TOJ Week 7 NFL Gambling Advice and Picks

Well, after a hot start to the season, my #FadeFlorio strategy has shifted to #FadeDonnelly and that’s just no fun at all. I mean, if I can’t pick games better than freaking Mike Florio then I might as well pack up shop and get out of here. For the time being, I’m still ahead on the season, despite going a Florio-ian 4-11 last week against the spread including losing all 5 of my “best bets”. But for the first time all year, my record has dipped below .500 and I’m 1-9 on my last 10 “best bets” which has not only made me sad, but made me a good deal lighter in the wallet. Damn it. 

On the bright side, I have reason to believe this is the week things turn back around and order is restored. Florio has a whopping 14 out of 15 favorites this week, which NEVER works out well. The dogs are going to be barking this week, and we’re already off to a good start as the Jets easily covered over the Patriots. Heed my advice when placing your bets this week. The dogs are barking.

Jets +10 @ Patriots – Geno Smith managed to avoid throwing a backbreaking pick-6 to allow the Patriots to cover like he did a week prior, so that was pretty cool. 1-0 this week! Things are turning around! Florio pick: Patriots -10

Ravens -7 vs. Falcons – Matt Ryan Outdoors Alert! Matt Ryan Outdoors Alert! That’s just an auto-bet at this point. Florio pick: Ravens -7

Titans +5 @ Redskins

Vikings +7 @ Bills

Bengals +3.5 @ Colts

Dolphins +3 @ Bears – All four of these games fall under the #FadeFlorio and #DogsAreBarking rules. And yes, I’m whipping out the hashtags this week to try and reverse my fortunes. #WinBets. Florio picks: Redskins, Bills, Colts, Bears

Rams +7 vs. Seahawks – Tough times in Seattle right now after losing last week and then trading their most explosive player on the Friday before a game. Supposedly, several players were very upset about the trade, and well, I’m just not going to lay this many points with them right now. (Thinks about watching Austin Davis down by 30 in the 4th quarter against this defense…) Ahhh, damn it. I’m still sticking with them. Florio pick: Seahawks -7

Jaguars +5 vs. Browns – The Browns won their personal Super Bowl last week when they demolished the Steelers at home. Now they travel to play against the lowly Jaguars in a prime letdown spot if I’ve ever seen one. Plus, the Jags have so few opportunities to actually win a game that they have to take advantage of them. This is one of those games. Florio pick: Browns -5

Saints +1 @ Lions – Have we realized that Matt Stafford sucks yet? Can we all agree on this? Without Calvin Johnson in the lineup bailing him out, he’s been pedestrian this year and his numbers are down across the board. The Saints are coming off a bye, Mark Ingram is returning to the lineup, and Jimmy Graham is going to tough it out and play with an injury. I think they win this game. They need it more. Florio pick: Saints +1

Bonus pick: NO/Det Under 47.5 Florio has the total of this game at 61. I’ll go with the under in a situation like that.

Panthers +7.5 @ Packers – I do not feel confident in this one, I’ll say that much. I could absolutely see several Rodgers to Nelson bombs in this one, and that would suck. How’s that for analysis?? Florio pick: Packers -7.5

Chiefs +3 @ Chargers – Andy Reid is something like 500-1 when coming off a bye (all numbers approximate), so I’m not going to go against him in this spot here. Not only do the Chiefs cover today, but Andy remembers to actually give Jamaal Charles the ball enough times to get the win. Florio pick: Chargers -3

Raiders +3.5 vs. Cardinals – Sure, why not. Florio pick: Cardinals -3.5

Giants +6.5 @ Cowboys – This is my favorite game of the week. Let’s see what we have here: The Giants humiliated themselves on national television last week and now everyone thinks they’re back to sucking again. At the same time, the Cowboys went into Seattle and basically beat the crap out of the champs on both sides of the ball. This is a classic case of one team looking a little too good and one team looking a little (or a lot) too bad just a week ago and the line being inflated as a result. Florio pick: Cowboys -6.5

49ers +7.5 @ Broncos – Just seems like too many points, right? Florio pick: Broncos -7.5

Steelers -3 vs. Texans – Oh great, we get to watch these two crappy teams play on prime time Monday night and have the announcers fawn over JJ Watt for 6 hours including the pregame shows. Great…. Florio pick: Steelers -3

Best Bets: Giants +6.5, Chiefs +3, Bengals +3.5, Jaguars +5, Saints +1

Teaser of the Week: 2 Team/ 7 Point: Bengals +10.5 / Giants +13.5

Last Week: 4-11 Overall, 0-5 Best Bets, 0-1 Teasers. Florio 9-6

Season: 43-46-2 Overall, 15-15 Best Bets, 4-2 Teasers. Florio 40-49-2

Author: Mike Donnelly

Mike Donnelly is a Staff Writer and life-long Jets fan, who was previously a featured columnist at multiple other New York Jets and fantasy football websites. He lives and works in finance in the NYC area and will help lead our Jets and NFL coverage in 2013.