TOJ Four Quarters: Long Winded Thoughts On New York Jets

Dalbin Osorio

In this new bi-weekly article series, I take a 12-line look at 4 topics that #JetsTwitter has tweeted about that has caught my eye. If I favorite your tweet, it’s probably because I thought your tweet was either so on point 100 emojis wouldn’t suffice or so crazy that an “I see” wasn’t enough. Let’s kick this thing right off with quarter number one…

First Quarter

Think about how different you would’ve felt about this past season if the New York Jets had drafted Paxton Lynch and Deion Jones last year instead of Darron Lee and Christian Hackenberg. Instead of having to trot Ryan Fitzpatrick out there repeatedly with no hope for the future, the Jets could’ve held firm to their plan to develop Lynch ()instead of Hackenberg) with an eye towards this season becoming the starting QB. Jones was better than Lee last year, and would make moving on from David Harris much easier to do considering Jones would’ve shown you enough.

A defense led by Leonard Williams, Muhammed Wilkerson, Jones, and Jordan Jenkins is much more exciting, and when you couple that with an offense led by Paxton Lynch, Quincy Enunwa, Brian Winters, and Robby Anderson then you have the makings of a true rebuild with young pieces that can grow together. With Lynch and Jones the picks last year, then the Jets could take a player like Dalvin Cook at #6. Instead, every position is arguably on the table right now as we barrel towards the draft. It’s more evidence that the draft is the ultimate crapshoot and that one pick not immediately working out can really throw your plans for the next draft for a loop. Its why you see guys like Reuben Foster mentioned as options for the Jets.

Second Quarter

With that thought process, imagine if the Jets had not drafted Leonard Williams and instead taken Marcus Peters the year before. A lot of people like to harp on Vic Beasley needing to be the pick and, while I love Beasley, I would have taken Peters at #6 had Williams been off the board. I loved the Leo pick because at that point there was no guarantee Wilkerson or Richardson would be on the team. With that said, say the Jets core defense entering this offseason would be Peters, Jones, Jenkins, Wilkerson, and Richardson.

How much easier would it be for the Jets to move on from Darrelle Revis knowing they have a shutdown corner waiting in the wings? This would allow them to add a player like Derek Barnett to be the edge rusher they’ve needed for a long time, or the playmaking safety in Malik Hooker or Jamal Adams. It’s a different looking defense for sure, and the middle of the Jets defense in particular with Wilkerson, Adams, and Jones becomes one of the better and younger middles in the NFL. It’s partly why I laugh when people say the Jets shouldn’t take a defensive player in round one and point to Williams like the better alternative wouldn’t have been a defensive player. The Jets just need to take the right guys, regardless of what side of the ball they play.

Third Quarter

Continuing THAT thought process, I would take Jamal Adams at 6 because I think he’s the best player in the draft and he brings something to the back end of the Jets defense that they haven’t had in forever. I wouldn’t take Solomon Thomas because he looks like a guy that ends up overdrafted and never produces. You’ll see alot of people talk up Thomas’s impressive measurables but I wouldn’t touch him at 6 when there are guys that will be more productive.

You know who else probably has a chance to do that? Marshon Lattimore from Ohio State. Darrelle Revis is the best corner i’ve ever watched college film on, with Marcus Peters a close second. Prediciting cornerback success for college prospects is tough if you’re not a once in a generation talent like Revis and Peters. The next level guys, like Eli Apple (who was very good last year) or Jalen Ramsey (also good), have their success hindering on ALOT of other things (in the case above Apple more than Ramsey). I always question guys that skyrocket up boards or when people’s scouting opinions change so drastically because someone else is now pushing that prospect. Stick to your opinions and use additional film to either supplement or improve upon your vision of that prospect. Otherwise, you end up with so many different thoughts about a prospect within one scouting report. And then it gets weird.

Fourth Quarter

I can’t remember a more polarizing QB in a draft than Christian Hackenberg over the last almost decade, and that doesn’t change just because the Jets drafted him. Over the span Johnny Manziel, Geno Smith, another Carr, and multiple QBs were taken but none had the questions Hackenberg did. A lot of that has to do with the spot he was taken in, and Jet fans have flocked to both call the guy a bust and label him the messiah all within the same season.

He hasn’t played yet, and him turning into a franchise player would really make Maccagnan and Bowles’s job that much easier because there is no substitute for having a franchise QB. I know me personally, I hope Hackenberg is successful and he very well might be. I just don’t think it will happen, and I would hate for the Jets to pass on a better prospect like Deshaun Watson or Patrick Mahomes because they think Hackenberg is a sure thing. It’s actually kind of similar to the Jet fans who, with the benefit of hindsight, hate that the Jets passed on Derek Carr (who wasn’t very good coming out) because Geno Smith had just completed a really good end to his rookie season. The difference is that Smith actually showed you something, whereas Hackenberg has shown you absolutely nada. The Jets have a plan though, and we will find out how hellbent on sticking to it they are.

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Author: Dalbin Osorio

Dalbin Osorio is a Case Planner for Graham-Windham, New York's oldest child welfare agency. He is, also, a student at the Silberman School of Social Work at Hunter College. Dalbin graduated from Monroe College with a degree in Business Administration. A 3 sport utility man in high school (think a mix of Jerome WIlliams, Brad Smith, and Jayson Nix), he joined TOJ in 2013.

  • DLC

    I give you a lot of credit for your point of view and the assumptions the seem to be behind them. Specifically, you clearly understand that the draft is, as you said, a crap shoot, and no exact way to predict how players will fare in the NFL exists. That’s why nobody, and I mean NOBODY, bats 1.000 in their drafting records. People say they understand that, but then they still go ahead and crucify GMs by second guessing them.

    I have 2 things, though, that I would remind you about that are CRITICALLY important.

    First, playing the “what if” game is really interesting and can be very instructive and useful, but doing it too much will not only drive fans crazy, it can actually do damage to competent football people by creating an undeserved negative impression about them. These impressions can even derail their careers, especially in a volatile market like NYC, where impatience is par for the course. I don’t disagree that Jones would be an intriguing piece in the Jets Defense, but I highly doubt he would have had the impact in NY that he’s had in Atlanta. First, NY runs a 3-4, and Jones played in a 4-3. Although his skill set would seem to translate to an OLB in a 3-4, that’s still a big difference. Also, he played with a really good secondary. Having people who can cover well behind you makes life a lot easier for and Edge rusher to actually get into the Offensive backfield to make plays. If he was playing with our DBs in 2016, he wouldn’t have had the success, and instead of the fast player he is, he might have been viewed as a draft bust who wasn’t getting it done. Who knows?

    The Jets have two guys in Bowles and Maccagnan who both have expertise and experience in evaluating talent. They ain’t gonna be perfect because nobody is, but the early returns are encouraging. The only confirmed bust I can think if as a draft pick has been Jarvis Harrison, and a lot of the new blood (D. Simon, C. Peake, B. Shell, R. Anderson, J. Marshall, J. Jenkins, L. Mauldin, J. Burris, F. Bishop, of course L. Williams, and yes, even D. Lee) have shown good promise or more. Edwards had an up and down year, but he was better than what we had. D. Smith has had bad injury luck, but you can’t blame the GM for not having a crystal ball, and he had no history of injury issues at Ohio State. And the jury’s still out on Hackenberg and Petty, but QBs are a special case: there aren’t enough to go around, and unless you want to take a huge gamble a la Brock Osweiler, you gotta keep drafting them til you find one. So it’s fine to say “If this…” or “If that…”, but I can say “If my Aunt had a set of testicles, she’d be my Uncle.” True enough, but that’s a mighty big if.

    Maccagnan an Bowles seem to be doing fine. They’re both rookies on the job, they’re gonna make mistakes, but they’ll figure things out.

    The second caveat I have for you is this: Don’t make the mistake of forgetting that players entering the NFL have to be developed. That’s why you can’t really assess a draft class until at least 3 years have gone by. And that’s also the same mistake that so many people who hhave been running the Jets before Maccagnan and Bowles have made. Geno Smith didn’t belong starting as a rookie. He was a spread QB in college who was coming into a pro offense that ran a West Coast system. He wasn’t ready to make that transition on day one. He’s certainly proved to have a lot of flaws, especially maturity issues, but ultimately, I feel so or for the kid because he had no development plan in place. That falls on Rex and even moreso on Idzik. Idzik spent $5 Million to sign Michael Vick, but when Rex wanted to bench Geno for Vick when Geno was struggling, Idzik overruled him. What an idiot. Same type of thing with Dee Millner. He was a great prospect, but he faced a steep learning curve in the NFL because of the position he played and because he came from a program where the CBs weren’t even required to know how to backpedal! And when Idzik had a chance to bring Revis back for a sing so he could mentor the kid and others like Dex McDougle, he said no and let him go to New England. What a dope.

    Maccagnan and Bowles seem to understand that if you want a young player in the NFL to develop, you have to have a plan to do so, and you actually have to execute the plan. Make sure you point that out in your articles because as obvious as that point seems, most fans and analysts in NY seem to miss it.

    I’m not trying to be overly critical here. As I said, you seem to understand a lot if things that escape most Jets analysts. I really enjoyed this piece, and I’ll definitely be looking forward to reading more of your work.

  • sb3champs

    Then why keep Hack and let Geno walk?

  • phshaw

    Strange article. Carr was much better coming out of Fresno than you posited. Saw MANY hook ups between him and Devante Adams. The Geno pick was a disaster from the moment it left Chrebet’s mouth. I was driving in my car when I heard the announcement and was sooo ticked off. I much preferred Glennon as a prospect. That said, I would try for Glennon as a FA or McCarron as a trade. Both are a 2 year hedge on Hackenberg…who I watched in college and didn’t think was as worthless as some make him out to be. With him, it will come down to how badly he wants it. If he has half of Brady’s tenacity as a young QB, he’ll do fine.