Greg Armstrong wraps up his over/under series…
Houston Texans: O/U 8.5 Wins
The two biggest things for the Texans to hit this over is staying healthy and the offensive line holding up. Houston has such a bad offensive line but the somewhat silver lining is that Deshaun Watson can move and isn’t limited to having to stay in the pocket to succeed. 14-16 games of Watson is going to be fun for all
Injuries plagued this Texans last season. From Watson to J.J. Watt to Whitney Mercilus, this team was decimated with injuries to their best players in a year where they might have been a fringe playoff team if those guys didn’t get hurt.
Houston doesn’t have many tough stretches in their schedule. Their talent level is too high for them not to win at least eight games this season. I’m banking on them staying healthy, hitting the over and winning the division.
Over 8.5 Wins
Indianapolis Colts: O/U 6.5 Wins
This has to be a joke right? Six and a half wins for the Colts? This team is terrible. Sure, Andrew Luck is coming back but I want to see him play a couple of NFL games before we go back to speaking of him in the same tongue as 2015 Luck. Their secondary is god awful outside of Malik Hooker, they have very little depth and nobody on their offense outside of T.Y. Hilton is scaring opposing defenses. Taking the under is the easiest pick I’ve made in a while.
Under 6.5 Wins
Jacksonville Jaguars: O/U 9 Wins
Vegas sure loves to make me over analyze these prop bets until I want to bash my head on the desk. The Jaguars are built like a team that can make deep post season runs. They have a great front four, corners that you can rely on in man coverage and a strong running game. They showed it last season even with Blake Bortles as their quarterback.
We know what the Jaguars defense is. The offense is not so clear cut. Do we get a full or 75% of a season with Playoff Bortles? Or is the defense going to have to shoulder most of the work to keep this team in games. The Jaguars best bet is to rely on the run game and shut the other team down on defense. Despite having a first place schedule, I don’t think it’s all that tough. They don’t have any real tough stretches and their top tier opponents are all separated by a week or more.
For the sake of the exercise, I’ll take the over. I think they’re right around a nine win team and if I had to choose, I’d take the 10-6 over the 8-8.
Over 9 Wins
Tennessee Titans: O/U 8 Wins
Tennessee finally got rid of Mike Mularkey as their head coach and brought in Belichick disciple Mike Vrabel, who I think is going to be just fine as a head coach. I love Marcus Mariota being paired up with Matt LeFleur, who was under Sean McVay last year as offensive coordinator.
The Titans are a lot of peoples sleeper team to take that next step. I just don’t see it this year. They completely cleaned house personnel wise. In a division where Houston looks ready to take that next step and Jacksonville is looking like they’re on the brink of becoming perennial playoff contenders, the Titans just overhauled the coaching staff. Maybe they catch lightning in a bottle year one but I wouldn’t bet on it. Give me the under.
Under 8 Wins