TOJ Week 4 NFL Gambling Advice and Picks

Mike Donnelly of TOJ breaks down the week 4 NFL gambling lines and makes his picks.

Week 4 of the NFL season has arrived (Where have the past 3 weeks gone?!) and we are at the point of the season where we separate the men from the boys when it comes to NFL gambling. Now is the point where Vegas starts putting out extra sharp lines now that they have a feel for the teams and they start to unleash wild traps and tricks to trip up Joe Public. Well, this year I refuse to be tricked. Not only do I have the power of #FadeFlorio behind me, but I’m feeling pretty confident that I can sniff out these traps and tricks. There are a few games this week that I absolutely love, and it’s time to unload some of our winnings from the first three weeks on some big boy bets. Lets dive in!

Giants +3 @ Redskins – I told you on twitter that I loved this game, and the Giants proved me right. For all the fuss made about Kirk Cousins after he stepped in week 3 and played well in relief, there was a very important fact that got overlooked: Kirk Cousins stinks. This one was easy. Florio pick: Redskins -3

Raiders +4 vs. Dolphins – This game is being held in London, because apparently the people of London can be added to the list of things Roger Goodell hates, just behind women, telling the truth, human decency, and children. I mean seriously, the Raiders vs. the Dolphins is the game the NFL sends over there to try and get the people to get behind the sport and the league? They should just go all out with it to really torture those poor people. Have feces launched into the crowd every time Ryan Tannehill (ProFootballFocus’s #2 overall QB, btw!) throws another incomplete pass, or firebomb all the cars in the parking lot at halftime perhaps. Christ, this is a terrible game. Florio pick: Raiders +4

Packers -1 @ Bears – Love this game. Love it. The Packers have spend the entirety of the past week hearing about how absolutely terrible they are. There are whispers about Aaron Rodgers not being himself, Mike McCarthy suddenly forgetting how to call plays, and Eddie Lacy being absolutely awful. As an Eddie Lacy fantasy football owner, the last part is true, but the Aaron Rodgers being bad part is absolutely not. This smells like a 350-yard, 3 TD game from Mr. Rodgers where he reminds the world he’s pretty damn good. Florio pick: Bears +1

Texans -2.5 vs. Bills – It’s the Ryan Fitzpatrick Revenge Game! Ok, well not really, because Ryan Fitzpatrick sucks, but the Texans are still going to win and cover this game, with or without Arian Foster. The Bills had a miraculous 2-0 start, but then they remembered that they are the Bills and they stink. That will be even more evident this week as EJ Manuel gets swallowed up and spit out by JJ Watt. Florio pick: Bills +2.5

Titans +8.5 @ Colts – Can Charlie Whitehurt really be any worse than Jake Locker? I say no. And come on, should the Colts be laying this may points? They still employ Trent Richardson and Worst Offensive Coordinator Ever Pep Hamilton, so you can’t lay this many points as long as they’re involved. Florio pick: Colts -8.5

Panthers +3 @ Ravens – The Panthers sure did look terrible last week on Sunday night against the Steelers huh? On the game that was nationally televised that everyone saw? Yep, this is the best time to back a team when everyone jumps off their bandwagon. This is a great spot. Oh, and #FadeFlorio… Florio pick: Ravens -3

Jets +1 vs. Lions – Let me put on my teaching cap for a second and give you a little Gambling 101 lesson. Last week I wrote that the Lions should be a huge bet for you at home against the Packers because that would be their early season “Super Bowl” against their rival. I then said to fade them the following week coming off that huge win, especially since they’d be on the road. Well, here we are. And to top it off, the Jets lost in pretty terrible fashion on prime time on Monday night against the Bears. Everyone loves the Lions now, and everyone hates the Jets. And it’s a 1-point spread. This is an easy one. Jets win. Florio pick: Jets +1

Bucs +9 @ Steelers – This game fits all the criteria I usually look for in a game: One team was humiliated, while the other team looked a little too good the week before. This is a prime letdown situation for the Steelers, while the Bucs had three extra days to prepare following their embarrassing loss to Atlanta last Thursday. Mike Glennon taking over at QB should also provide a little bit of a spark, so the Bucs really should cover this game easily, I think. The only problem is that, well, the Bucs are AWWWWWFUL. I’m still taking them. Florio pick: Steelers -9

Jaguars +14 @ Chargers – It’s Bortles Time! And don’t forget to #FadeFlorio when you have doubts about a game. Florio pick: Chargers -14

49ers -5 vs. Eagles – Sanchez Time is approaching. Brace yourselves. Oh, and the 49ers are going to win this game by 10+. They’re desperate, and their defense is going to play really well this week. Florio pick: Eagles +5

Vikings +3 vs. Falcons – Whewwww boy. Here we go! After you win all your 1:00 bets, it’s time to load up and drop a bomb on the Vikings. The Falcons have looked great, especially last week when they scored 8 touchdowns, whereas the Vikings have been mostly crappy. Their tight end is out and their best player is suspended still for beating his child. Their rookie quarterback is making his first career start. And the line is only 3?!? This might be the single most lopsided game we will see all season in terms of which team the majority of bets will be on. Either Vegas has lost their minds and they’re going to lose a ton of money, or the public is going to get slaughtered yet again. Remember, the house always wins. Oh, and that Matt Ryan sucks outdoors. That’s important too. This is a big one. Florio pick: Vikings +3 (this one shocked me)

Cowboys +3 vs. Saints – Drew Brees road alert! Drew Brees road alert! Granted, this one isn’t full blown outdoors, so he won’t totally suck, but Drew Brees on the road is not the same as Home Drew Brees. I’ll take my chances here. Florio pick: Saints -3

Chiefs +3 vs Patriots – I wish this one had gotten up to 3.5, and if you bet this game, I’d suggest buying the hook to 3.5 for sure, but I’ll take my chances on 3 as well. For those that haven’t been paying attention, these are not the same old Patriots that we are used to seeing dominate easily. Tom Brady is not TOM BRADY anymore. He lost a lot off his fastball, he craps his pants in the face of pressure more than ever before, his receivers stink, and his offensive line is a total joke. Things could get ugly for Tommy Boy this week against the Chiefs terrific pass rushers. At least, that’s what I’m hoping for… Florio pick: Chiefs +3

Best Bets: Vikings +3, Packers -1, Jets +1, Panthers +3, Cowboys +3

Teaser of the Week: 3 Team/ 10 point: Vikings +13, Packers +9, Jets +11

Last week: 7-9 Overall, 1-0 Over/Unders, 3-2 Best Bets, 1-0 Teaser. Florio: 9-7

Season: 25-23 Overall, 1-1 O/U, 11-4 Best Bets, 3-0 Teasers. Florio: 18-30 Total

Author: Mike Donnelly

Mike Donnelly is a Staff Writer and life-long Jets fan, who was previously a featured columnist at multiple other New York Jets and fantasy football websites. He lives and works in finance in the NYC area and will help lead our Jets and NFL coverage in 2013.