Andrew Luck is fully healthy, and he looks like the same player he was before the shoulder injury. I like the Titans, but I think this is a tough matchup for them after an emotional win against the Patriots. Colts win 28-24.

Atlanta -3.5 vs. Dallas

I bet on the Falcons last week and they lost to the Browns, but I like them to bounce back against Dallas. The Cowboys are one of the more inconsistent teams in the league. They have yet to win multiple games in a row this season and have mostly been a bad on the road. After beating the reigning Super Bowl champs, I think the Cowboys come out flat in this game. Falcons win 27-21.

Washington +3 vs. Houston

Houston has to lose at some point, right? I’ve been on the Redskins all season and now they’re getting points at home, which I love. It’s not that I think the Texans are a bad team, but their roster is too flawed to continue winning games like this. Give me Washington to win 24-23.

Pittsburgh -4.5 at Jacksonville

This feels like a revenge game for the Steelers, who lost to Jacksonville last year during the playoffs. Pittsburgh has won five games in a row and you could argue they are the hottest team in the NFL. The Jags played the Colts tough last week and almost came back to win, but that defense is not the unit it was in 2017. They’re also starting Ereck Flowers at LT, which means Blake Bortles could be dead by the second half. Steelers win in a blowout, 31-17.

Kansas City +3.5 at LA Rams

I might have stayed away from this line if the Chiefs were getting a point less, but I’ll happily take them at +3.5. I just don’t trust the Rams defense enough for them to lay more than a field goal. They’ve been awful against the run lately, and aside from Aaron Donald, their front does not get after the quarterback consistently. I’ll take the Chiefs to upset and win this game, 36-34.

Week Ten Record: 2-3

Season Record: 25-25