Week 11 Recap: I went 4-1 on my picks, which puts my record at 29-26. Let’s hope the Gambling Gods are on my side again this weekend as we head into Week 12.
Miami +16.5 at New England
The Patriots are coming off two blowout wins on the road, so I think they’re due for a close game. Miami will be without Jay Cutler due to an injury, which honestly could be a blessing in disguise. Matt Moore is a capable backup, and I think Miami’s weapons on offense are good enough to keep them in this game. I’ll take the Dolphins to cover the spread, but the Pats win 31-20.
Buffalo +9.5 at Kansas City
Despite the foolish decision to bench Tyrod Taylor last week, the Bills are still in playoff contention at 5-5. This week, they’re traveling to KC and are going up against a Chiefs team that seems to be regressing every week. After starting off the season at 5-0, Kansas City has lost four of their last five. The Chiefs are still a much better team in this matchup, but they shouldn’t be laying 9.5 points. Kansas City wins 23-17.
Indianapolis +3.5 vs. Tennessee
They might not get a lot of attention, but the Colts have actually been playing decent football lately. Indianapolis has covered in each of their last three games, and at home this season, they are 4-1 against the spread. I’m taking the Colts to upset the Titans here and win outright, 23-20.
Jacksonville -5 at Arizona
I like the Jags here to spoil the much anticipated Blaine Gabbert revenge game. According to Football Outsiders, Jacksonville’s defense ranks second in defensive DVOA, and they lead the league in total sacks with 40. Gabbert should be under pressure for the majority of the game, and the Jaguars will be able to lean on their running game as soon as they get a lead. Jacksonville wins this one easily, 24-7.
Oakland -4.5 vs. Denver
Unfortunately, we can no longer bet against Brock Osweilier, but Paxton Lynch might be the next best thing. As bad as the Raiders defense is, I’m not sure that Denver has a QB on their roster that is good enough to take advantage of it. With the AFC West being wide open, I expect Oakland to take care of business at home and keep their playoff hopes alive. Raiders win 26-14.
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