AFC West – 2018 Over Unders

Greg Armstrong continues his over under series with the AFC West…

My NFL over under series continues with the AFC West. In a division that’s mostly wide open, there really only seems to be one team that is a step ahead of the rest.

Denver Broncos: O/U 7 Wins

For the first time in what seems like forever the Broncos have a quarterback. Case Keenum comes in and is immediately better than anything the Broncos have trotted out there for this decade. They actually have weapons on offense, a running game and the old heads of the offense Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas should see their seasons take an upswing having Keenum.

Denvers defense is still very good. I think they’re just a shade under elite. Bradley Chubb alongside Von Miller is going to be scary. They lost Aqib Talib but recouped some of the talent with Adam Jones. They’re going to get after the passer and still have enough on their back end to cover for extended periods when needed.

I’m high on Denver this year (insert weed joke here). Getting a quarterback allows them to do much more. Rolls Royce Freeman is going to have a good rookie season which gives them the running game they’ve so long needed. I’m taking the over.

Over 7 Wins

Kansas City Chiefs: O/U 8.5 Wins

Pat Mahomes! Oh yeah! We have no clue how Mahomes is going to fair in his first full season but I am Team Mahomes through and through. The Chiefs offense should be more dynamic with the skill set that Mahomes brings to the table: the ability to throw rockets on the run, throw the ball 75 yards in the air and an increase in athleticism over Alex Smith. He has the weapons to have a big year.

The ceiling of this Chiefs team is around 10-11 wins. They lost Marcus Peters but they got one of the best nickel corners in the game in Kendall Fuller back in the Smith trade. Andy Reid is going to have a field day with Mahomes. Their defense might not be as good but they’ll have the ability to outscore teams at will. I like the over and for them to win the division.

Over 8.5 Wins

Los Angeles Chargers: O/U 9.5 Wins

I want to like the Chargers this year. They get a healthy Mike Williams, another year of Ingram and Bosa and Derwin James looked phenomenal in preseason. But it’s the injuries. Bosa is hurt, Huntry Henry tore his ACL, the secondary is already banged up.

The Chargers are always the fun pick to make a run because they’re so talented and so experienced at key positions that the only thing they need to do is just stay healthy. They can’t seem to do that.

If they could stay healthy, they’d be my division winner. And this 9.5 over under reflects how good they are at full strength. I can’t envision this being the only big injuries they have this season. Take the under.

Under 9.5 Wins

Oakland Raiders: O/U 7.5 Wins

Jon Gruden is coaching in 2018. He’s ripped the roster up, signed old vets and traded away the best edge rusher in football on a defense that was already bad with him. Gruden hasn’t coached in over a decade and what is there to believe that he’s going to be a good coach this time around?

Having that bad of a defense means your offense is going to have to pick up the slack. I’m not a Derek Carr believer. Marshawn Lynch is on the last legs of his career and they have Doug Martin backing him up. There just isn’t a lot of guys on this offense that I believe in to keep up with the Kansas City’s, the New England’s and the Pittsburgh’s of the league.

Gruden is here for 10 years and I can’t see it lasting that long. Can you see him adjusting to the big changes in football? If he does it’ll be way after the fact. 7.5 wins is a bit high and the under is the easy play.

Under 7.5 Wins