TOJ Week 6 NFL Gambling Advice and Picks

Mike Donnelly of TOJ gives his NFL Gambling advice for week 6 and makes picks.

After Mike Florio had his best week of the season in Week 5, I thought about switching it up and finding a different horrible FOOTBALL GUY to fade for this week. The #FadeFlorio campaign hit a temporary snag as Mr. PFT went a very healthy 8-6-1 against the spread, while I stumbled with a 7-7-1 record and an atrocious 1-4 with my Best Bets. To make matters even worse, I lost my first teaser of the season, which sucked. 

For this week, I thought about using Pete Prisco, Mike Freeman, or basically anyone from Bleacher Report to fade here, but then I read Florio’s weekly picks post. The guy couldn’t be more confident in himself right now and that’s exactly what I was hoping for. He was tooting his own horn and that can only mean one thing: He’s due for a disaster week. It’s basically a guarantee. This should be fun, so let’s get started and make some bucks. 

Texans +3 vs. Colts – I am just absolutely awful at picking these Thursday games. Damn it. Florio pick: Colts -3

Bills +1 vs. Patriots – This spread opened at 3, and despite the majority of bets coming in on the Patriots off their domination of the Bengals last week on prime time, the line went in the other direction down to 1. Hmmmmm… after a week of “Tom Brady is back!” stories, everyone is feeling a little too good about the Patriots as if they don’t still have a horrific offensive line and no receivers. The Bills defensive line will be all over Tommy Boy this week and I think they’ll win this game. Florio pick: Patriots -1

Panthers +7.5 @ Bengals – I would have been on the Bengals this week after they laid a ridiculous egg last week, but AJ Green being out scares me. This feels like too many points, so I’ll take them and watch the Bengals win by 4. Florio pick: Bengals -7.5

Steelers PK @ Browns – Until proven otherwise, I have no reason to back the Browns in a game like this. Their defense under “defensive guru” Mike Pettine is downright terrible, and you can’t expect Brian Hoyer to keep leading these 4th quarter comebacks. Florio pick: Browns

Dolphins +3 vs. Packers – Oh man, I only have to lay 3 with Aaron Rodgers against the crappy Dolphins? Seems too good to be true! Yeah, that’s cuz it is, and I’m not taking the bait on this one. Dolphins win outright. Florio pick: Packers -3

Vikings -1 vs. Lions – Ohhh yeah, this is my kind of game. For this week’s gambling article I was thinking about writing up my gambling rules and the kinds of games I look for because I had some people asking if I have strategies. Well, I do. And one of them is to look real hard at teams that got blown out in their last game. The Vikings were embarrassed with Christian Ponder under center, but Teddy Bridgewater is back this week and they had extra time to prepare for this game. The Lions, meanwhile, will be without Calvin Johnson, and I don’t think this game will even be particularly close. Florio pick: Vikings -1

Jets +10.5 vs. Broncos – This is a classic Jets double FU game to their fans. After last week’s disaster performance in San Diego, the fans have turned on the team in a big way. There will be an awful lot of Jets fans betting on the Broncos in this one, and then they’re going to hate the team twice as much when the Jets lead for most of the game and blow it at the very end. Lose your bet, lose the game. Nothing worse than that. Florio pick: Broncos -10.5

Bucs +3.5 vs. Ravens

Raiders +8 vs. Chargers

Redskins +4 @ Cardinals

Bears +3 @ Falcons – All 4 of these games = #FadeFlorio. (Florio picks: Ravens, Chargers, Cardinals, Falcons)

Jaguars +4.5 @ Titans

After Mike Florio had his best week of the season in Week 5, I thought about switching it up and finding a different horrible FOOTBALL GUY to fade for this week. The #FadeFlorio campaign hit a temporary snag as Mr. PFT went a very healthy 8-6-1 against the spread, while I stumbled with a 7-7-1 record and an atrocious 1-4 with my Best Bets. To make matters even worse, I lost my first teaser of the season, which sucked. 

For this week, I thought about using Pete Prisco, Mike Freeman, or basically anyone from Bleacher Report to fade here, but then I read Florio’s weekly picks post. The guy couldn’t be more confident in himself right now and that’s exactly what I was hoping for. He was tooting his own horn and that can only mean one thing: He’s due for a disaster week. It’s basically a guarantee. This should be fun, so let’s get started and make some bucks. 

Texans +3 vs. Colts – I am just absolutely awful at picking these Thursday games. Damn it. Florio pick: Colts -3

Bills +1 vs. Patriots – This spread opened at 3, and despite the majority of bets coming in on the Patriots off their domination of the Bengals last week on prime time, the line went in the other direction down to 1. Hmmmmm… after a week of “Tom Brady is back!” stories, everyone is feeling a little too good about the Patriots as if they don’t still have a horrific offensive line and no receivers. The Bills defensive line will be all over Tommy Boy this week and I think they’ll win this game. Florio pick: Patriots -1

Panthers +7.5 @ Bengals – I would have been on the Bengals this week after they laid a ridiculous egg last week, but AJ Green being out scares me. This feels like too many points, so I’ll take them and watch the Bengals win by 4. Florio pick: Bengals -7.5

Steelers PK @ Browns – Until proven otherwise, I have no reason to back the Browns in a game like this. Their defense under “defensive guru” Mike Pettine is downright terrible, and you can’t expect Brian Hoyer to keep leading these 4th quarter comebacks. Florio pick: Browns

Dolphins +3 vs. Packers – Oh man, I only have to lay 3 with Aaron Rodgers against the crappy Dolphins? Seems too good to be true! Yeah, that’s cuz it is, and I’m not taking the bait on this one. Dolphins win outright. Florio pick: Packers -3

Vikings -1 vs. Lions – Ohhh yeah, this is my kind of game. For this week’s gambling article I was thinking about writing up my gambling rules and the kinds of games I look for because I had some people asking if I have strategies. Well, I do. And one of them is to look real hard at teams that got blown out in their last game. The Vikings were embarrassed with Christian Ponder under center, but Teddy Bridgewater is back this week and they had extra time to prepare for this game. The Lions, meanwhile, will be without Calvin Johnson, and I don’t think this game will even be particularly close. Florio pick: Vikings -1

Jets +10.5 vs. Broncos – This is a classic Jets double FU game to their fans. After last week’s disaster performance in San Diego, the fans have turned on the team in a big way. There will be an awful lot of Jets fans betting on the Broncos in this one, and then they’re going to hate the team twice as much when the Jets lead for most of the game and blow it at the very end. Lose your bet, lose the game. Nothing worse than that. Florio pick: Broncos -10.5

Bucs +3.5 vs. Ravens

Raiders +8 vs. Chargers

Redskins +4 @ Cardinals

Bears +3 @ Falcons – All 4 of these games = #FadeFlorio. (Florio picks: Ravens, Chargers, Cardinals, Falcons)

Jaguars +4.5 @ Titans – This is probably the Jaguars best chance for a win, and they know it. They’re going to give it all they have in this one and while they may not pull out the win, they’ll keep it close. Besides, do you want to be watching this game in the 4th quarter and knowing you have your money on Charlie Freakin’ Whitehurst?! Florio pick: Jaguars +4.5

Seahawks -9.5 vs. Cowboys – Seahawks at home are basically an automatic bet at this point. But feel free to throw them into a teaser this week and watch them roll. Florio pick: Seahawks -9.5

Giants +2.5 @ Eagles – This could be the game where Nick Foles gets exposed big time for the world to see. He’s been absolutely terrible this year but his fantasy stats still look good so nobody seems to know or care. Giants win this one. Florio pick: Giants +2.5

Rams +3 vs. 49ers – How bout one more #FadeFlorio for the road? This is going to be a good week. Florio pick: 49ers -3

Best Bets: Bills +1, Vikings -1, Dolphins +3, Steelers PK, Giants +2.5

Teaser of the Week: 3 Team/10 Point – Seahawks +0.5, Giants +12.5, Vikings +9

Last Week: 7-7-1 Overall, 1-4 Best Bets, 0-1 Teaser. Florio: 8-6-1

Season: 39-35-2 Overall, 15-10 Best Bets, 4-1 Teaser. Florio: 31-43-2

This is probably the Jaguars best chance for a win, and they know it. They’re going to give it all they have in this one and while they may not pull out the win, they’ll keep it close. Besides, do you want to be watching this game in the 4th quarter and knowing you have your money on Charlie Freakin’ Whitehurst?! Florio pick: Jaguars +4.5

Seahawks -9.5 vs. Cowboys – Seahawks at home are basically an automatic bet at this point. But feel free to throw them into a teaser this week and watch them roll. Florio pick: Seahawks -9.5

Giants +2.5 @ Eagles – This could be the game where Nick Foles gets exposed big time for the world to see. He’s been absolutely terrible this year but his fantasy stats still look good so nobody seems to know or care. Giants win this one. Florio pick: Giants +2.5

Rams +3 vs. 49ers – How bout one more #FadeFlorio for the road? This is going to be a good week. Florio pick: 49ers -3

Best Bets: Bills +1, Vikings -1, Dolphins +3, Steelers PK, Giants +2.5

Teaser of the Week: 3 Team/10 Point – Seahawks +0.5, Giants +12.5, Vikings +9

Last Week: 7-7-1 Overall, 1-4 Best Bets, 0-1 Teaser. Florio: 8-6-1

Season: 39-35-2 Overall, 15-10 Best Bets, 4-1 Teaser. Florio: 31-43-2

 

 

Author: Mike Donnelly

Mike Donnelly is a Staff Writer and life-long Jets fan, who was previously a featured columnist at multiple other New York Jets and fantasy football websites. He lives and works in finance in the NYC area and will help lead our Jets and NFL coverage in 2013.

  • KAsh

    Not to harp, but is it time to #FadeDonnelly?