AFC East – 2018 Over and Unders

Greg Armstrong with his AFC East over under picks for 2018…

Football is finally back and that means the best time to, now legally, gamble is here. Over the next week I’ll be going through every division giving you some picks for over/under bets. Today, I’ll start with the AFC East. (Odds courtesy of oddsshark.com)

Buffalo Bills: O/U 6.5 Wins

Ah, the good ole Buffalo Bills. Heading into the season with the quarterback depth of AJ McCarron, Nathan Peterman and Josh Allen strikes fear into exactly zero defenses they’ll face this season while on the flip side, strikes fear into every receiver that has to try to catch passes from them. The Bills have very little offensive weapons for whoever is under center. LeSean McCoy is most likely going to have to once again be the workhorse and he’s getting up there in age. Charles Clay is a good tight end, that’s my take. Other than that, there’s not a whole lot to work with.

Their pre-bye schedule is brutal. Getting rid of Tyrod Taylor, who wasn’t going to go out and win you a ton of games but he certainly wouldn’t lose you them, was a bad mistake for a team that made the playoffs last season. I do like their defense with Tre’Davious White in his second year and the Tremaine Edmunds pick. I don’t think they force as many turnovers as last season (tied for ninth in takeaways) and with the QB play as it stands, it’ll be a rough season.

Under 6.5 Wins

Miami Dolphins O/U 6.5 Wins

How many times are we going to do the “this is a make or break year for Ryan Tannehill” song and dance? I get he’s been hurt the last two seasons but we haven’t seen much of anything to convince us that he’s the guy or that he deserves the contract he got.

They lose their best offensive player in Jarvis Landry. They have Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore in the backfield but we don’t know what Drake can do as a full time RB while Gore simply will live forever and pick up four yards per attempt for the rest of eternity.

The Dolphins secondary is sneaky one of my favorite groups in the division. Adding Minkah Fitzpatrick to a group of Xavier Howard, Rashad Jones and Cordrea Tankersley is going to make them a tough unit to beat. For as good as I think their secondary is, the front seven is not all that great. Losing Suh isn’t huge considering he was doing whatever he wanted most of the plays so I don’t think that’ll impact Cameron Wake who, like Frank Gore, is going to get sacks for the rest of eternity.

Most of their tough matchups outside of the division are at home (Titans, Jaguars and Bears all travel to Hard Rock Stadium). But they’re going to be tested against good offensive teams. I think they hover around 6-7 wins so we’ll take the under to be safe.

Under 6.5 Wins

New England Patriots: O/U 11 Wins

For the first time since Drew Bledsoe was broken in two by Mo Lewis, the Patriots dynasty seems to be vulnerable. I’m sure there’s a Game of Thrones reference for the King falling but I don’t watch the show so use your imagination.

Until I see Brady actually decline and actually look his age instead of being a robot then I simply cannot take the under. Bill Belichick is the coach, Tom Brady is the quarterback and the Patriots are going to win the AFC East. The rest of the roster will fall into place. Don’t be a fool, pick the over.

Over 11 Wins

New York Jets: O/U 6 Wins

As some of you may know, this is a Jets centered website. I’m going to try to take my homer glasses off for the sake of this exercise.

For as much hype as Sam Darnold has gotten throughout camp and for as much as the mojo has appeared to change at One Jets Drive, we still need to see it translate into regular season wins. The framework is in place: a potential franchise quarterback, a slightly above average defense, a good receiving core and the best part is they’re all young.

They’re good enough to start off 3-1 through the first four games. Then it gets fun. They showed they can hang with anyone last season but being a young team, they didn’t know how to win those close games and execute in the fourth quarter. Another year under their belt should, in theory, change that trend. Again, we have to see it translate on the field.

Darnold starting at quarterback is what the plan should be. But for as good as he’s been in camp and from the reports we’ve heard about his progression so far, he’s still a rookie. The mistakes will be there. The turnovers will be there. And that’s okay. But just realize that that could cost the Jets a few wins which, in the grand scheme of things, we will most likely forget down the line.

I think this is a 7-8 win team today. What I’m looking for most this season is progression from the younger players and Darnold working through his mistakes.

Over 6 Wins