TOJ Week 5 NFL Gambling Advice and Picks

Mike Donnelly of TOJ gives his NFL Gambling advice and picks for week 5

Well, somehow October and week 5 of the NFL season have arrived. It seems like just yesterday we were watching NFL preseason games complaining about how terrible the games were, and Jets fans were arguing about what kind of role Daryl Richardson would have on the offense. Ahh, sweet memories. On the bright side, the NFL gambling season is going swimmingly here in this space, and the #FadeFlorio campaign is a force of nature that cannot be stopped. After miraculously putting together a winning week in week 3, Mr. PFT fell back onto his face en route to a 5-7-1 week, which puts his record for the season at 23-37-1 against the spread. 

Meanwhile, I’ve been chugging along at 32-28-1 after a 7-5-1 week. Even better, my best bets for the season are now at an impressive 14-6 and teasers are 4-0 on the year. The strategy is simple: Pick the games you love the most. If Florio is on the same side, lower your betting amount. If Florio is opposite, throw a little extra on it. Also, be sure to check out the scores he puts out. If he thinks a game is going to be a blowout, or extremely high scoring, there’s like a 99% chance the opposite will happen. And don’t forget, if you are up in the air about a game, when in doubt, #FadeFlorio. Lets do it.

Vikings +9.5 @ Packers – Um, ok, I was just a little wrong about this one. Here’s a case where I probably should have listened to my own advice. Florio pick: Packers -9.5

Panthers -2 vs. Bears – I don’t love this game and could easily see the Bears winning, but I feel like the Panthers have put themselves into such a hole that they have no choice but to come out swinging and pull out all the stops. Then again, they’re a very crappy team, so we’ll see. (Checks Florio’s pick…) Yep, I’m sticking with the Panthers. Florio pick: Bears +2 (and win outright by 13)

Browns +1 @ Titans – This is the kind of game I don’t even care what Florio has down, because until things change, the Titans are on the permanent Do Not Bet list. My God are they awful. I’ll take Mike Pettine having two weeks to prepare for Charlie Whitehurt, or Jake Locker, or whatever other dogcrap QB they’re throwing out there this week in Tennessee. Florio pick: Browns +1

Rams +7.5 @ Eagles – With the way the Eagles have been playing this just seems like way too many points, doesn’t it? I mean, sure they can rack up points sometimes, but Nick Foles is pretty terrible and people are finally starting to notice. The guy just isn’t a good player. Chip Kelly’s offense is just ridiculously easy to operate, but at the same time it seems as though defenses have started to figure Foles out. I’ll take the points. Florio pick: Eagles -7.5

Giants -4 vs. Falcons – Matt Ryan Outdoors Alert! Matt Ryan Outdoors Alert! Matt Ryan Outdoors Alert! Don’t over think this! Matt Ryan Outdoors Alert! Florio pick: Giants -4

Bucs +11.5 @ Saints – Too many points for a bad team to be laying, and make no mistake about it, the Saints are a baaaad team. That being said, there’s a good chance Drew Brees will continue to be the king of racking up meaningless stats and throw a few 4th quarter TD’s when the game is already over to cover the spread. I hate Drew Brees. Florio pick: Saints -11.5

Texans +6.5 @ Cowboys – The Cowboys have been looking a little too good lately, and to be perfectly honest, I think they’re due for a major fall this week. Not only will Houston cover this game, but there’s a damn good chance they win outright. Florio pick: Cowboys -6.5

Bills +7.5 @ Lions – How sad is it that Kyle Freakin’ Orton represents a major upgrade over EJ Manuel? Nice 1st round pick there, Buffalo. Remember back in week 2 when the Bills started 2-0 and everyone was talking about how magical their crowd was and that they’re going to have a big season and blah blah blah? Well it’s week 5 and Kyle Orton has already been called to save the day. Maybe next year, Bills fans! Florio pick: Lions -7.5

Ravens +3.5 @ Colts 

Jaguars +7 vs. Steelers

Cardinals +8.5 @ Broncos – I really don’t have much to say about any of these games, so I’m just lumping them together. Deal with it. Florio picks: Ravens +3.5, Steelers -7, Broncos -8.5

49ers -5 vs. Chiefs – The Chiefs looked awfully good last week, huh? Well, you have to remember they played against a terrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrible Patriots team so you have to grade that performance on a curve. I think they come back to Earth this week and the 49ers defense puts down the clamps on Alex Smith and Co. Florio pick: Chiefs +5

Jets +7.5 @ Chargers – We have two factors at play here. It’s a letdown spot for the Chargers, and a desperation spot for the Jets. Should be pretty close, and that’s all I’ll say about this one. Florio pick: Chargers -7.5

Bengals PK @ Patriots – The game of the week! Well, it’s not going to be like the best game to watch or most exciting or anything, but it’s the best game to bet on, that’s for sure. Normally, the Patriots in this situation would be an automatic bet. They were humiliated on national TV just a week ago and now the whole world is counting them out. Time for Belichick and Brady to bounce back and give the world the finger, right? Not so fast. Not this year. THIS Patriots team SUCKS. 

Their offensive line is probably the worst in the NFL. Their running backs and wide receivers are still unbelievably terrible. Gronk is hurt. The defense is a joke. Darrelle Revis is bad now, which makes me so incredibly happy. And Tom Brady is so bad that I’m expecting the Pats to start selling replica #12 jerseys with giant forks sticking out of them to make a few extra dollars to offset this dumpster fire of a roster. And now they have the Bengals coming into town off a bye. There will be blood! Florio’s pick: Patriots PK

Redskins +8 vs. Seahawks – The Seahawks on the road are really not that great. Washington had 3 extra days to prepare and after getting humiliated by the Giants of all teams, I think they’ll bounce back strong here and keep this one close. Florio pick: Seahawks -8

Best Bets: Bengals PK, Texans +6.5. Jets +7.5, Ravens +3.5, Redskins +8

Teaser of the Week: 3 Team/10 point: Bengals +10, Jets +17.5, Ravens +13.5

Last Week: 7-5-1 Overall, 3-2 Best Bets, 1-0 Teaser. Florio: 5-7-1

Overall: 32-28-1, 14-6 BB’s, 1-1 Over/Unders 4-0 Teasers. Florio: 23-37-1

Author: Mike Donnelly

Mike Donnelly is a Staff Writer and life-long Jets fan, who was previously a featured columnist at multiple other New York Jets and fantasy football websites. He lives and works in finance in the NYC area and will help lead our Jets and NFL coverage in 2013.

  • Jimmu

    Remember that it is not Romo that the new offense is relying on. Its a run-oriented offense & Hou run D is suspect. PicksPatrick vs Romo? This is the new Dallas.