The Degenerate’s Guide to NFL Week One

Mike Nolan with your guide to fantasy, daily fantasy and gambling for week one of the NFL season

Mike Nolan is here to get you ready for all of today’s action with a look at the best fantasy, DFS and picks against the line for week 1…

Fantasy Turn Ons

Sam Bradford, Eagles @ Falcons – I have been on the Sam Bradford bandwagon since the Eagles traded for him in March. He looked great (although immobile) in the preseason. The Falcon’s D will be improved under Dan Quinn, but they won’t be able to stop the Eagles high octane attack. This will be a high scoring affair and Bradford won’t leave opportunities on the field like Sanchez and Foles have done in the past.

Chris Ivory, Jets vs. Browns – The Browns were one of the worst defenses against the run last season. While I expect the Browns D to improve after adding Danny Shelton, the Jets and Ivory have looked good running the football in Chan Gailey’s Pro/Spread system. I expect Ivory to break a few big runs and put a couple in the end zone.

Jarvis Landry, Dolphins @ Redskins – I love this match up for the Dolphins passing attack. The biggest beneficiary should be one of the league’s most underrated receivers in Jarvis Landry who quietly finished his rookie campaign with 84 catches. Jarvis is one of the league’s biggest testaments to how overrated the NFL combine is. Don’t make the same mistake and overlook him on your fantasy squad.

Julio Jones, Falcons vs. Eagles – This game should be a shootout and with the Eagles up tempo offense, Julio should get plenty of opportunities. I love Julio in Kyle Shanahan’s offense as he will see even more targets this year at the X Receiver position. Whenever the first team played in the preseason, they literally threw to him every play.

Greg Olsen, Panthers @ Jaguars – Olsen should be a target machine this year as Cam Newton has no one else on the field that he can complete a pass to.

Others: Tony Romo, Ryan Tannehill, Jeremy Hill, DeMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews, Jeremy Maclin, Martellus Bennett, Jets D

Fantasy Turn Offs

Russell Wilson, Seahawks @ Rams – I flat out hate this match up for the Seahawks and could easily see an upset in Week One. Sure Wilson will probably get his rushing yards, but with a bad offensive line he will struggle to make plays down the field and off play action.

Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks @ Rams – Lynch consistently leads the league in yards after contact because below average offensive lines often allow him to get hit at the line of scrimmage. This group may be the worst offensive line of the Lynch era. Expect the rams front 7, especially Aaron Donald, to eat up this line.

Justin Forsett, Ravens @ Broncos – I like Forsett for the season and don’t necessarily hate him here, but I do think he will struggle on the ground with a tough match up against the Broncos front 7. I wouldn’t be surprised if he caught more passes so he could make up for his struggles in PPR leagues.

Alshon Jeffrey, Bears vs. Packers – Jeffrey has a lot to overcome. He has injury issues, no Brandon Marshall, and Jay Cutler is still his quarterback. Cutler is the type of quarterback that would rather throw a 9 yard pass on 3rd and 10 so he can get off the field. I don’t expect much of Jeffrey this week.

Jimmy Graham, Seahawks @ Rams – Seeing a trend here? Again I hate this match up and don’t think Wilson will be able to get him the ball with pressure in his face all day and the Rams keying on Graham.

Other Turn Offs: Peyton Manning, Jay Cutler, Alfred Morris, Carlos Hyde, Sammy Watkins, DeSean Jackson, Cardinals D

One Day Fantasy Team of the Week

QB – Ryan Tannehill ($8,000)
RB – DeMarco Murray ($8,500)
RB – Lamar Miller ($7,300)
WR – Jeremy Maclin ($7,600)
WR – Jarvis Landry ($6,900)
WR – Jordan Matthews ($6,800)
TE – Kyle Rudolph ($5,300)
K – Mason Crosby ($5,100)
DEF – Jets Defense ($4,400)

Analysis: Might have way too many Dolphins going this week, but I love their match up against the Redskins D. Taking a flyer on Rudolph, but Vikings targeted TE’s a ton without him last year and has a good match up against 49ers. Thought I got great value for Landry and Matthews this week and couldn’t pass up on them.

Picks of the Week

Browns @ Jets Under (40) – Should be a low scoring affair with serious potential of the Browns being held out of the endzone.

Rams (+4.5) vs. Seahawks – This is one of my two underdog plays of the week. The Seahawks offensive line is not good and Rams D should be playing on the other side of the line all day. The under could be a good play here too.

Bills (+3) vs Colts – Jets fans will hate this pick, but the public is all over the Colts and yet the line is either staying put at some books or dropping to 2.5 at others. I’m going with the smart money and taking Rex Ryan’s Bills at home.

Packers (-7) @ Bears – Despite the coaching change the Bears are just not good. I think Rodgers and company will dominate the Bears D despite not having Jordy Nelson. Expect the Bears to play from behind early so we can all watch Cutler check down every play.

Survivor Picks of the Week – New York Jets, Green Bay Packers

Author: Mike "Tiny" Nolan

Mike is a graduate of Muhlenberg College where he was a team captain and All-American Center on the football team. Mike is a former NFL Films employee where he was a PA for the NFL Network shows Playbook and Total Access. He also worked at NBC Sports and now does some free lance producing for them. He lives in the Philadelphia area where he is a football coach at The Haverford School.