NFL Fantasy Football Breakdown – Week 1

Alex Kaczynski with a week 1 NFL fantasy football breakdown…

Week one is the biggest wild card when it comes to fantasy football. This is who we are buying and selling to kick off the season….

Buy: RB – Spencer Ware

Jamaal Charles is most likely not going to play this week against San Diego, but even if he does play, he is going to be given a minimal work load. Ware is the next in line to fill his spot. San Diego has a brutal run defense, even with the addition of Joey Bosa, I do not see Ware’s production being slowed down. He can catch, he has speed and they are playing at home. All positives to start Ware in your fantasy league or pick him up on DFS. At those prices, he is going to be heavily owned but it is worth it for that bargain. Reminder, one of his biggest games last year was against the Chargers. 

Buy: QB – Matthew Stafford

I would also recommend taking any WR on the Lions this week because in my opinion the Colts might have the worst secondary in the league and I expect Stafford to throw all over them. With the thought that Luck is looking to make a statement out of the gate because of what happened last season, this could be an absolute shootout between the two teams, but with Stafford’s lower price tag, he would get the nod from me. They are going to be throwing early and often and even with a Calvin Johnson-less offense, I expect Stafford to still dominate the game.

Buy: Derek Carr, QB, Oakland Raiders

Second year man Derek Carr starts out his 2016 campaign against the New Orleans Saints. Carr has a great matchup against a Saints defense that should be one of the worst in the NFL. The Saints will be struggling to find an answer for Amari Cooper, which will most likely open up the rest of the passing game for Michael Crabtree, Andre Holmes, and Clive Walford. I expect this game to be a high scoring shootout and wouldn’t be shocked to see Carr be a top five scoring QB this week.

Buy: Alshon Jeffrey, WR, Chicago Bears

On an offense that is lacking any real threat, Alshon Jeffery will be the center piece for Jay Cutler this season. Against a high-powered Texans offense, I think the Bears will be throwing the ball a lot to stay competitive and will be force feeding Jeffery the ball. Houston’s defense allowed the third most passing yards in 2015 and with an injured J.J. Watt, they will likely not be at full strength.

Sell: WR – AJ Green

I may be a little biased with this pick because they are playing the Jets this week but hear me out. Green is going to be the lone weapon in the air. Tyler Eifiert is not going to be playing this week and with Brandon LaFell as the #2. I expect the Jets D not to give Green the light of day out there while the front seven holds down the run game.

Sell: All New England Running Backs

Your guess would be as good as mine for how the running back situation is going to be ran up in New England. Bill Belichick is as unpredictable as they come and always finds a way to get a ‘nobody’ to produce yards and we won’t hear from them for weeks after. Personally, I would stay away from any New England running back for the time being. With the QB situation iffy for the first 4 games. Wait until someone is established before heading into that direction. Plus they are playing Arizona. 

Sell: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers

Cam Newton gets a chance at revenge against the Denver Broncos in a Super Bowl rematch on Thursday Night Football. The defense that Denver rode to a Super Bowl victory is going to be one of the best units in the league again and to be honest, I’d probably sit the majority of players going against Von Miller and company. It’s going to be hard for those who drafted him early, but I think you could easily find a better matchup with QB’s on your leagues waiver wire like Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jameis Winston, and Alex Smith.

Sell: Jarvis Landry, WR, Miami Dolphins

Similar to my reasoning behind selling Cam Newton this week, I’m not a big fan of Jarvis Landry’s matchup versus the Seattle Seahawks. Landry is by far the best player on Miami’s offense and Pete Carroll will do whatever he can to schematically shut him down. Add in the fact that this game is in Seattle and the matchup gets even tougher for Landry and the Dolphin’s offense.

Here is our most optimal FanDuel lineup.

  • QB – Dak Prescott $5,000
  • RB – Spencer Ware $5,400
  • RB – Latavius Murray $6,600
  • WR – Antonio Brown $9,300
  • WR – Odell Beckham Jr. $9,100
  • WR – Julio Jones $9,000
  • TE – Delanie Walker $6,500
  • K – Steven Hauschka $4,800

Photo Credit: NewYorkJets.com