TOJ Week 2 – NFL Gambling Advice and Picks

Last week as you may remember, I unveiled my plan to pick one absolutely horrible NFL writer each week and post their picks here in this space up against my picks. For week 1, I went with the guy who may very well know the least about football out of them all, PFT honcho, Mike Florio.

I was going to switch it up and use another bozo like Pete Prisco or something for week 2, but after Florio went a whopping 5-11 against the spread last week, I’ve decided to ride him again this week. I made all of my picks that I felt most strongly about on my own, but when in doubt, I’m gonna #FadeFlorio. That has a nice ring to it, doesn’t it? Let’s get started!

Oh, also, before we get going, I just want to sent out a huge middle finger to Chad Henne and the Jacksonville Jaguars for being 11 point underdogs, going up 17-0, and then somehow losing 34-17. I appreciated that one a lot, guys. I’m totally not bitter at all or anything. DAMN IT.

Ravens -2.5 vs. Steelers – After embarrassing myself by picking the Packers in last Thursday’s game, I redeemed myself with this easy winner. I posted this pick on Twitter, as I will every Thursday, and I marked this one as one of my best bets and even managed to win back most of my Jaguars losses from last week. Again, screw you, Chad Henne. Oh, and to make matters better, Florio had the Steelers winning this game outright, putting him at 0-1 for the week already. Florio pick: Steelers +2.5 (loss).

Bills PK vs. Dolphins – Amazingly, one of these teams will be 2-0 to start the season and in at least a tie for first place in the AFC East. I’m taking the Bills here, not only because they are home, but because the Dolphins are probably riding a little bit too high after basically blowing out the Patriots last week. Lost in the final score of that game was the fact that Ryan Tannehill still stinks, so I’m going to need to see him do it on the road before I start taking them in these types of games. Florio pick: Bills PK

Redskins -6 vs. Jaguars – All signs point to taking the points in this game, right? I mean Washington looked pretty terrible last week, and for at least three quarters the Jaguars looked like they might knock off the Eagles in Philly. And the Skins are laying this many points? Hmm… something doesn’t add up. I’m laying the points. Florio pick: Jaguars +6

Cowboys +3.5 @ Titans – Here’s another case of one team looked a little too good last week, and the other looked a little too terrible. I like getting the points in this game, and the fact Florio has the Titans winning by 14 puts it over the top for me. Florio pick: Titans -3.5

Giants +2.5 vs. Cardinals – The Giants are an absolute dumpster fire. I mean, they really aren’t good at any aspect of football right now, but there’s something about Carson Palmer traveling cross country for a 1:00 game that terrifies me. I feel like he will out-Pick-6 Eli in this game and the Giants will win or at least cover. Florio pick: Cardinals -2.5

Patriots -6 @ Vikings – Ok, I had to go back and delete everything I originally had written here before the unfortunate Adrian Peterson news hit. At first, this line was Patriots -3 and I jumped all over it with a personal investment on Thursday. I loved the Pats laying 3 after they got basically humiliated last week. I still like them laying 6, just not nearly as much, especially if Tom Brady still has his head firmly planted up his own ass this week. Florio pick: Vikings +6

Browns +7 vs. Saints – Saints outdoors. Saints outdoors. Saints outdoors. Saints outdoors. Saints outdoors. Saints outdoors. Florio pick: Saints -7

Bengals -5 vs. Falcons – After winning on the Falcons at home last week against the Saints, I’ll happily go against them on the road, outdoors, against a tough team like the Bengals. This is shaping up perfectly. Florio pick: Bengals -5

Panthers -2.5 vs. Lions – I guess I’m supposed to be impressed by the Lions beating up on perhaps the worst team in the NFL last week? Nah. And now they have to travel and play outdoors in Carolina against a terrific defense in a game Cam Newton is returning for? And we only have to lay 2.5?!? *Picks up phone to call bookie* And to make matters even better… Florio pick: Lions +2.5 (and win outright)

Bucs -5.5 vs. Rams – Did you know Shaun Hill might not even play in this game? And that someone named Austin Davis would be taking the snaps? AND Austin Davis would have Brian Schottenheimer in his ear calling the plays? LOL. Feel free to put the Bucs into any of your ML parlays or teasers, and be sure to try and pick up their defense for fantasy football purposes. Florio pick: Rams +5.5

Chargers +5.5 vs. Seahawks – Don’t feel great about this one, but the Seahawks are a much different team on the road than they are at home. The Chargers badly need a win here to avoid 0-2, but the Seahawks did have three extra days to prepare for this one. When in doubt, though, #FadeFlorio… Florio pick: Seahawks -5.5

Raiders +3 vs. Houston – Derek Carr actually didn’t look too bad last week before Rex Ryan’s defense clamped down and unleashed the best DL in the NFL on him. Going against JJ Watt will be no picnic, but I think the Raiders come out and play well in their home opener. Florio pick: Raiders +3

Jets +9 @ Packers – I know the narrative in this game is “LOL Jets have no corners how can they stop Rodgers?!”, and there is certainly some merit to that, I suppose. I prefer to flip the script, however, and ask how in the hell are the Packers going to block Mo Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson, Quinton Coples, Damon Harrison, Jason Babin, and the rest of the Jets front 7? Rodgers is going to be running for his life all day long. FURTHERMORE, the Packers defense is an abomination. Did you see them gashed repeatedly by Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks? Well, here comes Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson. Jets cover and will be in this one until the end. Florio pick: Packers -9

Broncos -12.5 vs. Chiefs – This seems like too many points, but my God the Chiefs are going to be awful this year. Anyway, I’d like to use this space to talk about the movie Draft Day. I watched it the other day for the first time, and I gotta say… it was awesome. I read all of the reviews from the NFL writers on twitter and such who think they’re standup comedians and SERIOUS FOOTBALL MEN, so they could never enjoy a movie like that. Well, those guys are freaking idiots. It’s a MOVIE, not a documentary about the NFL draft. Just because you know about trade charts and draft values and things doesn’t mean you can’t sit back and enjoy a movie. It was awesome and I look forward to watching it on HBO approximately 75 times over the next two years. Kevin Costner rules. Florio pick: Broncos -12.5

Bears +7.5 @ 49ers – This one could really come back to bite me if Brandon Marshall and/or Alshon Jeffery don’t suit up on Sunday night. This is still too many points and probably an overreaction based on each team’s week 1 performance. Florio pick: 49ers -7.5

Colts -3 vs. Eagles – Big game at home for the Colts who need this game to avoid 0-2. I think they’ll get it. Florio pick: Colts -3

Best Bets: Panthers -2.5, Redskins -6, Jets +9, Bengals -5

Teaser of the week: 3 Team/10 point: Broncos -2.5, Bengals +5, Patriots +4

Last Week: Me: 7-9 Overall, 3-2 Best Bets, 1-0 Teaser, Florio: 5-11

Author: Mike Donnelly

Mike Donnelly is a Staff Writer and life-long Jets fan, who was previously a featured columnist at multiple other New York Jets and fantasy football websites. He lives and works in finance in the NYC area and will help lead our Jets and NFL coverage in 2013.