NFC North – 2018 Over Unders

Greg Armstrong with his 2018 NFC North Over Unders

Greg Armstrong continues his over/under series…

Chicago Bears: O/U 6.5 Wins

Da Bears have had quite the offseason. Kevin White looks back, they signed Trey “Philly Special” Burton and Allen Robinson in free agency, drafted Roquan Smith and oh yeah, they traded for KHALIL FREAKING MACK.

A lot of this depends on how Mitch Trubisky develops in his second season. If his progression is as high as most think, then the Bears could be a sneaky wild card team. Bringing in Matt Nagy as head coach and getting Trubisky weapons was huge. Their defense now has top ten potential. Chicago needed a second edge opposite of Leonard Floyd so they went out and got the best one in football.

This could be a stepping stone season for the Bears. It just so happens they’re playing in not only a loaded NFC conference but a loaded NFC North division. This is a team where their record is a product of the conference and division they’re in, not so much the team. I’ll take the under at six wins.

Under 6.5 Wins

Detroit Lions: O/U 7.5 Wins

Detroit has that feel of being stuck in football purgatory. Here’s there records in every year since 2010:

2010: 6-10

2011: 10-6

2012: 4-12

2013: 7-9

2014: 11-5

2015: 7-9

2016: 9-7

2017: 9-7

Over that stretch their record is 63-65 with three playoff appearances and 0 wins. Bringing in Matt Patricia for a defense that allowed the most points per game and was 27th in yards allowed per game last season should in theory help those stats but I’m still worried about having a first time head coach out there.

Matthew Stafford is going to throw for a ton of yards and the Lions will beat up on bad teams. Last season in games against teams with a winning record, they went a whopping 1-6. They have eight games against teams with a winning record from last season. I’m taking the under at 7-9.

Under 7.5 Wins

Green Bay Packers: O/U 10 Wins

Aaron Rodgers finally got his money and looks poised to have another Rodgers type season. Jordy Nelson is gone but Jimmy Graham is in. They have a wide receiver playing running back. Rodgers is one of a few guys that no matter who you put out there with him, he’s going to make things happen.

I’m very big on the defense this season. They drafted Jaire Alexander and Josh Jackson (two of my favorite players from this years draft) to help bolster a secondary that was 29th in passing yards allowed per game. They have a pretty good front seven. I don’t expect this defense to be world beaters but it will be vastly improved from last season.

When you put Aaron Rodgers out there, you have a chance to win every game. I don’t think I’m shocking anyone saying that. This division is going to come down to the Packers and the Vikings. I’m going to give the Vikings the nod for the division but the Packers still hit the over.

Over 10 Wins

Minnesota Vikings: O/U 10 Wins

A loaded team that was three quarters away from the Super Bowl last season got even better by swapping out Case Keenum for Kirk Cousins and adding Sheldon Richardson to an already stellar front seven.

Cousins has the chance to push this team over the hump and into the Super Bowl. But he might get killed before then because the Vikings offensive line does not look good at all and that’s putting it lightly. If that offensive line can hold up, they have weapons that can match up with any defense in the league. Dalvin Cook will also be back and by all accounts looked good in camp.

The defense is all world. A great front seven and a very good secondary will make it tough for any team to compete with them this season. If you’re going to beat this Vikings team, you are going to have to win in a dog fight. Give me the over and the division crown.

Over 10 Wins