Week 14 Recap: Once again, I went 4-1 ATS, which puts my record for the season at 39-31. I’m not super confident about a lot of the lines this week, so I’m going with a safe route and sticking with mostly favorites.
Minnesota -10.5 vs. Cincinnati
10.5 is a big number, but I still think Minnesota can cover the spread. The Vikings hurt themselves with turnovers in a loss last week, so I’m expecting them to be pissed off and motivated. Mike Zimmer is one of the best coaches in the entire league, and in this matchup against his former team, I think he’ll have a solid game-plan prepared. Vikings win 27-13.
New England -3 at Pittsburgh
Whenever the Patriots lose in embarrassing fashion, you should automatically take them the next week, no matter the line. Since 2003, New England is 37-13 against the spread coming off of a loss. They’re getting back Gronk this week and match up well against the Steelers, especially with Ryan Shazier out. In what might be the best game of the week, I’m taking the Patriots to win in a shootout, 34-30.
San Francisco -1.5 vs. Tennessee
Is there any room on the Jimmy G bandwagon? Despite being 3-10, the 49ers look like an entirely new team since Garoppolo has taken over. This will be his first start in San Francisco, so I think the home crowd can be a huge advantage in this game. Meanwhile, the Titans are trending downward and seem to be overvalued because of their record. I think San Francisco keeps on rolling and wins this one, 23-19.
Dallas -3.5 at Oakland
The Cowboys are somewhat under the radar because of their record, but they’re still very much in the NFC playoff hunt. If they can manage to win this game, they’ll have a real chance to finish the season strong with Ezekiel Elliot returning next week. Oakland, on the other hand, has been unreliable all season. Their schedule to finish the year is brutal, and at this point, it’s very unlikely that they make the postseason. I’ll take Dallas to win this one, 30-20.
Tampa Bay +6.5 vs. Atlanta
Matt Ryan absolutely stunk against the Saints last week, but the Falcons’ defense stepped up and managed to win the game. Although the Buccaneers aren’t playing for a postseason bid, a win this week would likely knock their division rival out of contention. Atlanta is still the better team, but they’re inconsistent and should not be laying 6.5 on the road. I’ll take the Falcons to win in a close game, 26-22.
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