TOJ Week 3 NFL Gambling Advice and Picks

Don’t look now, but we’re off to a hell of a start here picking games and winning bets here in this space. Of course, that would normally mean I’m due for a huge letdown and a 2-14 week is on deck, but I think this year is different. This year I have my ace in the hole. This year I have Mike Florio of PFT on my side!. As you may remember, for the first two weeks of the season I unveiled my #FadeFlorio campaign, and the very worst of all the terrible NFL writers in the world has not let me down en route to a 9-23 start to the season against the spread. I’m sitting pretty at a respectable 18-14 including 8-2 in my best bets, but it’s getting to the point we should all just blindly fade Florio and collect our winnings. Let’s dive into week 3 and get started.

Bucs +7 @ Falcons As usual, I made this pick on Twitter, and I uhh… I was wrong about this. And to make matters worse, Florio actually was right for a change. Florio pick: Falcons -7

Bills -1 vs. Chargers – This is one of my favorite games of the week. One of my favorite things to look for when picking games is going against a team that is coming off a huge win at home then has to travel the next week. It makes it extra great when that team has to travel cross-country from west to east for a 1:00 start, and that’s exactly what we have going here. Throw in the fact that Florio has the Chargers winning by 9, and we have a Best Bet situation. Florio pick: Chargers +1

Redskins +7 @ Eagles – I have not been too impressed by the Eagles this season, particularly Nick Foles. I can’t wait for Mark Sanchez to get in there and lead the Eagles to the Super Bowl so the entire internet explodes. This just seems like too many points, and when I’m on the fence about a game, it’s best to just #FadeFlorio…. Florio pick: Eagles -7

Giants +1 vs. Texans – A new low for the Giants here as they’re home underdogs against Ryan Fitzpatrick and the league’s worst team from a year ago. Then again, they did just lose at home to Drew Stanton and a team ravaged by injuries, so I guess this line does make sense. I do, however, think the Giants are going to shock the world and actually manage to win a game here so I’m taking them and the one point here. Florio pick: Giants +1

Saints -10.5 vs. Vikings – Absolute massacre coming here. New Orleans is coming off two backbreaking losses and now they get their home opener against a Vikings team reeling from the Adrian Peterson suspension. Yikes. Florio pick: Vikings +7

Rams PK vs. Cowboys – The Rams aren’t sure who will even be their quarterback and this game is sitting at a pick ‘em. That shows you all you need to know about what the Vegas oddsmakers think about this Cowboys team. Here’s a hint: they stink. Florio pick: Cowboys PK

Titans +7 @ Bengals – Seems like a trap line. The Bengals destroyed the Falcons at home last week and the Titans got manhandled by the garbage Cowboys, and the line is only 7? I think this one will be closer than you think. Florio pick: Bengals -7

Browns +1 vs. Ravens – Screw the Ravens. And these Browns are not that bad. That’s some pretty solid analysis right there, huh? Oh, you need just a little more to make up your mind? How bout this: Florio has Baltimore by 4. #FadeFlorio. Florio pick: Ravens -1

Lions -2.5 vs. Packers – I have no question that the Packers are a better team than the Lions, but this game means so much more to the Lions. This is the game they’ve had circled since the schedules came out. This is their early season Super Bowl against the team that has ruled their division for what seems like forever. This is the Lions chance to come out and play a big game and show everyone that they’re “for real” or whatever they want to claim. It will be close, but they’re going to win this game. Oh, and when they do, be sure to bet the house against them next week. Packers +2.5

Bonus pick: Under 53. Florio has the total of this game at a whopping 86, sooo….

Jaguars +7.5 vs. Colts – I’m going to have a hard time ever picking the Colts again after watching the performance Pep Hamilton and his prized focal point of the offense, Trent Richardson, did on Monday night. It was absolutely astonishing to see that freaking moron continue to call plays for Trent Richardson in the biggest spots of the game despite 1) having a better RB in Ahmad Bradshaw available, 2) seeing Trent Richardson fumble twice, and 3) seeing Trent Richardson do his usual Trent Richardson stuff where he sucks and doesn’t do anything good to help the team. So yeah, I’m taking the Jaguars. Screw you, Pep Hamilton, and screw you, Trent Richardson! Florio pick: Jaguars +7.5

Raiders +15.5 @ Patriots – I very well could be wrong about this one, but this could be one of those games where the Patriots know they’re way better than the team they’re playing and they do just the bare minimum to win because they don’t want to show anything they might need against teams that aren’t absolute disgraces. I’ll take the huge amount of points and hope for the best, especially since Florio has the Pats by 31. Florio pick: Patriots -15.5

49ers -2.5 @ Cardinals – I don’t think the 49ers are good this year, but they’re also not the Giants. Drew Stanton is going to struggle big time when he has to face a real team, and the 49ers are going to take advantage. I’m laying the small number. Florio pick: Cardinals +2.5 (and winning outright)

Broncos +5 @ Seahawks – Not confident at all in this one, but I think Peyton has some revenge in mind for Seattle. Florio pick: Seahawks -5

Chiefs +4 @ Dolphins – Hey did you know PFF has Ryan Tannehill as their 2nd best quarterback throughout the first 2 weeks of the season? That’s right, despite the fact he couldn’t get the ball past the 50 yard line last week against Buffalo until the THIRD QUARTER, PFF has him ranked as their #2 QB. Just thought I’d mention that… FLorio pick: Dolphins -4

Steelers +3 @ Panthers – Love this game. Pittsburgh had 3 extra days to prepare for this game after getting killed by Baltimore last Thursday, and you know they’re going to be fully ready for this one. The Panthers just lost their best defensive linemen, Greg Hardy, because he’s a piece of garbage person, and they’re already a little banged up on both sides of the ball. I’m taking the fresher team to cover and win outright. Florio pick: Panthers -3

Jets -2.5 vs. Bears – Putting my Jets homerness to the side for a second, there are a few reasons I think the Jets are going to win this game. First, Chris Ivory. Second, Chris Ivory. Third, Chris Ivory. Fourth, the Jets DL is going to pulverize Jay Cutler all day. Ok, so maybe there was some homerness to those reasons, but here’s another one: The Jets could be without Eric Decker and Dee Milliner, and they lost in crippling fashion last week. Vegas knows all of this, obviously. The Bears, meanwhile, went into San Francisco and beat the 49ers. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery in theory should both be a little more healthy after a week of rest. On paper, the Bears should win this game, right? And they’re still underdogs by 2.5? This is the kind of game Vegas builds new wings on their casinos because of. Take the Jets, and also #FadeFlorio. Florio pick: Bears +2.5

Best Bets: Bills -1, Saints -10.5, Steelers +3, Jets -2.5, Lions -2.5

Teaser of the Week: Saints -4.5 / Steelers +9

Last week: 11-5 Overall, 5-0 Best Bets, 1-0 Teaser. Florio: 4-12

Season: 18-14 Overall, 8-2 Best Bets, 2-0 Teasers. Florio: 9-23

Author: Mike Donnelly

Mike Donnelly is a Staff Writer and life-long Jets fan, who was previously a featured columnist at multiple other New York Jets and fantasy football websites. He lives and works in finance in the NYC area and will help lead our Jets and NFL coverage in 2013.